Forum Game JUST DO IT: Predict upcoming contract for Nurkic

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what contract will nurk get

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this can be done in a quantitative way instead of randomly pulling a number out of thin air like you did. Maybe we compare his VORP and win shares with other centers and see how he fares... Maybe that's what the team does

ok...in 8 seasons, Nurkic 23.3 WS (2.9/year); 6.1 VORP (.76/year)

Jarret Allen in 5 seasons, 34.9 WS (6.98/year); 8.5 VORP (1.7/year) - 20M/year contract

Steven Adams in 9 seasons, 56.0 WS (6.2/year); 11.3 VORP (1.3/year) - 17.5M/year contract

Jonas Valuciunas in 10 seasons, 67.4 WS (6.74/year); 14.3 VORP (1.43/year) - 14.7M/year contract

using the two metrics you mentioned, it seems hard to justify Nurkic making more than his current 12M/salary
 
ok...in 8 seasons, Nurkic 23.3 WS (2.9/year); 6.1 VORP (.76/year)

Jarret Allen in 5 seasons, 34.9 WS (6.98/year); 8.5 VORP (1.7/year) - 20M/year contract

Steven Adams in 9 seasons, 56.0 WS (6.2/year); 11.3 VORP (1.3/year) - 17.5M/year contract

Jonas Valuciunas in 10 seasons, 67.4 WS (6.74/year); 14.3 VORP (1.43/year) - 14.7M/year contract

using the two metrics you mentioned, it seems hard to justify Nurkic making more than his current 12M/salary
thanks for that. winshares already takes into account games played. think you're double correcting, no?
 
thanks for that. winshares already takes into account games played. think you're double correcting, no?

not really double correcting...using winshares to illustrate that missing lots of games due to injury explicitly impacts value
 
I know I am not the only one disgusted sometimes with our usage of Nurkic in the past. Throw him the ball just inside the 3-point line and see what happens.

When Justise Winslow arrived, everything changed. Nurk and Winslow worked together passing and cutting , give-and-go over and over making Nurkic very difficult to keep from scoring easy buckets.

If the player and ball movement we saw with Nurk before he was shut down continue, he should have a very good 2022-23 season.

I wonder how the offense and Nurkic would look without Winslow. It might not be as effective.
 
I think many of you are setting yourselves up for extreme disappointment in both the Nurkic and Simons contract threads. I think the market value is higher for both players at the moment than many of you believe.

The market very well may be higher. But I don't believe that 'market' value is the same as what they are worth for their contract. Every year there are players that get WAY overpaid....and it hamstrings the franchises over and over again. We will pay Ant to be the heir apparent to Dame.....while he has to play another position that isn't what Dame plays and isn't what Ant played last year when he was putting up big numbers. Nurk will get good money because there are few decent big men available.....but not because he is that great.
 
The market very well may be higher. But I don't believe that 'market' value is the same as what they are worth for their contract. Every year there are players that get WAY overpaid....and it hamstrings the franchises over and over again. We will pay Ant to be the heir apparent to Dame.....while he has to play another position that isn't what Dame plays and isn't what Ant played last year when he was putting up big numbers. Nurk will get good money because there are few decent big men available.....but not because he is that great.
Well, sure. Unfortunately though, when it comes to free agency you're always paying players in the market. If it makes people feel better though, I have a hard time believing that either player will be "WAY overpaid." Might Nurk and Simons get a couple more million per year then we would like? Possibly, but the difference in perception and effect is probably negligible. Assuming they both stay healthy and maintain a reasonable level of play based on the track record they've shown, they'll be movable contracts with reasonable value. And if disaster strikes or their play falls off drastically, it really doesn't matter if Nurk is making 14 million per year or 17 million per year. He's a bad contract and negative asset regardless.

The bigger issue for me is far more about their salaries preventing or allowing other team acquisition tools to be used (type of MLE, etc.). The concern is less their value on these contracts when we're splitting hairs between a couple million per year. It would be far worse value in our current state to lose either player for nothing.
 
Exactly. We will overpay Nurk and folks will say we got him to a good deal.

Powell was signed to a good deal last year then everyone turned on him when Joe decided to dump him. Then the contract was downright awful.

For some, the team can do no wrong.
 
The compromise will be one less year but a little higher average per year than he probably should get.

I think that's fair considering they have his bird rights and it doesn't really matter that much if he gets $12 million or more. Might as well try to keep him happy.
 
Exactly. We will overpay Nurk and folks will say we got him to a good deal.

Powell was signed to a good deal last year then everyone turned on him when Joe decided to dump him. Then the contract was downright awful.

For some, the team can do no wrong.
Regardless of the forum, some just post for likes. You can get that by skewing positive

STOMP
 
I know I am not the only one disgusted sometimes with our usage of Nurkic in the past. Throw him the ball just inside the 3-point line and see what happens.

When Justise Winslow arrived, everything changed. Nurk and Winslow worked together passing and cutting , give-and-go over and over making Nurkic very difficult to keep from scoring easy buckets.

If the player and ball movement we saw with Nurk before he was shut down continue, he should have a very good 2022-23 season.

