Merged: Crabbe Traded to Brk (1 Viewer)

[Minstrel]

In the end, I'd rather have 2.1 for 4.8 3pt shooting than 3.8 for 10.2 3pt shooting. Those are Crabbes and Gordon's 3pt shooting clips per 36 respectively.

Why would I rather have that? Because I'd trust the offense to outperform the additional 1.7 on 5.4 3pt shooting Gordon adds over Crabbe. That's .94 points per shot.

Basically, with Gordon's more aggressive shooting resulted in a 94 ORTG on the additional shots he takes that Crabbe doesn't.

I'd rather have Crabbe's 2.1 for 4.8, then trust that the offense could outperform a 94ORTG over the other 5 possessions where Gordon would've shot shots that Crabbe wouldn't have. Since the team does usually perform at a higher offensive rate than a 94 ORTG suggests, then mathematically, it suggests that Crabbe's efficiency on limited shots is more valuable than Gordon's lesser efficiency on volume shooting.

I feel like most people won't understand the math, but those that do will realize what I've been talking about this whole time.

What is the team's ORtg when no one has an open shot? By this logic, we'd be at our most efficient with a roster full of Allen Crabbes--each of them take 5 wide-open shots, leading to the greatest offense in NBA history. Except, that's not how it works. Crabbe is taking the easy shots that someone else could have handled and leaving the difficult shot-creation to others. Someone still has to take those tough shots that Crabbe can't take.

 

[riverman]

Can someone (@Boob-No-More ?) find me the percentages on Crabbe's and Gordon's open 3pt shot percentages, as well as their contested 3pt shot percentages? Could go a long way to figuring out how much of Crabbe's efficiency was his lack of volume from only shooting open shots.

Gordon was a productive 6 man...he got more attention from defenders than Crabbe ever did...and Gordon is a WAY better ball handler and finisher...Crabbe after all turned out to be a one trick pony....and I'm not really lobbying for Gordon....I think we can find a younger guy who brings his skillset at a bargain price...that's what I hope Olshey is working on. Having a bona fide 3 and D guy at Crabbe's position will take some of the pressure off Dame and CJ..

 

[ripcityboy]

I guess it's good because we don't have to pay a huge tax.. Should have just let Crabbe go last off season though. At least that corrects this mistake. The only thing that worries me is that people say we aren't going to compete the next few years. I honestly think Dame is going to be frustrated soon.

 

[andalusian]

I guess it's good because we don't have to pay a huge tax.. Should have just let Crabbe go last off season though. At least that corrects this mistake. The only thing that worries me is that people say we aren't going to compete the next few years. I honestly think Dame is going to be frustrated soon.

I am not sure this is right - it was either let him walk for nothing - or give him another year to break out (did not happen) and end up with a TPE.

Professional basketball at the NBA level is hard - no-one can strike 1.000 - but that was a calculated risk and it could still turn out positive given the TPE.

 

[Minstrel]

The TPE and a slight dead money drag for the next few years. The dead money drag isn't a huge deal, but TPEs also don't tend to be a big deal either, due to how inflexible they are to use in trades. If Olshey picked up this TPE to immediately flip in a (good) Carmelo Anthony trade, then matching on Crabbe will have proven to be a good move. If it's not used there, there's a decent chance it ends up not being used, though.

 

[BonesJones]

What is the team's ORtg when no one has an open shot? By this logic, we'd be at our most efficient with a roster full of Allen Crabbes--each of them take 5 wide-open shots, leading to the greatest offense in NBA history. Except, that's not how it works. Crabbe is taking the easy shots that someone else could have handled and leaving the difficult shot-creation to others. Someone still has to take those tough shots that Crabbe can't take.

No, that's not how it works. You figure out what our ORTG is when Crabbe is on the court and another one of our players shoots.

I still figure it's above a 94 ORTG clip.

