Merged: Starting Over / So what happens the rest of this season....?

[Minstrel]

Re: So what happens the rest of this season....?

So...what do we do?

First thing is to find out exactly how serious Roy's injury is. I wouldn't assume he'll be a superstar going forward, but how much will he fall off? Will he be a borderline star, like Aldridge is? A good player like, say, Batum last year? A reserve-level player? Finished, like Darius Miles? Where he ends up dictates what he can contribute to the team or whether the team can move him (perhaps taking back some salary).

Batum and Aldridge are solid pieces. Andre Miller, Joel Przybilla and Greg Oden are all contracts that another team might value as a way to cut salary, allowing the Blazers to add a player (Andre Iguodala, for example, but not necessarily him). Some good drafting will be necessary.

It's extremely hard for me to say what should be done, since I can't actually talk to other GMs and get a sense for what is possible, nor do I have the drafting resources or acumen to expect to make a major strike there. I do think that unless you're in the nuclear waste situation the Knicks were in a couple of years ago, you're better off building from where you are, rather than voluntarily getting worse first. It's super-rare in the NBA for a team to go from terrible to good, by virtue of getting a great draft pick. Teams generally move up from one tier to the next.

The Blazers, as currently constituted, are probably in the "decent" tier...a team that could contend for a playoff spot but not much more. If they blow it up and aim for "awful"...they'll first have to build to "decent" before they can go to good or great. So I just think the team would be adding years to their wait in becoming a contender, not shortening the wait.

 

[KingSpeed]

Re: So what happens the rest of this season....?

Name the last NBA champion that had two of it's cornerstone players with health as shaky as Roy and Oden?

And for what it's worth I'm not an advocate of only building through the draft, I'm very much in favor of trying to acquire as many draft picks as possible on the hope of nabbing at least one or two elite players .

Which elite players? What was the last team to win a top 3 draft pick and win championships with that player? Seriously. Who? It didn't work for us! In recent memory, it was Detroit with Darko Milicic but he's not an elite player. Before that, it's Duncan, I think. Who am I missing? That's 2 players in the last I don't know how many drafts. Most championships are won through trades and free agency.

 

[Nikolokolus]

Re: So what happens the rest of this season....?

Just one caveat. This is NOT the season to tank for a draft pick. It's reportedly shaping up to be a very poor draft for high quality underclassmen, similar to the 2006 draft, this is mostly because of the threatened lockout. If we suck balls this year and even got into the top ten of the lottery, we're likely to end up with an overpaid high pick.

 

[illmatic99]

Re: So what happens the rest of this season....?

Most championships are won through trades and free agency.

Yes, that's what a lot of us in this thread believe. But most of us also understand that liquid assets such as high draft picks and expiring contracts are worth more than the assets we have now.

 

[B-Roy]

Re: So what happens the rest of this season....?

I wish we kept Bayless.

 

[LittleAlex]

Re: So what happens the rest of this season....?

Overachieving to make the playoffs and get bounced in the first round, is possibly the worst situation to be in. No prospects of a title in the future, but not yet bad enough to suck horribly.

AKA... a treadmill team. I don't want us to be the Indiana Pacers for the next 5 years.

Did they even make the playoffs in the last five years?

The worst position to be in is the team with the best record in the lottery.
Making the playoffs is much, much better then that.

 

[Nikolokolus]

Re: So what happens the rest of this season....?

Which elite players? What was the last team to win a top 3 draft pick and win championships with that player? Seriously. Who? In recent memory, it was Detroit with Darko Milicic but he's not an elite player. Before that, it's Duncan, I think. Who am I missing. That's 2 players in the last I don't know how many drafts. Most championships are won through trades and free agency.

If high level picks can be acquired and leveraged in trades for really good players I'm all for that too. My only point is that just hanging on with the group we have and hoping for the best is going to be subject to the law of diminishing returns. A change of direction is needed ... whatever that may be.

 

[Minstrel]

Re: So what happens the rest of this season....?

Boston.

They clearly tanked in 07. Failed to get GO/KD, so they traded away their pick from that year, and a whole bunch of young guys they had picked earlier, and built a championship core.

The Celtics are not a good example of the "burn it down and rebuild with lottery picks and cap space" concept, IMO. They made trades (of former lottery talent) to acquire Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen, and added him to their best player, whom they held onto. Plus, they made a massively good strike in Rajon Rondo deep in the draft.

They are an example of a team that strove to improve from where they were and did so with amazing speed. Even if you feel they attempted to tank for Oden prior to that...that plan failed. That is not what got them their core.

 

[Minstrel]

Re: So what happens the rest of this season....?

If high level picks can be acquired and leveraged in trades for really good players I'm all for that too. My only point is that just hanging on with the group we have and hoping for the best is going to be subject to the law of diminishing returns. A change of direction is needed ... whatever that may be.

