Lillard Time vs NLT

[BlazerCaravan]

His shot selection has been shit, but he looks clearly fatigued. Not benching him for the game in GS was annoying, but understandable.

If we win these next two, we might have a legit shot at locking up the 5th seed by the weekend, given MEM loses as expected. That would make our game on Wed against DEN meaningless. If so, Dame and CJ could be rested for a whole week before the playoffs. Given how well Dame has done with rest, that is exactly what we need.

I'm fine with him playing out. After tonight we have five off days and two games plus another two days or so before Game 1. Then, very few games with even one day of rest; most will be two days apart.

 

[TBpup]

Curry is in a class by himself as a shooter. That said, when looking at percentages you do at least have to recognize that teams aren't able to give Curry the same defensive pressure that Dame gets simply because he's got Green and Thompson that are also demanding serious attention. The Warriors' bigs are also much more adept at setting screens to get Curry room to shoot than the Blazers bigs are. I'd love to see Dame's shooting percentage go up, too, and I suspect it will when his teammates up their games a notch or two or are replaced by other players that are better.

I agree Curry has more support which is why I wasn't only looking at this season. Even above in the Curry comparison (which I didn't bring up...lol) I went back 2 years to when Dame had LA, Lopez, Batum and Matthews.

 

[illmatic99]

I'm fine with him playing out. After tonight we have five off days and two games plus another two days or so before Game 1. Then, very few games with even one day of rest; most will be two days apart.

Kinda gets me thinking what Terry will do to prep for LA or OKC in that week. Always have felt Terry's inability to change his strategy to opponents was his biggest weakness, but that home and home series vs DAL where he made massive changes to guarding Dirk in the second game gave me some hope that Terry has improved in this respect.

Clips have completely muzzled Dame this season. Hope a weak of preparation for that defense can help Terry figure out answers.

As of now, Clips are our most likely opponent at 83% likelihood. OKC next at 14%. I'd start prepping now.

 

[e_blazer]

I agree Curry has more support which is why I wasn't only looking at this season. Even above in the Curry comparison (which I didn't bring up...lol) I went back 2 years to when Dame had LA, Lopez, Batum and Matthews.

I get that and agree that there's no doubt Curry is the more efficient scorer. But if Curry is the benchmark, every guard is going to come up short. I don't disagree with you that Dame needs to get to a point where his shooting percentage is better. I just think that focusing on that this year misses just what a fantastic job he's done pushing his young team into the playoffs when nobody gave them a chance.

 

[Orion Bailey]

His shot selection has been shit, but he looks clearly fatigued. Not benching him for the game in GS was annoying, but understandable.

If we win these next two, we might have a legit shot at locking up the 5th seed by the weekend, given MEM loses as expected. That would make our game on Wed against DEN meaningless. If so, Dame and CJ could be rested for a whole week before the playoffs. Given how well Dame has done with rest, that is exactly what we need.

With GS losing to Min last night, they only need one more loss and they cant break the record. If that happens, do they sit for the Mem games and thus not allow us to take the 5th spot?
This is now my biggest concern with making the 5th spot.

 

[illmatic99]

With GS losing to Min last night, they only need one more loss and they cant break the record. If that happens, do they sit for the Mem games and thus not allow us to take the 5th spot?
This is now my biggest concern with making the 5th spot.

GS should be able to beat MEM even without Curry/Draymond.

 

[Eastoff]

IMO, that's beyond dispute, but also goes hand-in-hand with what others are saying. If I were to put numbers on it, Dame is basically 65% PG, and CJ is barely 20% PG. Dame can create for others, and should continue to do so, but just a little bit more often than he currently does. CJ is much better off the ball than Dame is, but he obviously has the ability to break his man down off the dribble very well. When he does however, he's going to the rim, and he should; when he plays PG, he much too often dribbles into traps or corners, and the flow offense stagnates. As he continues to grow in his game, CJ's going to get better at finishing at the rim as well as at drawing fouls, and then he will be the undisputed #1 scoring option on this team. I think CJ is still trying, more or less, to defer offensively to his overall-more-talented teammate, but I think the team would be better as a whole if Dame and CJ both honestly acknowledged which of the two is actually the better scorer.

I think this is partly why Cj has better shot selection. He wants to defer to Damian and not look the ball hog.

 

[Tunchi]

I agree Curry has more support which is why I wasn't only looking at this season. Even above in the Curry comparison (which I didn't bring up...lol) I went back 2 years to when Dame had LA, Lopez, Batum and Matthews.

I know thats what Im saying Dame has always been like this even when he had tons of help

 

[TBpup]

Kinda gets me thinking what Terry will do to prep for LA or OKC in that week. Always have felt Terry's inability to change his strategy to opponents was his biggest weakness, but that home and home series vs DAL where he made massive changes to guarding Dirk in the second game gave me some hope that Terry has improved in this respect.

Clips have completely muzzled Dame this season. Hope a weak of preparation for that defense can help Terry figure out answers.

As of now, Clips are our most likely opponent at 83% likelihood. OKC next at 14%. I'd start prepping now.

