Keys to the series

[Da_O]

Da_O's patented 5 keys to winning the series is here. Been about a 5 year absence, but it feels good to be back.

*Thank you, thank you.

Now here goes.

1. Aldridge needs to be aggressive - He is the biggest mismatch for the Rockets to contain. Scola's giving up at least a couple inches on him. LaMarcus needs to look to be aggressive and get their bigs into foul trouble. Hopefully he can find consistency in his jumper, but not rely on it too heavily. In the 3 games this season Aldridge is averaging 23.3 points, 8.6 rebounds on 48% shooting. This is a match-up we must look to exploit.

2. Containing Yao - We need to look to front Yao early and often. Keep him from getting low-post position. Joel says he's up for this task. It's best we don't double team him too often when he does get the ball as he is great at passing out of double teams and finding the open shooter.

We also have to be worried about him hitting that 15 foot jumper from the elbow. He's just as consistent as Duncan from out there. I'm sure they're going to use Brook's penetration ability and draw the big man guarding Yao down and then pass it out to him.

3. Rudy is the x-factor - When Rudy is hot, we usually win. He just brings the whole energy of the team up. He also will tire both Battier and Artest out if thye guard him. Which in turn makes it easier for Roy on the offensive end. I've looked and when Rudy has at least three 3-pointers made we are 15-5.

4. Oden vs the refs - Hopefully, the refs swallow their whistles a little and give Oden a little more leeway, since they give Oden a lot of ticky-tacky fouls. Earlier Nikolokus posted an article on defensive efficiency, some of this can be attributed to Oden and the physical play he brings. Teams know that if they try to go in, they're going to be hammered by a 280 pound goliath. He's such an intimidating low post presence defensively that if he can keep out of foul trouble, it's no secret he's going to have a huge impact on this series.

5. Roy needs to be the closer - And finally Roy just needs to do what he's done all year, be the closer during crunch time. I didn't like what we saw during the Denver game but I attribute that more to Roy's unselfishness and getting his teammates good looks. I promise that if Houston tries to go with Denver's strategy of double and triple teaming Roy will burn them.

There is probably more I could have added, but feel free to bring them up.

 

[Da_O]

Some other things after looking at some other stats.

Houston is 10th in the league in 3 point shooting percentage and take as just as many as us, so it's important we get out on those shooters.
(Portland is 4th in 3pt percentage and are 12th in attempts)

Houston is 4th in "in the paint efficiency." So once again we need to keep Yao(and Scola) out of the painted area.

Bench play is important. We completely blow them away in most statistical categories.
(Houston's bench 17th in ppg, 19th in efficiency, and 13th in defensive efficiency compared to Portland's bench 2nd in PPG, 3rd in efficiency, and 4th in defensive efficiency.)

 

[ehizzy3]

Da_O's patented 5 keys to winning the series is here. Been about a 5 year absence, but it feels good to be back.

*Thank you, thank you.

Now here goes.

1. Aldridge needs to be aggressive - He is the biggest mismatch for the Rockets to contain. Scola's giving up at least a couple inches on him. LaMarcus needs to look to be aggressive and get their bigs into foul trouble. Hopefully he can find consistency in his jumper, but not rely on it too heavily. In the 3 games this season Aldridge is averaging 23.3 points, 8.6 rebounds on 48% shooting. This is a match-up we must look to exploit.

2. Containing Yao - We need to look to front Yao as soon as he gets the ball. Keep him from getting low-post position. Joel says he's up for this task. It's best we don't double team him too often as he is great at passing out of double teams and finding the open shooter.

We also have to be worried about him hitting that 15 foot jumper from the elbow. He's just as consistent as Duncan from out there. I'm sure they're going to use Brook's penetration ability and draw the big man guarding Yao down and then pass it out to him.

3. Rudy is the x-factor - When Rudy is hot, we usually win. He just brings the whole energy of the team up. He also will tire both Battier and Artest out if thye guard him. Which in turn makes it easier for Roy on the offensive end. I've looked and when Rudy has at least three 3-pointers made we are 15-5.

