Is Collins the missing ingredient?

[Orion Bailey]

I agree with your assessment 100%. Buck >>> Collins.

Neither had the ability to take a team over the top when combined with only 1 all-star player.

obviously buck at the stage he was traded is better than the collins we have seen so far so of course buck would look better at glance.

Clyde all star years: 86’, 88-94, 96-97

porter all star years: 91’,93’

Duck all star years: 89’, 91’

buck traded to portland in 89’.

Buck was traded to us the same year we had two all stars. However the previous and following year, only Clyde made it. How do we k now buck arriving helped duck make the all star team in 89’?
Then in 91’ we had three all stars.


my point being sometimes that role player elevates others into all star contention, like a guy who may be close like cj may then make it because of that situation, but wouldn't without the right role player next to him.

How do we know collins doesnt make others better, good enough to be an all star?

or become good enough to do so?

we dont. And we probably never will because the op jinxed his ass.

 

[James lamphear]

Well stats don't tell the whole story of the player. Zach did little things that help us win and plus he was very good making people miss around the rim and yes sometimes he was call for a foul but he did what he supposed to do and contest shots. Covington and Jones are good help defender but Zach is to but he also pretty good on the ball defender. Is Zach the answer no but he really miss a guy that will contest someone at the rim. But until Dame and CJ is help accountable for there defense then you probably won't be very good defense team. Yes Melo and Kanter can't play defense we already know this there both offense players. But until we change how we play both ends both ends we continue to come on the wrong side of things. I hate to tell you guys the ways we play under Stotts have caught up to us. You just can't change coach you also have to change some of the players to be able to run a different system we must separate Dame or CJ because there going change they play with a different coach because there already sit in there ways.

 

[Tince]

This isnt accurate. Neither porter or duck made the all star team until after buck arrived.
Clyde was the only all star until 91’.

Whos to say with a healthy collins, Nurk and cj are good enough to make the all star game with dame?

I must have worded my response poorly or I don't understand your original point. Are you suggesting that a healthy Collins can turn two current players on our roster (CJ and Nurk) into all-stars by him being such a great role player?

The 89-92 Blazers basically had 3 all-stars on it, plus Buck & Kersey.

The 2021 Blazers have 1 all-star.

My opinion is that a role player won't "put a team over the top" unless is has multiple all-stars. This is based off of the roster of a large majority of NBA championship rosters.

 

[Tince]

obviously buck at the stage he was traded is better than the collins we have seen so far so of course buck would look better at glance.

Clyde all star years: 86’, 88-94, 96-97

porter all star years: 91’,93’

Duck all star years: 89’, 91’

buck traded to portland in 89’.

Buck was traded to us the same year we had two all stars. However the previous and following year, only Clyde made it. How do we k now buck arriving helped duck make the all star team in 89’?
Then in 91’ we had three all stars.


my point being sometimes that role player elevates others into all star contention, like a guy who may be close like cj may then make it because of that situation, but wouldn't without the right role player next to him.

How do we know collins doesnt make others better, good enough to be an all star?

or become good enough to do so?

we dont. And we probably never will because the op jinxed his ass.

I like your post and where you're going.

I have a hard time giving Buck credit for TP or Duck being all-stars, but you could very well be right that he did (we'll never know).

Appreciate you helping me understand your point better and willingness to challenge mine with respect!

 

[Orion Bailey]

I like your post and where you're going.

I have a hard time giving Buck credit for TP or Duck being all-stars, but you could very well be right that he did (we'll never know).

Appreciate you helping me understand your point better and willingness to challenge mine with respect!

anytime and likewise.

 

[handiman]

there you go spouting bullshit again

edit: I'm going to back off in the aggression level of my post there....I've been watching the happenings in DC and my blood was running hot when I posted

Props.

but you're wrong. What I was valuing was rational thought; logic and reason. If Zach had any any significant contribution to that 8-3 record, we would not have seen him register so poorly in all those stats I listed that gauge impact.

but go ahead and make your case....explain how it was that Zach was a major factor in those 8 wins

I don't have to explain it. He was present, the team won at a high rate. It's up to you to explain how his presence didn't affect the outcome. Measurable stats can't be the crutch here.

Ever heard of a glue guy? That's basically the definition of someone whose presence affects the outcome more than his measureables. Intangibles are an accepted fact in team sports.

 

[Fez Hammersticks]

Perimeter defense and the extra pass is the missing ingredient.

Draymond

Green

 

[Duckhook]

Is Taurean Green still available?

 

[bobf]

There you go valuing stats over outcomes again.

Correctly valuing stats over outcomes.

 

[handiman]

Correctly valuing stats over outcomes.

