Notice Melo or Ariza?

[CupWizier]

Could come down to choosing one or the other. Keeping Ariza will cost $12.8 mil and Melo would need a new contract. Do we pay Ariza 12.8 and then let him walk or try and trade him at the deadline or do we try and sign Melo to a reasonable contract for 3 years with a possible team option? Of course a lot will depend on where Hood is on his rehabbing, but with the emergence of Trent who can play the 3 makes Ariza a bit more expendable. I'm kind of leaning with a Melo, Trent and even Hezonja rotation at small forward. Make the focus for a back up PG and starting PF. Melo can also play some PF in certain situations. If we don't re=sign Whiteside then Collins can slip over and be a c/pf backup.

Thoughts?

 

[PtldPlatypus]

Could come down to choosing one or the other. Keeping Ariza will cost $12.8 mil and Melo would need a new contract. Do we pay Ariza 12.8 and then let him walk or try and trade him at the deadline or do we try and sign Melo to a reasonable contract for 3 years with a possible team option? Of course a lot will depend on where Hood is on his rehabbing, but with the emergence of Trent who can play the 3 makes Ariza a bit more expendable. I'm kind of leaning with a Melo, Trent and even Hezonja rotation at small forward. Make the focus for a back up PG and starting PF. Melo can also play some PF in certain situations. If we don't re=sign Whiteside then Collins can slip over and be a c/pf backup.

Thoughts?

I assume you're suggesting that we would need to free up cap space to keep Melo, which is what would necessitate waiving Ariza.

My thought is that if keeping Melo is worth waiving Ariza, then he would also be worth re-signing by using our mid-level exception, in which case waiving Ariza would be unnecessary.

 

[Rastapopoulos]

How bout neither? Melo's like Enes Kanter: a flawed guy who's playing great in a playoff run, but you can do better. The only reason to keep Ariza (and have him take minutes that should be used developing Nas) is because he has a useful contract for a trade.

 

[Sheldon Shape]

Nobody is keeping Ariza for that price. We should prioritize keeping Melo for sure.

 

[riverman]

How bout neither? Melo's like Enes Kanter: a flawed guy who's playing great in a playoff run, but you can do better. The only reason to keep Ariza (and have him take minutes that should be used developing Nas) is because he has a useful contract for a trade.

The best way to develop Nas is to keep Ariza and make Nas beat him for the rotation spot....Ariza is somebody that helps you win now....Nas is a couple years away...if Nas did what Trent did, he could move up the bench quicker...no rush with the young guys while we're winning in my view. I want to see Hood and Melo at the SF if Ariza is gone...what I don't want is 12 different starting lineups next season...like to have a core of rotation players that have chemistry on the court

 

[blazerkor]

Could come down to choosing one or the other. Keeping Ariza will cost $12.8 mil and Melo would need a new contract. Do we pay Ariza 12.8 and then let him walk or try and trade him at the deadline or do we try and sign Melo to a reasonable contract for 3 years with a possible team option? Of course a lot will depend on where Hood is on his rehabbing, but with the emergence of Trent who can play the 3 makes Ariza a bit more expendable. I'm kind of leaning with a Melo, Trent and even Hezonja rotation at small forward. Make the focus for a back up PG and starting PF. Melo can also play some PF in certain situations. If we don't re=sign Whiteside then Collins can slip over and be a c/pf backup.

Thoughts?

I'm not discussing this as personnel movement, just cap stuff. If you dropped Ariza's near 11 mil but included min cap holds for every open roster spot on the team with a minimum salary cap hold and added our draft pick, while renouncing all of our free agents rights, we'd still be at 106 mil. If the cap stays the same then I guess we could in theory pick up both a free agent with the final 9 mil in cap space (you sound like you'd hope for Melo) and still have our MLE to add one other piece. The guys under contract would be Dame, CJ, Nurk, Zach, Rodney, Ant, Nas, Rio and Gary... we'd pick up a FA (Melo), MLE, our first rounder, two min players. Technically we could use the MLE to pick up two guys and that would free up another close to 1 mil for Melo. You'd have to decide if Ariza is better than what we could get with the MLE or not, that's basically the exchange because the MLE is close to equal to the cap space we would have to sign Melo. That's if Melo demands nearly 10 mil, maybe he'd take half of that and we'd have another 5 mil to pick up another piece... who knows. One thing I do know is this post is basically pointless because the owners will tear up the current CBA so we have no idea what the cap, tax or exceptions will look like for next season if there is a next season.

