It's time for CJ McCollum to go.

[hoopsjock]

What PG did Kobe ever play with as good as, or with as high usage as Dame? We've all long thought that if forced to play PG full time, CJ would look a lot better.

But that doesn't account for why CJ's numbers have plummeted with nearly the same usage rates all 5 seasons. Every singly stat proves that he dribbles more and passes less when he has the ball each season since his breakout one.

 

[illmatic99]

I did this last year in a thread about CJ where I collated all his numbers in games without Dame in his career. He put up something lke 25-7a-4r, pretty much Dame numbers. Didn't pull AST% from that, but I'm sure one could.

Difference in his assist numbers were stark though, when compared to games in which Dame played. Wish I could find that post.

 

[hoopsjock]

Yea, but i didn't see this shitstorm going on for 5 seasons.

We'll get back to winning soon and people will calm down.

Really? There have been lots of people on here throughout the years that have disliked the way CJ plays. I loved the way he played in 2015-16 and 2016-17. I wish he would go back to being that player.

Heck if he played like he did in the 1st quarter of the Spurs game, he'd make an ALL-NBA team.

 

[wizenheimer]

That’s per yeah bruh

which = salary

 

[hoopsjock]

I did this last year in a thread about CJ where I collated all his numbers in games without Dame in his career. He put up something lke 25-7a-4r, pretty much Dame numbers. Didn't pull AST% from that, but I'm sure one could.

Difference in his assist numbers were stark though, when compared to games in which Dame played. Wish I could find that post.

I totally agree that if he was a full time point guard that his numbers would be different but that still doesn't explain how in his current role he doesn't pass as much as he did in prior years.

 

[Blazers Roy]

Really? There have been lots of people on here throughout the years that have disliked the way CJ plays. I loved the way he played in 2015-16 and 2016-17. I wish he would go back to being that player.

Heck if he played like he did in the 1st quarter of the Spurs game, he'd make an ALL-NBA team.

I wonder if our offense as a whole looked this stagnant in 2015-2016-2017. Too bad i deleted all these games from my hard drive.

 

[illmatic99]

I totally agree that if he was a full time point guard that his numbers would be different but that still doesn't explain how in his current role he doesn't pass as much as he did in prior years.

Not trying to be contrarian, but i think most of CJ's passing/assists usually come when Dame is on the bench and CJ ran the show. Maybe it's anecdotal, but it's something. Don't think we can just blindly look at stats without looking at personnel or role.

Primary Backup PGs
2015/16: CJ, Tim Frazier for 35 games, Brian Roberts for 21 games (neither of these two played even 10 mpg)
2016/17: CJ, Napier for 53 games (9.7 mpg)
2017/18: Napier (74 games --21 mpg), Wade Baldwin (7 games, 11 mpg), CJ
2018/19: Turner (73 games, 22 mpg), Seth Curry (74 games, 19 mpg), CJ
2019/20: Simons (13 games, 21 mpg), CJ

I don't think it's a coincidence.

 

[wizenheimer]

What PG did Kobe ever play with as good as, or with as high usage as Dame? We've all long thought that if forced to play PG full time, CJ would look a lot better.

good, then trade him to a team where he can play PG so he can "blossom"

but that doesn't explain why so many other wings seem to find a way to be play-makers when playing with a PG

and by the way, CJ has spent about half of his minutes over the last 4 years playing PG when Dame is on the bench. It's not like he hasn't had the opportunity to improve his play-making. He has...he simply hasn't improved but instead has become worse. The excuses for CJ's flaws are amazing

 

[illmatic99]

good, then trade him to a team where he can play PG so he can "blossom"

but that doesn't explain why so many other wings seem to find a way to be play-makers when playing with a PG

and by the way, CJ has spent about half of his minutes over the last 4 years playing PG when Dame is on the bench. It's not like he hasn't had the opportunity to improve his play-making. He has...he simply hasn't improved but instead has become worse. The excuses for CJ's flaws are amazing

Dude, I am one of the people who have advocated for trading CJ this year. That has more to do with Ant's development and improvement than anything else, but maybe just read the post above yours to see what I'm talking about? It's not an excuse. It's facts supported with evidence.

 

[hoopsjock]

Not trying to be contrarian, but i think most of CJ's passing/assists usually come when Dame was on the bench and CJ ran the show. Maybe it's anecdotal, but it's something. Don't think we can just blindly look at stats without looking at personnel or role.

Primary Backup PGs
2015/16: CJ, Tim Frazier for 35 games, Brian Roberts for 21 games (neither of these two played even 10 mpg)
2016/17: CJ, Napier for 53 games (9.7 mpg)
2017/18: Napier (74 games --21 mpg), Wade Baldwin (7 games, 11 mpg), CJ
2018/19: Turner (73 games, 22 mpg), Seth Curry (74 games, 19 mpg), CJ
2019/20: Simons (13 games, 21 mpg), CJ

I don't think it's a coincidence.