I don't think anyone is arguing for just sticking with Roy/Oden/Aldridge/Batum and seeing what happens. The question is, do we start from what we have and try to improve from here, or do we burn it down to the foundations and then try to improve from there.

At least, that's how I'm seeing the debate.

 

[KingSpeed]

Re: So what happens the rest of this season....?

Just one caveat. This is NOT the season to tank for a draft pick. It's reportedly shaping up to be a very poor draft for high quality underclassmen, similar to the 2006 draft, this is mostly because of the threatened lockout. If we suck balls this year and even got into the top ten of the lottery, we're likely to end up with an overpaid high pick.

ummm EXACTLY. If you're tanking, exactly what player are you tanking for?

 

[craigehlo]

Re: So what happens the rest of this season....?

My Blazer 3-point plan:

1) Trade Andre for younger talent. I love Andre, but he's no longer in any sort of window the Blazers have for contention.

2) Tank. We need build through the draft. It's foolish for people to talk about the strength of this draft when the NCAA season just started.

3) Fire Nate.

 

[KingSpeed]

Re: So what happens the rest of this season....?

My Blazer 3-point plan:

1) Trade Andre for younger talent. I love Andre, but he's no longer in any sort of window the Blazers have for contention.

2) Tank. We need build through the draft. It's foolish for people to talk about the strength of this draft when the NCAA season just started.

3) Fire Nate.

We're too talented to tank. This team will win games.

 

[Nikolokolus]

Re: So what happens the rest of this season....?

I don't think anyone is arguing for just sticking with Roy/Oden/Aldridge/Batum and seeing what happens. The question is, do we start from what we have and try to improve from here, or do we burn it down to the foundations and then try to improve from there.

At least, that's how I'm seeing the debate.

If Burning it down means trading all of our expirings by the deadline (Miller, Joel, Greg) in exchange for a potential lottery picks and some longer contracts (Iggy and Brand seem like prime targets) and trying to stay competitive and focusing on young guys like Batum, Johnson, etc. and hoping that Roy can give you something for the next few years (assuming he doesn't need a medical retirement at some point) then I think that's a sensible approach.

I just think we're beyond the "small tweaks" stage of roster building. I'm curious to see if Cho can do anything with this sub optimal situation.

 

[Nikolokolus]

Re: So what happens the rest of this season....?

ummm EXACTLY. If you're tanking, exactly what player are you tanking for?

Maybe Enes Kanter or Harrison Barnes, but I don't think there are any players in this year's draft that experts have tabbed as "guarantees" (like Wall, Lebron, Griffin, Durant, etc.)

 

[EL PRESIDENTE]

Re: So what happens the rest of this season....?

Tanking is retarded.

This season is in the shit. Rest Roy. Trade Pryzbilla, Miller and Camby for youthful roleplayers. Miller and Camby will be too old when Oden is back (hopefully) and there is absolutely no window. With the roster we have, we can't do any trades or sign any players....we are in the long run with Roy and LMA's contract so we have to build around that. The thing is we have no flexibility salarywise, don't have any big expiring contracts that will be useful. We have to go to war with what we have.

Solid bench guys at positions we need...address the PG situation in a year or when one becomes available.

The plan of contention now is to see if Wesley Matthews can be a starting SG for us long term and Rudy backing him up. Roy will have to have severely limited minutes and will have to be more of a facilitator type. We have to plan around that.

 

[craigehlo]

Re: So what happens the rest of this season....?

If Burning it down means trading all of our expirings by the deadline (Miller, Joel, Greg) in exchange for a potential lottery picks and some longer contracts (Iggy and Brand seem like prime targets) and trying to stay competitive and focusing on young guys like Batum, Johnson, etc. and hoping that Roy can give you something for the next few years (assuming he doesn't need a medical retirement at some point) then I think that's a sensible approach.

I'm with the Iggy/Brand deal and the search for more draft picks.

 

[barfo]

Re: So what happens the rest of this season....?

If Burning it down means trading all of our expirings by the deadline (Miller, Joel, Greg) in exchange for a potential lottery picks and some longer contracts (Iggy and Brand seem like prime targets) and trying to stay competitive and focusing on young guys like Batum, Johnson, etc. and hoping that Roy can give you something for the next few years (assuming he doesn't need a medical retirement at some point) then I think that's a sensible approach.

I just think we're beyond the "small tweaks" stage of roster building. I'm curious to see if Cho can do anything with this sub optimal situation.

Usually burning it down means trading your long-term contracts for expirings, not the other way around.

barfo

 

[EL PRESIDENTE]

Re: So what happens the rest of this season....?

