Lillard’s confidence is shot

[wizenheimer]

Before last night's game: they were 4 points better over the season when he's on the court:
View attachment 41713
Interesting that the much-maligned Nurk easily leads here. (Also: Smith is +5 in 214 fewer minutes...)

where's that from?

 

[Rastapopoulos]

where's that from?

http://www.dougstats.com/

I like it because it's so old-school and basic. He's been doing it for literally decades.

 

[UKRAINEFAN]

Before last night's game: they were 4 points better over the season when he's on the court:
View attachment 41713
Interesting that the much-maligned Nurk easily leads here. (Also: Smith is +5 in 214 fewer minutes...)
EDIT: updated to include last night's game:
View attachment 41714

I don't quite understand why Cody's numbers are so bad. Every time I see him he seems to be doing something useful (usually while getting hurt), but he's got the worst +/- on the team. And contrast it with Nance, who plays a lot alongside him...

I believe that Zeller accomplished that -18 entirely in the last two games so it could just be something freaky.

 

[HailBlazers]

His first NBA game was one of the best of his career. 23/11 and a win over Lakers.

 

[Rastapopoulos]

This should make @THE HCP happy:

 

[Fez Hammersticks]

 

[mook]

"Lillard's confidence is shot." Just think about that sentence, and how ludicrous it sounds if you said it 9 games ago.

Something is clearly wrong with him. I wish he'd step away from the game and just work on whatever physical or mental thing is going on with him.

Because it crushes me to watch him play the way he's playing.

 

[Blazinaway]

"Lillard's confidence is shot." Just think about that sentence, and how ludicrous it sounds if you said it 9 games ago.

Something is clearly wrong with him. I wish he'd step away from the game and just work on whatever physical or mental thing is going on with him.

Because it crushes me to watch him play the way he's playing.

Feel the same way, he has been great for this team the past years, if something is wrong lets get is fixed thru surgery or time odd, this is simply painful to watch and he needs to address this or he will lose significant respect IMO. Maybe I am wrong and its "just a slump" but to me it seems more serious than that, we see

 

[Minstrel]

I don't think his confidence is shot. He wouldn't be firing up the shots that he is, or the volume, if his confidence was shot. You want someone who's confidence was shot--it was Ben Simmons in the playoffs last season. That's what someone who's confidence on the offensive end is gone looks like.

At this point, my view of the likeliest scenario is that the abdominal injury that he's been dealing with for years is starting to catch up to him. Yes, he clearly dealt with it fine before, but conditions can worsen plus he's getting older every second (just like all of us) and so playing with an injury doesn't strike me as a stable situation wherein its effects will never change.

 

[bobf]

A plot of 2021 3PT% vs Career from 2010. Green line is "normalcy" where 2021 and Career are equal. Gives an idea of Dame's slump vs others. Still looks like it could be pure variance. Just my luck that Carmello as having as good a year as Dame is having a bad year.

 

[bobf]

Dame has been surpassed by Beal for the worst 2021 3-Point slump. BUT.... Dame is still -2.6 standard deviations below his career which is more significant than Beal's at -2.2 because Dame has take a lot more 3's this year. We're not out of the woods. This could be variance. This could still be something worse.

 

[swish3]

In the Nov 6 Lakers game win, Dame scored 6 of 14 which is 42.85%. Dame is on his way back!

 

[mook]

Dame has been surpassed by Beal for the worst 2021 3-Point slump. BUT.... Dame is still -2.6 standard deviations below his career which is more significant than Beal's at -2.2 because Dame has take a lot more 3's this year. We're not out of the woods. This could be variance. This could still be something worse.

View attachment 41774

That's a pretty cool chart. With all the criticism of the new ball, people have been pointing to down years (so far) of some shooters, but that chart seems to show it's mostly just noise. Some guys are way up, some guys are way down. Looks like generally a little down (probably the ball + more aggressive perimeter defenses.) But you have to figure there will be a regression to the mean as the sample size grows.

I really, really hope that Dame continues to....regress(!)

 

[bobf]

Most of it does appear to be noise as you have players above and below the line in roughly similar proportions.

FG% is down a bit from 0.463 prior two years to 0.448 this year which though seemingly insignificant is about 5 standard deviations, so more than just noise.