 

[andalusian]

Even if the TPE does not come to anything - I do not think the entire match was bad - it was a risk, but that's the name of the game in the NBA - as I said, you can not strike 1.000 in the NBA, some things will end up with paying too much money for AC, others will end up with flipping Plums for Nurk and the ability to get a higher pick in the draft.

 

[Minstrel]

No, that's not how it works. You figure out what our ORTG is when Crabbe is on the court and another one of our players shoots.

That wouldn't answer the question. I have no idea how to find out the answer to my question, but it was just there to illustrate that you're comparing the wrong things. What Gordon brings is the ability to score when the scheme or his teammates haven't created a wide open shot for someone--comparing that efficiency to overall team efficiency (that includes all fast break points, all wide open shots, etc) is extremely misleading.

 

[ripcityboy]

I am not sure this is right - it was either let him walk for nothing - or give him another year to break out (did not happen) and end up with a TPE.

Professional basketball at the NBA level is hard - no-one can strike 1.000 - but that was a calculated risk and it could still turn out positive given the TPE.

That was honestly Olshey's end goal, a TPE? Or was it more like. "he gets better or we can get rid of him down the road. If we are looking at coming out ahead with that of so valuable TPE?! Give me a break!

 

[SlyPokerDog]

For an entire season sly and youre on? no chance he does that. lol

But you didn't say for an entire season, lol.

But a 5pt increase in scoring with starters minutes on a junk team? Just has to average that once during the rest of his career? I doubt either one of us will remember this bet 5 or 6 years from now but I'll take it.

I'll bet you $50 that Crabbe averages 15+ pts per game for one season during his career.

 

[Wizard Mentor]

Random Note:
The TPE has no value now, but apparently it sticks around for a year. Next offseason it could be huge for us.

 

[Fez Hammersticks]

IMO this means we're getting Eric Gordon .....or RJ Hunter earned himself a roster spot at a fraction of the price.

 

[riverman]

I honestly think Dame is going to be frustrated soon

I don't....just watch him with a training camp and full season of Nurk fever....

 

[Nikolokolus]

Crabbe waived his trade kicker and walked away from 5.6 million dollars? Damn, he must have reaaaaally wanted out of here . . .

 

[andalusian]

That was honestly Olshey's end goal, a TPE? Or was it more like. "he gets better or we can get rid of him down the road. If we are looking at coming out ahead with that of so valuable TPE?! Give me a break!

I am sure he wanted something better - but AC did not have a break out year - so it is what it is.

Again, would Portland be in a better place if they just let him walk? Maybe - maybe not, depending on the use of the TPE. At the end it mostly comes to some money out of PA's pocket. Since it was rumored that he was the one that was not willing to let an asset just walk away (thanks LMA) - I guess that he did not care that much about that money.

 

[BonesJones]

Gordon was a productive 6 man...he got more attention from defenders than Crabbe ever did...and Gordon is a WAY better ball handler and finisher...Crabbe after all turned out to be a one trick pony....and I'm not really lobbying for Gordon....I think we can find a younger guy who brings his skillset at a bargain price...that's what I hope Olshey is working on. Having a bona fide 3 and D guy at Crabbe's position will take some of the pressure off Dame and CJ..

I hate how Portland fans use an award to argue for a player. It's the same thing as all-star appearances, and we know how dumb it is to measure a player based off of those. I'm not saying you're using it to argue for obtaining Gordon, I've just seen multiple fans do it.

Gordon is a one-trick pony as well, that's why I see it as a lateral move. Not only that, but we'd have to give up Harkless to NYK to get Melo to HOU to get Eric Gordon here, which would be extreme overkill, even with the addition of Ariza (who's worse than Harkless).

I'm hoping we use the TPE to work something out for Courtney Lee. He's essentially Crabbe with good defense and a more favorable contract. The TPE works for him. NYK just signed Hardaway as their starting SG.

