Politics Is the US Headed Towards Another Civil War? | Barbara F. Walter | TED

[Phatguysrule]

 

[barfo]

Cliff notes please. Is it yes or no?

barfo

 

[Phatguysrule]

Cliff notes please. Is it yes or no?

barfo

It has the main two markers.

US democracy has been downgraded 3 times since 2016 according to the Economist Intelligence Unit's Democracy Index.

First for allowing Russian medling in the 2016 election.

Second, in 2019 for the Whitehouse refusing to turn over information Congress requested.

Then the final time, due to Jan 6th, US democracy was downgraded from a full democracy to a "flawed democracy".

The second part is who typically start civil wars. It's typically during a political shift and the people who are losing power start the civil war.

The US is in the process of transitioning from a majority white population to a majority non-white population. The US will be first country to do this. So we're not exactly sure how it will go.

But Trump, his antics, and Jan 6th aren't encouraging...

 

[SharpeScooterShooter]

With how more and more average citizens are sooo judgemental there is an increasing divide and a mentality of if you aren't with me you are against me, i see it as inevitable.
As long as we continue this condemnation divide( often without knowing all the facts), it will happen.
I dont think it has anything to do with race or even money. It has to do with moral authority types trying to cancel anyone who disagrees with them.
Theclack of respect betwen individuals is increasing, not only on social media, but in real life.
Everyone has a breaking point and at a point loke minded thinkers will band together.
Those who think they know how everyone else should live and tries to force thst on them and those who understand compromise and want to be left alone.
Those who use their personal opinions to judge people as if their opinions are facts are causing the bulk of this moral divide.

Lashing out because someone did something you disagree with but isn't against the law. Its more and more rampant. Eventually enough people wil be sick of this and band together and push back. Pushing leads to fighting and fighting leads to war.
The pushing is already happening.

if it isn't against the law, people need to mind more of their own business and stop lashing out at others as if they are God.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

With how more and more average citizens are sooo judgemental there is an increasing divide and a mentality of if you aren't with me you are against me, i see it as inevitable.
As long as we continue this condemnation divide( often without knowing all the facts), it will happen.
I dont think it has anything to do with race or even money. It has to do with moral authority types trying to cancel anyone who disagrees with them.
Theclack of respect betwen individuals is increasing, not only on social media, but in real life.
Everyone has a breaking point and at a point loke minded thinkers will band together.
Those who think they know how everyone else should live and tries to force thst on them and those who understand compromise and want to be left alone.
Those who use their personal opinions to judge people as if their opinions are facts are causing the bulk of this moral divide.

Lashing out because someone did something you disagree with but isn't against the law. Its more and more rampant. Eventually enough people wil be sick of this and band together and push back. Pushing leads to fighting and fighting leads to war.
The pushing is already happening.

if it isn't against the law, people need to mind more of their own business and stop lashing out at others as if they are God.

What's sad to me is how many people get up in arms not only with those with whom they disagree, but even with those who agree, but just not vehemently enough. You support civil rights, but you're not out protesting for them... you're part of the problem. You care about children but you're not fostering... you're a hypocrite. You care about the environment, but you skipped the beach cleanup... you're clearly a poser. It's ridiculous

 

[oldfisherman]

Hope one bucket of coffee is enough to respond in a way that makes sense. This is a very important topic, and one I have given a lot of thought to.

One of the sadest things about getting older is watching how divided our people have become. We have always had differences, but we worked together to find the best solution. People today have way too much hate and poison in their hearts. This only pushes us futher apart.

Rather than point fingures at who has caused this. (There is plenty of blame to go around to all sides.) I am trying to find the root cause, and how to fix it.

I am a firm believer in the checks and balances provided by our two party system. However I believe it is flawed, flaws that have fueled this division. Our two party system is in need of reforms.

We need to stop people from declaring if they are a Dem or Rep. Everyone should be an independent.

More important. We should no longer alow voting for everyone on a party ticket. Think about it. If you only voted for everyone in one party, over the long run, 50% of the time, you have voted for the person that will not get the better results.

We should be voting for the best politician that has a history proven to get the best results for the most people. And stop voting for the politician or party that supports a special interest, while ignoring what is important to others.

Short version, vote for the person, not issues. The issues divide us. The best politicians know how to handle the issues to achieve the best results, and bring us back together.

 

[Phatguysrule]

I'm not even sure how a civil war would work here in the US...

Who would be attacking who? How would you know who's side you're on? What's the target? What's the goal?

 

[SharpeScooterShooter]

What's sad to me is how many people get up in arms not only with those with whom they disagree, but even with those who agree, but just not vehemently enough. You support civil rights, but you're not out protesting for them... you're part of the problem. You care about children but you're not fostering... you're a hypocrite. You care about the environment, but you skipped the beach cleanup... you're clearly a poser. It's ridiculous

You are soooo correct. Except i find it more than just ridiculous. I find it very concerning for our long term future.

