lock for the playoffs

[julius]

Why is Utah a lock? Their record (once healthy) wasn't significantly better than Portlands record over the same stretch (when Portland lost some players to injuries).

 

[Rastapopoulos]

I picked Minny. They were comfortably in 3rd when Butler went down, and I think he is their best player, who is in his prime. I think losing your best player is a fluke and won't happen again, making Minny a lock to me.

Funny, I see Minny as the weakest because of the turmoil. Butler's bitching about everyone else and broadcasting that he's leaving ASAP. And without him they're the worst defensive team in the league. KAT is looking much more Shareef Abdur-Rahim than Anthony Davis, too. I think Jokic is clearly better than him, and Porzingis might be too, if he hadn't got injured.

 

[Rastapopoulos]

Why is Utah a lock? Their record (once healthy) wasn't significantly better than Portlands record over the same stretch (when Portland lost some players to injuries).

I guess people see Mitchell as the New Dwyane Wade. More importantly, Gobert only played 56 games last year and he's their real MVP.

 

[julius]

I guess people see Mitchell as the New Dwyane Wade. More importantly, Gobert only played 56 games last year and he's their real MVP.

Yeah, like I said. once they got healthy, their record wasn't significantly better than Portlands (especially considering they had a few injuries at the end of the season).

I'm not saying Utah is worse than Portland, just curious how much of the downplaying is due to the horrible playoff series last year, and not so much based on facts or actual #'s.

Portland almost won 50 games with no decent backup SF, SG, PF or C, and a mediocre backup PG. They upgraded at least 2 of those spots, not necessarily because the players they brought in were so awesome, but the players they replaced (Shabazz and Pat) were just that bad.

 

[e_blazer]

It’s kind of funny that, except for the Warriors, the West is about as close to achieving parity as I’ve ever seen. It’s kind of one of those Dickensian best of times, worst of times things. The Warriors, on paper at least, are miles better than anyone else, but everyone else is competitive amongst themselves.

 

[Hoopguru]

You werent saying they could make it, you said you consider them a lock, which was very funny to me, so I gave you a big ol' lol.

Somehow that means I'm "sensitive to them improving" or something like that...?

...lol.

Just curious who would you select of the group?

 

[James lamphear]

Those 4 is a toss up for making the playoffs this year. I will still rooting for the Blazers to be that one. But will come down to injuries though.

 

[Rastapopoulos]

Yeah, like I said. once they got healthy, their record wasn't significantly better than Portlands (especially considering they had a few injuries at the end of the season).

I'm not saying Utah is worse than Portland, just curious how much of the downplaying is due to the horrible playoff series last year, and not so much based on facts or actual #'s.

Portland almost won 50 games with no decent backup SF, SG, PF or C, and a mediocre backup PG. They upgraded at least 2 of those spots, not necessarily because the players they brought in were so awesome, but the players they replaced (Shabazz and Pat) were just that bad.

It's probably overcorrection - everybody thought Utah would tank because they lost Gordon last year. (Well, I didn't, but I'm some kind of Hoops Nostradamus. Or Nosferatu maybe.) Plus I think Mitchell is viewed as a budding all-star, even though his efficiency is not great. If they stay healthy they deserve their high ranking. Great coach, great organization.

 

[Rastapopoulos]

Yeah, like I said. once they got healthy, their record wasn't significantly better than Portlands (especially considering they had a few injuries at the end of the season).

I'm not saying Utah is worse than Portland, just curious how much of the downplaying is due to the horrible playoff series last year, and not so much based on facts or actual #'s.

Portland almost won 50 games with no decent backup SF, SG, PF or C, and a mediocre backup PG. They upgraded at least 2 of those spots, not necessarily because the players they brought in were so awesome, but the players they replaced (Shabazz and Pat) were just that bad.

Don't you think, though, that other teams will study the Pels' strategy closely for how to play us? Unless you think only a team with Anthony Davis and Jrue Holiday can do that, then that's worrying.

 

[tlongII]

Dubs, Rockets, and Lakers are locks. That’s it.

 

[Mediocre Man]

Did I really need to specify it was only those 4 teams as options?

 

[HailBlazers]

Did I really need to specify it was only those 4 teams as options?

Do your posts really need to be insufferable?

