Is Portland the best team in the West?

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Come on Minny! Wemby here we come!
 

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Also: we really need to be (suppresses gag reflect) rooting for the Lakers, because they're only helping the Pelicans.
 
Rastapopoulos said:
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Come on Minny! Wemby here we come!
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so then, looking at that, Portland is only 2 games out of HCA since they own the tie-beaker over Phoenix

that despite this home/road imbalance for all the teams:

Denver - 14/17 (-3)
Memphis - 15/16 (-1)
New Orleans - 17-15 (+2)
Phoenix - 19/14 (+5)
LAC - 18/16 (+2)
Sacramento - 15/16 (+1)
Utah 17-18 (-1)
Dallas - 17/16 (+1)
Portland - 13/20 (-7)
Minny - 17/16 (+1)

4 of the next 6 games for Portland are on the road, after which the Blazers will have a 15/24 home road imbalance. The rest of the way Portland will have a 26/17 home/road split. That would be pretty encouraging if the Blazers weren't 7-6 at home. On the other hand, a big reason for that is they haven't had a long stretch of home-heavy schedule like the other teams. Right at the first of the season they had a stretch of 5 of 6 games at home where they went 4-2. And, they had a 4 game home stand in early December when they went 3-1. So 7-3 over their only 2 stretches of home dominant schedule

and, starting Jan 10, they have a stretch of 10 of 11 at home which is part of a 15-4 home/road split. If they are going to escape the play-in (unlikely?), that's the time when the Blazers have to shine
 
The last 11 games when Dame has been in action, we have been the 2nd best offense an the 17th best defense.

Trending in the right direction even if we have just gone 6-5.

We really need to consider this ridiculous travel schedule over the past month when making too many conclusions on how good/bad this team is.
 
illmatic99 said:
The last 11 games when Dame has been in action, we have been the 2nd best offense an the 17th best defense.

Trending in the right direction even if we have just gone 6-5.

We really need to consider this ridiculous travel schedule over the past month when making too many conclusions on how good/bad this team is.
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yeah, I'd say so

on January 8, after they play at Toronto, Portland will be 39 games into the season. Their home/road split at that point will be 15-24. Meaning the rest of the 43 games left will have a 26-17 home/road split. A long stretch of mostly home games can really pad a record. New Orleans had a 15 game stretch where 12 of the 15 were at home. That's when they climbed to the top of the west. They then went 0-3 on a mini-road-trip; won an OT game at OKC; then won two more at home. Over a 24 game stretch, the Pels have had a 17-7 home/road advantage. They have had the opposite kind of schedule as Portland.

How much of the 3 game lead the Pels have over Portland is due to schedules?
 
wizenheimer said:
yeah, I'd say so

on January 8, after they play at Toronto, Portland will be 39 games into the season. Their home/road split at that point will be 15-24. Meaning the rest of the 43 games left will have a 26-17 home/road split. A long stretch of mostly home games can really pad a record. New Orleans had a 15 game stretch where 12 of the 15 were at home. That's when they climbed to the top of the west. They then went 0-3 on a mini-road-trip; won an OT game at OKC; then won two more at home. Over a 24 game stretch, the Pels have had a 17-7 home/road advantage. They have had the opposite kind of schedule as Portland.

How much of the 3 game lead the Pels have over Portland is due to schedules?
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we also need to use net rating and point differential as more predictive indicators than absolute record at the moment.

For the entire season, our net rating is 15th in the league and 8th in the west.

The past 11 games, with Dame, it has been 7th in the league and 2nd in the west.

Unless we or our competitors have major injuries, think we end up somewhere in the middle on the cusp of a 5-6 seed with an outside shot at HCA. We need to improve our bench if we want a better chance at a top 4 spot.
 
wizenheimer said:
they should

barring trades, Portland is going to pay about about 150M in payroll & tax; the Clippers are on the hook for 347M in payroll & tax. That's almost 200M more
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I wish we would pay that kind of money for a good bench.
 
wizenheimer said:
they should

barring trades, Portland is going to pay about about 150M in payroll & tax; the Clippers are on the hook for 347M in payroll & tax. That's almost 200M more
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I would say when we were handing out contracts like hotcakes during the late 90s and early 2000s… I was really happy. I never woke up upset about our luxury tax or payroll situation. I can promise you that FAMS.
 
THE HCP said:
I would say when we were handing out contracts like hotcakes during the late 90s and early 2000s… I was really happy. I never woke up upset about our luxury tax or payroll situation. I can promise you that FAMS.
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The luxury tax implications pertaining to roster flexibility were much different 20 years ago. They've changed the CBA a lot in attempt to penalize teams that are over the tax, especially repeat offenders.
 
Tince said:
The luxury tax implications pertaining to roster flexibility were much different 20 years ago. They've changed the CBA a lot in attempt to penalize teams that are over the tax, especially repeat offenders.
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Yeah, now it takes longer to push your team salary out far enough to legitimately contend year in and year out. That's why I have a problem with the penny pinching that's going on right now. We need to be pushing this team further and further into the tax because that's when you can make trades for guys making 10-20M to add to your core instead of only having the option of making those trades by giving up your core.

The only way the Warriors had Steph, Klay, Dray, Wiggins and seven good role players last season was that they've been pushing that team salary up through the years. The Clippers are doing the same thing. It's why the Celtics and Bucks are both spending like 30M more than we are right now. It's why the Lakers and Nets are spending that way as well... it's not just so they can have a contending roster at this moment because they obviously don't but it's so if someone becomes available that they think will make them contenders they can take that swing.

