McCain's Arizona Problem

[Денг Гордон]

Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 10/28-30. Likely voters. MoE 4% (No trend lines)

McCain (R) 48
Obama (D) 47

Early voters (17 percent of sample)

McCain (R) 42
Obama (D) 54

I can't believe we may actually win Arizona. And I have a bonus treat for you guys:

If the 2010 election for U.S. Senate were held today for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Janet Napolitano the Democrat and John McCain the Republican?

McCain (R) 45
Napolitano (D) 53

Janet Napolitano is Arizona's governor, currently serving her second term. Her favorability rating of 67-29 is higher than Palin's, which is 65-35 in a poll we'll be releasing in a few hours. Napolitano's job approval rating of 69-21 similarly beats Palin's 61-37. Palin may be giving the Rick Lowrys of the world starbursts, but Napolitano is wowing them with competent governance, and it looks like Arizonans wouldn't mind sending her to Washington instead of McCain.

Update: McCain forced to campaign in Arizona on Monday. I bet he wishes he could spend the evening in Pennsylvania, Ohio, or Florida.

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/10/31/11279/222/947/647893

 

[PapaG]

First of all, thank you for posting from the DailyKos. Tells me all I need to know.

Secondly, Obama isn't going to win Arizona.

 

[Денг Гордон]

First of all, thank you for posting from the DailyKos. Tells me all I need to know.

Secondly, Obama isn't going to win Arizona.

It's a Research 2000 poll that I got off of RCP. Obama might not win Arizona, but he also could.

Here's a message I sent to Nate Silver earlier today.

I think your piece on thinking it is dumb to make an ad buy in Arizona (and I've heard he also may visit the state during his Southwest swing) is a little bit off-base. We elect our president in 51 local elections. (well a few more when we break down those CD's in NE and ME)

Imagine election night: (times not necessarily accurate, and in central time).

5 PM: The polls have just closed in Pennsylvania, Virginia, Ohio, North Carolina, Indiana, and Georgia. MSNBC is projecting John McCain the winner in Georgia and Indiana. Ohio is too early to call and Virginia and North Carolina are too close to call. Barack Obama is the projected winner in Pennsylvania.

5:17 PM: Chuck Todd: What you will see in North Carolina is Obama with a 500,000 vote lead right now. These are the returns on early voting, but the exit polls show a strong day for McCain today, and the exit poll indicates that the Reverend Wright Ad had a large effect in this state. As the votes come in, we expect that lead to shrink.

5:48 PM: MSNBC is projecting John McCain the victor of Ohio's 20 electoral votes.

6:00 PM: The polls have closed in Florida, Iowa, and Missouri. MSNBC projects Barack Obama the winner of Iowa. MSNBC projects John McCain the winner in Missouri. Florida is too close to call. David Shuster: As they say, as Missouri goes, the nation goes. Will that hold true once again? It looks like we will be in for another late night in Florida.

6:25 PM: Chuck Todd: We are now moving Virginia into the too early to call column. John McCain has a slight lead right now in Virginia.

6:45 PM: MSNBC projects John McCain the winner of Virginia.

6:54 PM: MSNBC Projects John McCain the winner of Florida. David Shuster: It looks like it won't be a long night in Florida. It appears that there might have been some type of Bradley Effect going on in the polling.

7:00 PM: The polls have just closed in Montana and the Dakotas. MSNBC projects John McCain the winner in Montana...MSNBC projects John McCain the winner in North Dakota...MSNBC projects John McCain the winner in South Dakota.

7:45 PM: Chuck Todd: John McCain has overtaken Barack Obama in voting in North Carolina. 87% of precincts are reporting. MSNBC is moving North Carolina into the too early to call category.

8:00 PM: The polls have closed in Colorado and New Mexico. MSNBC projects Barack Obama the winner in New Mexico. Colorado is too early to call.

8:25 PM: We have some big news here. MSNBC is projecting John McCain the winner of North Carolina.

8:45 PM: MSNBC is projecting John McCain the winner in Colorado.

8:50 PM: Nate Silver of HD-Net: Barack Obama's best case scenario is winning Nevada now, and bringing this thing into Congress, where he should win the election. There is no way Arizona goes Obama if Colorado or Nevada didn't.

9:00 PM: The polls are closed in Nevada and Arizona. MSNBC projects John McCain the winner of Nevada. Arizona is too early to call. Chuck Todd: It does not look good for Barack Obama right now. I just can't see him winning the presidency.

Fox News: We have some big news here. Fox News projects John McCain the winner of Nevada. Also, Fox News projects John McCain the winner of Arizona's 10 EV's, thus John McCain is the new president of the United States.

10:15 PM: Chuck Todd: The votes have began coming in in Arizona, and Barack Obama has a slight lead over John McCain, we are moving this state into the too early to call category.

10:55 PM: Chuck Todd: Barack Obama holds a 358 vote lead over John McCain with 87% of the precincts reporting.

11:20 PM: Nate Silver of HD-Net: Who thought that Obama could win this election because of Arizona, John McCain's home state. I surely didn't!

11:40 PM: Fox News: Early tonight we called Arizona and thus the presidency for John McCain. We would like to retract that report, Arizona is in fact too close to call.

1:35 AM: Chuck Todd: Barack Obama's lead in Arizona is up to 3,485 with 98% of precincts reporting. MSNBC projects Barack Obama the winner of Arizona, and thus the president of the United States.

1:50 AM: Chris Matthews: It goes back to something I wrote in my book. All politics is local!

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Don't make the mistake Nate of not considering it as a set of 51 separate, local elections. Just imagine how differently things would have been if George Bush didn't contest Tennessee.