Keeping our pick? This might be a Lottery year

[Predator]

Also, I’ll eat my crow.
I’m firmly on Jabari #1 now.
Paolo #2.

 

[blazerkor]

How about based on:
Points (Bol Bol)
Rebounds (Bol Bol)
Essentially the same bpg (slight advantage Chet), same steals (slight advantage Bol Bol)
Shot better from 3 and ft
Essentially same on turnovers (slight advantage Bol Bol)
Worse on assists (2 for Chet, 1 for Bol Bol).
Oh and Bol Bol fouls less.

I mean, pretty much by every measure of the word he was, as I admitted before, a superior player in his limited experience.

That’s not to say Chet would end up like Bol Bol, I asked a question “what’s the difference between Bol Bol & Chet? Everything people are saying that makes Chet a unicorn was said about Bol Bol, plus Bol Bol was better in college.”

If the answer is “BBIQ”, ok, fair - curious why it hasn’t translated into some dominant college basketball player. Because he isn’t a focal points and picks his spots? Well, I’d argue if he was good enough, they’d make him a focal point.

That also doesn’t explain his disappearing acts in half of the games they’ve played against quality competition.

But like I said, it was a question.

When throwing out stats in this argument you're comparing apples to oranges. Very obviously with 15 shots per game during Bol Bol's very limited sample size of a college career, he was the focal point of the Oregon offense. Chet meanwhile is an important part of what Gonzaga does but he's not close to being the focal point with two of his teammates getting more attempts per game than he does. The same is true for rebounding where Gonzaga rebounds as a team and Bol Bol was the guy who went up to get the boards for the Ducks. None of the numbers matter because they are playing in two completely different situations.

 

[JDC]

watched the highlights of the game. i don't see george at all. PG was always super smooth and had a terrific handle while being able to finish at the rim. Smith looks a bit clunky whenever he's doing anything other than spot-up shooting. I think Jaren Jackson jr is a decent comp.

For now anyway. Still a terrific prospect at that size, though.

JJJ is who he reminded me of movement wise as well the first time I saw him. Have that same awkward fluidity to them.

His shot motion and how he likes to set up his pull ups reminds me of Andrew Wiggins a little bit as well. His offense feels very predetermined like Wiggs, but when you're an elite shooter at 6'10" you are still going to find a lot of success.

Defensively he looks like a guy that'll be a neutral maybe slight positive value guy. Not a great rim protector for his size. Not very explosive or long and doesn't seem flexible in his upper body which hurts his ability to get a good contest on shots that aren't directly in his area. He's active on the ball, but he also struggles to navigate screens. But any guy his size has trouble with that so it's not a huge deal to me.

I like him, but right now he's a fairly clear third for me after Paulo and Chet who I have in their own tier right now.

 

[illmatic99]

JJJ is who he reminded me of movement wise as well the first time I saw him. Have that same awkward fluidity to them.

His shot motion and how he likes to set up his pull ups reminds me of Andrew Wiggins a little bit as well. His offense feels very predetermined like Wiggs, but when you're an elite shooter at 6'10" you are still going to find a lot of success.

Defensively he looks like a guy that'll be a neutral maybe slight positive value guy. Not a great rim protector for his size. Not very explosive or long and doesn't seem flexible in his upper body which hurts his ability to get a good contest on shots that aren't directly in his area. He's active on the ball, but he also struggles to navigate screens. But any guy his size has trouble with that so it's not a huge deal to me.

I like him, but right now he's a fairly clear third for me after Paulo and Chet who I have in their own tier right now.

paolo #1 for me. jabari 2.

im deathly afraid of chet, man.

 

[JDC]

paolo #1 for me. jabari 2.

im deathly afraid of chet, man.

Hard not to be afraid of the frame and just so so athleticism, but the fact that he has had next to no injury history and seems to play well with contact eases those concerns for me.

I am definitely interested to see how much weight he can add to his small frame and how that'll affect his positive athletic traits (hip fluidity, quick second jump, upper body flexibility) but if he can add enough strength over time and maintain those qualities, that will allow him to use his handle and passing ability in the half court off closeouts.

Team fit is definitely more important with him as well. You're going to have to get a little bit more creative with him offensively early on and have a big that complements him, allowing him to play a lot of 4.

 

[Fez Hammersticks]

Nbadraft.net’s recent extended mock:

“This is the time of year that many teams forget about Gonzaga and their players, but Chet Holmgren is someone you can’t forget about. The 7’0 freshman is lean, but displays athletic ability and skill we’ve really never seen from someone of his size. Holmgren is comfortable taking the ball up the court, taking on defenders off the dribble and fading off screens to knock down triples. While there will be fear related to his body strength and potential for injury, his upside alone is enough to draft him first overall, but his talent and comfort level with the college game is proving how special he is as a player.”