 

[Minstrel]

Crabbe waived his trade kicker and walked away from 5.6 million dollars? Damn, he must have reaaaaally wanted out of here . . .

That was my first thought too, but if Brooklyn wasn't going to make the deal with that kicker, then he wasn't going to get that extra cash anyway. It was either be in Portland for his current salary or be in Brooklyn for his current salary. Given that, I think it's pretty rational for him to want to go to a team where he isn't behind two star guards.

 

[illmatic99]

Well we've passed all those deadlines. 545, 4, etc etc

 

[Nikolokolus]

That was my first thought too, but if Brooklyn wasn't going to make the deal with that kicker, then he wasn't going to get that extra cash anyway. It was either be in Portland for his current salary or be in Brooklyn for his current salary. Given that, I think it's pretty rational for him to want to go to a team where he isn't behind two star guards.

I suppose that's true. We're likely dealing with a market of one -- can't imagine there's a lot of other GMs running Olshey's cell battery down with calls about Crabbe.

 

[BonesJones]

Crabbe waived his trade kicker and walked away from 5.6 million dollars? Damn, he must have reaaaaally wanted out of here . . .

I don't think he wanted out of here. I just think he wanted to start and see what he could do in a bigger role.

 

[Nikolokolus]

I don't think he wanted out of here. I just think he wanted to start and see what he could do in a bigger role.

Six of one, half-dozen of another.

 

[riverman]

I hate how Portland fans use an award to argue for a player

We know.....when you dislike a player, you rant at anyone who doesn't....try agreeing to disagree sometimes....

 

[BonesJones]

BKN might be somewhat decent next year. (Not bottom 5 in the league).

Russell / Lin
Crabbe / Kilpatrick
Carroll / Levert
Booker / Acy
Mozgov / Allen

 

[Minstrel]

We know.....when you dislike a player, you rant at anyone who doesn't....try agreeing to disagree sometimes

riverman, I love you like a brother, but you're having something I like to call a basketball panic attack post.

 

[ripcityboy]

I don't....just watch him with a training camp and full season of Nurk fever....

He wants a championship. He even said he wants what other players like Kyrie have. However I think he will give us every opportunity to improve over the next couple of years. But we better do better than 8th seed because that's not good enough.

 

[chzbrgr]

But you didn't say for an entire season, lol.

But a 5pt increase in scoring with starters minutes on a junk team? Just has to average that once during the rest of his career? I doubt either one of us will remember this bet 5 or 6 years from now but I'll take it.

I'll bet you $50 that Crabbe averages 15+ pts per game for one season during his career.

Thats what I meant tho lol. But you're on anyways, I dont know that it will take 5-6 years for me to win, however.

 

[riverman]

basketball panic attack post.

It's my new go to move......I actually think Gordon is a better player than Crabbe....yet could care less if we sign Gordon....hence...my panic!!!!!!!!

 

[Pinwheel1]

That was honestly Olshey's end goal, a TPE? Or was it more like. "he gets better or we can get rid of him down the road. If we are looking at coming out ahead with that of so valuable TPE?! Give me a break!

Did you read the whole thread? I think there are some valid alternative arguments on what he might have been hoping for.

People all year argued that we will never get rid of Crabbe without throwing in first round draft pics, and now the bitching shifts to "what, all we got was a TPE?"

 

[BonesJones]

We know.....when you dislike a player, you rant at anyone who doesn't....try agreeing to disagree sometimes

You're being contentious.

I debate my opinion on players with those who have differing opinions. Isn't that the point of a forum, especially one based on sports? To discuss thoughts on players, the team, and league itself?

Stop hyperbolizing everything I do on here... I haven't been ranting at all today.

 

[SlyPokerDog]

Thats what I meant tho lol. But you're on anyways, I dont know that it will take 5-6 years for me to win, however.

The bet is on until either he averages 15+ points for one season or until he retires. I'm guessing he has 5-6 more years left in him.

But I think I'll win before then.