 

[CupWizier]

I assume you're suggesting that we would need to free up cap space to keep Melo, which is what would necessitate waiving Ariza.

My thought is that if keeping Melo is worth waiving Ariza, then he would also be worth re-signing by using our mid-level exception, in which case waiving Ariza would be unnecessary.

No, my intention was merely to get others thoughts on various options.

 

[LayneStaley]

Keep Ariza, you have to have a wing defender and one who can drain 3s isn’t cheap. No way I’m signing Melo for 3 years! Maybe 2 but I’d prefer 1.

 

[Stevenson]

Hood?

 

[LayneStaley]

Hood?

I’d be shocked if Hood was the same player next year. Not just the Achilles, which is tough on most athletes, but the year away from playing. I’m sure he will opt in but I’m not expecting much, I’d take Melo or Ariza over him.

 

[wizenheimer]

I'm not discussing this as personnel movement, just cap stuff. If you dropped Ariza's near 11 mil but included min cap holds for every open roster spot on the team with a minimum salary cap hold and added our draft pick, while renouncing all of our free agents rights, we'd still be at 106 mil. If the cap stays the same then I guess we could in theory pick up both a free agent with the final 9 mil in cap space (you sound like you'd hope for Melo) and still have our MLE to add one other piece. The guys under contract would be Dame, CJ, Nurk, Zach, Rodney, Ant, Nas, Rio and Gary... we'd pick up a FA (Melo), MLE, our first rounder, two min players. Technically we could use the MLE to pick up two guys and that would free up another close to 1 mil for Melo. You'd have to decide if Ariza is better than what we could get with the MLE or not, that's basically the exchange because the MLE is close to equal to the cap space we would have to sign Melo. That's if Melo demands nearly 10 mil, maybe he'd take half of that and we'd have another 5 mil to pick up another piece... who knows. One thing I do know is this post is basically pointless because the owners will tear up the current CBA so we have no idea what the cap, tax or exceptions will look like for next season if there is a next season.

a minor quibble: pretty sure if Portland uses cap-space on Melo, they'd only have the room-MLE to use for other free agents; that's about half of the full MLE, a shade under 4.8M. That's not going to get anybody that's good. Just enough for another role-player

as for Melo, I don't know what his market value will be. I don't think it will be very high. Some of the cap experts can correct me if I'm wrong about this: Melo was signed using a vet minimum. He's played more that 10 seasons so his scale is around 2.56M. I'm wondering if he qualifies for the non-bird exception...? That allows 120% of previous salary. If that's kosher, than Melo could start at a bit over 3.1M. I'm not sure he's worth more than that. He's been great in the bubble, but prior to that he was less than mediocre, and he's another low efficiency ball-stopper with his one-on-one tendencies

something else, and again, the cap experts can correct me: if Blazers do not renounce the rights to Whiteside, they be eligible for tthe full-MLE of about 9.2M. However if they use more than than 5.7M (amount of tax-MLE) they get hard capped at the apron

now, if the Blazers aren't concerned about the apron and being hard-capped, not only could they use the full-MLE, thay could also use the 3.6M BAE. However, that's squeezing contract tight enough they may not be able to re-sign Whiteside AND keep Ariza

 

[PtldPlatypus]

No, my intention was merely to get others thoughts on various options.

Clearly. I guess I was just trying to understand why they'd be an either-or proposition? How exactly does waiving Ariza make it easier to keep Melo?

 

[CupWizier]

Clearly. I guess I was just trying to understand why they'd be an either-or proposition? How exactly does waiving Ariza make it easier to keep Melo?

