If we beat the Nuggets, does Terry stay?

[Natebishop3]

I hate when people use a vegas win total as some sort of barometer for success. It's based on what the general public thinks and is designed to split votes. The general public doesnt know shit about the Blazers compared to other Blazer fans. Quit using it as some sort of barometer for success.

I prefer the horoscopes.

 

[Fairly-Hard]

I hate when people use a vegas win total as some sort of barometer for success. It's based on what the general public thinks and is designed to split votes. The general public doesnt know shit about the Blazers compared to other Blazer fans. Quit using it as some sort of barometer for success.

Some might disagree with you here. Vegas Odds are not really based on what the "Public" thinks at all. It's also based on votes not designed to "Split" votes.
Vegas odds are correct much more of the time than wrong for sure.

 

[BonesJones]

Some might disagree with you here. Vegas Odds are not really based on what the "Public" thinks at all. It's also based on votes not designed to "Split" votes.
Vegas odds are correct much more of the time than wrong for sure.

Vegas wants action on both sides. They don't want the financial risk of having 80% of votes on one side. Vegas gets things wrong as much as they get it right, but they're not in the business of getting things right, they're in the business of making money. If you use "Vegas" as if it's some ever-knowing God who knows more about teams than their own fans and are trying to make correct predictions for the sake of being right, than I cant take your argument seriously.

 

[Phatguysrule]

Geoff refused to fire Rick and resigned over it.

I vaguely remember that now... Wow, that's been a long time.

Petrie was right. Never should have fired Adelman.

 

[Phatguysrule]

A compromise could be to hire Boylen (or some other defensive minded coach) full time as an assistant and let him run the defense. But this hypothetical scenario should only come into play if Portland advances past Denver.

I also highly doubt Stotts would go into next season as a lame duck. If he comes back he will get an extension.

I'm good with this... Though I think it's a bit over due...

 

[THE HCP]

 

[Fairly-Hard]

Vegas wants action on both sides. They don't want the financial risk of having 80% of votes on one side. Vegas gets things wrong as much as they get it right, but they're not in the business of getting things right, they're in the business of making money. If you use "Vegas" as if it's some ever-knowing God who knows more about teams than their own fans and are trying to make correct predictions for the sake of being right, than I cant take your argument seriously.

I can understand your point. But seriously Vegas had the Blazers at 41.5 wins and 6th seed.
Now if you want to look at so called experts at ESPN you can make your own assessment?

Vegas makes money by being right. Giving action has nothing to do with wins and losses it’s got everything to do with picking who wins and by how much.
By the way you are way way off saying they get it wrong as much as right. That just simply isn’t true at all. They are not in the business of being wrong as much as they are right.

 

[BonesJones]

I can understand your point. But seriously Vegas had the Blazers at 41.5 wins and 6th seed.
Now if you want to look at so called experts at ESPN you can make your own assessment?

Vegas makes money by being right. Giving action has nothing to do with wins and losses it’s got everything to do with picking who wins and by how much.
By the way you are way way off saying they get it wrong as much as right. That just simply isn’t true at all. They are not in the business of being wrong as much as they are right.

Vegas makes money off of bettors. The closer that Vegas can get to a 50/50 split of bettors, the closer they get to maximizing their chances of gain and minimizing their chances of loss. The line is set to get as close to a 50/50 split of bets as possible, for that reason. That's how over/under betting works.

 

[SharpesTriumph]

I hate when people use a vegas win total as some sort of barometer for success. It's based on what the general public thinks and is designed to split votes. The general public doesnt know shit about the Blazers compared to other Blazer fans. Quit using it as some sort of barometer for success.

If you have some pre season insight that is significantly better than vegas win totals why don't you put your money where your mouth is and bet on the outliers?

 

[Fairly-Hard]

Vegas makes money off of bettors. The closer that Vegas can get to a 50/50 split of bettors, the closer they get to maximizing their chances of gain and minimizing their chances of loss. The line is set to get as close to a 50/50 split of bets as possible, for that reason. That's how over/under betting works.

Maybe the communication here is off a bit? The betting sets odds. Over and under is is a product of odds.
Somehow this conversation has gone from saying Vegas is wrong as much as they are right to you explaining the way sports betting works. I assure you I understand the way sports betting works.