His physical will be huge - I’m more concerned about a possible Marfan syndrome diagnosis than I am his weight.

If he has no red flags on his physical you take Chet #1 imo.

 

[illmatic99]

Hard not to be afraid of the frame and just so so athleticism, but the fact that he has had next to no injury history and seems to play well with contact eases those concerns for me.

I am definitely interested to see how much weight he can add to his small frame and how that'll affect his positive athletic traits (hip fluidity, quick second jump, upper body flexibility) but if he can add enough strength over time and maintain those qualities, that will allow him to use his handle and passing ability in the half court off closeouts.

Team fit is definitely more important with him as well. You're going to have to get a little bit more creative with him offensively early on and have a big that complements him, allowing him to play a lot of 4.

i don't like the idea of having to hide a top 3 pick. i'd want someone to build around. and given our injury history with big men, red flags all around for me.

paolo is as much of a unicorn to me without all the fear. can score at every level, decent defensive instincts, great athlete, and he's got a motor. no brainer right now as #1.

 

[Natebishop3]

Nbadraft.net’s recent extended mock:

“This is the time of year that many teams forget about Gonzaga and their players, but Chet Holmgren is someone you can’t forget about. The 7’0 freshman is lean, but displays athletic ability and skill we’ve really never seen from someone of his size. Holmgren is comfortable taking the ball up the court, taking on defenders off the dribble and fading off screens to knock down triples. While there will be fear related to his body strength and potential for injury, his upside alone is enough to draft him first overall, but his talent and comfort level with the college game is proving how special he is as a player.”

His physical will be huge - I’m more concerned about a possible Marfan syndrome diagnosis than I am his weight.

If he has no red flags on his physical you take Chet #1 imo.

No fucking thanks.





They're practically twins. Fuck outta here. Paging @Mediocre Man

 

[illmatic99]

195 for chet seems generous

 

[illmatic99]

6'10, 250. and doing this.

come on

 

[Natebishop3]

If we draft another big man, his knees will explode in the first game. No thanks. Not interested.

 

[Fez Hammersticks]

I’m equally high on Jabari as well.

Like I said - there’s only three potential franchise players in this draft.

Chet is the biggest boom/bust of the three.

Jabari is the safest pick

 

[TBpup]

6'10, 250. and doing this.

come on

24 points on 23 shots... not very impressive. Didn't get to the FT line and didn't show the explosiveness I'd like to see in this game.

Jabari probably my #1 for now.

 

[wizenheimer]

do you guys watch a lot of college basketball or just highlights and scouting reports?

I don't watch much......I've only seen Holmgren for a half, and he only played about half of that half. I haven't seen any of these other guys. I mainly will just see players the Ducks play in the few games I catch until march madness

 

[illmatic99]

do you guys watch a lot of college basketball or just highlights and scouting reports?

I don't watch much......I've only seen Holmgren for a half, and he only played about half of that half. I haven't seen any of these other guys. I mainly will just see players the Ducks play in the few games I catch until march madness

i can't watch whole games. don't enjoy college ball for multitude of reasons. I follow this guy who posts video of not just the highlights but nearly every play the players are involved in.

https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCpBh-61hTOGgymrrtILrGog

 

[BankTeller]

If you’re drafting someone with a top pick, you should be REALLY concerned with their ability to play offense, imo. I stated that earlier. A top 3 pick who can’t score, isn’t going to help us much, in my opinion.

I also mentioned it briefly before as to why I’d be hesitant to draft him that high.

it’s kinda like Marcus Smart or Davion Mitchell. Elite defenders who… aren’t exactly gonna light the world on fire offensively and it’s a problem.

Let me clarify, it’s not like he doesn’t have an offensive game at all. He’s not the focal point on offense in college and he wouldn’t be the focal point on offense on the Blazers. We WOULD need him to be good on defense ASAP though.

And it’s not like the majority of a player’s development happens in 3 years. I’d rather have him focus on gaining weight and shooting 3’s in his first 3 years as opposed to adding a focus on his handles and other things on top of gains and 3’s because that immediately helps us.

If you have Dame, Simons, and Simmons, you don’t need him to develop that part of his game quickly. Focus on the skills that would help us right away, and extend his contract based on the defensive impact he is already making. Then as Dame gets older or if Simmons demands a trade or doesn’t show interest in re-signing you can have him focus on his offensive game.