Iggy and Brand won't do shit. It'll be an improvement in 3-4 games max, certainly won't put us over the edge. the only thing that works tradewise is to roll the dice and get Carmello Anthony, we trade Batum.

 

[Minstrel]

Re: So what happens the rest of this season....?

the only thing that works tradewise is to roll the dice and get Carmello Anthony, we trade Batum.

That really doesn't work, since Anthony is in the final year of his deal and is as close to a lock not to re-sign in Portland as exists.

 

[KingSpeed]

Re: So what happens the rest of this season....?

The plan of contention now is to see if Wesley Matthews can be a starting SG for us long term and Rudy backing him up. .

Matthews was the starting SG on a team that made it to the second round in his ROOKIE year. I think we'll be in great shape with Wesley.

 

[EL PRESIDENTE]

Re: So what happens the rest of this season....?

That really doesn't work, since Anthony is in the final year of his deal and is as close to a lock not to re-sign in Portland as exists.

If we had him, can't we throw more money at him than anyone else? We'd have to have an inkling he'd want to be in Portland though, which you're right, isn't likely.

The thing is the only thing that will get portland to the top is to get superstars, not mid-level guys like Iggy and Brand. Those won't do jack shit.

 

[EL PRESIDENTE]

Re: So what happens the rest of this season....?

Matthews was the starting SG on a team that made it to the second round in his ROOKIE year. I think we'll be in great shape with Wesley.

Yes. The thing is that long term, our PG situation isn't as good as Utah's was, nor was the coaching system. That rookie year could have been a fluke.

 

[barfo]

Re: So what happens the rest of this season....?

Yes. The thing is that long term, our PG situation isn't as good as Utah's was, nor was the coaching system. That rookie year could have been a fluke.

But then again, it might not have been. And really, what more do we have to lose by finding out?

barfo

 

[EL PRESIDENTE]

Re: So what happens the rest of this season....?

But then again, it might not have been. And really, what more do we have to lose by finding out?

barfo

That's what I proposed doing.

 

[Nhawz]

Re: Starting Over

Being optimistic, i know. I think that Oden, after all said and done still might be a serviceable big man in this league. Im not giving up on him, just because i would never want to see him play for another team and be productive. Hes our mistake and we're in it for the long haul. I feel really bad for the guy and come free agent time i dont think anybody is going to throw a lot of money at him anyway. So we will be able to re sign him for cheap. Brandon is Joe Johnson after his surgery even without his explosiveness. Potential can no longer describe batum. He needs to prove NOW that he can be a star in this league and get the killer instinct I feel he lacks. This season will define him.

 

[barfo]

Re: So what happens the rest of this season....?

That's what I proposed doing.

And that's what I agreed with you about.

barfo

 

[EL PRESIDENTE]

Re: So what happens the rest of this season....?

Thank you.

 

[Minstrel]

Re: So what happens the rest of this season....?

If we had him, can't we throw more money at him than anyone else? We'd have to have an inkling he'd want to be in Portland though, which you're right, isn't likely.

Portland could offer him the most, but not by a massive amount. He could probably recoup the difference by commercial opportunities in a large market (local commercials, I mean, not nationals, which he'd get anywhere). I don't think the difference in annual raises and one extra year would keep him in Portland.

The thing is the only thing that will get portland to the top is to get superstars, not mid-level guys like Iggy and Brand. Those won't do jack shit.

If Portland dealt for Iguodala and Brand, Brand is a non-factor from Portland's perspective. He'd just be the cost of doing business. While Iguodala is certainly not a superstar, he'd be one more very good player to add to the team while they look for a superstar (probably have to strike it lucky in the draft). Acquiring Iguodala for expiring deals wouldn't limit Portland attempts to acquire a superstar, because those expirings won't fetch a superstar and they represent money that can't be used once the contracts expire.

 

[EL PRESIDENTE]

Re: So what happens the rest of this season....?

Iggy is at one of the few positions we're pretty good with, with Wes Matthews, Rudy and Batum. Roy too, maybe. it'll really fuck up rotations and egos.

 

[Minstrel]

Re: So what happens the rest of this season....?

Iggy is at one of the few positions we're pretty good with, with Wes Matthews, Rudy and Batum. Roy too, maybe. it'll really fuck up rotations and egos.

I don't view Matthews or Rudy to be significant enough to worry about in terms of roles. Matthews is probably a good to great reserve and Rudy can be an okay reserve.

Roy isn't a factor to me while his status is completely undetermined. For now, Iguodala would be the 2, Batum the 3 and Matthews/Rudy get backup minutes. If Roy comes back at a level above reserve level, Roy, Iguodala and Batum can all get 30+ minutes rotating through all the 2/3 minutes. Roy may not even be able to handle 30+ minutes, no matter what level he returns at.