Never said that. I was just looking at it as an either or. I don't think it's logical to spend money on both is all. You have a different thought, then let's hear it.

 

[blazerkor]

a minor quibble: pretty sure if Portland uses cap-space on Melo, they'd only have the room-MLE to use for other free agents; that's about half of the full MLE, a shade under 4.8M. That's not going to get anybody that's good. Just enough for another role-player

as for Melo, I don't know what his market value will be. I don't think it will be very high. Some of the cap experts can correct me if I'm wrong about this: Melo was signed using a vet minimum. He's played more that 10 seasons so his scale is around 2.56M. I'm wondering if he qualifies for the non-bird exception...? That allows 120% of previous salary. If that's kosher, than Melo could start at a bit over 3.1M. I'm not sure he's worth more than that. He's been great in the bubble, but prior to that he was less than mediocre, and he's another low efficiency ball-stopper with his one-on-one tendencies

something else, and again, the cap experts can correct me: if Blazers do not renounce the rights to Whiteside, they be eligible for tthe full-MLE of about 9.2M. However if they use more than than 5.7M (amount of tax-MLE) they get hard capped at the apron

now, if the Blazers aren't concerned about the apron and being hard-capped, not only could they use the full-MLE, thay could also use the 3.6M BAE. However, that's squeezing contract tight enough they may not be able to re-sign Whiteside AND keep Ariza

You're totally right, it would cut the exception in half. I'm not sure about the hard cap and again I think this is all a moot point because I think the CBA is going to look totally different.

 

[Pinwheel1]

One of our weaknesses is the lack of a long perimeter defender who moves well laterally.
Ariza was known for that coming out of college. (7'2" wing)

Little also has a 7'2" wing. Does he have the lateral movement? I think he might. Regardless I value that type of player over Melo if
I could only have one. If and when Little develops a consistent 3pt shot he will be a 30 minute per game player for us. Until then I would take a chance on one more year of Ariza.

 

[tiredhunter]

There are no bird rights in play for Melo, right? I'm not sure he gets more than the MLE elsewhere, so I'm not sure it is an either or scenario, or that Blazers are in the driver seat of the decision. Minutes are an issue, but if Hood comes back healthy and effective, or Little takes that next step you can start looking at trades. If the Blazers can sign Melo though, I'm all for it. If there is a good backup 4 available at the MLE the calculation changes, but that seems unlikely.

 

[B-Roy]

MLE for Melo is crazy. I would not want Melo back for anything more than the vets minimum, and even then I don't trust Stotts to stop playing Melo when he's not doing well.

 

[damianlillard]

I much rather have Ariza for his defense and 3 point shot. Also don’t forget that he could also play stretch 4, not just SF. And I feel like Melo stunted the growth of our young players. Can you imagine as a 40% 3 point shooter waiting, Trent, on the top for an open 3 while Melo get double team and does his typical low efficiency fade-away? I would be so mad! Melo show no confidence in any player beside Dame. He literally only pass to Dame and sometime CJ. This guy is a doucebag for that purpose. Trent should be getting more shots but he isn’t because of Melo. Gabriel and Little would be so helpful for this team with their energy and defense but they aren’t because of Melo. The only reason why we play in close game in every freaking game is because of Melo. Don’t tell me how he’s so clutch, the dude is supposed to hit wide open 3s no matter what, that to me isn’t that impressive. With that being said I much rather have Ariza for his ability to play with the defense and does the little things

 

[blazerkor]

I much rather have Ariza for his defense and 3 point shot. Also don’t forget that he could also play stretch 4, not just SF. And I feel like Melo stunted the growth of our young players. Can you imagine as a 40% 3 point shooter waiting, Trent, on the top for an open 3 while Melo get double team and does his typical low efficiency fade-away? I would be so mad! Melo show no confidence in any player beside Dame. He literally only pass to Dame and sometime CJ. This guy is a doucebag for that purpose. Trent should be getting more shots but he isn’t because of Melo. Gabriel and Little would be so helpful for this team with their energy and defense but they aren’t because of Melo. The only reason why we play in close game in every freaking game is because of Melo. Don’t tell me how he’s so clutch, the dude is supposed to hit wide open 3s no matter what, that to me isn’t that impressive. With that being said I much rather have Ariza for his ability to play with the defense and does the little things

