Interesting mostly unbiased view of the Blazers

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the tsherkin guy knows his stuff and writes a lot. I like it.

My views on trading LMA are well-known, so I think it's interesting that the casual RealGM observer seems to think that a) as currently constructed, there's not much of a chance that they can overtake OKC, LAC, SAS (heck, even DEN) in the next 3 years and/or b) that we "have to hit a home run" in the draft to have a shot.

The one thing that might sway me into keeping LMA is that, even though he's just entering his prime, he's not often injured and he's more Dirk than Shaq. He can probably stay in pretty good shape and shoot J's until he's 35. If he'll keep signing in Portland, that could be useful. I don't know that that's either wise, or if he'd do it.
 
BrianFromWA said:
My views on trading LMA are well-known, so I think it's interesting that the casual RealGM observer seems to think that a) as currently constructed, there's not much of a chance that they can overtake OKC, LAC, SAS (heck, even DEN) in the next 3 years and/or b) that we "have to hit a home run" in the draft to have a shot.
Click to expand...

Why is that interesting? That seems like it would be the opinion of any casual NBA fan.
 
that it's 180 out from a lot of people in here. Is that ignorance of the team on their part, or abject homerism on the part of those who think LMA's leading us to the promised land?
 
Do people think he's leading the team to the promised land, or is that a manufactured argument made?

It's true , the team needs a superstar, but they're not likely to get one by trading LaMarcus
 
I liked this comment:

If Leonard develops into a quality NBA center, then I think you guys could have a contending team in a few seasons. You'd be more like a Pistons style no-star championship level team if it does happen, since I don't think any of your guys are elite players. Lillard and Aldrich could definitely be multi-time all-stars, but we aren't talking superstars here. Batum is very good, but I doubt he ever makes an all-star team.

I think one of the keys is Leonard. If we retain JJ and if Leonard pans oout we'd have a pretty darn good front court. Then some depth at PG & SG and we can be a pretty good team.
 
BrianFromWA said:
the tsherkin guy knows his stuff and writes a lot. I like it.

My views on trading LMA are well-known, so I think it's interesting that the casual RealGM observer seems to think that a) as currently constructed, there's not much of a chance that they can overtake OKC, LAC, SAS (heck, even DEN) in the next 3 years and/or b) that we "have to hit a home run" in the draft to have a shot.

The one thing that might sway me into keeping LMA is that, even though he's just entering his prime, he's not often injured and he's more Dirk than Shaq. He can probably stay in pretty good shape and shoot J's until he's 35. If he'll keep signing in Portland, that could be useful. I don't know that that's either wise, or if he'd do it.
Click to expand...

But will what you receive for LMA enable Portland overtake those teams? I doubt it. Again you have to hit a home run in the draft to do so. I am not sure you can really plan more than 3 years out. Unless yo have a team of rookies.

I am not against trading LMA if you get a sure thing in return. (Like the #1 pick on draft day-and even that is a gamble)
But I think we spend to much time creating fantasy scenarios and then get disappointed when they don't happen.
 
I'm surprised how little upside Lillard gets credit for in that forum. Seems like most think he's about as good as he'll ever get, which is a strange way to view an NBA rookie PG. When was the last time a stud rookie PG never advanced much? Steve Francis or Damon Stoudamire?

I remember a lot of people (even on this forum) felt the same about Roy in his rookie year, though, so maybe it's hard to imagine a rookie guard with few glaring flaws drastically improving.

Interestingly, the argument used to be that he played at Weber State, so his stats are overrated and he isn't really NBA caliber. Now the argument seems to be instead that he's a 4 year college player, so he came out of Weber State fully polished (?!) and has limited upside.

Personally, I feel like Weber State did a pretty crummy job of preparing him for elite-level defenses, and it gave him absolutely no experience in learning how to guard guys like Chris Paul or Kyrie Irving. He's learning a lot on the job this year, much like a lot of non-4 year PG's.
 
Realistically, I think Portland has 5 more years with LA in his prime.....assuming he re-signs here. I have long been a proponent of trading LA for younger pieces that better fit our core age, but TOTALLY understand the people who think it is insane to trade a 27 year old all star PF in his prime. Hypothetically, the deal we would need would be a price other teams would likely not pay. I mean is

Jeremy Lamb, Perry Jones, Kevin Martin and Toronto's and OKC first enough? You decent prospects and a but load of cap space plus a lottery pick?

Okafor, Vesely, Seraphin, Crawford, their pick...3rd right now?