4. Oden vs the refs - Hopefully, the refs swallow their whistles a little and give Oden a little more leeway, since they give Oden a lot of ticky -acky fouls. Earlier I posted an article on defensive efficiency, some of this can be attributed to Oden and the physical play he brings. Teams know that if they try to go in, they're going to be hammered by a 280 pound goliath. He's such an intimidating low post presence defensively that if he can keep out of foul trouble, it's no secret he's going to have a huge impact on this series.

5. Roy needs to be the closer - And finally Roy just needs to do what he's done all year, be the closer during crunch time. I didn't like what we saw during the Denver game but I attribute that more to Roy's unselfishness and getting his teammates good looks. I promise that if Houston tries to go with Denver's strategy of double and triple teaming Roy will burn them.

There is probably more I could have added, but feel free to bring them up.

i agree with most of these but, i think fronting yao when he already has the ball wont be very effective

 

[Da_O]

i agree with most of these but, i think fronting yao when he already has the ball wont be very effective

Oh yeah

fixed, thank you, sometimes I get caught up when I'm writing.

 

[ehizzy3]

Oh yeah

fixed, thank you, sometimes I get caught up when I'm writing.

lol it happens to all of us. and your welcome. very good thread

 

[rocketeer]

Bench play is important. We completely blow them away in most statistical categories.
(Houston's bench 17th in ppg, 19th in efficiency, and 13th in defensive efficiency compared to Portland's bench 2nd in PPG, 3rd in efficiency, and 4th in defensive efficiency.)

the bench numbers are deceiving though as batum starts but only plays 18 minutes per game. the blazers have two bench players who play more minutes than two of the starters, so obviously any bench numbers should be in the blazers favor.

 

[Da_O]

the bench numbers are deceiving though as batum starts but only plays 18 minutes per game. the blazers have two bench players who play more minutes than two of the starters, so obviously any bench numbers should be in the blazers favor.

I misinterpreted the efficiency and defensive efficiency stats.

I used this site.
http://www.hoopsstats.com/basketball/fantasy/nba/teamstats/09/7/fg3pct/1-1

I was reading eff as efficiency and Deff as defensive efficiency.

eff=NBA efficiency recap and Deff=efficiency recap difference.

So to change it we are 3rd in eff and 4th in Deff while Houston is 19th in eff and 13th in Deff.

What you say is true, but by just watching either team anyone could see that our bench is clearly better. Our bench is 2nd in the league in minutes played while Houston is 21st with a difference of 3.3 minutes.

 

[ehizzy3]

does anybody think that batum might guard brooks to help stop penetration? i just thought about that, but it would leave a mismatch with blake guarding battier, and roy guarding artest...both are stronger than the blazers but shane does not really have a post up game, and i think roy could at least stop artest from going off..

 

[Da_O]

i think roy could at least stop roy from going off

I would hope he doesn't do that.

 

[ehizzy3]

lol it happens to all of us. and your welcome. very good thread

I would hope he doesn't do that.

lol!

but what you think about batum guarding brooks?

 

[Da_O]

lol!

but what you think about batum guarding brooks?

I think Blake can stay in front of him just fine. If Batum guards Brooks that means Blake is guarding Battier, and he can easily outrebound over Blake. We'd probably be better off just keeping Batum on Shane.

 

[ehizzy3]

I think Blake can stay in front of him just fine. If Batum guards Brooks that means Blake is guarding Battier, and he can easily outrebound over Blake. We'd probably be better off just keeping Batum on Shane.

well i was thinking batum was going to be on artest and roy on battier...i think thats better, guarding battier doesnt require a lot, just put a hand in his face, and block him out. roy can spend more energy on offense

 

[KingSpeed]

Well done, Da O.

