Is Portland the best team in the West?

[CJ_is_Gone]

yeah, I misread

Portland is hard-capped meaning they can't exceed the Apron for any reason. The Apron is 156.98M. Portland's taxable salaries are 150.2M (which is 67K under the tax threshold). Meaning the Blazers have around 6.7M in maneuverable margin

so, practically speaking they could make a trade(s) for 6.7M more incoming salary than they send out. They have no exception other than minimum salary exceptions to sign players.

what Portland does have is a 6.5M trade exception from the RoCo trade; and a 3.3M exception from the NAW trade with Utah. Either of those would fit into the margin Portland has under the Apron

Untrue. Portland does have the Bi-Annual exception for $4M that they can sign a player for.

Thank you for clearing that up for me. So technically they can sign a player but can only spend up to 6.7 million at most? Or is this only incoming trade value?

Portland can use the RoCo TPE to bring back a player who's salary is <$6.5M. Or they can do a trade where the difference of outgoing/incoming salaries is <$6.7M

 

[wizenheimer]

Untrue. Portland does have the Bi-Annual exception for $4M that they can sign a player for.

yeah, I was thinking Portland could use it because they'd used their MLE, but when I think about it they used the non-tax MLE so they could use the BAE.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

The Hard Cap is ~$6M over the lux tax line.
Portland is currently sitting ~$60k UNDER the lux tax line.

In theory, Portland could sign a player for ~$4M using the Bi-annual exception or make a trade as long as the net salary increase is <$6M.

The biggest factor in all of this, is NOT actually paying the lux tax. It's that Portland would loose out of the tax re-distribution from the other tax teams.
Currently there projects to be 11 tax paying teams with a total bill of approximately $694M. There may be some teams that make moves to try and lower/avoid the tax. So say there are 10 teams paying a bill $680M. I believe the league takes half & distributes the other half (although the league is not required) to the remaining 20 teams.

By going OVER the tax line, Portland will forfeit approximately $17M of revenue (paid as a distribution from the other tax teams).

So ANY move that would increase the teams salary (even signing a guy to a 10-day contract) has to be viewed in the lens of "Are they worth giving up $17M?"
With that in mind, I would be flabbergasted if Portland went into the tax this season.

Yeah, that's the crazy part about where we're at now. Like yesterday I was discussing in another thread the theoretical possibility of the Blazers adding a backup big (Whiteside, Howard, Cousins, etc), and the fact is that all told, it would cost the Blazers about $22M to do so.

 

[HailBlazers]

Yeah, that's the crazy part about where we're at now. Like yesterday I was discussing in another thread the theoretical possibility of the Blazers adding a backup big (Whiteside, Howard, Cousins, etc), and the fact is that all told, it would cost the Blazers about $22M to do so.

Considering the lost revenue from the past two years it doesn't really make a lot of business sense to do that. It's not like we're actually contenders this year or anything.

 

[THE HCP]

I think people need to stop conflating developing with playing time. Terry didn't develop Simons. He played him but didn't let him get his because he wanted Ant to force feed Melo. Stotts had Mo Williams ahead of CJ in the rotation. He also was playing Mario Hezonja and Anthony Tolliver ahead of Nassir Little. Oh, and he didn't at all develop Noah Vonleh. Now Vonleh is a contributor on a great Boston team. After an initial successful showing, Meyers became strictly a stretch 5 because Terry wanted to stretch the floor.

Olshey constructed the roster according to what Terry wanted. It's a fallacy to say he didn't have defensive players. He did. Wenyen Gabriel was a terrific defensive player and opted for Mario/Tolliver.

Stotts didn't develop much.

You just typed that “Olshey constructed the roster according to what Terry wanted” You sir could not be more wrong if you tried. You actually believe this huh? WOW!

 

[Propagandist]

I would bet Anfernee Simons himself would disagree with you here. He played the kid and he coached him for 3 years. He was playing behind two of the best guards in the league. He played him 70 games in his 2nd season and 64 games in his 3rd. If you think that is conflating development with playing time then i don't know what to tell you? Playing time is exactly what that kid needed to develop.
By the way Vonleh started a bunch of games for Stotts? A grand total of 97 games? How do you figure that guy was not in the developmental stage? Then he bounced from team to team and eventually ended up out of the league? Okay so he has 4 games with Boston this year. Nobody in their wildest dreams would think Vonleh didn't get his chances?

Guy is stuck in a narrative. It happens to the best of us. Don't get vaccinated, by the way.