Gortat, Morris, Phoenix first (5 right now) and LAL's pick (13 right now)

Milsap, Heyward and Utah's two 1sts

Hibbert, Hansbrough

Sanders, Henson, Udrih

Not a lot out there to "guarantee" future success


I am not advocating any of these, just pointing out some deals that wouldn't make me cringe. Not saying the other teams would do them either
 
mook said:
I'm surprised how little upside Lillard gets credit for in that forum. Seems like most think he's about as good as he'll ever get, which is a strange way to view an NBA rookie PG. When was the last time a stud rookie PG never advanced much? Steve Francis or Damon Stoudamire?

I remember a lot of people (even on this forum) felt the same about Roy in his rookie year, though, so maybe it's hard to imagine a rookie guard with few glaring flaws drastically improving.

Interestingly, the argument used to be that he played at Weber State, so his stats are overrated and he isn't really NBA caliber. Now the argument seems to be instead that he's a 4 year college player, so he came out of Weber State fully polished (?!) and has limited upside.

Personally, I feel like Weber State did a pretty crummy job of preparing him for elite-level defenses, and it gave him absolutely no experience in learning how to guard guys like Chris Paul or Kyrie Irving. He's learning a lot on the job this year, much like a lot of non-4 year PG's.
Click to expand...

The one thing I have yet to see from Lillard, who I believe is going to be a multi time all-star, is the ability to create for other players. He's a rookie, I get that, just pointing it out
 
Realistically?

One team wins the championship. I think the Heat are significantly better than the 2nd best team right now and should win it for the next season or two or three. So nobody else really has a chance, and I think no matter what 5 guys you took from the rest of the league to form a team.

Who else really is there? OKC? Clippers? Those two teams have some great players, but no LeBron. Yeah, I think LeBron is that good right now.

Miami could be beat if they suffer the right injury or two.

So what, really, should be the plan?

I don't see why you get rid of your best player to become deeper and weaker.

Give Lillard a chance. He's only a rookie.
 
I thought it was funny that one guy said Lillard is "undersized"....

The guy is 6'3, 195 lbs according to NBA.com.

How is that undersized?
 
Mediocre Man said:
He said undersized 2 I believe
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Here's the thing; is Lillard a pure point guard? Not in the sense that some people would define it, but I would argue that the point guard position has evolved over the last 20 or 30 years and "pure" point guards are virtually non-existent at this point. Look at the top point guards in the league:

Derrick Rose
Russell Westbrook
Deron Williams
Chris Paul
Kyrie Irving

Of those, only Chris Paul would probably fit in the old school concept of a point guard. I'd argue that Irving is even more of a shooting guard than Lillard. I think Damian is underrated for his ability to make plays and I think he'll get better as he gets older. He has the capabilities, otherwise he wouldn't have 12 assist games. But yes, he is a point guard with a natural scoring ability, and I'm fine with that. Actually, that's why I don't have a problem with Batum being more of a playmaker. If Nic wants to rack up trip-dubs while Damian averages 20+ ppg for his career, that's fine by me.
 
Natebishop3 said:
Here's the thing; is Lillard a pure point guard? Not in the sense that some people would define it, but I would argue that the point guard position has evolved over the last 20 or 30 years and "pure" point guards are virtually non-existent at this point. Look at the top point guards in the league:

Derrick Rose
Russell Westbrook
Deron Williams
Chris Paul
Kyrie Irving

Of those, only Chris Paul would probably fit in the old school concept of a point guard. I'd argue that Irving is even more of a shooting guard than Lillard. I think Damian is underrated for his ability to make plays and I think he'll get better as he gets older. He has the capabilities, otherwise he wouldn't have 12 assist games. But yes, he is a point guard with a natural scoring ability, and I'm fine with that. Actually, that's why I don't have a problem with Batum being more of a playmaker. If Nic wants to rack up trip-dubs while Damian averages 20+ ppg for his career, that's fine by me.
Click to expand...

Me as well. I wasn't complaining. I think he will end up in the 20/8 range for his career. Best we've ever had, if he stays healthy?
 
Natebishop3 said:
Here's the thing; is Lillard a pure point guard? Not in the sense that some people would define it, but I would argue that the point guard position has evolved over the last 20 or 30 years and "pure" point guards are virtually non-existent at this point. Look at the top point guards in the league:

Derrick Rose
Russell Westbrook
Deron Williams
Chris Paul
Kyrie Irving

Of those, only Chris Paul would probably fit in the old school concept of a point guard. I'd argue that Irving is even more of a shooting guard than Lillard. I think Damian is underrated for his ability to make plays and I think he'll get better as he gets older. He has the capabilities, otherwise he wouldn't have 12 assist games. But yes, he is a point guard with a natural scoring ability, and I'm fine with that. Actually, that's why I don't have a problem with Batum being more of a playmaker. If Nic wants to rack up trip-dubs while Damian averages 20+ ppg for his career, that's fine by me.
Click to expand...