 

[SharpeScooterShooter]

I'm not even sure how a civil war would work here in the US...

Who would be attacking who? How would you know who's side you're on? What's the target? What's the goal?

I think it would likely devolve into chaos and be the start of a world war as other countries around the world look to take advantage of our internal conflicts. I believe if the states go to civil war, the world will go to world war.

 

[Phatguysrule]

I think it would likely devolve into chaos and be the start of a world war as other countries around the world look to take advantage of our internal conflicts. I believe if the states go to civil war, the world will go to world war.

I don't even know how the states would go to war with each other...

 

[barfo]

I think it would likely devolve into chaos and be the start of a world war as other countries around the world look to take advantage of our internal conflicts. I believe if the states go to civil war, the world will go to world war.

And then the galaxy will go to galactic war, and the universe will go to universal war.

And then we can escape to the alternate universe where Spock has a beard, which will necessarily be peaceful.

barfo

 

[barfo]

I don't think the states go to war with each other. That doesn't actually make sense.
I can imagine the government losing control, and the gradual rise of gangs and warlords who control certain territories.

barfo

 

[Phatguysrule]

I don't think the states go to war with each other. That doesn't actually make sense.
I can imagine the government losing control, and the gradual rise of gangs and warlords who control certain territories.

barfo

Yeah... Maybe. Like the Malheur wildlife refuge occupation or something... But on a larger scale?

 

[oldfisherman]

Or....

The majority of people in 12 counties vote to leave and become part of another state.

Reason, after 30 years of continuous total control and dictatorship of the state and largest cities by one party. And their voice not being heard. They want to move to a state that offers a more balanced representation.

Hey, 30 years of democratic elected dictatorship is anocracy.

 

[SharpeScooterShooter]

I don't even know how the states would go to war with each other...

I should have been clearer. Not states fighting each other. The united states fighting each other.
I agree. I dont know what it would look like. But every picture i paint in my head is not pretty. At all.

 

[Phatguysrule]

Or....

The majority of people in 12 counties vote to leave and become part of another state.

Reason, after 30 years of continuous total control and dictatorship of the state and largest cities by one party. And their voice not being heard. They want to move to a state that offers a more balanced representation.

Hey, 30 years of democratic elected dictatorship is anocracy.

Would be awesome if an alternative that wasn't horribly unpopular or batshit crazy would run... Last one was who, Chris Dudley?

 

[SharpeScooterShooter]

I don't think the states go to war with each other. That doesn't actually make sense.
I can imagine the government losing control, and the gradual rise of gangs and warlords who control certain territories.

barfo

Essentially what i meant. Nothing like this state is blue and this is red, now standoff.

Think more along the lines of hundreds of autonomous zones popping up, each with their own warlord aNd set of rules. 1st would to be to defy all current government and create a simplistic set of new governing rules for each community. People will then flock to the ones they agree with/ believe in.

 

[Phatguysrule]

I should have been clearer. Not states fighting each other. The united states fighting each other.
I agree. I dont know what it would look like. But every picture i paint in my head is not pretty. At all.

I can't even wrap my head around it... Who would be on what side? How would they determine the enemy?

Only thing I could think of (that has any real likelihood of happening) would be the next Trump winning the Presidency and going full dictator, then the masses rising up...

 

[SharpeScooterShooter]

Essentially what i meant. Nothing like this state is blue and this is red, now standoff.

Think more along the lines of hundreds of autonomous zones popping up, each with their own warlord aNd set of rules. 1st would to be to defy all current government and create a simplistic set of new governing rules for each community. People will then flock to the ones they agree with/ believe in.

I can't even wrap my head around it... Who would be on what side? How would they determine the enemy?

Only thing I could think of (that has any real likelihood of happening) would be the next Trump winning the Presidency and going full dictator, then the masses rising up...

Something like the above, im thinking, but after that? I only see blood and chaos.

 

[barfo]

I can't even wrap my head around it... Who would be on what side? How would they determine the enemy?

Only thing I could think of (that has any real likelihood of happening) would be the next Trump winning the Presidency and going full dictator, then the masses rising up...

The other way it happens is that misinformation and the lack of real news leads to the population losing whatever remaining faith they have that the government is legitimate. People gradually start ignoring the laws, police look the other way, and/or start taking protection money. The government tries to crack down, loses even more moral authority. People start sabotaging shit for various reasons. Communication networks fail or only work intermittently. Shipping requires paying off various illegal toll collectors. Food supply runs short. Hungry people get even more lawless. barfo gradually takes control, backed by his supermodel army. Peace and prosperity return. Everyone lives happily ever after. The end.

barfo

 

[riverman]

I don't see a Civil War as much as I see a few states splintering off from the United States and forming their own republic. I think it'll be more of a moving of borders than a war. Personally I'd Trade Florida to Mexico for Baja California rather than get nothing back and letting them walk.