I think Terry does a good job of game preparation. It's the in-game adjustments that seem to be lacking.

I get that and agree that there's no doubt Curry is the more efficient scorer. But if Curry is the benchmark, every guard is going to come up short. I don't disagree with you that Dame needs to get to a point where his shooting percentage is better. I just think that focusing on that this year misses just what a fantastic job he's done pushing his young team into the playoffs when nobody gave them a chance.

Again, which is why I looked back over more than just this season and have responded to some comparisons with examples of veteran surroundings and new/young surroundings. This is not something that is just recent or it would be too small of a sample size to come up with any conclusions other than a somewhat concerning trend.

 

[Orion Bailey]

GS should be able to beat MEM even without Curry/Draymond.

I hope so, but they couldnt beat Minni with them...

 

[blue9]

Hope a weak of preparation for that defense can help Terry figure out answers.

Now that's a funny typo [or spelling error]!

 

[illmatic99]

Now that's a funny typo [or spelling error]!

Freudian slip?

:MARIS61:

 

[B-Roy]

IMO, that's beyond dispute, but also goes hand-in-hand with what others are saying. If I were to put numbers on it, Dame is basically 65% PG, and CJ is barely 20% PG. Dame can create for others, and should continue to do so, but just a little bit more often than he currently does. CJ is much better off the ball than Dame is, but he obviously has the ability to break his man down off the dribble very well. When he does however, he's going to the rim, and he should; when he plays PG, he much too often dribbles into traps or corners, and the flow offense stagnates. As he continues to grow in his game, CJ's going to get better at finishing at the rim as well as at drawing fouls, and then he will be the undisputed #1 scoring option on this team. I think CJ is still trying, more or less, to defer offensively to his overall-more-talented teammate, but I think the team would be better as a whole if Dame and CJ both honestly acknowledged which of the two is actually the better scorer.

Here's a cool stat, it's not totally related but it kind of is.

Since February, CJ has been shooting the 3 ball at around a 46-47% clip. Prior to that, he shot 35% in Jan, 42% in Dec and 38% in Nov. 40% is good don't get me wrong, but the difference between 40% and 47% at the volume CJ shoots is the difference between a plain good shooter like Wesley Matthews and an elite shooter like JJ Redick or Kyle Korver.

So I went on the NBA stats site (awesome site by the way) and I got this:



Check out the % of threes that CJ was assisted on in Oct-January versus the % assisted on in Feb-March (April is a small sample size buffed by his 6/6 game against Miami). The correlation seems pretty telling. Two hypothesis:

1.) CJ is working off the ball more and Lillard/the team is looking to get CJ open more.
2.) CJ has improved his shot selection by not taking as many off the dribble threes.

Now here's Dame's:



Nearly half of his 3s are unassisted. We all know Dame loves taking threes off the bounce. It's also no secret that unassisted 3s are less accurate than assisted 3s. Even in CJ's worse months, a majority of his 3s were still assisted.

I think what I'm trying to get at is this: Dame is a better shooter than his percentages indicate. The difference is probably not as big as the 37% - 42% difference between Dame and CJ's 3PT%, but he needs to pick his spots better. He really should improve his shot selection, at least a little bit.....as good as he is, he's not a Steph Curry like shooter.

EDIT: Just for kicks, here's Steph:

Even Steph's unassisted 3pt% is less than Dame's. A lot of that has to due with having a great playmaker like Green, but the point stands.

 

[Tunchi]

Here's a cool stat, it's not totally related but it kind of is.

Since February, CJ has been shooting the 3 ball at around a 46-47% clip. Prior to that, he shot 35% in Jan, 42% in Dec and 38% in Nov. 40% is good don't get me wrong, but the difference between 40% and 47% at the volume CJ shoots is the difference between a plain good shooter like Wesley Matthews and an elite shooter JJ Redick or Kyle Korver.

So I went on the NBA stats site (awesome site by the way) and I got this:

View attachment 8525

Check out the % of threes that CJ was assisted on in Oct-January versus the % assisted on in Feb-March (April is a small sample size buffed by his 6/6 game against Miami). The correlation seems pretty telling. Two hypothesis:

1.) CJ is working off the ball more and Lillard/the team is looking to get CJ open more.
2.) CJ has improved his shot selection by not taking as many off the dribble threes.

Now here's Dame's:

View attachment 8526

Nearly half of his 3s are unassisted. We all know Dame loves taking threes off the bounce. It's also no secret that unassisted 3s are less accurate than assisted 3s. Even in CJ's worse months, a majority of his 3s were still assisted.

I think what I'm trying to get at is this: Dame is a better shooter than his percentages indicate. The difference is probably not as big as the 37% - 42% difference between Dame and CJ's 3PT%, but he needs to pick his spots better. He really should improve his shot selection, at least a little bit.....as good as he is, he's not a Steph Curry like shooter.

Yup exactly my point. The eye test definitely supports this as well. Dame is just weird as hell with his shot selections. That what he needs to work on that's why Cj is much more consistent than dame