Smaler centers, larger PG's... the league is trending more towards generic types.
 
Nate Archibald scored 30PPG with 15APG one season.

That was before the PG position evolved?

How about Kevin Johnson, Gus Williams, Gary Payton, John Stockton, etc. The list is pretty big. Of guys who get lots of points and assists.

Magic Johnson, Pippen, Big O, etc. when you include the tall PGs.
 
Mediocre Man said:
Me as well. I wasn't complaining. I think he will end up in the 20/8 range for his career. Best we've ever had, if he stays healthy?
Click to expand...

Oh, I wasn't saying you were MM. I was just giving my opinion on the topic. I just think it's interesting because there will always be that old opinion that scoring point guards are not really point guards at all, but how many successful pass-first point guards are in the league?

Chris Paul.

It starts and ends with him, I believe. Ricky Rubio is a great passer, but what else? He can't shoot, he can't defend, so at what point do you say, "yeah he's a great passer but he's hurting us with his shooting and defense." Some would probably point to Steve Nash, but Nash was also a shooter. A really good shooter. If you look around the league, there's probably Rajon Rondo, but he's another guy that has a questionable jumpshot, but he makes up for that with some very good defense and rebounding. If he wasn't a headcase, he could be the best point guard in the league.

I'm hesitant to throw Deron Williams out there, because while he puts up good assists numbers, I think he also has a tendency to look for his own shot. Shit, last year he attempted over 17 FGA a game. That's two more per game than Lillard. Right now he's around 13 FGA per game. I suspect that Lillard will eventually settle down and average between 12 and 13 FGA per game, which incidentally is right around where Nash was during his best days in Phoenix.
 
Denny Crane said:
Nate Archibald scored 30PPG with 15APG one season.

That was before the PG position evolved?

How about Kevin Johnson, Gus Williams, Gary Payton, John Stockton, etc. The list is pretty big. Of guys who get lots of points and assists.

Magic Johnson, Pippen, Big O, etc. when you include the tall PGs.
Click to expand...

I think Kevin Johnson and Gary Payton were part of the reason why it evolved... but you think John Stockton was a score-first point guard?
 
BrianFromWA said:
that it's 180 out from a lot of people in here. Is that ignorance of the team on their part, or abject homerism on the part of those who think LMA's leading us to the promised land?
Click to expand...

It was funny because this was a big case for dirk throughout his career. Obviously Aldridge isn't as good as dirk in his prime, but the concept is the same.

What i find interesting is Aldridge never had a fully functioning team, yet he is counted out. Does anyone know when was the last time Aldridge had a healthy core and bench throughout his career? Yeah thats right, NEVER!
 
mook said:
I'm surprised how little upside Lillard gets credit for in that forum. Seems like most think he's about as good as he'll ever get, which is a strange way to view an NBA rookie PG. When was the last time a stud rookie PG never advanced much? Steve Francis or Damon Stoudamire?

I remember a lot of people (even on this forum) felt the same about Roy in his rookie year, though, so maybe it's hard to imagine a rookie guard with few glaring flaws drastically improving.

Interestingly, the argument used to be that he played at Weber State, so his stats are overrated and he isn't really NBA caliber. Now the argument seems to be instead that he's a 4 year college player, so he came out of Weber State fully polished (?!) and has limited upside.

Personally, I feel like Weber State did a pretty crummy job of preparing him for elite-level defenses, and it gave him absolutely no experience in learning how to guard guys like Chris Paul or Kyrie Irving. He's learning a lot on the job this year, much like a lot of non-4 year PG's.
Click to expand...

Repp'd! Couldnt have said it better myself!
 
Natebishop3 said:
I think Kevin Johnson and Gary Payton were part of the reason why it evolved... but you think John Stockton was a score-first point guard?
Click to expand...

Sure Stockton was a score-first PG. Pick and Roll. He'd shoot if the pick worked.
 
magnifier661 said:
It was funny because this was a big case for dirk throughout his career. Obviously Aldridge isn't as good as dirk in his prime, but the concept is the same.

What i find interesting is Aldridge never had a fully functioning team, yet he is counted out. Does anyone know when was the last time Aldridge had a healthy core and bench throughout his career? Yeah thats right, NEVER!
Click to expand...

Yes, but Dirk is someone you could build around in his prime. The guy was unconscious. I hated playing against him because he was so difficult to defend. Aldridge is, arguably, not someone you can build around. He doesn't have the right frame of mind for it. The only time he has that killer instinct is when someone pisses him off, which is rarely, or when he plays against his homestate teams. Obviously he puts up good numbers, and he's solid, but is he the guy that you know you can count on when your team needs points? When Roy was healthy, he was that guy. He was one of the best in the league at it. Aldridge is not that guy. He has never been that guy and I don't think he'll ever be that guy, and that's fine. I'm just hoping that Lillard will take over that role.
 
