It's all about surviving till March

[BonesJones]

In our last 22 games, we play 15 teams that .500 and below. The 7 gashes against teams .500 are all easily winnable (Except against SAS)
The >.500 games:

@OKC, @SAS, vs. NYK, vs. HOU, @UTA, vs. UTA, vs. SAS

During that stretch we have 13 at home, 9 on the road.

Even with the way were playing now, we could go 14-8 during that stretch.

However, we'll likely upgrade at the deadline, and we might have a healthy Ezeli by that point, so 16-6, even 17-5 isn't inconceivable.

So if we're at .500 by March, we still would have a very realistic shot at 45-47 wins, which could be good enough for 4th maybe 5th.

So while we struggle early in the season, were facing our hardest stretch of schedule, and as long as we keep in touch with a .500 record, I think we'll be fine.

 

[BigGameDamian]

2 games under .500 now.

 

[BonesJones]

2 games under .500 now.

Yeah, with a really pretty difficult schedule to play early in the season.

 

[illmatic99]

Said as much when the schedule came out

 

[Cippy91]

Inb4 Neil makes no trade moves and the world ends

 

[BonesJones]

Said as much when the schedule came out

People seem to forget.

 

[Boob-No-More]

2 games under .500 now.

10-15 at this time last year. What's your point (I'm being generous and assuming you have one)?

BNM

 

[Chris Craig]

10-15 at this time last year. What's your point (I'm being generous and assuming you have one)?

BNM

So we just have to wait for the second half of the season run

 

[Boob-No-More]

So we just have to wait for the second half of the season run

Which I thought was the point of this thread.

BNM

 

[Kaydow]

The schedule has been brutal, and it does get much friendlier after the AS break. But the 12-14 start, the defense, it's still pretty dissapointing. It LOOKS like there might be a lot more wins out there later in the season, IF we stay together & stay healthy. (You just can't assume wins in this league) BUT, if you're looking for a reason not to jump over the ledge as a Blazer fan, the schedule lightening up is as good as any!

 

[KingSpeed]

Amen. We were 11-20 last year and still managed the 5 seed. It's a long season.

 

[BigGameDamian]

Amen. We were 11-20 last year and still managed the 5 seed. It's a long season.

The west also got stronger my friend.

 

[jlprk]

10-15 at this time last year. What's your point (I'm being generous and assuming you have one)?

So we just have to wait for the second half of the season run

Which I thought was the point of this thread.

You asked for the point. You were told, and you said you already knew that. What is your point?

 

[Boob-No-More]

The west also got stronger my friend.

In theory, but I seriously doubt it any of the following happen:

GSW wins more than 73 games

SAS wins more than 67 games

OKC wins more than 55 games

The 140 combined wins by the Warriors and Spurs were an NBA record by 8 games.

Any improvement by GSW gaining Durant is offset by a decline for OKC by losing him.

So while GSW looks better on paper, the top three teams in the West are very unlikely to combine for more than the 195 combined wins they had last year. Fewer wins for the top three teams means more wins for the middle seeds. Can the Blazers be one of the middle seeded teams that takes advantage of this?

The opportunity is there, but they need start winning these close games they've been losing lately. They had the same problem at the beginning of last season with multiple heartbreaking losses in November and early December. It will be interesting to see if they can turn things around this year, like they did last year. The schedule is certainly favorable for such a turnaround. Tonight's win was a good start.

BNM

 

[BonesJones]

In theory, but I seriously doubt it any of the following happen:

GSW wins more than 73 games

SAS wins more than 67 games

OKC wins more than 55 games

The 140 combined wins by the Warriors and Spurs were an NBA record by 8 games.

Any improvement by GSW gaining Durant is offset by a decline for OKC by losing him.

So while GSW looks better on paper, the top three teams in the West are very unlikely to combine for more than the 195 combined wins they had last year. Fewer wins for the top three teams means more wins for the middle seeds. Can the Blazers be one of the middle seeded teams that takes advantage of this?

The opportunity is there, but they need start winning these close games they've been losing lately. They had the same problem at the beginning of last season with multiple heartbreaking losses in November and early December. It will be interesting to see if they can turn things around this year, like they did last year. The schedule is certainly favorable for such a turnaround. Tonight's win was a good start.

BNM

With the way this schedule lines up, I'm confident we'll be 18-17 by the new year.

27-23 by February
33-26 by March
45-31 by April
and finish out with a 49-33 record.

We'll see how close I am. I think 49-33 would be good for the 5th seed.
So essentially, if we have the record I stated for each month, we're on pace for 49 wins, just based off strength of schedule.

 

[BonesJones]

We've also had a very tough schedule compared to the teams above us.

4.) Houston
12 games against .500 and above
13 against teams under .500
10 Home / 15 Road

5.) Memphis
9 games against .500 and above
17 against teams under .500
14 Home / 12 Road

6.) Oklahoma City
11 games against .500 and above
14 against teams under .500
15 Home / 10 Road

7.) Utah
10 games against .500 and above
15 against teams under .500
13 Home / 12 Road

8.) Portland
16 games against .500 and above
11 against teams under .500
12 Home / 15 Road
(Soon it will be 12 Home, 19 Road)

 

[Chris Craig]

We are 13-14 with a 8-4 record at home, a 5-10 record on the road, and a 4-0 record against division rivals, with a 5-5 record in our last ten games.

Last year at this time we had a 10-14 record with a 5-5 record at home, a 5-9 record on the road, a 3-1 record against the division rivals, with a 5-5 record in the last ten games played.

So, basically the Blazers are playing better at home, havent dropped the ball against division rivals, and just as has been said already, the tougher schedule is what is hurting us...we've played the clippers 3 times already, twice on the road, the Cavs on the road, come Saturday we will have played GS twice...that said there are some games we should have won, but comparably we are actually playing better this year.

The question is come the second half, are the Blazers gonna have a run like last year, where they played at a high level with 9-2 in Febuary?

I think they can. But, unlike last year Olshey is likely to make a move or two that could see more than a few players exiting the Moda Center locker roim, the team's chemistry possibly with them. I guess all we can do is wait, and go along for the ride. The hope is the Blazers stop hitting speed bumps and make something of this season. So far the ride has been almost boring, but it's not as bad as it seems.

 

[BigGameDamian]

Can we do it? That's the question.

 

[Nikolokolus]

Can we do it? That's the question.

Yes. That is a question.