I think Smart is abit of a poor comparison situationally. We aren’t like what the Celtics were. They had IT as the only bonabide scorer on their team, and you can include Jeff Green I guess. They were 27th in off rating and 18th in def rating that year, so they basically had to bank on him to be good offensively right away. Davion Mitchell remains to be seen, he’s on a terrible team. And I for one would love Davion on the Blazers if the Kings were giving up on him already.

But I just have low standards; I personally would happy with 10pts/8rbs playing elite defense and shooting 35-38% from 3 without all the handles and stuff by the end of year 3. But this is assuming he’s even available on draft day for us, Idk if we’ll even be able get high enough to draft him.

 

[BankTeller]

If we draft another big man, his knees will explode in the first game. No thanks. Not interested.

You’re saying we should trade the pick if it’s in the top 3 then? No wings in the draft are worth a top 3 pick, and we don’t need to draft another guard.

 

[Predator]

When throwing out stats in this argument you're comparing apples to oranges. Very obviously with 15 shots per game during Bol Bol's very limited sample size of a college career, he was the focal point of the Oregon offense. Chet meanwhile is an important part of what Gonzaga does but he's not close to being the focal point with two of his teammates getting more attempts per game than he does. The same is true for rebounding where Gonzaga rebounds as a team and Bol Bol was the guy who went up to get the boards for the Ducks. None of the numbers matter because they are playing in two completely different situations.

On points per game, yeah.
But like I said Bol Bol is a better 3pt shooter and ft shooter. Percentage wise. Nothing to do with volume.
And, uh, I’m too lazy to look into the stats but that’s not true about Dana Altman teams and rebounding. I can specifically think of Louis King, Kenny Whooten and Payton Pritchard was decent at rebounding for a guard. Ehab and Abu were also rebounding pretty well before Bol Bols injury.
Like I said, doesn’t mean Chet won’t be the better player overall, but if I have a top 3 pick… Chet is a tough selection for me as of now.

 

[PCmor7]

I think Jabari's at the top of this draft and there's no one else even close. I'm trying to see what I'm missing when anyone else gets mentioned along with him.

 

[Predator]

do you guys watch a lot of college basketball or just highlights and scouting reports?

I don't watch much......I've only seen Holmgren for a half, and he only played about half of that half. I haven't seen any of these other guys. I mainly will just see players the Ducks play in the few games I catch until march madness

I watch the ducks which is why I asked what is the difference between Bol Bol and Chet. I was honestly curious. It was exactly what we heard about Bol Bol.

The fact that Chet actually plays defense is why I said it wasn’t an even comp, but my issues are on the offensive end. Why the fuck does Chet no show offensively when he plays decent teams?

I’m not drafting someone in the top 3 that isn’t going to give us much offensively even if they’re the next Dennis Rodman / Bill Russell combo rebounding / defense.

 

[Hoopguru]

Paolo have have 1, Jabari then Chet

 

[Predator]

Let me clarify, it’s not like he doesn’t have an offensive game at all. He’s not the focal point on offense in college and he wouldn’t be the focal point on offense on the Blazers. We WOULD need him to be good on defense ASAP though.

And it’s not like the majority of a player’s development happens in 3 years. I’d rather have him focus on gaining weight and shooting 3’s in his first 3 years as opposed to adding a focus on his handles and other things on top of gains and 3’s because that immediately helps us.

If you have Dame, Simons, and Simmons, you don’t need him to develop that part of his game quickly. Focus on the skills that would help us right away, and extend his contract based on the defensive impact he is already making. Then as Dame gets older or if Simmons demands a trade or doesn’t show interest in re-signing you can have him focus on his offensive game.

I think Smart is abit of a poor comparison situationally. We aren’t like what the Celtics were. They had IT as the only bonabide scorer on their team, and you can include Jeff Green I guess. They were 27th in off rating and 18th in def rating that year, so they basically had to bank on him to be good offensively right away. Davion Mitchell remains to be seen, he’s on a terrible team. And I for one would love Davion on the Blazers if the Kings were giving up on him already.

But I just have low standards; I personally would happy with 10pts/8rbs playing elite defense and shooting 35-38% from 3 without all the handles and stuff by the end of year 3. But this is assuming he’s even available on draft day for us, Idk if we’ll even be able get high enough to draft him.

Ah, yeah, I think we just have a different approach to drafting. I think you need a top pick to be present offensively and defensively. I’m not expecting him to be Melo but having multiple single digit scoring games is a red flag for me. It’s not like he’s not getting touches or attempts at all.