That view would be in line with the argument that Collins was overrated because he wasn't a starter in college or HS. Problem is, he's a proven winner. The stats have a hard time capturing why. So no, not correctly.

I liken it to the CJ argument. When Dame is out, CJ alters his game and the team plays faster. The outcome ends up being pretty similar to with Dame. Everyone plays a little different with or without a specific component around them, and sometimes that has a big effect.

 

[KingSpeed]

sorry but i call bs on that.
Buck williams was a role player and changed the team. Just one example.
Many times a team like us just needs that right role playing glue guy.
Haslem for miami.
There are lots of examples where a role player took a team over the top.
Sure a star might also but which is easier to fond and get?

i think Collins, if he isnt now jinxed, is exactly this type in my opinion.

Buck Williams wasn’t a role player. He was a 3 time All Star and All NBA Second Teamer. Besides, no one used the term “role player” back when Buck joined our team. It was a coaching concept coined by Phil Jackson about players put around Michael Jordan. Now people use the term for every player in the league that isn’t an All Star or fringe All Star which is stupid.

As for Collins, when we let Aminu and Harkless go, it’s because we believed in Collins as our starting PF and Barkley has repeatedly said that he believes Collins is going to be a star in this league. Remember summer 2019? All the talk in this forum was about the team’s success would depend on Collins making the jump. Well he didn’t have a chance to grow into the new role because he got hurt. Nonetheless, it was clear we were a better team last season when he played. As I said, 2-1 before he got hurt and then 6-2 in the bubble.

 

[KingSpeed]

Props.



I don't have to explain it. He was present, the team won at a high rate. It's up to you to explain how his presence didn't affect the outcome. Measurable stats can't be the crutch here.

Ever heard of a glue guy? That's basically the definition of someone whose presence affects the outcome more than his measureables. Intangibles are an accepted fact in team sports.

This this this. I don’t care about all those stats. We play better when he’s our starting PF. He does a lot on the floor that doesn’t show up in boxscore. And he was just getting his feet wet. Give him a full season at starting PF and we’ll get even better.

 

[Orion Bailey]

Buck Williams wasn’t a role player. He was a 3 time All Star and All NBA Second Teamer. Besides, no one used the term “role player” back when Buck joined our team. It was a coaching concept coined by Phil Jackson about players put around Michael Jordan. Now people use the term for every player in the league that isn’t an All Star or fringe All Star which is stupid.

As for Collins, when we let Aminu and Harkless go, it’s because we believed in Collins as our starting PF and Barkley has repeatedly said that he believes Collins is going to be a star in this league. Remember summer 2019? All the talk in this forum was about the team’s success would depend on Collins making the jump. Well he didn’t have a chance to grow into the new role because he got hurt. Nonetheless, it was clear we were a better team last season when he played. As I said, 2-1 before he got hurt and then 6-2 in the bubble.

In my opinion he was our role player that took the team over the hump. He didnt make the all star team during our hayday. rodman made the all star team. Was he an all star or a role player? Kerr made the all star team. Is he a star or a role player?

speaking of stupid, how is that curry thread coming along for you?

 

[James lamphear]

As I watch the game last night on replay I will tell you both Jones and Covington are good on ball defenders now there real good playing passing lanes. Zach is a better on ball defender then both of them and right he probably better defender the Nurk. Stats aside and I really don't know how they figure all that crap out but physically watching the game Zach does more on defense then all them. He knows how to take angles away on help defense and I also see stay in front of guys and I actually see him guarding guards and been successful at it. When has got beat I seen get back in the play and alternate the shot. Offensely he probably won't have decent numbers as long plays with Dame and CJ matter a fact you don't see covington or Jones don't have big numbers on offense due to they play with CJ and Dame. Right now this team miss Zach he really showing up at there.

 

[UKRAINEFAN]

In answer to the title of the thread; He has definitely been "missing". (I guess that could be taken in two ways, now that I think about it. )

 

[wizenheimer]

Jones and Covington are good on ball defenders now there real good playing passing lanes. Zach is a better on ball defender then both of them and right he probably better defender the Nurk.

your affection for Zach is duly noted

but where is the evidence that Zach is a better on ball defender than Roco/Jones or a better overall defender than Nurkic? I don't think there's any evidence at all. In fact, the number say just the opposite

and why would there be any expectation, at all, that when and if Zach does return this season he'll be playing with any kind of optimal performance. He will have only played 8 games in the span of 14-16 months and would be returning rusty as hell. Likely with much reduced strength and stamina resulting in poor timing and inconsistent reactions. He just had a 2nd surgery on his ankle. That's not minor

 

[bobf]

That view would be in line with the argument that Collins was overrated because he wasn't a starter in college or HS. Problem is, he's a proven winner. The stats have a hard time capturing why. So no, not correctly.

