Lowe Podcast: Portland talking to Orl/Sac?

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Minstrel said:
If Portland is in the discussion with Crabbe, you don't need much to get Noel. If Philadelphia really is looking to dump him for essentially nothing, any team can get in on discussions. Ian Clark is a better version of Crabbe--more efficient perimeter shooter, better passer, better defender. And paid like a tenth as much.
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great point...I forgot about Clark...he's an Olshey type move for sure
 
riverman said:
great point...I forgot about Clark...he's an Olshey type move for sure
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He isn't talkng about Olshey going after Clark, He is talking about GSW offering up Clark to Phi for Noel and that would look better to Phi
 
Blazers Roy said:
That's nice but i don't see how his DraftExress profile relevant to his professional playing career.
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Because it translated directly into elite level NBA defense as a 20-year old rookie. I feel like I've posted it 100 times, but you continue to ignore the facts.

As a 20-year old rookie and a 21-year old playing out of position Nerlens Noel was the ONLY player in the entire NBA to record at least 100 STL and 100 BLKS in each of the last two seasons. He was also 4th in the entire league in DBPM as a rookie and 8th in his second season playing out of position.

For the record, here's a comprehensive list of all players in the history of the NBA under the age of 21 to record at least 100 STL and 100 BLK in a season:

Nerlens Noel: 2014-15, Age = 20, STL = 133, BLK = 142, DBPM = 4.5
Andre Drummond: 2013-14, Age = 20, STL = 101, BLK = 131, DBPM = 0.5
Andrei Kirilenko: 2001-02, Age = 20, STL = 116, BLK = 159, DBPM = 3.0
Kevin Garnett: 1996-97, Age = 20, STL = 105, BLK = 163, DBPM = 2.6

And here's of all rookies to do it in the last 35 years:

Nerlens Noel: 2014-15, Age = 20 STL = 133, BLK = 142, DBPM = 4.5
Andrei Kirilenko: 2001-02, Age = 20, STL = 116, BLK = 159, DBPM = 3.0
David Robinson: 1989-90, Age = 24, STL = 138, BLK = 319, DBPM = 3.8

I'm not claiming Noel is the next David Robinson or Kevin Garnett, but you have to admit that's some pretty exclusive company.

BNM

 
No doubt Noel is a very good defender. At least before his knee surgery.

The guy has no shot to speak of. He's taken 28% of his shots from 3-10 feet, 11% of his shots from 10-16 feet. His FG% is .298 from 3-10 feet and .306 from 10-16 feet. He's also nowhere near as gifted a distributor/passer as Plums. His FT% is .601 for his career, not great.

His turnover rate also suggests either poor decision making or hands of stone.
 
Denny Crane said:
No doubt Noel is a very good defender. At least before his knee surgery.

The guy has no shot to speak of. He's taken 28% of his shots from 3-10 feet, 11% of his shots from 10-16 feet. His FG% is .298 from 3-10 feet and .306 from 10-16 feet. He's also nowhere near as gifted a distributor/passer as Plums. His FT% is .601 for his career, not great.

His turnover rate also suggests either poor decision making or hands of stone.
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His "knee surgery" was a minor, elective procedure. He'll be fine. It won't rob him of any athleticism.

Yeah, Ben Wallace sucked at offense too, but I'd gladly take Ben Wallace in his prime right now.

BNM
 
Boob-No-More said:
His "knee surgery" was a minor, elective procedure. He'll be fine. It won't rob him of any athleticism.

Yeah, Ben Wallace sucked at offense too, but I'd gladly take Ben Wallace in his prime right now.

BNM
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As long as we're cherry picking stats...

Noel's DRtg has gone 99 -> 103 -> 106.

Still good, but not a good trend.
 
As for Ben Wallace, he was the very best in the NBA, and one of the best in NBA history, at at least one thing (defense).

I don't think you'll ever say that about Noel.
 
Denny Crane said:
As for Ben Wallace, he was the very best in the NBA, and one of the best in NBA history, at at least one thing (defense).

I don't think you'll ever say that about Noel.
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I wouldn't be so sure.

Compare their stats at the same age and same level of experience.

Noel, as a 20-year old rookie had 133 STLs and 146 BLKs.

Wallace, as a 22-year old rookie had 8 STLsand 11 BLKs.

Noel topped 100 STLs and 100 BLKs in each of his first two seasons at 20 and 21 years of age.

Wallace didn't record his first 100/100 season until his 5th season in the league at the age of 26 and didn't top Noel's rookie defensive stats until his 6th season at the age of 27.

Wallace was a late bloomer. Noel was an elite defender the first minute he set foot on an NBA court as a 20-year old rookie. Wallace did not become an elite defender until he'd been in the league for six years at the age of 27.

Will Noel's peak match Wallace's peak? Impossible to predict, but he's got five more years to get there. He's the same age now as Wallace was as a rookie.

BNM
 
We could do worse than to try to replicate that Pistons Larry Brown team...what a great core! We've got Dame (Chauncey) Rip (CJ) Prince (Mo)
 
Crap, I forgot about Clark. He would indeed work much better for Sixers than Crabbe. Then again would they be allowed to do that? Noel makes considerably more than Clark I think. Isn't Clark on minimum?
 