I wonder how the offense and Nurkic would look without Winslow. It might not be as effective.
I know I'm not the only one who is sick of hearing about how informative a ten game sample size is. Let's stop talking about the games we had after the trades and before everyone sat... they are irrelevant. No one had those combinations of players scouted and by the time they could have we sat all of their asses down. So what Justise could do with Nurk was catch every defense off guard and capitalize on it. I'm not saying that I'm not excited to have Justise back for next season at 4M... I think he's going to be great off the bench as long as he can stay healthy because he plays with high BBIQ on both ends and has a well rounded skillset but before you say that the way he played with Nurk is the best way to maximize Nurk, let's see it replicated a bit more.

I like Nurk, he seems well intended. He works hard on defense, with great results as long as you make him feel really special (which let's face it due to his limitations you can't always do) and he is a very good high and low post facilitator when he's not being too flashy, along with being an effective scorer inside when he decides to forego the bullshit flip up shots. If he did away with the pouting, could stay healthy, kept his passing simple and finished strong in the paint then he'd be worth a four year contract that starts at 18M and escalating from there. The problem is he's just never done that consistently. I mean the Bosnian Beast works comes out about nine more times a year than Punxsutawney Phil. So the most he should get is 15M next season and since we will sign him for three or four seasons with raises in the salary every season, only the first two seasons should be guaranteed.
 
Starting center Jusuf Nurkic appears destined to be a part of the Blazers' future, with a belief among league personnel he will sign a four-year deal worth roughly $17 million in average annual value.

thats what jake fischer said and its around of what i expect nurk to get (4/70+)
 
Regardless of the forum, some just post for likes. You can get that by skewing positive

STOMP
Not saying you are wrong at all. I guess i just never really thought about it that way?
 
thats what jake fischer said and its around of what i expect nurk to get (4/70+)
If that's what he gets he'll likely get 16M next season and annual increases from there that get the contract to 70M over the four years and I hope there's a team option for year four. I'd be OK with that overpay.
 
I know I'm not the only one who is sick of hearing about how informative a ten game sample size is. Let's stop talking about the games we had after the trades and before everyone sat... they are irrelevant. No one had those combinations of players scouted and by the time they could have we sat all of their asses down. So what Justise could do with Nurk was catch every defense off guard and capitalize on it. I'm not saying that I'm not excited to have Justise back for next season at 4M... I think he's going to be great off the bench as long as he can stay healthy because he plays with high BBIQ on both ends and has a well rounded skillset but before you say that the way he played with Nurk is the best way to maximize Nurk, let's see it replicated a bit more.

I like Nurk, he seems well intended. He works hard on defense, with great results as long as you make him feel really special (which let's face it due to his limitations you can't always do) and he is a very good high and low post facilitator when he's not being too flashy, along with being an effective scorer inside when he decides to forego the bullshit flip up shots. If he did away with the pouting, could stay healthy, kept his passing simple and finished strong in the paint then he'd be worth a four year contract that starts at 18M and escalating from there. The problem is he's just never done that consistently. I mean the Bosnian Beast works comes out about nine more times a year than Punxsutawney Phil. So the most he should get is 15M next season and since we will sign him for three or four seasons with raises in the salary every season, only the first two seasons should be guaranteed.
Or just trade the dude for someone who doesn't play soft. Where this guy got "Beast" as a nickname i will never be able to figure out. Frilly soft finger rolls, looping soft passes with absolutely no zip> The guy might be able to get 6 inches on his vert. Hurt every year that he doesn't get paid to sit.
I ask why? Why would they want to pay this dude 18 million US Dollars to suit up and sulk or continue complaining to the refs every time he gets touched?
 
hmm, whats happening with nurk, they cant agree on a new contract yet or hes testing the free agency
 
Bobby is right on. That is his value. Anything more is rough.
Obviously this because he didn't outperform his last contract. When he played he was right there a traditional big making 13M should give you a double double and play solid defense... what else you might want him to do is stay healthy.
 
For $12-14 million I would be happy having him. Still they need a backup. He will get hurt. We know this.
 
Expected this to be announced right away.

I wonder if we have an offer out for the full MLE. But we told Nurk if that doesn't get accepted we will bumb his salary up a couple million.

Or did Nurk hear of Ant's 4/100 and said something such as "hey I need to be the 2nd highest paid player on the team?"
 
Expected this to be announced right away.

I wonder if we have an offer out for the full MLE. But we told Nurk if that doesn't get accepted we will bumb his salary up a couple million.

Or did Nurk hear of Ant's 4/100 and said something such as "hey I need to be the 2nd highest paid player on the team?"

think about it. Nurk has been in Portland a lot longer than Ant. And he's accomplished a lot more. So then, if the 12-14M number is right, Nurk could be looking at making 40-50M less than Simons over the next 4 years

does anybody who has paid attention to Nurkic's moods over the years believe that wouldn't rankle the shit out of him?
 
Maybe we are exploring a Nurk & Hart for Ayton swap?

it's baffling, I simply can't grok the fascination for Ayton in this forum. He's better than Nurkic for sure, but he ain't better at twice the money and the sacrifice of Hart
 
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