John Hollinger's Playoff Odds

[Terkish]

Not sure if anyone's posted this yet. Full page found here.

He gives the Blazers a 99.8% to make the playoffs and 10.6% chance at winning it all (half a percent higher than Miami to 3-peat).

 

[DaLincolnJones]

my gawd..look at the east..shameful

 

[mook]

How accurate was Hollinger last year?

 

[julius]

How accurate was Hollinger last year?

He predicted Obama would win easily.

 

[Rhal]

How accurate was Hollinger last year?

It changes after every game. Its based off of the formula they used to make his power rankings as well. It goes off of stats and trends the team has shown.

 

[mook]

It changes after every game. Its based off of the formula they used to make his power rankings as well. It goes off of stats and trends the team has shown.

Well, then how accurate was his prediction around December 20th or so last year?

I wish there was a law that every prediction included results from the prior year's exact same prediction. The penalty would be to have to read everybody else's predictions.

If you want to say you know it all, shouldn't you first prove you also knew it all last year?

 

[Public Defender]

Interesting that the Blazers are basically a lock to make the playoffs, but have less than a 1-in-3 chance to make it out of the first round. Hollinger must have some factor in there that teams that didn't make the playoffs last season are less likely to advance - or maybe he's factoring in Portland's history...?

 

[Rhal]

Interesting that the Blazers are basically a lock to make the playoffs, but have less than a 1-in-3 chance to make it out of the first round. Hollinger must have some factor in there that teams that didn't make the playoffs last season are less likely to advance - or maybe he's factoring in Portland's history...?

Its the D rank. If our D was better wed be higher up, this 4 games in 5 nights killed our D and its dropped us to 24th D rating I believe.

Sent from my SPH-L710 using Tapatalk

 

[Carlito]

Wow minny gets lots of love.

Jesus there was no pub intended there.

 

[julius]

Wow minny gets lots of love.

Jesus there was no pub intended there.

haha, claim it!

 

[PtldPlatypus]

Interesting that the Blazers are basically a lock to make the playoffs, but have less than a 1-in-3 chance to make it out of the first round. Hollinger must have some factor in there that teams that didn't make the playoffs last season are less likely to advance - or maybe he's factoring in Portland's history...?

Call me dense, but I don't see odds on winning a playoff series. Just odds of winning the conference or league championship. The 32.0 is odds of winning the division.

 

[Public Defender]

Call me dense, but I don't see odds on winning a playoff series. Just odds of winning the conference or league championship. The 32.0 is odds of winning the division.

Pardon me, looks like I'm the dense one. I was assuming that the Divisional column was meant to be the first round odds. Of course, the chances of winning a first round series have to depend largely on the opponent and who has homecourt advantage. Doesn't make sense to project those odds without knowing more.

So, Hollinger is basically saying that 25 games in, the Northwest Division will be won by either Oklahoma City (66%) or Portland (32%). Literally no chance that Denver bounces back to win it, and a snowball's chance in somewhere other than Minnesota that the T-Wolves leap ahead.