 

[Tince]

I hate when people use a vegas win total as some sort of barometer for success. It's based on what the general public thinks and is designed to split votes. The general public doesnt know shit about the Blazers compared to other Blazer fans. Quit using it as some sort of barometer for success.

What you said about Vegas wanting even money is more or less correct. However, gambling is a massive industry and with anaytics even more accessible, the sportsbooks spend a lot of money to make sure they don't put out massively flawed lines because they would be exposing themselves to having drastically move the line, and that is where they could get hammered. They don't worry about $20 bets made by the public nearly as much as $10,000 bets made by the smart money... the smart money attempts to remove all emotion when they make their bets, it's all probability.

Personally, I would lean much more heavily to the Vegas line than say a Blazers message board poll in attempting to determine the true consensus of what the Blazers were expected to do this year.

 

[Tince]

If you have some pre season insight that is significantly better than vegas win totals why don't you put your money where your mouth is and bet on the outliers?

This!

If I felt the Blazers were grossly underrated every single year I would be putting big bucks on the over season after season. Having kept close tabs on the Blazers season over/under win total for 15+ years, I have not be able to determine a strong bias one direction or the other. Vegas has been way off on a few occasions, but not consistently in the same direction.

 

[BonesJones]

If you have some pre season insight that is significantly better than vegas win totals why don't you put your money where your mouth is and bet on the outliers?

Wouldve won the over despite the injuries and poor coaching, so I guess I was right about the talent being underrated.

Vegas over/under totals is a reflection of what the general public thinks. I know about the Blazers than the general public. I think that's the case for everyone in here. Why the hell are we trying to make points based off what the general public thinks when were all smarter than that? That's my point.

 

[Wizard Mentor]

You mean if the fans had a say in it. But how do we know how Jody feels? My guess is that Neil will give his recommendation to her and she (and whoever is advising her) will decide. I doubt Neils goes Geoff Petrie on her.

There was a report that Jody was upset about our defensive ranking in the middle of the season. It never improved.

 

[Tince]

There was a report that Jody was upset about our defensive ranking in the middle of the season. It never improved.

Wonder if that means Dame/CJ are getting traded?

 

[blazerkor]

Vegas makes money off of bettors. The closer that Vegas can get to a 50/50 split of bettors, the closer they get to maximizing their chances of gain and minimizing their chances of loss. The line is set to get as close to a 50/50 split of bets as possible, for that reason. That's how over/under betting works.

Yeah, so with futures bets and moneylines in general the experts in Vegas get it as close to right as possible. So if they're giving Denver in 6 the best odds and therefore the worst payout, they really do think that it's going to be Denver in 6 and they have people that have scrutinized our team just as much as you and Denver just as much as you have our team. These odds makers for big sports books are some of the smartest and most well informed people in sports.

 

[Strenuus]

Wonder if that means Dame/CJ are getting traded?

Not that your post is serious, but there does have to be a legit discussion about trading CJ. Is CJ a better player than Norman Powell? Yes, individually he is.... at least on one side of the ball.

Norman Powell is a MUCH better fit for this team. Trading CJ for extra wing help or a functional PF, would do WONDERS for this team AND get that God awful contract out of here. That contract is going to be hard to sell.

But in the end, Norman Powell is the best fit for this team. Trading CJ would be the best move for this franchise and if you can... Powell re-signs.

 

[BonesJones]

Not that your post is serious, but there does have to be a legit discussion about trading CJ. Is CJ a better player than Norman Powell? Yes, individually he is.... at least on one side of the ball.

Norman Powell is a MUCH better fit for this team. Trading CJ for extra wing help or a functional PF, would do WONDERS for this team AND get that God awful contract out of here. That contract is going to be hard to sell.

But in the end, Norman Powell is the best fit for this team. Trading CJ would be the best move for this franchise and if you can... Powell re-signs.

Awful contract? Lmao. Not at all.