Clark for Noel makes way too much sense. Hope it does not happen, add Noel to this Warriors team and I bet he finds form again and they will basically be a complete dream team.
 
Sarni said:
Crap, I forgot about Clark. He would indeed work much better for Sixers than Crabbe. Then again would they be allowed to do that? Noel makes considerably more than Clark I think. Isn't Clark on minimum?
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Doesn't have to be 1-to-1

upload_2016-12-23_12-32-23.png

Should be noted however that anyone who trades for Clark loses his bird rights, so Philly might not necessarily want to trade for, essentially, a UFA.
 
Denny Crane said:
As long as we're cherry picking stats...

Noel's DRtg has gone 99 -> 103 -> 106.

Still good, but not a good trend.
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How, exactly was I "cherry picking" stats? I quoted two full season's worth of data.

As far as your DRtg "trend", he was forced to play out of position last season and has played a grand total of 25 minutes this season. Seriously? Way to use a ridiculously small sample size to define a "trend".

I mean shit, if you're going to play those kind of games, you should also note his metioric offensive improvement. He currently has an ORtg of 129. At the rate he's improving, give him another 25 minutes and he'll be the greatest offensive player in the history of the game.

BNM
 
PtldPlatypus said:
Doesn't have to be 1-to-1

View attachment 11427

Should be noted however that anyone who trades for Clark loses his bird rights, so Philly might not necessarily want to trade for, essentially, a UFA.
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Ah and he is out of contract at the end of season, isn't he? Sixers are not doing much this year anyway so they may as well prefer Crabbe who will stay for 3 more seasons. Next year they will have a new point guard from the draft so Crabbe might fit.
 
Sarni said:
Ah and he is out of contract at the end of season, isn't he? Sixers are not doing much this year anyway so they may as well prefer Crabbe who will stay for 3 more seasons. Next year they will have a new point guard from the draft so Crabbe might fit.
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They plan on playing Ben Simmons at PG.

There's really no difference between Simmons/Fultz/Crabbe and Fultz/Crabbe/Simmons though. But they may select Josh Jackson and trott out Simmons/Crabbe/Jackson
 
Boob-No-More said:
Because it translated directly into elite level NBA defense as a 20-year old rookie. I feel like I've posted it 100 times, but you continue to ignore the facts.
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OK, you posted his numbers at a pro level, i still don't see what a pre-draft report on a player who got injured in college have to do with anything.
Why not post his HS number as well?

As a 20-year old rookie and a 21-year old playing out of position Nerlens Noel was the ONLY player in the entire NBA to record at least 100 STL and 100 BLKS in each of the last two seasons. He was also 4th in the entire league in DBPM as a rookie and 8th in his second season playing out of position.

For the record, here's a comprehensive list of all players in the history of the NBA under the age of 21 to record at least 100 STL and 100 BLK in a season:

Nerlens Noel: 2014-15, Age = 20, STL = 133, BLK = 142, DBPM = 4.5
Andre Drummond: 2013-14, Age = 20, STL = 101, BLK = 131, DBPM = 0.5
Andrei Kirilenko: 2001-02, Age = 20, STL = 116, BLK = 159, DBPM = 3.0
Kevin Garnett: 1996-97, Age = 20, STL = 105, BLK = 163, DBPM = 2.6

And here's of all rookies to do it in the last 35 years:

Nerlens Noel: 2014-15, Age = 20 STL = 133, BLK = 142, DBPM = 4.5
Andrei Kirilenko: 2001-02, Age = 20, STL = 116, BLK = 159, DBPM = 3.0
David Robinson: 1989-90, Age = 24, STL = 138, BLK = 319, DBPM = 3.8

I'm not claiming Noel is the next David Robinson or Kevin Garnett, but you have to admit that's some pretty exclusive company.

BNM

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That's a cool,colorful tidbit you show somewhere in the 1st quarter of a meaningless game between the Sixers and the Nuggets.
What happened with all these blocks? did he swat them all into the crowd? did they lead to a fast break? i find no value in obscure stats like 'blocks'.

How about all the players who haven't made that list? i'm 100% sure you can find at least 20 players in the last 2 decades alone who were way better than Noel will ever be.

The realistic scenario is Noel playing ~67 games a year, recording 10 and 8 while giving 30% more defense than Plumlee.
Are you ok with paying this guy 18mil'/a year in this situation, especially considering his health issues? Yes/No?

I'm fine with trading one of our soft guys for Noel, i just hate the shitty situation he'll put us in.
 
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Ok, i found this vid:


I wish it showed more of him putting a body on people and forcing misses without blocking and i wish the video was not so old, but I'm on board now if Blazers will do their due diligence on his health issues.
Thanks Mr. Bones and Mr. Boobs, now i'll be somewhat excited if we land him :cheers:
 
Blazers Roy said:
Ok, i found this vid:


I wish it showed more of him putting a body on people and forcing misses without blocking and i wish the video was not so old, but I'm on board now if Blazers will do their due diligence on his health issues.
Thanks Mr. Bones and Mr. Boobs, now i'll be somewhat excited if we land him :cheers:
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He played 75 and 67 games his first two seasons. That's not bad. He had minor surgery before the start of the season. I think there's a good chance he ends up healthy.

