Keeping our pick? This might be a Lottery year

[blazerkor]

good thing you’re not

As someone who really wants to see Dame spend his whole career here, I agree completely.

 

[TBpup]

This would be good for so manner reasons.

 

[Scalma]

I rate Chet, Ivey, and Jabari so closely that if we got the first pick I would probably take needs into consideration. And I think I would settle on Jabari.

 

[Pinwheel1]

The mock drafts are all over the place as usual. I saw one that had us taking Jeremy Sochan at #10.
Not sure where he will end up going but IMO this guy could end up being the best player in the draft if he keeps improving his 3 pt shot. (or a bench player if he never does)

He will be 19 in May and already is already 230 lbs with a 7' wing. His defense looks as good as any of the other forwards in the draft. (if not better) I would not be opposed to trading for Grant (with N.O pick) and drafting Sochan with ours for the future. Of course, that could all change if he does poorly in the workouts, but I wonder if he is the guy in this draft that slips and ends up being the best 2-way player. Although I am sure we could make an argument for about 10 other players. Bottom line is there should be a decent player available when we draft.

 

[DDolla]

What are the chances that Pels pick lands between 5-10?

 

[RR7]

What are the chances that Pels pick lands between 5-10?

I'd say very unlikely. Basically zero chance it's 5-8. 9 and 10 is possible

 

[TBpup]

I'd say very unlikely. Basically zero chance it's 5-8. 9 and 10 is possible

Most likely #10 or #11.

 

[illmatic99]

What are the chances that Pels pick lands between 5-10?

I'd say very unlikely. Basically zero chance it's 5-8. 9 and 10 is possible

it actually is none. The actual lottery is only for the top 4 picks, and the rest of the picks are made in order of worse record. So if NO doesn't land in the top 4, they will be either at the spot they started with, or worse (if teams behind them jump up). So if NO finishes with the 11th worst record as they are now, the picks can only be 1-4 or 11, 12, 13, 14.

Sidebar, we need Washington to win some more games. They've tied NO in record. And NY is only a game away.

 

[Shaboid]

Most likely #10 or #11.

Becoming more and more likely that we don't get it at all.

 

[Natebishop3]

Becoming more and more likely that we don't get it at all.

They barely beat us last night. You think they're going to be good enough to actually win both games to get into the playoffs?

 

[illmatic99]

They barely beat us last night. You think they're going to be good enough to actually win both games to get into the playoffs?

LA and SA aren't exactly setting the world on fire. I think the Pels have a great shot of winning at least one PIT game, but not as confident of them beating the Clips or Minny in their second game, unless Zion magically returns.

 

[Shaboid]

They barely beat us last night. You think they're going to be good enough to actually win both games to get into the playoffs?

I think the Lakers are playing shitty enough. Anything can happen in a single elimination game. Maybe not likely or favored to, but they are definitely good enough to win a couple games in a row.

 

[illmatic99]

Keegan's advanced stats are off the charts. He leads the NCAA in:

- PER
- Win Shares
- Offensive win shares
- Win shares per 40.
- BPM (Chet is 2nd but his contribution is on defense)
- OBPM (by a WIDE margin)

- 3rd in ORTG
- 9th in Points produced per game

No one else is even close to him in terms of offensive efficiency AND absolute production. In terms of efficiency, the only others to show up on these leaderboards are Chet and Eason (and both of them are contributing on the defensive side).

Hard to overlook this kinda insane offensive impact from Murray, but I can't help but be guarded after seeing that the leader in these same categories last year was also an Iowa player with high usage (Luka Garza). I unfortunately haven't paid much attention to Iowa before this month.

For some of you who might have been following, does the efficiency match eye test?