 

[BonesJones]

Yeah, so with futures bets and moneylines in general the experts in Vegas get it as close to right as possible. So if they're giving Denver in 6 the best odds and therefore the worst payout, they really do think that it's going to be Denver in 6 and they have people that have scrutinized our team just as much as you and Denver just as much as you have our team. These odds makers for big sports books are some of the smartest and most well informed people in sports.

I'll ask you this: what makes the sportsbook more money? Getting a 50/50 split on action or being half a win off but having 60% call it correctly?

 

[Hoopguru]

Wonder if that means Dame/CJ are getting traded?

They will probably follow Stotts to his next team once their contracts up. Lol

 

[Strenuus]

Awful contract? Lmao. Not at all.

Let's put it this way, he's making a lot of money that I don't know if other teams want to pay him, thus lowering his value.

 

[blazerkor]

I'll ask you this: what makes the sportsbook more money? Getting a 50/50 split on action or being half a win off but having 60% call it correctly?

The bets you're talking about right now are the spread and over/under. They want those to come in at around 50/50. The moneyline and futures are both designed to pay very little for the outcome that the book sees as likely and tantalize bettors with big opportunities to win or low odds on results these experts think are highly unlikely. They love it when a ton of people (>60%) take a long shot. They do not want people to take bets that they're paying back less than the bet. They are still hedging so they do want some balance but futures and moneylines are very different games than what you're describing.

 

[BonesJones]

Let's put it this way, he's making a lot of money that I don't know if other teams want to pay him, thus lowering his value.

He averaged 23 & 5 this year on solid efficiency. Gonna be hard to find a guy doing that that isn't on a max contract or a rookie contract.

 

[BonesJones]

The bets you're talking about right now are the spread and over/under. They want those to come in at around 50/50. The moneyline and futures are both designed to pay very little for the outcome that the book sees as likely and tantalize bettors with big opportunities to win or low odds on results these experts think are highly unlikely. They love it when a ton of people (>60%) take a long shot. They do not want people to take bets that they're paying back less than the bet. They are still hedging so they do want some balance but futures and moneylines are very different games than what you're describing.

Gotcha, it makes sense now.

Isnt it strange that to make a point about basketball, people bring up sports betting instead of actual basketball?

 

[blazerkor]

Gotcha, it makes sense now.

Isnt it strange that to make a point about basketball, people bring up sports betting instead of actual basketball?

It is strange. Referring to on court play would seem to be a better place to go or even the insane amount of statistics that are out there. I do think however when judging something as subjective as sports a lot of people will look a lot of different places to validate their take. So if the only place that they can find that supports their opinion is a betting line... I guess in that case it would make sense that they would feel they had to use that.

I would think that it would be the last place a person would look to validate their opinion and hopefully they would trust their own knowledge first.

 

[Strenuus]

He averaged 23 & 5 this year on solid efficiency. Gonna be hard to find a guy doing that that isn't on a max contract or a rookie contract.

Fair.

I said cj is the better player, but Powell is the better fit. There's gotta be a change and I think CJ is the one that needs to be traded.

 

[Fairly-Hard]

Wouldve won the over despite the injuries and poor coaching, so I guess I was right about the talent being underrated.

Vegas over/under totals is a reflection of what the general public thinks. I know about the Blazers than the general public. I think that's the case for everyone in here. Why the hell are we trying to make points based off what the general public thinks when were all smarter than that? That's my point.

Alright. I can go with that. Though i doubt i am much smarter than the average fan that follows the team closely?

 

[BonesJones]

Alright. I can go with that. Though i doubt i am much smarter than the average fan that follows the team closely?

By following the team at least a little bit you're already ahead of the average member of the general public.

 

[BonesJones]

Fair.

I said cj is the better player, but Powell is the better fit. There's gotta be a change and I think CJ is the one that needs to be traded.

I don't disagree with the rest of your post (even though I don't think there's good options to fit what you want to trade C.J. for). It just boggles my mind when people say he's a terrible contract.

 

[Strenuus]

I don't disagree with the rest of your post (even though I don't think there's good options to fit what you want to trade C.J. for). It just boggles my mind when people say he's a terrible contract.

Boggle is a fun game.

And yeah, I don't know what we can get thats fair value. It sucks. Cause it's the clear option with Powell here to show us CJ ain't the answer.