@Boob-No-More What a name. "Boobs and Bones" lmao.
 
Here's what I'd do:

PHI Gets:
Allen Crabbe
Shabazz Napier
2018 CLE 1st

DAL Gets:
Corey Brewer
Noah Vonleh
2017 HOU 1st (Top 20 Protected)

HOU Gets:
Meyers Leonard

POR Gets:
Nerlens Noel
Wesley Matthews

Houston needs a center with Capela being hurt, so we send them Meyers, who fits their 3-point heavy offense. Dallas sends us Matthews to replace Crabbe, while getting a couple rebuilding assets back.

Lillard / McCollum
McCollum / Matthews
Harkless / Turner
Aminu / Davis
Noel / Plumlee

I like that lineup.
 
Blazers Roy said:
Ok, i found this vid:


I wish it showed more of him putting a body on people and forcing misses without blocking and i wish the video was not so old, but I'm on board now if Blazers will do their due diligence on his health issues.
Thanks Mr. Bones and Mr. Boobs, now i'll be somewhat excited if we land him :cheers:
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Me likey :twothumbs:
 
BonesJones said:
He played 75 and 67 games his first two seasons. That's not bad. He had minor surgery before the start of the season. I think there's a good chance he ends up healthy.

@Boob-No-More What a name. "Boobs and Bones" lmao.
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So he had that surgery and the surgery in college right? anything else he had?
 
Noel was considered one of the best prospects in his draft class despite virtually no offensive skills to speak of coming into the draft (if he hadn't suffered the knee injury in college, he might have been the #1 pick). The reason for that is because he has an instinctive feel for defense that a lot of scouts and executives felt was special. Noel certainly has the potential to be one of the best defensive players of his generation and a perennial Defensive Player of the Year candidate. I'm not saying that that's the median expectation, because that's a lofty standard, but it's not at all ridiculous to think he has that kind of defensive potential.

The jury also remains out on whether he can be a help on offense. Tyson Chandler showed how a player with no shot could be a significant offensive asset and DeAndre Jordan is following that template. Noel has the athleticism to follow that tradition and become a lob finisher off the pick-and-roll which is a potent weapon to have on a team built around shooting.

If Philadelphia is really willing to cut bait on Noel cheaply, you're essentially getting a low-risk/high-reward proposition, which is fantastic.
 
Blazers Roy said:
So he had that surgery and the surgery in college right? anything else he had?
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This recent surgery was a minor, elective procedure. He hadn't even planned on getting it done until the team basically told him to do it as there wasn't enough playing time to go around anyway.

Yes, tore his ACL in college and made a complete recovery.

BNM
 
Blazers Roy said:
That's a cool,colorful tidbit you show somewhere in the 1st quarter of a meaningless game between the Sixers and the Nuggets.
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I have no idea what that even means. ALL the stats I've posted in this, and other threads, cover a sample size of two complete NBA season. I never made any reference to any single games, let alone the first quarter of a game between PHI and DEN. That's pretty specific for something I never even said.

Blazers Roy said:
How about all the players who haven't made that list? i'm 100% sure you can find at least 20 players in the last 2 decades alone who were way better than Noel will ever be.
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So wow, unless he is one of the top 20 players in the last 20 years, he's not worth a one-dimensional, overpaid PER = 10 player like Allen Crabbe? Seriously?

The guy addresses a HUGE need for this team. He's 22. We'd get to audition him for half a season and then hold his Bird rights if we want to resign him. Worst case, we lose Allen Crabbe and his ridiculous contract. I'd rather pay a 22-year old elite defender that $18 million a year than give it to a guy who can't even create his own shot.

BNM
 
Minstrel said:
Noel was considered one of the best prospects in his draft class despite virtually no offensive skills to speak of coming into the draft (if he hadn't suffered the knee injury in college, he might have been the #1 pick). The reason for that is because he has an instinctive feel for defense that a lot of scouts and executives felt was special. Noel certainly has the potential to be one of the best defensive players of his generation and a perennial Defensive Player of the Year candidate. I'm not saying that that's the median expectation, because that's a lofty standard, but it's not at all ridiculous to think he has that kind of defensive potential.

The jury also remains out on whether he can be a help on offense. Tyson Chandler showed how a player with no shot could be a significant offensive asset and DeAndre Jordan is following that template. Noel has the athleticism to follow that tradition and become a lob finisher off the pick-and-roll which is a potent weapon to have on a team built around shooting.

If Philadelphia is really willing to cut bait on Noel cheaply, you're essentially getting a low-risk/high-reward proposition, which is fantastic.
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1000 likes to you sir!

BNM
 
On 24/7 spurs has the big trade is Okafor for Turner/vonleigh/clev 1st 2018.
 
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