I disagree with you. Melo has been a good teammate to everyone and has played Melo ball. The reason why you only see him passing to Dame or CJ most of the time is because Melo's mindset is either to score or reset to a facilitator, he's never seen himself as a facilitator... he also gets the ball to Nurk when Nurk is set up at the top of the key to facilitate, for what it's worth. As far as taking time away from Nas and Wenyen, that's not Melo, it's Stotts. You have your point that he is taking shots away from younger guys and regardless of how much time Stotts gives Melo (theoretically those minutes could go to developing players even though that's not Stotts' M.O.) any shot Melo takes is technically a shot another guy could be taking.

 

[illmatic99]

I'm surprised at how good Melo has been. Until yesterday, he was ahead of CJ in terms of impact. I hate the five face-up jabstep jabstep 20 foot jumper possessions we spoonfeed him, but he's been dominant in the post, and a knockdown shooter in clutch time. He gives us an air of respect that is a bit intangible, but weirdly important in meaningful games. I'd do an TP MLE for him for 2-3 yrs.

That said, what Ariza brings us is what we are lacking most on this roster. I'd rather keep both Ariza and Melo, while moving CJ for another tall wing.

 

[riverman]

Dame is clicking with Melo...CJ loves Melo...Melo will be a Blazer as long as we'll have him...that's my take...for Melo money isn't the deciding factor....Chief and Ed Davis played here for 7-8 mill a season...that's what I see Ariza and Melo doing..if anybody is gone next year it'll be Hassan....if he goes I'd consider bringing back Ed Davis as a backup

 

[LayneStaley]

IMO both will be back. HW is only guy I’m pretty positive will be gone.

Dame/Simons
CJ/Trent
Ariza/Hood
Melo/Little
Nurk/Collins

Barring a trade that’s what I see. Hood will be a huge question mark. Another Vet big will need to be added.

 

[wizenheimer]

near as I can tell:

Damian Lillard $31,626,953
CJ McCollum $29,354,152
Jusuf Nurkić $12,000,000
Zach Collins $5,406,255
Anfernee Simons $2,252,040
Nassir Little $2,210,640
Mario Hezonja $1,882,867 (player option - assume he opts in)
Gary Trent $1,663,861
Andrew Nicholson $2,844,429
Anderson Varejão $1,913,345
Rodney Hood $6,003,900 (player option, assumes he opts in)

about 97M with a 115M salary cap; 139M tax line; 145M apron

2020 1st round pick $3,300,000 (estimate)

so, 100M with pick

Trevor Ariza $12,800,000 with only 1.8M guaranteed

so then, about 113M with Ariza and 102M if Ariza is waived

free agents:

Hassan Whiteside ($34,800,00 cap-hold)
Carmelo Anthony ($1,707,576 cap-hold)
Wenyen Gabriel ($1,922,425 cap-hold)

if Blazers do not renounce Melo, Ariza & Whiteside, they are over the apron and can only use the tax-MLE (not 100% positive)

if Portland keeps Ariza and re-signs Whiteside for 10M, they are at 123M leaving 16M in margin to tax line and 21M margin to apron. And sice they are below the apron, they could use the full-MLE of 9.2M. And if my math is right, they'd be at 10 player with the draft pick; 11 players with Ariza and 12 with Whiteside; 13 with Gabriel. So then, what's left is the MLE and Melo. And theoretically the 3.6M BAE (be hard-capped if used)

I Blazers can keep Melo for the non-bird or BAE, they'd be able to get a fairly decent player for the MLE

(and again, the disclaimer I'm not a CBA guru)

 

[Wade Garrett]

Dame believes in Melo.
That's good enough for me.
I honestly think Carmelo is a championship piece.
He aint what he once was, for sure. But he will usually make that baseline turnaround, and seems to have the veteran presence in crunchtime.
Besides, I have always loved Carmelo's game, and never much liked Ariza.