 

[Sheldon Shape]

You just typed that “Olshey constructed the roster according to what Terry wanted” You sir could not be more wrong if you tried. You actually believe this huh? WOW!

When we went from defensive wings to guys who can shoot it tells you something. When we had defensive players like Nassir Little and Wenyen Gabriel and they couldn't sniff the court over guys like Tolliver and Hezonja, it tells you something. Terry valued shooting/spreading the floor more than defense.

 

[THE HCP]

When we went from defensive wings to guys who can shoot it tells you something. When we had defensive players like Nassir Little and Wenyen Gabriel and they couldn't sniff the court over guys like Tolliver and Hezonja, it tells you something. Terry valued shooting/spreading the floor more than defense.

He valued vets that could help immediately to inexperienced players who couldn’t. So did Dame.

 

[SharpeScooterShooter]

Talk about kicking a dead horse… what in tarnation is goin on around here??

 

[andalusian]

When we went from defensive wings to guys who can shoot it tells you something. When we had defensive players like Nassir Little and Wenyen Gabriel and they couldn't sniff the court over guys like Tolliver and Hezonja, it tells you something. Terry valued shooting/spreading the floor more than defense.

That's not true. Zach Collins as a rookie played more than Meyers Leonard that shot much better than him. He did not play as much as Ed Davis, a veteran that was ready to help night in, night out.

Little had injuries and was in and out during this rookie year. It is hard to justify giving time to a rookie that does not have any continuity on a team trying to compete - which the Blazers were a year after making the WCF.

Sorry man, but you are married to a narrative instead of the facts.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

He valued vets that could help immediately to inexperienced players who couldn’t. So did Dame.

This is what they call "short-term gain; long-term loss".

 

[wizenheimer]

When we went from defensive wings to guys who can shoot it tells you something. When we had defensive players like Nassir Little and Wenyen Gabriel and they couldn't sniff the court over guys like Tolliver and Hezonja, it tells you something. Terry valued shooting/spreading the floor more than defense.

c'mon man...try and come up with better examples. All 4 of the players you mentioned are/were scrubs. Yeah, I know that will trigger Nas fans but I've been watching him on defense this year and he makes a lot of mistakes, and I'm sure he was even worse as a rookie. That season, Tolliver averaged 17 minutes, Hezonja 16, and Nas 12; so it's not like Nas sat while the others were primary in a rotation

frankly, thinking that the use of Gabriel tells you anything about a coach's tendencies is weird

I think Stotts was like a lot of coaches in that he'd value and reward players who can either play both ends of the floor or be really good on one end. Olshey rarely gave him either. Stotts had to deal with Olshey's imbalanced rosters and dumpster diving additions, year after year. That's not to say that Stotts was a great coach....he wasn't close to great, at all. But what I saw was that Stotts got hammered over and over for roster issues he had no control over. Playing Hezonja over Gabriel doesn't tell you anything except that Stotts had shitty options

 

[andalusian]

I think Stotts was like a lot of coaches in that he'd value and reward players who can either play both ends of the floor or be really good on one end. Olshey rarely gave him either. Stotts had to deal with Olshey's imbalanced rosters and dumpster diving additions, year after year. That's not to say that Stotts was a great coach....he wasn't close to great, at all. But what I saw was that Stotts got hammered over and over for roster issues he had no control over. Playing Hezonja over Gabriel doesn't tell you anything except that Stotts had shitty options

I actually don't even agree with that take. Herzonja was brought in as an ET replacement, a forward that can handle the ball and distribute to ensure that when Dame and CJ are not on the court together, it is harder to double the only ball handler on the court. Comparing the play time of Herzonja with Gabriel or Little makes no sense at all. While they are all forwards, their roles in these rosters were completely different. Stotts played Herzonja as much as he did because he had to. This makes about as much sense as having to choose between Little and Winslow. Sure, they both are forwards, but one can run the offense and one does not.

 

[wizenheimer]

I actually don't even agree with that take. Herzonja was brought in as an ET replacement, a forward that can handle the ball and distribute to ensure that when Dame and CJ are not on the court together, it is harder to double the only ball handler on the court. Comparing the play time of Herzonja with Gabriel or Little makes no sense at all. While they are all forwards, their roles in these rosters were completely different. Stotts played Herzonja as much as he did because he had to. This makes about as much sense as having to choose between Little and Winslow. Sure, they both are forwards, but one can run the offense and one does not.

that's fair, but it actually buttresses the point I made...that being that Hezonja playing more than Little had nothing to do with Stotts tendencies, but with roster construction

 

[andalusian]

that's fair, but it actually buttresses the point I made...that being that Hezonja playing more than Little had nothing to do with Stotts tendencies, but with roster construction

I agree with that. I just wanted to point that even questioning why Herzonja played over Little or Gabriel is not a question that needs to be asked at all. Anyone that is asking that is not actually thinking about the team context. I mean, Toliver over Little - there is a question that can be asked if Little was not injured, but Herzonja? Unrelated in that team.