 

[calvin natt]

Do we need to add the disclaimer of “if they remain mostly healthy”? People saying nobody is a lock or only GS...cmon. Houston, Lebron, GS, Spurs (kawhi didn’t even play last year and they added Derozan and Poetl), Utah, they are in

 

[Rastapopoulos]

Who's a lock NOT to make it?

Phoenix, Sacramento,...? Clippers probably won't.

 

[Rastapopoulos]

I wonder if the Spurs are shopping LaMarcus or if they don't want to freak DeRozan out any more than he currently is.
What would be a good place for him? And a trade the Spurs could live with?

 

[PtldPlatypus]

I wonder if the Spurs are shopping LaMarcus or if they don't want to freak DeRozan out any more than he currently is.
What would be a good place for him? And a trade the Spurs could live with?

Washington would love him. Aldridge for Porter?

 

[Mediocre Man]

Do your posts really need to be insufferable?

Apparently to some?

 

[Rastapopoulos]

Washington would love him. Aldridge for Porter?

That makes a lot of sense - Porter strikes me as very Kawhi-like (albeit not as talented). Another idea, if the Spurs really want to unload all their old guys:

Or if Washington need incentive to give up Porter, add a Pau Gasol-for-Mahinmi swap.

 

[Rastapopoulos]

Sidenote: if you're ever down on some of our contracts, check out Miami's! And Riley's supposed to be the genius GM...

 

[Rastapopoulos]

 

[Phatguysrule]

Portland will make it. A couple of the others probably will too.

 

[Boob-No-More]

OKC: Russ and PG are really good I think if Roberson is healthy by Dec. and Patterson bounces back I think they're top 7-8 on D and borderline top 10 on O.

Healthy Roberson helps their defense, but hurts their offense. Westbrook (0.293) and Roberson (0.222) will be the worst 3-point shooting starting backcourt in the league. Throw in Schröder (0.290) and that may be the worst 3-point shooting guard rotation in the modern era.

I'm not sure what Patterson can bounce back to. Here's his PER and TS% for the last three seasons:

2015-16:
PER = 10.6
TS% = .534

2016-17:
PER = 10.8
TS% = .542

2017-18:
PER = 10.0
TS% = .555

His raw numbers were down last year, but that was almost entirely due to decreased minutes playing behind Carmelo and Jerami Grant. He is who he is. With Melo gone, both Grant and Patterson have moved up one spot in the depth chart at PF. So, Patterson's raw numbers should increase, but his efficiency won't (his .386 3FG% last season, actually tied his career high). If anything, playing more minutes against better competition may result in decreased efficiency. He's a weak rebounder, a poor passer and an average, at best, defender.

Lack of depth will again kill the Thunder. Here's their current depth chart:

PG: Russell Westbrook, Dennis Schröder, Raymond Felton, Deonte Burton (two-way)
SG: Andre Roberson, Alex Abrines, Terrence Ferguson, Hamidou Diallo
SF: Paul George, Kyle Singler, Abdel Nader, Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot
PF: Jerami Grant, Patrick Patterson
C: Steven Adams, Nerlens Noel, Tyler Davis (two-way)

That's a whole lot of guys, especially on the wings, with single digits PERs once you get past the starting 5 (Alex Abrines PER = 9.0, Terrence Ferguson PER = 7.4, Kyle Singler PER = 5.9, Abdel Nader PER = 5.1, Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot, PER = 7.0). Given Noel's injury history, they are even thinner up front than the Blazers.

I understand they plan to run Westbrook and Schröder together to let Russ play off the ball a little, but I'm not sure how that is going to work. Those are two very high USG% guys who are used to having the ball in their hands and both are terrible 3-point shooters.

Paul George is a great 2-way player and Westbrook is good enough to always have his team competing for a playoff birth (while simultaneously holding them back from anything greater), but they are a long way from being a lock. I know a lot of people consider trading Carmelo addition by subtraction, but when I look at their depth chart, especially at the 2, 3 and 4 spots, I'm not sure if they will win as many games as they did last season.

BNM

 

[Boob-No-More]

Will anyone be surprised if:

1) MIN has terrible team chemisrtry and regresses from last season.
2) Thibs plays his starters into the ground and MIN fades down the stretch

No one seems happy there. Butler wants out and doesn't like their young guys. And, the young guys know it. Wiggins got (ridiculously over) paid, but is still unhappy with his role as 3rd banana. Now Towns wants his and isn't happy about not immediately getting offered a max extension. So much bad blood in that locker room.