I liken it to the CJ argument. When Dame is out, CJ alters his game and the team plays faster. The outcome ends up being pretty similar to with Dame. Everyone plays a little different with or without a specific component around them, and sometimes that has a big effect.

The Blazers 35-39 record last year equates to a 5-6 record for 11 games. Suppose Zach being on the court was the cause of our 8-3 record. That's +3 extra wins in 11 games. Extrapolate that to 82 games and it means Zach should turn a 41-41 Blazer team into a 63 win team. Glue guys don't do that. Also, if Zach is such a glue guy then why, for his career, has he made the Blazers point-differential go down instead of up when he's on the court? Did he just become a glue guy last year? Mediocre teams go 8-3 and later go 3-8. It's just variance. Like we blew out GSW and then got blown out by them.

I do think we miss Zach though because he's much better than Melo.

 

[wizenheimer]

The Blazers 35-39 record last year equates to a 5-6 record for 11 games. Suppose Zach being on the court was the cause of our 8-3 record. That's +3 extra wins in 11 games. Extrapolate that to 82 games and it means Zach should turn a 41-41 Blazer team into a 63 win team. Glue guys don't do that. Also, if Zach is such a glue guy then why, for his career, has he made the Blazers point-differential go down instead of up when he's on the court? Did he just become a glue guy last year? Mediocre teams go 8-3 and later go 3-8. It's likely just variance. Like we blew out GSW and then got blown out by them.

you don't understand...there is obviously some magic in the word "outcomes"...utter it and you've made a magical argument

 

[handiman]

The Blazers 35-39 record last year equates to a 5-6 record for 11 games. Suppose Zach being on the court was the cause of our 8-3 record. That's +3 extra wins in 11 games. Extrapolate that to 82 games and it means Zach should turn a 41-41 Blazer team into a 63 win team. Glue guys don't do that.

Careful there, stating opinion as fact.

Also, if Zach is such a glue guy then why, for his career, has he made the Blazers point-differential go down instead of up when he's on the court? Did he just become a glue guy last year? Mediocre teams go 8-3 and later go 3-8. It's just variance. Like we blew out GSW and then got blown out by them.

I already addressed that: "I liken it to the CJ argument. When Dame is out, CJ alters his game and the team plays faster. The outcome ends up being pretty similar to with Dame. Everyone plays a little different with or without a specific component around them, and sometimes that has a big effect." Adding or subtracting a player can affect the role of everyone else, even when said player is off the court. It changes rotations, assignments, game plans, etc. All the little things you stats guys hate trying to take into account...

 

[James lamphear]

your affection for Zach is duly noted

but where is the evidence that Zach is a better on ball defender than Roco/Jones or a better overall defender than Nurkic? I don't think there's any evidence at all. In fact, the number say just the opposite

and why would there be any expectation, at all, that when and if Zach does return this season he'll be playing with any kind of optimal performance. He will have only played 8 games in the span of 14-16 months and would be returning rusty as hell. Likely with much reduced strength and stamina resulting in poor timing and inconsistent reactions. He just had a 2nd surgery on his ankle. That's not minor

Why do you think Roco and Jones are good on ball defenders because there not they have hard time staying in front of there man but if you say there good in passing lanes or helping off ball then I would agree. For Zach I watch the game and don't much look at stats how a player effect the game. For Nurk he not the same defender before he broke his leg and yes all 3 players make good play here and there. If stat buff

your affection for Zach is duly noted

but where is the evidence that Zach is a better on ball defender than Roco/Jones or a better overall defender than Nurkic? I don't think there's any evidence at all. In fact, the number say just the opposite

and why would there be any expectation, at all, that when and if Zach does return this season he'll be playing with any kind of optimal performance. He will have only played 8 games in the span of 14-16 months and would be returning rusty as hell. Likely with much reduced strength and stamina resulting in poor timing and inconsistent reactions. He just had a 2nd surgery on his ankle. That's not minor

Do you know what Zach defense rating of his career on 100 possission 109 he a little down year last due to injuries but his 1st two years is quite good. Jones as also 109 and Covington 105 all 3 of them got good ratings.

 

[bobf]

Careful there, stating opinion as fact.

Where did I say it’s fact? Do I have to preface every line with IMO? But no, no player adds 22 wins in a season without it showing up in his stats.

I already addressed that: "I liken it to the CJ argument. When Dame is out, CJ alters his game and the team plays faster. The outcome ends up being pretty similar to with Dame. Everyone plays a little different with or without a specific component around them, and sometimes that has a big effect." Adding or subtracting a player can affect the role of everyone else, even when said player is off the court. It changes rotations, assignments, game plans, etc. All the little things you stats guys hate trying to take into account...