 

[THE HCP]

This is what they call "short-term gain; long-term loss".

Correct. We made the playoffs every season and didn’t develop young talent. Some are/were OK with that.

 

[Sheldon Shape]

He valued vets that could help immediately to inexperienced players who couldn’t. So did Dame.

He also valued no accountability on defense and last in assists. He wasn't willing to think outside the box.

 

[Sheldon Shape]

You just typed that “Olshey constructed the roster according to what Terry wanted” You sir could not be more wrong if you tried. You actually believe this huh? WOW!

Nobody is saying Olshey did a sufficient job, but I believe he catered to what Terry wanted. All offense, no defense. Terry had defensive options that he parked on the bench in favor of guys who can stretch the floor.

 

[Sheldon Shape]

Wait a minute? I'm not on this to protect Terry Stotts. Just to set the record straight a bit on this seemingly consistent thought process.
Terry had a number of picks during his time here. Dame 6th pick who obviously played and developed. CJ 10th pick who played and was developed.
Then Meyers Leonard 10th Pick who was given more chances than could ever been expected.
Zach Collins 10th pick who was given lots of playing time.
Nassir Little wasn't picked until #25 and we still wonder if he will turn it on?
Picked 24th Simons was given as much as could have ever been expected his rookie year. Maybe could have been pushed faster? Hard to say?

Anybody else picked didn't even stay in the league? Terry developed just fine for the picks he was given. Olshey constructed that roster.

Was CJ being developed before Matthews went down? Not so much.
Meyers got playing time but as the seasons went on, his game became more and more rudimentary. Stand at the 3 point line and wait for the ball. If Terry wanted Meyers to get back in the paint, he could have instructed him to do so. Meyers started off his career very promising and then veered off to just a stretch center.
Agreed that Zach played.
Nas being picked at #25 is still better than than Hezonja and Tolliver.
I thought I heard Simons allude to being critical of Terry's coaching once Chauncey arrived. Ant was pretty much instructed to dump the ball inside to Melo on the block once he came in.
Vonleh at times could have been better for us than Aminu and there were flashes, but again, Terry valued the guy who can stretch the floor in Aminu over Vonleh.

 

[Sheldon Shape]

That's not true. Zach Collins as a rookie played more than Meyers Leonard that shot much better than him. He did not play as much as Ed Davis, a veteran that was ready to help night in, night out.

Little had injuries and was in and out during this rookie year. It is hard to justify giving time to a rookie that does not have any continuity on a team trying to compete - which the Blazers were a year after making the WCF.

Sorry man, but you are married to a narrative instead of the facts.

Fact is Mario and Tolliver were playing over Little. I don't care about continuity. Ant was instructed to dump the ball into Melo when he came in. Collins played, I give you that. Meyers had a promising start and began to drift to the three point line... just as Terry Stotts wanted.

 

[andalusian]

Nobody is saying Olshey did a sufficient job, but I believe he catered to what Terry wanted. All offense, no defense. Terry had defensive options that he parked on the bench in favor of guys who can stretch the floor.

Like whom?

If you look at DBPM for that Little rookie year, his DBPM was worse than Hezonja or even Hood's very injured shell. Gabriel, fwiw, was also behind Herzonja in his DBPM.

What defensive tools did Terry has that he did not play? The only players with a positive DBPM that year were Nurkic, Whiteside, Bazemore, Ariza, Herzonja and Skal. That's it. There were no defensive options on that roster. Zach Collins was not back to his defensive standard after the injury, that team had no defensive players on the roster that did not play. It was a crap roster, simple as that.

BTW, for the very small sample we have seen so far, it seems like ZCo is finally back to being a defensive force after all these injuries. Still a minus on offense, but on defense, he is starting to look again like his old self.

 

[THE HCP]

Nobody is saying Olshey did a sufficient job, but I believe he catered to what Terry wanted. All offense, no defense. Terry had defensive options that he parked on the bench in favor of guys who can stretch the floor.

Neil built those teams for himself my guy. What Stotts did with some of those rosters is strangely overlooked on here.

 

[julius]

Neil built those teams for himself my guy. What Stotts did with some of those rosters is strangely overlooked on here.