BNM

 

[THE HCP]

It’s kind of funny that, except for the Warriors, the West is about as close to achieving parity as I’ve ever seen. It’s kind of one of those Dickensian best of times, worst of times things. The Warriors, on paper at least, are miles better than anyone else, but everyone else is competitive amongst themselves.

Your Dicks in what?

 

[BonesJones]

Just curious who would you select of the group?

GSW & HOU.

 

[BonesJones]

Will anyone be surprised if:

1) MIN has terrible team chemisrtry and regresses from last season.
2) Thibs plays his starters into the ground and MIN fades down the stretch

No one seems happy there. Butler wants out and doesn't like their young guys. And, the young guys know it. Wiggins got (ridiculously over) paid, but is still unhappy with his role as 3rd banana. Now Towns wants his and isn't happy about not immediately getting offered a max extension. So much bad blood in that locker room.

BNM

If they didnt have this turmoil surrounding them theyd probably be my 3rd lock. When healthy, they were the 3rd best team in the West last year. I think this whole thing blows up in their face though.

 

[BonesJones]

Healthy Roberson helps their defense, but hurts their offense. Westbrook (0.293) and Roberson (0.222) will be the worst 3-point shooting starting backcourt in the league. Throw in Schröder (0.290) and that may be the worst 3-point shooting guard rotation in the modern era.

I'm not sure what Patterson can bounce back to. Here's his PER and TS% for the last three seasons:

2015-16:
PER = 10.6
TS% = .534

2016-17:
PER = 10.8
TS% = .542

2017-18:
PER = 10.0
TS% = .555

His raw numbers were down last year, but that was almost entirely due to decreased minutes playing behind Carmelo and Jerami Grant. He is who he is. With Melo gone, both Grant and Patterson have moved up one spot in the depth chart at PF. So, Patterson's raw numbers should increase, but his efficiency won't (his .386 3FG% last season, actually tied his career high). If anything, playing more minutes against better competition may result in decreased efficiency. He's a weak rebounder, a poor passer and an average, at best, defender.

Lack of depth will again kill the Thunder. Here's their current depth chart:

PG: Russell Westbrook, Dennis Schröder, Raymond Felton, Deonte Burton (two-way)
SG: Andre Roberson, Alex Abrines, Terrence Ferguson, Hamidou Diallo
SF: Paul George, Kyle Singler, Abdel Nader, Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot
PF: Jerami Grant, Patrick Patterson
C: Steven Adams, Nerlens Noel, Tyler Davis (two-way)

That's a whole lot of guys, especially on the wings, with single digits PERs once you get past the starting 5 (Alex Abrines PER = 9.0, Terrence Ferguson PER = 7.4, Kyle Singler PER = 5.9, Abdel Nader PER = 5.1, Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot, PER = 7.0). Given Noel's injury history, they are even thinner up front than the Blazers.

I understand they plan to run Westbrook and Schröder together to let Russ play off the ball a little, but I'm not sure how that is going to work. Those are two very high USG% guys who are used to having the ball in their hands and both are terrible 3-point shooters.

Paul George is a great 2-way player and Westbrook is good enough to always have his team competing for a playoff birth (while simultaneously holding them back from anything greater), but they are a long way from being a lock. I know a lot of people consider trading Carmelo addition by subtraction, but when I look at their depth chart, especially at the 2, 3 and 4 spots, I'm not sure if they will win as many games as they did last season.

BNM

It's funny that a lot of those people consider Schroder a good addition at the same time. Schroder is just as bad of a defender as Melo, a worse shooter, and needs the ball in his hands even more to be effective.

 

[riverman]

Will anyone be surprised if:

1) MIN has terrible team chemisrtry and regresses from last season.
2) Thibs plays his starters into the ground and MIN fades down the stretch

No one seems happy there. Butler wants out and doesn't like their young guys. And, the young guys know it. Wiggins got (ridiculously over) paid, but is still unhappy with his role as 3rd banana. Now Towns wants his and isn't happy about not immediately getting offered a max extension. So much bad blood in that locker room.

BNM

Thibs was a great asst coach..maybe the best but as a head coach he grates on players and the front office the way Stan Van Gundy does..both have a history of dysfunction

 

[Hoopguru]

GSW & HOU.

wrong group...

 

[Boob-No-More]

Your Dicks in what?

Must resist Mrs. HCP joke...

BNM