If Zach somehow has a big positive on-court effect, by whatever means, even by magic, it would appear in his plus/minus. It hasn’t.

 

[KingSpeed]

Careful there, stating opinion as fact.



I already addressed that: "I liken it to the CJ argument. When Dame is out, CJ alters his game and the team plays faster. The outcome ends up being pretty similar to with Dame. Everyone plays a little different with or without a specific component around them, and sometimes that has a big effect." Adding or subtracting a player can affect the role of everyone else, even when said player is off the court. It changes rotations, assignments, game plans, etc. All the little things you stats guys hate trying to take into account...

Jesus, this guy gets it.

 

[mook]

Probably posted elsewhere, but here's the latest news I read about him:
https://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/...ly-after-second-ankle-surgery-in-four-months/

Zach Collins' time on the sideline has been extended indefinitely. On Wednesday afternoon, the Portland Trail Blazers announced that Collins underwent surgery on his left ankle to repair a stress fracture. There is currently no timetable for his recovery.

This is the second ankle surgery for Collins in the past four months as his brutal run of bad luck in regard to injuries continues. After missing most of the 2019-20 season due to shoulder surgery, Collins was cleared to play inside the bubble this summer when the season resumed. His return only lasted eight games, however, as he went down with the initial ankle injury that needed surgery and kept him out of the playoffs.

Portland was hopeful that he would return to the court sometime in January, but he has obviously suffered some sort of setback that has required a second surgery. In three-plus seasons since being the No. 10 overall pick in the 2017 NBA Draft, Collins has only managed to play in 154 games. Collins' inability to stay on the floor was likely a big factor in the Blazers' decision not to offer him an extension this offseason, which will take him to restricted free agency in the summer.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

Talked to a guy the other day who claimshe's good friends with a high-level Blazers scout. Supposedly the scouting team can't stand Zach because of his inability to stay healthy and would love him off the team, but his value is so low around the league they can't give him away.

Third-hand and completely unsourced, but thought I'd share anyway.

 

[kjironman1]

Talked to a guy the other day who claimshe's good friends with a high-level Blazers scout. Supposedly the scouting team can't stand Zach because of his inability to stay healthy and would love him off the team, but his value is so low around the league they can't give him away.

Third-hand and completely unsourced, but thought I'd share anyway.

Do you remember the Olshey interview at the beginning of the season with Zach practicing and he actually says “There’s Zach now”. I wonder if that was all just for show? Oh the conspiracy theories....

 

[James lamphear]

I really don't believe this injury prone due fact his rookie season he play 66 games and his 2nd season he played 77 games. He shoulder and ankle is freak accident and due to him having another surgery on same ankle was due to the 1st just didn't take place. I don't believe some scout said they can't stand him and his value is low because I just read some where there's teams been asking about him.

 

[handiman]

Why would the scouting team care whether Zach is capable of taking the court? Their responsibility ends (or should end) with scouting the upcoming opponents. Aren't the coaches doing all the game planning at that point, taking into account what players are available?

On the other hand, if someone's going to create a totally bogus claim and try to pass it off to others, it might as well be plausible. And that certainly isn't, so maybe it's true?? "Never go against a Sicilian when death is on the line!"

 

[julius]

The Missing Ingredient? Wasn't their big hit "everybody plays the fool"?

 

[Pinwheel1]

The injuries to Zach have hurt. They have hurt the team and they have hurt Zach's development.
However, against teams with spread PFs I prefer having Covington (and maybe even Jones) at the 4 spot. Collins does a decent job of getting out on the perimeter but that takes him away from his strengths, which IMO is being a help defender around the basket.

So is he a better center than Kanter for our 2nd team? They are two completely different types of players. I guess I would have to say that he is not thee missing ingredient, but he will make us better when he is fully healthy. He adds a need with his skills.

 

[wizenheimer]

I really don't believe this injury prone due fact his rookie season he play 66 games and his 2nd season he played 77 games.

there's another way to look at that though

Zach stayed relatively healthy when he was averaging 17 minutes a game coming off the bench. But last season, he was a starter averaging 10 more minutes/game and could only play 11 games

so, you could then ask what was the fluke: his last two injury-filled seasons or his first two injury-free seasons? Which pair of seasons is more predictive of the future?

Why would the scouting team care whether Zach is capable of taking the court? Their responsibility ends (or should end) with scouting the upcoming opponents.

I don't know which scouting members preview coming opponents, but I'd imagine that's handled by the coaching staff. I'm assuming there's another group of scouts responsible for talent evaluation. And that their responsibility includes evaluating all NBA players as well as college and G-League talent. And assign grades for all of them. In that regard, it would make some sense if one of the gauges was how Portland's current player(s) stacked up by position against all the others they grade