 

[Public Defender]

The Blazers need to just keep playing the way they've been playing. The Rockets' natural tendency is to take away Brandon Roy - and they have that capability with two excellent defensive forwards - Battier and Artest. But what needs to be the Blazers' big advantage is having multiple players able to hit big shots. As you mentioned, Da O, Fernandez will be an important piece of the equation - but so will Batum's offense, Outlaw, even Channing Frye and Rodriguez. If those guys can step up, the Rockets will be simply outgunned.

 

[drexlersdad]

keep aaron brooks out of the lane.

force yao out to 5-10 foot hooks, no dunks.

LMA needs to score 20+ every game.

make artest take 3's.

 

[MARIS61]

Our starters are among the most consistent, and best, in the league.

How far we go in the playoffs depends on how willing Nate is to give the bench big minutes, and whether they come through or not.

Both squads need to push the tempo to full throttle at both ends every game, regardless of opponent.

We really suck when we play SnailBall, which Nate seemingly has stopped going to.

 

[maxiep]

IMO, the biggest key to the series can be summed up in one word: Pace.

If we manage to get the game a bit more uptempo, we stand a much better chance of winning the series than if we play a half-court grind-it-out game.

 

[Minstrel]

IMO, the biggest key to the series can be summed up in one word: Pace.

If we manage to get the game a bit more uptempo, we stand a much better chance of winning the series than if we play a half-court grind-it-out game.

I agree in a limited sense. I don't think the team is used to playing at a consistently up-tempo pace, nor is that how they play best. I think their ideal pace is methodical offense and defense most of the time and run when there's a clearly good opportunity to do so.

The nice thing is that they can do both. Playing the slow-down pace that Houston favours isn't a death sentence for them like it might be for other teams. But when they can push the pace effectively, it will be bad for Houston.

 

[Da_O]

I honestly don't think pace is going to matter too much.

A big factor could be how well we get the offensive boards. Houston is a very good rebounding team. 4th in RR, and 4th in DRR.

 

[rocketeer]

the blazers play at a slower pace than the rockets, so i don't think the blazers playing uptempo would be something that is going to be to their advantage. both teams have players who can excel playing uptempo for stretches of the game but both teams are better off slowing the game down a bit and actually running their offense.

pace really should not be much of a factor at all unless the blazers plan on going small(aldridge at center, outlaw at pf) to try to take yao out of the game. at that point, which team dictates the pace of the game would be important(as they would have a large advantage), but i doubt that really comes into play as a major factor.

 

[Da_O]

the blazers play at a slower pace than the rockets, so i don't think the blazers playing uptempo would be something that is going to be to their advantage. both teams have players who can excel playing uptempo for stretches of the game but both teams are better off slowing the game down a bit and actually running their offense.

pace really should not be much of a factor at all unless the blazers plan on going small(aldridge at center, outlaw at pf) to try to take yao out of the game. at that point, which team dictates the pace of the game would be important(as they would have a large advantage), but i doubt that really comes into play as a major factor.

Agreed, both play slow, and play well slow.

The Trail Blazers are a lot slower though than even Houston, but neither is equipped with the personnel to score baskets efficiently on the fastbreak.

Maybe fastbreak 3's (from Rudy, or a heat-checking Artest), but that's about it.

Pace matters more when a team cannot play at a certain style, in a series.

For example, pace matters more in an Orlando-Philadelphia matchup.

Orlando prefers to play fast, but they can isolate with Turkoglu, or with Howard, and beat Philly too.

Philly cannot play slow.

 

[MARIS61]

the blazers play at a slower pace than the rockets...

So you've missed the last 20 games or so?

 

[MARIS61]

I honestly don't think pace is going to matter too much.

A big factor could be how well we get the offensive boards. Houston is a very good rebounding team. 4th in RR, and 4th in DRR.

Offensive rebounds?

There won't be any since we're not going to miss any shots!

 

[Da_O]

Offensive rebounds?

There won't be any since we're not going to miss any shots!

Haha true dat.

 

[Natebishop3]

As long as the fans are in the game.... things will be good to go.