But there is no reason why CJ can't do similar things in his current role. Sure the assists per game might not be as high but passes and assist% there is really no excuse for if he's touching the ball the same amount of time he was in those seasons.

 

[illmatic99]

But there is no reason why CJ can't do similar things in his current role. Sure the assists per game might not be as high but passes and assist% there is really no excuse for if he's touching the ball the same amount of time he was in those seasons.

He's definitely gunning it more, this is all eye test. The Spurs game was a revelation and it was clear someone tore into him in a film session-- let's see if he sustains it. I have never seen him make as many extra passes like he did that game.

 

[TorturedBlazerFan]

He's definitely gunning it more. The Spurs game was a revelation-- let's see if he sustains it.

He didn't even really sustain it in the 2nd half... lol

 

[illmatic99]

He didn't even really sustain it in the 2nd half... lol

Neither did Dame. I think these guys do that when they perceive the game slipping away.

 

[hoopsjock]

He's definitely gunning it more, this is all eye test. The Spurs game was a revelation and it was clear someone tore into him in a film session-- let's see if he sustains it. I have never seen him make as many extra passes like he did that game.

Like I said, he'd be All-NBA if he played more like that. It's why I'm so frustrated with him sometimes. He's proven he can play like that. He's even said himself that his passing needs to be better while not actually committing to it.

 

[TorturedBlazerFan]

Neither did Dame. I think these guys do that when they perceive the game slipping away.

That's kind of fair. The difference is I think Dame's better so if someone's gonna go into hero ball mode most of the time I'd rather it was Dame than CJ.

 

[wizenheimer]

Dude, I am one of the people who have advocated for trading CJ this year. That has more to do with Ant's development and improvement than anything else, but maybe just read the post above yours to see what I'm talking about? It's not an excuse. It's facts supported with evidence.

here are some other facts:

FGA's:
2015-16 17.9 2016-17 18.0 2017-18 18.6 2018-19 17.8 2019-20 20.5

usage:
2015-16 27.1 2016-17 27.5 2017-18 26.5 2018-19 25.5 2019-20 26.2

* between 2015-16 and last season, his FGA's dropped 0.56%; and his usage dropped 5.9%

* meanwhile, his assists/game dropped 30.2% and his assist rate dropped 36.1%.

those are really significant differentials that indicate CJ's 4 year trend of declining play-making is not a function of less opportunity

 

[illmatic99]

here are some other facts:

FGA's:
2015-16 17.9 2016-17 18.0 2017-18 18.6 2018-19 17.8 2019-20 20.5

usage:
2015-16 27.1 2016-17 27.5 2017-18 26.5 2018-19 25.5 2019-20 26.2

* between 2015-16 and last season, his FGA's dropped 0.56%; and his usage dropped 5.9%

* meanwhile, his assists/game dropped 30.2% and his assist rate dropped 36.1%.

those are really significant differentials that indicate CJ's 4 year trend of declining play-making is not a function of less opportunity

Opportunity is not the same as role. When CJ is on the floor with Dame/Napier/Turner, he is more likely to shoot than distribute. And honestly, this year, I'm sorta OK with him jacking shots instead of passing it to the likes of Tolliver or Mario. When he misses open shooters in the corner is what bugs me most.

 

[noknobs]

CJ's Numbers

2015-16
Passes per game: 45.6
Potential assists per game: 9.4

2016-17
Passes per game: 39.7
Potential assists per game: 7.9

2017-18
Passes per game: 35.0
Potential assists per game: 7.1

2018-19
Passes per game: 30.8
Potential assists per game: 6.2

There you go. Undeniable proof that CJ has become a ball hog but is capable of passing more.

My interpretation of the data: When CJ passes less we get to the WCF.

 

[wizenheimer]

Opportunity is not the same as role. When CJ is on the floor with Dame/Napier/Turner, he is more likely to shoot than distribute.