 

[TBpup]

Keegan's advanced stats are off the charts. He leads the NCAA in:

- PER
- Win Shares
- Offensive win shares
- Win shares per 40.
- BPM (Chet is 2nd but his contribution is on defense)
- OBPM (by a WIDE margin)

- 3rd in ORTG
- 9th in Points produced per game

No one else is even close to him in terms of offensive efficiency AND absolute production. In terms of efficiency, the only others to show up on these leaderboards are Chet and Eason (and both of them are contributing on the defensive side).

Hard to overlook this kinda insane offensive impact from Murray, but I can't help but be guarded after seeing that the leader in these same categories last year was also an Iowa player with high usage (Luka Garza). I unfortunately haven't paid much attention to Iowa before this month.

For some of you who might have been following, does the efficiency match eye test?

Garza was never going to translate to the NBA. Murray should translate much more readily, but it's interesting that they both were so efficient for the same school.
Those are some insane offensive numbers.

 

[illmatic99]

Those are some insane offensive numbers.

Compares very favorably to Dame's offensive impact his senior year. I need to have a re-think on Murray. Will watch more film.

 

[Hoopguru]

Keegan's advanced stats are off the charts. He leads the NCAA in:

- PER
- Win Shares
- Offensive win shares
- Win shares per 40.
- BPM (Chet is 2nd but his contribution is on defense)
- OBPM (by a WIDE margin)

- 3rd in ORTG
- 9th in Points produced per game

No one else is even close to him in terms of offensive efficiency AND absolute production. In terms of efficiency, the only others to show up on these leaderboards are Chet and Eason (and both of them are contributing on the defensive side).

Hard to overlook this kinda insane offensive impact from Murray, but I can't help but be guarded after seeing that the leader in these same categories last year was also an Iowa player with high usage (Luka Garza). I unfortunately haven't paid much attention to Iowa before this month.

For some of you who might have been following, does the efficiency match eye test?

It does for me. Dame was similar then went to the combine and stood out.
Murray has been my guy all along thinking we'd be picking 6-8. He may go a bit lower?
He's a good defender and has an inside out game with decent handle. Like his composer, age & body for making an impact in the league.

 

[Natebishop3]

Garza was never going to translate to the NBA. Murray should translate much more readily, but it's interesting that they both were so efficient for the same school.
Those are some insane offensive numbers.

What is D69 saying? Whoever he picks we should get a billboard outside the Rose Garden.

 

[TBpup]

It does for me. Dame was similar then went to the combine and stood out.
Murray has been my guy all along thinking we'd be picking 6-8. He may go a bit lower?
He's a good defender and has an inside out game with decent handle. Like his composer, age & body for making an impact in the league.

He has been moving up and is up to #5 in some Mocks. If he goes at #5, we are looking at Shapre/Griffin/Mahurin/Duren at #6.

 

[Rastapopoulos]

Shaedon Sharpe

I bet any money you like that if (a) we don't move up in the lottery, and (b) he's still there at our (first) pick, we take Sharpe. He SCREAMS Blazers pick. It's an Anfernee situation on steroids.

 

[illmatic99]

I know it's gonna happen, but I just can't wrap my head around the Sharpe hype. All us fans have to go by are maybe 2 hrs of practice/EYBL video of the guy shooting difficult jumpshots against guys shorter than him.

If Sharpe does end up going ahead of guys with far more accomplished resumes (like Davis/Mathurin/etc), then that signifies at least one of three things:

1. This draft is so awful that the unknown entity is preferable.
2. Sharpe is absolutely killing it in practices and scouts are seeing him there.
3. Front office guys are no better than mock draft experts.

 

[Hoopguru]

I bet any money you like that if (a) we don't move up in the lottery, and (b) he's still there at our (first) pick, we take Sharpe. He SCREAMS Blazers pick. It's an Anfernee situation on steroids.

Another guard....nah unless we draft for someone else I see us going front court and over 6'6".

 

[illmatic99]

Another guard....nah unless we draft for someone else I see us going front court and over 6'6".

if he's really 6'6 and has a 7' wingspan as has been mentioned by some sources, that's great size for a wing for us. I just don't know if he can actually hoop or it's just hype.