Yeah, I really hope Dame continues to “regress”. This team is talented enough to have an outside shot at a title if the stars align:
Dame returns to Dame
Nurk plays like his best season
Ant’s play is for real
CJ plays like last year
Little continues to develops
We are completely healthy come playoffs

 

[Trail Rhino]

Lillard’s confidence is shot? No, he isn’t Ben Simmons.

 

[Fairly-Hard]

Dame has been surpassed by Beal for the worst 2021 3-Point slump. BUT.... Dame is still -2.6 standard deviations below his career which is more significant than Beal's at -2.2 because Dame has take a lot more 3's this year. We're not out of the woods. This could be variance. This could still be something worse.

View attachment 41774

Great graphs. They really show the variance.
My overall feeling is I feel the damage is done this year as far as getting all the way back. What i would like is for him to just fall back to his norm from here on out (Much more likely). Simple fact is we are about 1/8 of the way through the season. He would have to be on absolute FIRE to get his averages all the way back. We need the 38-40% Dame and that will win games. I just don't see a way to bring 24% back to 40% this season. I can see him going 38-40% the rest of the way.

If that makes any sense?

 

[bobf]

Great graphs. They really show the variance.
My overall feeling is I feel the damage is done this year as far as getting all the way back. What i would like is for him to just fall back to his norm from here on out (Much more likely). Simple fact is we are about 1/8 of the way through the season. He would have to be on absolute FIRE to get his averages all the way back. We need the 38-40% Dame and that will win games. I just don't see a way to bring 24% back to 40% this season. I can see him going 38-40% the rest of the way.

If that makes any sense?

Yeah it makes complete sense. I didn’t mean he needs to get his season average back to what it was. Just if he can get back to normal for the rest of the season. He could get his 3 pt up to 37% though by going 39% the rest of the way.

But I’d rather he got his free throw rate back to what it was. He can’t match past efficiency without that.

 

[RonBrewer]

This aged well.

 

[AldoTrapani]

This aged well.

Yaaaa he’s going to have 82 straight bad games lol that’s realistic

 

[Fairly-Hard]

But I’d rather he got his free throw rate back to what it was. He can’t match past efficiency without that.

IMO i just don't think that will happen this year. It's a combination of the calls. Even the touch fouls the refs called on the floor last year are not being called. Those fouls might not have given him shots directly but indirectly they accumulated fouls. Teams got into the penalty faster. So then even a bump sent dame to the line. He got more overall FT's and because he got more trips he made more and the team got those little rests of 30 seconds here and 30 seconds there. Then like blood in the water Dame would take advantage of those calls. It translated to drives to the basket as well. Guys got shy about guarding him because if they bumped him he was going to the line.
The rule changes have really changed the game no question.

 

[Fairly-Hard]

Yaaaa he’s going to have 82 straight bad games lol that’s realistic

Look man. Not sure you really understand but here you go.

"Yaaaa he's going to have 82 straight bad games lol that's realistic" is exactly what this is about. He had a bad stretch but his career shows that bad stretches even out and he will average 37-40% shooting the 3 ball by years end.

You continue to miss that very point. Damian Lillard will get hot. He has had way more Hot Streaks than cold throughout his career but the rule changes and new ball and injuries might hinder those "Hot Streaks" a bit this year.

 

[blazerkor]

Lillard’s confidence is shot? No, he isn’t Ben Simmons.

You're right Dame shot like shit for 9 games and Simmons only did it for 7.

 

[bobf]

IMO i just don't think that will happen this year. It's a combination of the calls. Even the touch fouls the refs called on the floor last year are not being called. Those fouls might not have given him shots directly but indirectly they accumulated fouls. Teams got into the penalty faster. So then even a bump sent dame to the line. He got more overall FT's and because he got more trips he made more and the team got those little rests of 30 seconds here and 30 seconds there. Then like blood in the water Dame would take advantage of those calls. It translated to drives to the basket as well. Guys got shy about guarding him because if they bumped him he was going to the line.
The rule changes have really changed the game no question.

I kind of forgot about all the penalty fouls Dame picks up. But this is ridiculous.

Free throw rates (FTA / FGA)

Harden is down 20%
Leagues is down 10%
Dame is down 50%

 

[wizenheimer]

I kind of forgot about all the penalty fouls Dame picks up. But this is ridiculous.