Especially considering they had signed non shooters like Evan Turner, had absolute bums like Tolliver, Snell, Hezonja & Stauskus.

 

[THE HCP]

Especially considering they had signed non shooters like Evan Turner, had absolute bums like Tolliver, Snell, Hezonja & Stauskus.

Agreed

 

[andalusian]

Fact is Mario and Tolliver were playing over Little. I don't care about continuity.

What you care about and what the team cares about are obviously different. That team just went to the WCF. Neil claimed he fixed the problems (Aminu / Harkless) with the new roster. It would be absurd not to think the coach and the team would try to play to win. Dame Lillard is not around here if you always play to develop the young ones, especially if they do not produce and are in and out of the active list because of injuries. Sorry, man, that's your unrealistic expectations.

Ant was instructed to dump the ball into Melo when he came in. Collins played, I give you that. Meyers had a promising start and began to drift to the three point line... just as Terry Stotts wanted.

Don't know what Ant was instructed to do or not, but Meyers problems began when Neil fired the big man coach we had and did not replace him. As for Melo, as bad as he was offensively that year, he was still better than Ant - and he was brought in to try and help the Blazers save their season - so it would not be reasonable not to try and get him going.

Frankly, you are reading too much into your expectations and love for the young talent for that season, in the context of what it was, what Terry did given the crap roster he had to work with was more than reasonable.

 

[THE HCP]

What you care about and what the team cares about are obviously different. That team just went to the WCF. Neil claimed he fixed the problems (Aminu / Harkless) with the new roster. It would be absurd not to think the coach and the team would try to play to win. Dame Lillard is not around here if you always play to develop the young ones, especially if they do not produce and are in and out of the active list because of injuries. Sorry, man, that's your unrealistic expectations.



Don't know what Ant was instructed to do or not, but Meyers problems began when Neil fired the big man coach we had and did not replace him. As for Melo, as bad as he was offensively that year, he was still better than Ant - and he was brought in to try and help the Blazers save their season - so it would not be reasonable not to try and get him going.

Frankly, you are reading too much into your expectations and love for the young talent for that season, in the context of what it was, what Terry did given the crap roster he had to work with was more than reasonable.

Well said FAMS.

 

[THE HCP]

I said this in June and I’ll say it now. I don’t believe Dame wants to “develop” young talent….he wants to win NOW!

 

[Fairly-Hard]

Was CJ being developed before Matthews went down? Not so much.
Meyers got playing time but as the seasons went on, his game became more and more rudimentary. Stand at the 3 point line and wait for the ball. If Terry wanted Meyers to get back in the paint, he could have instructed him to do so. Meyers started off his career very promising and then veered off to just a stretch center.
Agreed that Zach played.
Nas being picked at #25 is still better than than Hezonja and Tolliver.
I thought I heard Simons allude to being critical of Terry's coaching once Chauncey arrived. Ant was pretty much instructed to dump the ball inside to Melo on the block once he came in.
Vonleh at times could have been better for us than Aminu and there were flashes, but again, Terry valued the guy who can stretch the floor in Aminu over Vonleh.

Good question about CJ? I wonder if Wes had stayed healthy and the Blazers made a good run that year in the playoffs if CJ would have even been here? Everyone said Wes was the heart and soul of the Blazers. That team stays together without that injury maybe?

 

[Sheldon Shape]

Like whom?

If you look at DBPM for that Little rookie year, his DBPM was worse than Hezonja or even Hood's very injured shell. Gabriel, fwiw, was also behind Herzonja in his DBPM.

What defensive tools did Terry has that he did not play? The only players with a positive DBPM that year were Nurkic, Whiteside, Bazemore, Ariza, Herzonja and Skal. That's it. There were no defensive options on that roster. Zach Collins was not back to his defensive standard after the injury, that team had no defensive players on the roster that did not play. It was a crap roster, simple as that.

BTW, for the very small sample we have seen so far, it seems like ZCo is finally back to being a defensive force after all these injuries. Still a minus on offense, but on defense, he is starting to look again like his old self.

Anyone with two eyeballs can tell you Little and Gabriel's defense was better than Tolliver and Hezonja's. Little came in with an NBA body. One of the few. I hardly think Stotts was looking at DBPM stats. All things being equal, you give your first round pick run over guys who are hanging onto the NBA dream by a fingernail.

 

[Sheldon Shape]

Neil built those teams for himself my guy. What Stotts did with some of those rosters is strangely overlooked on here.

Agree to disagree, my guy. There's a reason why Stotts had a horrendous coaching record before he got to Portland.