 

[Hoopguru]

if he's really 6'6 and has a 7' wingspan as has been mentioned by some sources, that's great size for a wing for us. I just don't know if he can actually hoop or it's just hype.

I know DJones jr had a 7' span.
Yeah, didnt realize he had that ws.

 

[Predator]

I know it's gonna happen, but I just can't wrap my head around the Sharpe hype. All us fans have to go by are maybe 2 hrs of practice/EYBL video of the guy shooting difficult jumpshots against guys shorter than him.

If Sharpe does end up going ahead of guys with far more accomplished resumes (like Davis/Mathurin/etc), then that signifies at least one of three things:

1. This draft is so awful that the unknown entity is preferable.
2. Sharpe is absolutely killing it in practices and scouts are seeing him there.
3. Front office guys are no better than mock draft experts.

LeBron James got drafted over guys who were “more accomplished” based on him dominating players much worse than him.

It’s essentially the same as drafting a high school guy.

So what it tells me is…

4) Potential > Everything else


*Most* people I’ve read, heard, seen have stated this:

There are 2 potential superstars in this draft. Banchero and Shaedon Sharpe.

They could be wrong but the consistency of the statement means it’s a prevalent belief.

 

[illmatic99]

LeBron James got drafted over guys who were “more accomplished” based on him dominating players much worse than him.

It’s essentially the same as drafting a high school guy.

So what it tells me is…

4) Potential > Everything else


*Most* people I’ve read, heard, seen have stated this:

There are 2 potential superstars in this draft. Banchero and Shaedon Sharpe.

They could be wrong but the consistency of the statement means it’s a prevalent belief.

did you just equate sharpe to lebron?

i cant even...

 

[Predator]

Another guard....nah unless we draft for someone else I see us going front court and over 6'6".

And this is why we missed out on Michael Jordan.

IF Blazer management thinks he is clearly a tier A player, you have to take him over a tier B player.

I happen to think Chet, Paolo and Shaedon are Tier A players, so if it comes down to those 3 I would take them in that order.

If it came down to Shaedon or Jabari, I’d take Shaedon because I think Jabari is a Tier B player. (yes I know I’m about to get ripped apart).

 

[Predator]

did you just equate sharpe to lebron?

i cant even...

It was an analogy because there were clearly very, very accomplished college players in that draft (more accomplished than what we have in this draft) and they still went with the high school guy.

And - if you listen or care what the scouts have to say - Sharpe is one of the players they view to most likely be a superstar.

Think of Kobe or Kevin Garnett instead if you want. There are clear examples of teams taking “unknowns” over “proven talent” due to potential.

 

[illmatic99]

It was an analogy because there were clearly very, very accomplished college players in that draft (more accomplished than what we have in this draft) and they still went with the high school guy.

And - if you listen or care what the scouts have to say - Sharpe is one of the players they view to most likely be a superstar.

Think of Kobe or Kevin Garnett instead if you want. There are clear examples of teams taking “unknowns” over “proven talent” due to potential.

Care to share some of these scouting reports you're seeing?

 

[Hoopguru]

And this is why we missed out on Michael Jordan.

IF Blazer management thinks he is clearly a tier A player, you have to take him over a tier B player.

I happen to think Chet, Paolo and Shaedon are Tier A players, so if it comes down to those 3 I would take them in that order.

If it came down to Shaedon or Jabari, I’d take Shaedon because I think Jabari is a Tier B player. (yes I know I’m about to get ripped apart).

If Blazer management have him as a tier A player and he's on their board, they may take him?

 

[Predator]

Care to share some of these scouting reports you're seeing?

I don’t have them saved as a hot key nor do I remember the exact articles.

I believe one was the athletic.
Another was “The Ringer”.
I think they also has YouTube show where a front office exec said he had Sharpe in the top 2(!)
Another I think was an NBA segment on ESPN with Schmitz.
That’s all I have off the top of my head.