 

[Phatguysrule]

I don't see a Civil War as much as I see a few states splintering off from the United States and forming their own republic. I think it'll be more of a moving of borders than a war. Personally I'd Trade Florida to Mexico for Baja California rather than get nothing back and letting them walk.

We wouldn't let Florida splinter off. Or even Texas. That's just a non starter. Most of the population of both would rather remain in the US... So they don't have the support.

I just don't see this as very likely at all.

 

[Phatguysrule]

Something like the above, im thinking, but after that? I only see blood and chaos.

This just seems highly unlikely to me. I don't think there are enough like minded people who want any part of that. Especially if the subsidies those areas receive go away.

 

[oldfisherman]

The other way it happens is that misinformation and the lack of real news

barfo

Real news?

The last real and accurate news show went off the air in 1973.

Not only did it accurately report past and present news. It was supprising accurate at forecasting the news 20 years into the future.

I really miss Laugh-in.

 

[riverman]

We wouldn't let Florida splinter off. Or even Texas. That's just a non starter. Most of the population of both would rather remain in the US... So they don't have the support.

I just don't see this as very likely at all.

Hawaii has lobbied to become independent many, many times although they haven't succeeded yet due to mainlanders having so much political power but all throughout history countries have splintered...Yugoslavia, USSR, Bavaria, India splintered as did part of China.and on and on....it's not uncommon but it requires a majority of the population to get on board. Texas has threatened to secede from the US recently. The OP here is "Civil War" but I predict splintering will occur before war ever will here. The US govt is just too well armed for an armed rebellion to succeed. Alaska once belonged to Russia.

 

[Phatguysrule]

Hawaii has lobbied to become independent many, many times although they haven't succeeded yet due to mainlanders having so much political power but all throughout history countries have splintered...Yugoslavia, USSR, Bavaria, on and on....it's not uncommon but it requires a majority of the population to get on board. Texas has threatened to secede from the US recently. The OP here is "Civil War" but I predict splintering will occur before war ever will here. The US govt is just too well armed for an armed rebellion to succeed.

I agree that the US govt is too well armed for an armed rebellion to succeed, or even get started (unless somebody like Trump is in power and goes too far).

But also, the well armed govt would have to agree to allow any state to secede. And I just don't see that happening. It would be too big of a security risk, IMO.

 

[riverman]

I agree that the US govt is too well armed for an armed rebellion to succeed, or even get started (unless somebody like Trump is in power and goes too far).

But also, the well armed govt would have to agree to allow any state to seceed. And I just don't see that happening.

It happened with China and Taiwan when Sun Yat Sen and Chiang Kai Shek moved the KMT party to the island and splintered off from China even though China was a more powerful army.

 

[Phatguysrule]

It happened with China and Taiwan when Sun Yat Sen and Chiang Kai Shek moved the KMT party to the island and splintered off from China even though China was a more powerful army.

True. I think Hawaii would be far more likely than any mainland states, for sure. But China has never had enough ships to control Taiwan. They literally can't get enough people there to invade. They'd lose over a million people. China has been able to control the mainland based on boots on the ground. No such luck for Taiwan. China would have to go scorched earth to take back Taiwan. And if they did that, there would be no strategic benefit to taking Taiwan. Unless they just wanted themselves to be isolated from the rest of the world, relying only on countries like Russia, North Korea, and Iran...

And all of those countries are in for a VERY rough next couple decades.

The US doesn't have any of those problems.

I would think Hawaii would just negotiate with the rest of the US and work it out.

I'm not saying it's impossible, it's just hard for me to imagine.

 

[theprunetang]

Hope one bucket of coffee is enough to respond in a way that makes sense. This is a very important topic, and one I have given a lot of thought to.

One of the sadest things about getting older is watching how divided our people have become. We have always had differences, but we worked together to find the best solution. People today have way too much hate and poison in their hearts. This only pushes us futher apart.

Rather than point fingures at who has caused this. (There is plenty of blame to go around to all sides.) I am trying to find the root cause, and how to fix it.

I am a firm believer in the checks and balances provided by our two party system. However I believe it is flawed, flaws that have fueled this division. Our two party system is in need of reforms.

We need to stop people from declaring if they are a Dem or Rep. Everyone should be an independent.

More important. We should no longer alow voting for everyone on a party ticket. Think about it. If you only voted for everyone in one party, over the long run, 50% of the time, you have voted for the person that will not get the better results.

We should be voting for the best politician that has a history proven to get the best results for the most people. And stop voting for the politician or party that supports a special interest, while ignoring what is important to others.

Short version, vote for the person, not issues. The issues divide us. The best politicians know how to handle the issues to achieve the best results, and bring us back together.

In a vacuum, this all seems great and I generally agree with you. However, when one side of the equation is aligning with Nazis, there is no comparison between "sides". I know you are looking for solutions and not just trying to assess blame, but the conservative party in America is beyond saving, and not a single person who still calls themselves a republican is worthy of a vote. You cannot vote for the goddamned Nazi party.

 

[tlongII]

No.