Denny Crane said:
Sure Stockton was a score-first PG. Pick and Roll. He'd shoot if the pick worked.
Click to expand...

.... Denny I don't see how you can think this.

Stockton never averaged even 12 FGA per game. His highest scoring average was 17 ppg for three years in '88 through '91. After that he never averaged over 15 ppg. During that same stretch, however, he was averaging right around 14 assists per game. The guy is the quintessential pass first point guard.
 
Natebishop3 said:
Yes, but Dirk is someone you could build around in his prime. The guy was unconscious. I hated playing against him because he was so difficult to defend. Aldridge is, arguably, not someone you can build around. He doesn't have the right frame of mind for it. The only time he has that killer instinct is when someone pisses him off, which is rarely, or when he plays against his homestate teams. Obviously he puts up good numbers, and he's solid, but is he the guy that you know you can count on when your team needs points? When Roy was healthy, he was that guy. He was one of the best in the league at it. Aldridge is not that guy. He has never been that guy and I don't think he'll ever be that guy, and that's fine. I'm just hoping that Lillard will take over that role.
Click to expand...

Aldridge needs Roy or Lillard. They are exactly the type of players to play batman. Unfortunately Roy will never play effectively again, but Lillard is developing into that go to guy.

I understand many dont believe Lillard will be a superstar, but i personally think he will. I think the core of Aldridge, Lillard and Batum is definitely a core that can compete with Durrant, Westbrook and Martin or paul, griffin and jordan.
 
magnifier661 said:
Aldridge needs Roy or Lillard. They are exactly the type of players to play batman. Unfortunately Roy will never play effectively again, but Lillard is developing into that go to guy.

I understand many dont believe Lillard will be a superstar, but i personally think he will. I think the core of Aldridge, Lillard and Batum is definitely a core that can compete with Durrant, Westbrook and Martin or paul, griffin and jordan.
Click to expand...

I'm willing to bet Kevin Martin won't be back next year for OKC, and if I was the Clippers I would be worried about Chris Paul's knees (but maybe that's just the Blazer fan in me talking).
 
Natebishop3 said:
.... Denny I don't see how you can think this.

Stockton never averaged even 12 FGA per game. His highest scoring average was 17 ppg for three years in '88 through '91. After that he never averaged over 15 ppg. During that same stretch, however, he was averaging right around 14 assists per game. The guy is the quintessential pass first point guard.
Click to expand...

17 PPG is 1 point less than Lillard averages.
17 PPG is 1 point more than Deron Williams averages.
17 PPG is 1 point more than Chris Paul averages.

That's 3 of 5 on your list. A 4th one is injured, but took about 25% of his team's shots as their primary scorer.
 
Gentlemen! We have all watched this team play with historically the worst bench to ever play the game. Just imagine if we actually had a bench? What if we had that go to scorer 6th man? What if we have that defensive minded center that can protect the paint? What if we had that key reserve pg that can run plays without turning the ball over?

You act as though this team cant get significantly better with a few key pieces. Lets wait until oshley has a full summer and cap space to build a contender. Then if next year isnt panning out, we can make these drastic changes. Until then, stop jumping the gun because you believe the sky is falling.

Aldridge isnt the batman, lillard is. Lillard needs an aldridge to open the paint for his penetration.
 
Natebishop3 said:
I'm willing to bet Kevin Martin won't be back next year for OKC, and if I was the Clippers I would be worried about Chris Paul's knees (but maybe that's just the Blazer fan in me talking).
Click to expand...

Exactly! The only teams i would be concerned with is houston, golden state and denver. They are the only ones that can keep their entire team together for years. Spurs and clippers are in a win now mode. They have a two year window.
 
Denny Crane said:
17 PPG is 1 point less than Lillard averages.
17 PPG is 1 point more than Deron Williams averages.
17 PPG is 1 point more than Chris Paul averages.

That's 3 of 5 on your list. A 4th one is injured, but took about 25% of his team's shots as their primary scorer.
Click to expand...

And during those three years he averaged

11.3 FGA
11.8 FGA
11.9 FGA

He was just a very efficient shooter.

53.8%
51.4%
50%

We're looking at FGA as the main point here.

Lillard 15.5 FGA
Paul 12.0 FGA (has never averaged under 12 FGA, while Stockton never averaged over 11 FGA in his career)
Deron 13.5 FGA (although he has averaged many more FGA in his career)
 
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