lock for the playoffs

[Mediocre Man]

This was on Twitter a few days ago. The results were SA
Min
Por
Den

I realize this will be skewed here, but still interesting......I think

 

[JDC]

GSW, Hou, Utah, OKC and Denver feel like locks to me if all are reasonably healthy.

Millsap played 39 games last year and Jamal Murray, Gary Harris and Nikola Jokic should improve. Their depth is very shaky and they won't be able to defend w/o Millsap on the floor but Jokic+Millsap was +11.1 per 100 possessions plus in the 78th percentile on D.

Very thin on the wing, but Wilson chandler was pretty bad last year so even if Torrey Craig is a downgrade, the difference won't matter much.

 

[dviss1]

SA.

 

[TorturedBlazerFan]

Golden State, Houston are the only locks to me.
The next 8 -9 all seem like they could fall in just about any order.

 

[tester551]

Locks: GSW, Houston, Utah, SAS

Fighting for the rest (5-10): Minny, OKC, Portland, NOP, LAL, Denver

 

[Reep]

Sorry, can't vote for any of the above. None of them are remotely "locks". I would put GSW, Houston, and NOP as locks. The rest depend on too many factors.

 

[riverman]

I said Portland but actually I don't think there is a clear lock for the playoffs in the list..I'm not convinced SA will make it either in the west. They would probably be my second choice behind Portland...I believe Portland has as good a chance as SA if not better

 

[andalusian]

Only teams that can withstand an injury to one of the two best players and still be a lock are GSW and Houston. All others are not a lock. From these 4 - either SAS or Portland are more likely to make it than the other two, imho.

 

[Reep]

Only teams that can withstand an injury to one of the two best players and still be a lock are GSW and Houston. All others are not a lock. From these 4 - either SAS or Portland are more likely to make it than the other two, imho.

I probably shouldn't, but I do question Houston in this scenario. With their losses at the wings, could they really withstand an injury to Beard? Last year, yes. This year?? Paul, Gordon, Carmelo, ???, Cappella? Maybe. Defense could be horrific though.

 

[Boob-No-More]

Locks: GSW, Houston, Utah, SAS

Fighting for the rest (5-10): Minny, OKC, Portland, NOP, LAL, Denver

If ever there was a year for eliminating conferences for playoff seeding, this is it. Or, just take the top 10 teams from the West and the top 6 teams from the East.

BNM

 

[andalusian]

I probably shouldn't, but I do question Houston in this scenario. With their losses at the wings, could they really withstand an injury to Beard? Last year, yes. This year?? Paul, Gordon, Carmelo, ???, Cappella? Maybe. Defense could be horrific though.

I still think there is enough fire-power there and leadership from CP3 to make it work - but it is a reasonable point - the wing replacement with Melo could certainly backfire in this scenario.

 

[TorturedBlazerFan]

I still think there is enough fire-power there and leadership from CP3 to make it work - but it is a reasonable point - the wing replacement with Melo could certainly backfire in this scenario.

I’m not the biggest Dantoni fan, but I think we should give him some credit too, aside from his stint with the Knicks he’s been at pretty good at racking up regular season wins.

 

[e_blazer]

I say the same thing every year; that it’s not the best rosters on opening night, but which teams that are the healthiest at the end of the season. That said,here are my thoughts:

I’m not sold on the Spurs, as I’ve said in another thread, because of all of the new faces and lack of leadership. Denver could be really tough if healthy, but health has eluded them in the past and they don’t have much depth. Minnesota has talent and, if Butler stays healthy and isn’t of a mind to try to force his way out of there, they should make the playoffs. Hardly a lock for them though, what with KAT being a bit unhappy lately. I think the Blazers have the advantage of continuity that may get them off to a good start, but Collins is going to have to break out for them to be considered a lock. I think it’s a crapshoot with all four of these teams, but I’ll go with the Blazers because of the Dame factor.

 

[Chris Craig]

I said Portland cause they better be, but any and all of these teams could make it. Denver was missing Milsap most of the year. They added Thomas and have a talented young group. They will prove troublesome.

Minny lost Butler and Slid down the ranks barely making the playoffs by the skin of their teeth. With a healthy Butler they were in with the top best teams in the west. Could a healthy Butler make them a shoo in? He has been the center of a lot of trade talk and has said to be interested in leaving. Has he gotten tired of Minnesota. Will that have an affect?
Portland is always in the mix. They made the playoffs the last three years. Hell making it to the playoffs doesn't seem to be the problem for Portland, its being successfull once they get there. A lock? You can almost count on it.

San Antonio gets a lot of flack, from myself included. Leonard is gone. Manu and Parker left, Pops big three are no more. Still, he has Derozan, Aldridge, and Gay. A big 3? I don't know. But, what makes them more dangerous is their supporting cast of talented young role players. Mills, Murray, White, Walker, Poeltl, Forbes...not to mention old man Gasol and 3 pt assassin Belinelli. They may be good. Very good. The Spurs have made the playoffs more than anybody for a reason, Greg Popovich. How much is left in his tank? Certainly, any team with him at the helm should not be underestimated. The Spurs have pretty much always been a lock for the playoffs.

 

[BonesJones]

GSW, Hou, Utah, OKC and Denver feel like locks to me if all are reasonably healthy.

Millsap played 39 games last year and Jamal Murray, Gary Harris and Nikola Jokic should improve. Their depth is very shaky and they won't be able to defend w/o Millsap on the floor but Jokic+Millsap was +11.1 per 100 possessions plus in the 78th percentile on D.