I really don't want to hear about small market bullshit... especially not with our ownership group. First of all most teams that go into the luxury tax in small markets still make money but even when they lose money they make money because of the increase in team valuation and their ability to claim the negative revenue on their taxes which for our team being under the umbrella of a conglomerate means that they can pay less or no taxes on endeavors that did make money.
 
blazerkor said:
I really don't want to hear about small market bullshit... especially not with our ownership group. .
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look at the most 'spendy' teams this season, and where their metro areas rank in media market (rank)

1 Los Angeles Clippers $202,020,279 (2nd)
2 Golden State Warriors $197,905,803 (6th)
3 Brooklyn Nets $194,069,185 (1st)
4 Boston Celtics $188,481,182 (10th)
5 Milwaukee Bucks $187,319,919 (37th)
6 Los Angeles Lakers $179,370,186 (2nd)
7 Dallas Mavericks $173,653,617 (5th)
8 Phoenix Suns $170,942,549 (11th)
9 Denver Nuggets $168,351,407 (16th)
10 Philadelphia 76ers $163,329,675 (4th)
11 Atlanta Hawks $156,325,984 (7th)
12 Washington Wizards $156,249,793 (9th)

pretty much all top-10 teams in terms of media markets with a couple of exceptions, Denver and Milwaukee. Of course, the Bucks are investing in a team that is definitely a contender and who won a championship

more than that though is when you look at the actual contenders it becomes pretty damn obvious that just being into the luxury tax isn't enough. You need to be deep into the luxury tax; as in at least 20-30M over the line. And it's much easier for teams in major media markets to afford that kind of expense. And nearly impossible to justify being that far over unless you are a contender

the Blazers could only go about 5M into the tax and that isn't going to do much at all. Sure won't make them a contender.
 
wizenheimer said:
look at the most 'spendy' teams this season, and where their metro areas rank in media market (rank)

1 Los Angeles Clippers $202,020,279 (2nd)
2 Golden State Warriors $197,905,803 (6th)
3 Brooklyn Nets $194,069,185 (1st)
4 Boston Celtics $188,481,182 (10th)
5 Milwaukee Bucks $187,319,919 (37th)
6 Los Angeles Lakers $179,370,186 (2nd)
7 Dallas Mavericks $173,653,617 (5th)
8 Phoenix Suns $170,942,549 (11th)
9 Denver Nuggets $168,351,407 (16th)
10 Philadelphia 76ers $163,329,675 (4th)
11 Atlanta Hawks $156,325,984 (7th)
12 Washington Wizards $156,249,793 (9th)

pretty much all top-10 teams in terms of media markets with a couple of exceptions, Denver and Milwaukee. Of course, the Bucks are investing in a team that is definitely a contender and who won a championship

more than that though is when you look at the actual contenders it becomes pretty damn obvious that just being into the luxury tax isn't enough. You need to be deep into the luxury tax; as in at least 20-30M over the line. And it's much easier for teams in major media markets to afford that kind of expense. And nearly impossible to justify being that far over unless you are a contender

the Blazers could only go about 5M into the tax and that isn't going to do much at all. Sure won't make them a contender.
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Obviously they've already made the decision that they will penny pinch this season and will not end up in the tax so they reset the repeater clock. I don't give a shit about that.

You seem to have missed my point completely... the fucking Bucks aren't losing money and if they did they would be able to pay zero taxes and still reap the benefits of the team's valuation increase. Our team is owned by an umbrella corporation that is worth around 20B. So tell me that having one of its entities take a small loss would be bad for them, when it would allow them to pay zero in overall corporate taxes like Amazon and others do.

The penny pinching by this team is inexcusable to me. It shows a lack of commitment to winning and it's extremely shortsighted. I could get it if the only thing an ownership group had going on was their team but then again that ownership group should measure any loss they might take against the increase of team valuation and no team in the NBA has seen any losses that even sniff the amount of increase in valuation over the past four decades. So again, it's fucking inexcusable.
 
blazerkor said:
Obviously they've already made the decision that they will penny pinch this season and will not end up in the tax so they reset the repeater clock. I don't give a shit about that.

You seem to have missed my point completely... the fucking Bucks aren't losing money and if they did they would be able to pay zero taxes and still reap the benefits of the team's valuation increase. Our team is owned by an umbrella corporation that is worth around 20B. So tell me that having one of its entities take a small loss would be bad for them, when it would allow them to pay zero in overall corporate taxes like Amazon and others do.

The penny pinching by this team is inexcusable to me. It shows a lack of commitment to winning and it's extremely shortsighted. I could get it if the only thing an ownership group had going on was their team but then again that ownership group should measure any loss they might take against the increase of team valuation and no team in the NBA has seen any losses that even sniff the amount of increase in valuation over the past four decades. So again, it's fucking inexcusable.
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and you missed my point.

do you really believe it will make any difference this season if the Blazers go a couple of million into the tax? Will that elevate them from the play-in to HCA? If they were paying Simons 40M and Nurkic 30M they'd be up around the Boston level in payroll....would they be a contender then?

they could have kept the CJ-Powell-Nance team in tact and extended Ant and Nurk....that would had them up about the same level of payroll. Still not a contender, right?

do you have evidence that the "penny-pinching" has cost the team any upgrade?

I get the theory you guys are talking about. It's probably rare these days for a non-tax paying team to be a contender. I just don't see how that applies to this Blazer team, this season. The failed Olshey roster(s) had to be dismantled and that was just about guaranteed to reduce payroll...which it did. If it turns out the Blazers could have significantly upgraded the roster this year but fear of a 7M tax bill prevented it, then yeah, I'd agree. I have a hard time imagining that though. I have said repeatedly I hated that Cronin hard-capped the team for Payton. IMO that was a bad move last summer and every week since then it's become worse. But other than that where is the missed opportunity that you are so pissed off about?
 
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