 

[CupWizier]

Dame is clicking with Melo...CJ loves Melo...Melo will be a Blazer as long as we'll have him...that's my take...for Melo money isn't the deciding factor....Chief and Ed Davis played here for 7-8 mill a season...that's what I see Ariza and Melo doing..if anybody is gone next year it'll be Hassan....if he goes I'd consider bringing back Ed Davis as a backup

I would like to see us go after Harry Giles and have him and Collins battle for backup center minutes. He seems like an Olshey type deal.

 

[damianlillard]

I disagree with you. Melo has been a good teammate to everyone and has played Melo ball. The reason why you only see him passing to Dame or CJ most of the time is because Melo's mindset is either to score or reset to a facilitator, he's never seen himself as a facilitator... he also gets the ball to Nurk when Nurk is set up at the top of the key to facilitate, for what it's worth. As far as taking time away from Nas and Wenyen, that's not Melo, it's Stotts. You have your point that he is taking shots away from younger guys and regardless of how much time Stotts gives Melo (theoretically those minutes could go to developing players even though that's not Stotts' M.O.) any shot Melo takes is technically a shot another guy could be taking.

The first half you made a good point. But I gotta ask you this do you rather have Melo take a tough midrange fade-away than having him pass to a open 3 point shooter? Cause what you’re telling me is that you rather have him take that tough midrange shot. And here’s the other thing, we all know that with Dame we will always be a top 10 offense. Our problem has always been our defense, Melo can’t play defense anymore. And lastly, yes he has been a great teammate, been kind to everyone. You can tell me that Stotts is the one that started Melo and given him minutes, but here’s another fact Melo was only gonna come back to the NBA if he became a starter. He only was gonna come back to the bubble if he remain a starter. The coaches couldn’t convince him to take a bench role, a role where he would truly thrive. What make y’all think he wanna come back next year as a backup 4, he’s too prideful to take that

 

[andalusian]

Playoffs will dictate ariza's future. The team goes deep without him - why bother, the team is bounced early - his value is clear.

 

[e_blazer]

I hope Olshey can work a deal with Gabriel. I like what he’s showing in the few minutes he’s gotten.

 

[blazerkor]

The first half you made a good point. But I gotta ask you this do you rather have Melo take a tough midrange fade-away than having him pass to a open 3 point shooter? Cause what you’re telling me is that you rather have him take that tough midrange shot. And here’s the other thing, we all know that with Dame we will always be a top 10 offense. Our problem has always been our defense, Melo can’t play defense anymore. And lastly, yes he has been a great teammate, been kind to everyone. You can tell me that Stotts is the one that started Melo and given him minutes, but here’s another fact Melo was only gonna come back to the NBA if he became a starter. He only was gonna come back to the bubble if he remain a starter. The coaches couldn’t convince him to take a bench role, a role where he would truly thrive. What make y’all think he wanna come back next year as a backup 4, he’s too prideful to take that

I wasn't saying that we keep Melo, maybe we would for the right price and if he were willing to take a different role but I sincerely doubt that happens. I was just saying the criticism of his role on the team was misplaced, that's all. Melo was good for us to have this year and I'm glad we have him going into the playoffs... I'd probably rather have Ariza though if I had to choose between the two.

 

[Hoopguru]

I'm surprised at how good Melo has been. Until yesterday, he was ahead of CJ in terms of impact. I hate the five face-up jabstep jabstep 20 foot jumper possessions we spoonfeed him, but he's been dominant in the post, and a knockdown shooter in clutch time. He gives us an air of respect that is a bit intangible, but weirdly important in meaningful games. I'd do an TP MLE for him for 2-3 yrs.

That said, what Ariza brings us is what we are lacking most on this roster. I'd rather keep both Ariza and Melo, while moving CJ for another tall wing.

Ariza does give us that back court/swing tall defender of which has been a weakness imo. Trent and Ariza would make formidable defenders. Blazers have to get better defensively and soon.