Very thin on the wing, but Wilson chandler was pretty bad last year so even if Torrey Craig is a downgrade, the difference won't matter much.

DENVER? Lol.

A team that can't defend added a midget who can't defend. How do they get better, when the one player they acquired makes all their problems worse? They were already a very good scoring team, and I see IT as someone who could help them maintain but not improve that. They were such a good offense that his addition doesn't improve that end. Millsap is ageing and should take a step back, and he also wasn't of much help since he hurt their offense almost as much as he helped their defense.

And OKC? They just added the PG version if Melo. How did they get better???

So why the hell are they a lock?

 

[calvin natt]

Spurs

 

[BonesJones]

OKC and DEN are so horribly overrated, just like they were last year.

 

[JDC]

DENVER? Lol.

A team that can't defend added a midget who can't defend. How do they get better, when the one player they acquired makes all their problems worse? They were already a very good scoring team, and I see IT as someone who could help them maintain but not improve that. They were such a good offense that his addition doesn't improve that end. Millsap is ageing and should take a step back, and he also wasn't of much help since he hurt their offense almost as much as he helped their defense.

And OKC? They just added the PG version if Melo. How did they get better???

So why the hell are they a lock?

Denver: Better health and internal improvement is worth 5+ wins imo. IT is a wildcard but he's replacing the worst back up pg in the league.

OKC: Russ and PG are really good I think if Roberson is healthy by Dec. and Patterson bounces back I think they're top 7-8 on D and borderline top 10 on O.

 

[BonesJones]

Denver: Better health and internal improvement is worth 5+ wins imo. IT is a wildcard but he's replacing the worst back up pg in the league.

OKC: Russ and PG are really good I think if Roberson is healthy by Dec. and Patterson bounces back I think they're top 7-8 on D and borderline top 10 on O.

Internal improvement? They're going to be worse on defense with IT, and were already pretty maxed out offensively. I dont see the improvement.

Better health? They had one guy hurt in Millsap whos ageing and could get hurt again. IT has injury concerns as well. It's just as likely their injury problems are worse next year than better.

OKC: Patterson bounces back? That's just as likely as PG regressing to the mean after a career shooting year. The likelihood of each cancels out. They'll have a lesser half season of Roberson than the year before. So where's the improvement there?

 

[JDC]

Internal improvement? They're going to be worse on defense with IT, and were already pretty maxed out offensively. I dont see the improvement.

Better health? They had one guy hurt in Millsap whos ageing and could get hurt again. IT has injury concerns as well. It's just as likely their injury problems are worse next year than better.

OKC: Patterson bounces back? That's just as likely as PG regressing to the mean after a career shooting year. The likelihood of each cancels out. They'll have a lesser half season of Roberson than the year before. So where's the improvement there?

Fuck man. I've already given my reasons. We are all projecting here.

I don't need to further explain myself when all you're saying is that you think what I'm projecting is less likely to happen than I personally believe.

 

[TorturedBlazerFan]

Fuck man. I've already given my reasons. We are all projecting here.

I don't need to further explain myself when all you're saying is that you think what I'm projecting is less likely to happen than I personally believe.

I respect your opinion, I think OKC may just be better on account of no Melo.
Denver just doesn’t scare me at all. You may be right, I guess they’ll play the games to answer those questions for us.

 

[BonesJones]

Fuck man. I've already given my reasons. We are all projecting here.

I don't need to further explain myself when all you're saying is that you think what I'm projecting is less likely to happen than I personally believe.

Yet you replied to me... So why am I supposed to not respond with my own viewpoints? Dont be so sensitive...

 

[BonesJones]

I respect your opinion, I think OKC may just be better on account of no Melo.
Denver just doesn’t scare me at all. You may be right, I guess they’ll play the games to answer those questions for us.

Dennis Schroeder is the PG version of Melo though, maybe worse haha.

 

[JDC]

Yet you replied to me... So why am I supposed to not respond with my own viewpoints? Dont be so sensitive...

This is hilarious....

 

[BonesJones]

This is hilarious....

Ok buddy.

 

[JDC]

Ok buddy.

You lol'ed at my initial post and seemed pretty sensitive to the idea that Denver might improve.

Maybe the won't...who knows? But I thought I gave some legitimate reasons on why they could.

 

[BonesJones]

You lol'ed at my initial post and seemed pretty sensitive to the idea that Denver might improve.

Maybe the won't...who knows? But I thought I gave some legitimate reasons on why they could.

You werent saying they could make it, you said you consider them a lock, which was very funny to me, so I gave you a big ol' lol.

Somehow that means I'm "sensitive to them improving" or something like that...?

...lol.

 

[Rastapopoulos]

What if none of them is a lock?

 

[Wizard Mentor]

I picked Minny. They were comfortably in 3rd when Butler went down, and I think he is their best player, who is in his prime. I think losing your best player is a fluke and won't happen again, making Minny a lock to me.

btw, their defense was averagish when Butler went down, and plummeted afterwards.

note: I didn't check stats here, just going off of vague memories. Happy to be corrected if I'm wrong.

 

[Harry's Raincoat]

None of the listed teams is a LOCK. They must play the games, they probably must avoid serious injuries too. GSW is a lock to make it. No one else.

Spurs, Nuggets, T'Wolves, Lakers, Jazz, Pelicans, Rockets, Thunder, Grizzlies and Blazers all will be competing for spots.