Free throw rates (FTA / FGA)

Harden is down 20%
Leagues is down 10%
Dame is down 50%

I'll keep saying it: Dame has been a victim of the new rules. They were aimed at players like Harden, but what is really happening is the officials are allowing lots of contact on dribble drives and that's costing Dame points. He's shooting his normal rate of shots at the rim but his FG% at the rim has dropped from .631 to .510. he's getting bumped, held, and redirected more than ever on his dribble drives. And while Dame has fished for whistles attacking the basket, he's never really done so using unnatural basketball moves

the officials have overcompensated and swallowed their whistles so far

 

[Hoopguru]

I'll keep saying it: Dame has been a victim of the new rules. They were aimed at players like Harden, but what is really happening is the officials are allowing lots of contact on dribble drives and that's costing Dame points. He's shooting his normal rate of shots at the rim but his FG% at the rim has dropped from .631 to .510. he's getting bumped, held, and redirected more than ever on his dribble drives. And while Dame has fished for whistles attacking the basket, he's never really done so using unnatural basketball moves

the officials have overcompensated and swallowed their whistles so far

yep and that little cushion he had because defenders didn't want to be suckered into a shooting foul has messed up his rhythm and shot. And when a player doesn't get to the free throw a lot that can effect his getting into a rhythm.
Players like Doncic and Curry have noticed it too.

 

[bobf]

I'll keep saying it: Dame has been a victim of the new rules. They were aimed at players like Harden, but what is really happening is the officials are allowing lots of contact on dribble drives and that's costing Dame points. He's shooting his normal rate of shots at the rim but his FG% at the rim has dropped from .631 to .510. he's getting bumped, held, and redirected more than ever on his dribble drives. And while Dame has fished for whistles attacking the basket, he's never really done so using unnatural basketball moves

the officials have overcompensated and swallowed their whistles so far

I get that but what I don’t get is why is Dame in particular SO much more a victim of the rules.

 

[wizenheimer]

I get that but what I don’t get is why is Dame in particular SO much more a victim of the rules.

maybe you need to crank up your algorithms.

I see that Trae Young is down 41%; Beal is down 40%; Donovan Mitchell is down 30%. Maybe it's that some of the smaller players are being impacted by the increase in 'legal' physicality. It could also be that players who dribble-drive to the hoop more and have lower assisted FG rates are finding their offense more impeded. I know Dame has historically had real low assisted FG rates. Maybe dozen-dribble drives outside-in just have more opportunities for physical defense and contact to limit whistles, and that's hitting Dame harder than most players

I can't think of any other reason why Dame's FG% at the rim has dropped from .636 to a career low .510. Of course, running the math that's 49 FGA's at the rim so far, meaning he's made 25. If he'd just 1 more of his attempts over every 2 game stretch his % would be .612. So...maybe sample size

 

[julius]

This was a nice reverse jinx thread.

 

[wizenheimer]

This was a nice reverse jinx thread.

doesn't mentioning the reverse-jinx reverse the reverse?

Dame shoots like shit Tuesday I'll know who to blame

 

[bobf]

maybe you need to crank up your algorithms.

I see that Trae Young is down 41%; Beal is down 40%; Donovan Mitchell is down 30%. Maybe it's that some of the smaller players are being impacted by the increase in 'legal' physicality. It could also be that players who dribble-drive to the hoop more and have lower assisted FG rates are finding their offense more impeded. I know Dame has historically had real low assisted FG rates. Maybe dozen-dribble drives outside-in just have more opportunities for physical defense and contact to limit whistles, and that's hitting Dame harder than most players

I can't think of any other reason why Dame's FG% at the rim has dropped from .636 to a career low .510. Of course, running the math that's 49 FGA's at the rim so far, meaning he's made 25. If he'd just 1 more of his attempts over every 2 game stretch his % would be .612. So...maybe sample size

I was already on it LOL. X axis is 2020. Y is 2021. I chose players with a FTR >= 0.200 and at least 500 shots in 2020 and at least 100 shots in 2021. Median FGA in 2021 is around 150. Even stats like are subject to variance. Don't know what the losers have in common. Seems like bigger players are less affected.