Yeah, that's not so good. He would be forced to score more in the NBA. Maybe if he could develop a post-up game, like Dre?
I didn't like the Andre Miller best case comparison at all, because right now Marshall absolutely can't score in the paint (can't finish, no mid-range game and no post game) and that's the ONLY place Miller can score consistently. He has good height, but short arms for a PG and is also very unathletic. Given those limitations, I'm not sure how effective he could be in the low post. I think his best bet is to work tirelessly on developing that pull-up mid-range jumper that is a dying art in the NBA. Andre Miller has it, and so does Rip Hamilton and Steve Nash (all unathletic guys by NBA standards), but not many others. If Marshall can develop that, it will compensate for his inability to finish at the rim.
That comparison did cross my mind, but I didn't want to say it in part because I'm trying to defend Marshall here, but also because Sergio is a much flashier dribbler. I also get the impression that Marshall is less happy-go-lucky, more competitive.
That echos my comments about Marshall being a harder worker and student of the game. Sergio was like a kid when he was here. He just liked to hang out with his buds and have fun. He never seemed to be willing to put in any work to improve his (many) weaknesses. I used to watch him during shoot arounds and he was always goofing off and not really working on his actual game.
(That said: as I've mentioned in another thread, Sergio has finally developed a three point shot, and is doing well for Real Madrid right now.)
It's too bad it took a failed NBA career for him to finally wake up and improve one of his weaknesses. In the NBA, defenses quickly learned that Sergio couldn't shoot. That allowed them to play off of him and defend the passing lanes - taking away the ONE thing he did well. And, that spelled the end of his NBA career. When the Blazers traded him to Sacramento, I successfully predicted he'd be out of the NBA when his rookie contract was up. One trick ponies, with multiple glaring weaknesses just don't last in the NBA.
Right now, Marshall is a bit of a one trick pony at the NBA level, but he's very young and seems to have the work ethic to improve. With his incredible court vision and passing ability, all he really needs is to develop ONE consistent way to score to be reasonably successful at the NBA level. If he can develop two (mid-range pull-up jumper AND 3-point shot), he could be a very good NBA point guard. That makes him a bit of a high risk/high reward lottery pick. Which is why he'll probably go near the end of the lottery, maybe even mid-teens. At this point it's too hard to predict how good (or how bad) he'll end up at the NBA level. He could be anything from a marginal back-up to a quality starter. That's a pretty big swing. Taking him at 11 is a reach. At 14 - 16, he'd be worth taking a chance on.
How about "old Jason Kidd"? Big, slow, shoots the three (see the video), not really a scorer.
Due to the amazing court vision, I think the Marshall/Kidd comparisons will always exist. I think more of a young Jason Kidd without the defense. Kidd was a horrible shooter when he came into the league, and remained so few a few years. He was an outstanding defender in his younger days and still plays very smart team defense. Marshall will never have the ability to play lock down 1-on-1 defense the way Kidd did in his younger years. So, he needs to become a smart team defender. Like Kidd, he will also need to improve his shooting. As good as he is in other areas, Marshall's poor athleticism will prevent him from ever becoming the player Kidd is/was. Due to his athletic limitations, he'd be better off patterning his game after Steve Nash. I'm not saying he has Nash like potential, just that they share some of the same basic strengths (court vision and passing) and same limitations (poor athleticism and horrible defense). Nash overcame his weaknesses by becoming one of the best shooters (mid-range, 3-point and FTs) in the entire history of the NBA. It's unrealistic to expect Marshall to develop into the next Steve Nash, but he at least needs to become an above average shooter to be a decent starting NBA PG.
When you've got the scorers that he had at UNC on your team, you shouldn't really be shooting.
True, but at the NBA level if you're a guard that can't shoot you WILL fail. Teams will just sag off you and play the passing lanes and deny penetration. You won't be able to drive and dish and you will effectively be playing 4-on-5 on offense with the ball in the hands of your least dangerous scorer. Guys like Nash, Stockton, Kidd, Payton, etc. all became great players because they improved their shooting at the NBA level. Even if you don't shoot a lot, you have to shoot well enough to keep NBA defenses honest. If you can't, hello NBDL, or if you're lucky, Europe.
BNM