I don't think that's a valid equation, but if you can somehow break down the time CJ has spent with Dame on the floor over the years, maybe there's something there. But I'm sure not buying that the reason for CJ's declining assist rate is ET or Napier

look at these numbers about CJ's shot clock usage for shooting:

2015-16:
0-10 seconds - 36%....11-15 seconds - 25%....61%

2016-17:
0-10 seconds - 36%....11-15 seconds - 27%....63%

2017-18:
0-10 seconds - 44%....11-15 seconds - 24%....68%

2018-19:
0-10 seconds - 46%....11-15 seconds - 24%....73%

now, it's possible there are other explanations, and I'm sure CJ fans will come up with something....but that sure looks like the numbers of somebody who has looked for their own offense, more and more often, rather than the teams' offense, over a 4 year period. It looks like somebody who has become steadily more prone to get the ball early in the shot clock and shoot it himself. It looks a lot like somebody developing a worse and worse case of hooplock

 

[maxiep]

Everyone is having to adjust to one another. We all talked about how it would take at least 20 games for this team to gel, for people to figure out their roles. Ripping on the fact CJ is struggling seems to me to be too hasty. If we got in someone who did everything CJ didn't, we would complain that we were then missing all the things that CJ does. Dame and CJ like each other, work well, are good leaders and want to be here. That's incredibly rare.

 

[wizenheimer]

Everyone is having to adjust to one another. We all talked about how it would take at least 20 games for this team to gel, for people to figure out their roles. Ripping on the fact CJ is struggling seems to me to be too hasty..

ok and that's valid, but almost all of the discussions that have taken place in this thread over the last 5 or 6 pages have been about CJ from 2015-16 thru last season, not what's he's doing this season

 

[SIeepwalker]

while you were playing college basketball I was studying statistics and social sciences. I think the latter gives one a far better understanding of how to interpret data of this sort.

smh

 

[BonesJones]

the point is that the best shots that CJ is assigned to are often much harder shots than say, someone like Whiteside shot. The plays that are run for CJ routinely break down to where a mid range jumper is the best available shot. The plays run for whiteside routinely break down where a dunk attempt is the best available shot.

the fact that you’re trying to obscure this obvious fact shows how useless analytics are. Anyone can cherry pick stats and ignore the context (“omg, a center has a higher effective fg% than a guard! The guard must suck!” Or “omg, CJ shoots a lower effective % than JJ reddick, clearly CJ is worse than Reddick!”)

analytics are useful when used in good faith. That’s not what you’re doing. You’re cherry picking stats to make invalid points and ignoring all context to those stats (e.g. shooting guards are expected to have lower shooting averages than all other positions, e.g. shooting guards like CJ that are expected to create their own shot will naturally shoot lower percentages than someone like Reddick who primarily shoots off-screen only).

while you were playing college basketball I was studying statistics and social sciences. I think the latter gives one a far better understanding of how to interpret data of this sort.

Ive studied statistics as well. Quit being pompous.

 

[Natebishop3]

Ive studied statistics as well. Quit being pompous.

While you were studying statistics, I was studying the blade...

 

[Strenuus]

Yea, but i didn't see this shitstorm going on for 5 seasons.

We'll get back to winning soon and people will calm down.

Then you must have me on ignore. Lol

 

[Blazers Roy]

Then you must have me on ignore. Lol

No i don't have anyone on ignore.
This forum was always this mixture of hype and then falling into whining about any player on the team including Lillard.

Now it's like a hoard of zombies moaning to trade CJ at every page and every thread, you ask them who they want in return and they reply with stat lines they memorized from basketball reference.

 

[Blazers1977]

Kobe Bryant's AST% from 1999-2015:
22.4
23.0
25.9
27.2
24.4
28.5
24.1
25.5
23.9
23.8
23.8
26.7
23.7
29.7
34.6
29.9

CJ McCollum's last year:
13.8

That means that for pretty much his entire career Kobe was nearly twice as good of a passer as CJ is. It's a stupid argument, period.

Do I need to show you CJ's "hockey" assist numbers, because you do know I have those as well?

1) you chose one year of CJ’s numbers when he had low assists

2) this isn’t responsive to my points about assists being a secondary stat. Your comment also misrepresents my position and portrays my illustrative example about hockey assists as if it were my entire argument.

3) Kobe has the ball much more often than CJ.

 

[hoopsjock]

1) you chose one year of CJ’s numbers when he had low assists

2) this isn’t responsive to my points about assists being a secondary stat. Your comment also misrepresents my position and portrays my illustrative example about hockey assists as if it were my entire argument.

3) Kobe has the ball much more often than CJ.

Spoiler alert: CJ doesn't have a single season better than any of those 16 by Kobe.

You lost man.

 

[Blazers1977]

Ive studied statistics as well. Quit being pompous.

you: ‘I’m more qualified to speak on the topic of statistics than you . I played college basketball.’ (Paraphrasing)

me: “I’m qualified to speak on the topic of statistics. I studied statistics and social science for years.”

You: “stop being pompous.”

 

[Blazers1977]

Spoiler alert: CJ doesn't have a single season better than any of those 16 by Kobe.

You lost man.

Spoiler alert: Kobe had the ball way more than CJ and you’re comparing apples to oranges.

Being worse than Kobe doesn’t mean you’re a scrub.