10/8 and elite defense would be ok… not #1 pick material in my opinion.
I should also clarify, this was a conversation based on who I would take #1. If we are #3 and Chet is there, sure, take him.

Im just saying I don’t see how we could take him over Paolo (originally) but now I’m firmly on the Jabari train.

 

[Predator]

I think Jabari's at the top of this draft and there's no one else even close. I'm trying to see what I'm missing when anyone else gets mentioned along with him.

Yeah I ate my crow on that one. Jabari is a runaway #1 for me right now.

 

[Predator]

You’re saying we should trade the pick if it’s in the top 3 then? No wings in the draft are worth a top 3 pick, and we don’t need to draft another guard.

That would be interesting if Chet was there at #3. There are definitely teams that are going to be really, really high on him. Wonder if they’d trade something substantial to make it worth it?

chet for Scottie Barnes! Lol

 

[blazerkor]

I have Chet with the highest ceiling and actually think given the right personnel around him that he would have the biggest impact on day one.

I have Paolo with the highest floor but I think both him and Jabari are close in that category. I think both of them will definitely have a positive impact on a team on day one regardless of the other players. So they are safer picks.

I think the only way I would take Chet first is if he showed a lot of growth between now and the end of the season or blew me away in a workout. There is another way I'd take him first... if I didn't already have a shot blocking stretch big next to Ben Simmons, I would take Chet first if I had Ben Simmons and the first pick. That's barring anything coming up regarding Chet's health between now and the draft.

 

[TBpup]

A solid night for the 'pick'. Blazers got boat raced by the Nugz. The Pels crushed the Clippers, and OKC throttled the Nets.

Blazers only 2 wins in front of the #4 Thunder.

 

[blazerkor]

A solid night for the 'pick'. Blazers got boat raced by the Nugz. The Pels crushed the Clippers, and OKC throttled the Nets.

Blazers only 2 wins in front of the #4 Thunder.

Without trades that are meant to net us less wins this season, we will not have good odds at a top 4 pick. A top pick or even keeping our pick shouldn't be on our GMs mind. All Cronin should care about is rebuilding this team around Dame in a way that makes them a contender. If he can do that while tanking to get another impact piece in this draft then so be it but Cronin has to show that he can make this team better for next season before this season is over aka by the deadline or he will most likely be replaced before he can make moves during the draft and free agency. I love that he's very likely under that pressure.

 

[MickZagger]

Without trades that are meant to net us less wins this season, we will not have good odds at a top 4 pick. A top pick or even keeping our pick shouldn't be on our GMs mind. All Cronin should care about is rebuilding this team around Dame in a way that makes them a contender. If he can do that while tanking to get another impact piece in this draft then so be it but Cronin has to show that he can make this team better for next season before this season is over aka by the deadline or he will most likely be replaced before he can make moves during the draft and free agency. I love that he's very likely under that pressure.

Its an asset that will be very helpful in re-tooling. Whether we use it or trade it.

 

[blazerkor]

Its an asset that will be very helpful in re-tooling. Whether we use it or trade it.

If it's in the mid to late lottery is it really a better asset than having all of our future firsts freed up by the pick being conveyed to the Bulls? All of this may be a moot point because if the Bulls really want RoCo we should make getting back the full rights to the pick part of that deal.

 

[BankTeller]

The more I see of this guy, the more I love him. He has Morant-like intensity. I would feel pretty good about having the #4 pick in the draft.

I’m holding out hopes that Anfernee plays well enough by the end of the season that Morey would accept an Anfernee sign-and-trade + 2 picks for Simmons. If we are confident that he can sustain this play, we have to just give him and opportunity to maximize his value and trade significant pieces for cheap young guys and give Anfernee full reign for one season.

Ivey, Little, and Simmons are 3 guys I’d love to have around Dame defensively. Nance is a good defender as well.
Hoping that trading out CJ, Covington, Powell, and Nurkic gets us significantly under the cap. I think pursuing both Bamba and Smith should be a priority

Dame/Smith Jr
Ivey/____/____
Simmons/Little/____
Nance/Watford/Brown
Bamba/Smith/____

____ would just be whatever comes from the Norm/CJ/Nurk/Covington trades.

Would be a lot like CP3 when he joined the Suns, a young all star and a bunch of young guys. Ivey might not develop as a scorer as quick as Ja, but I see Ivey making the same impact with his playmaking and defense right away. I would love this guy to be the leader of my squad when Dame goes downhill.