Merged: The Draft Thread For Stuff About The Draft Including Thoughts About The Draft

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TBpup said:
@tester551 .... I'm waiting on D69 and his Draft knowledge as well.

In the Crabbe trade, we get Lee and then he gets combined with Napier for Gay. Once player is traded for, he can only be moved within a certain time period and only in a one-for-one deal as far as I understand. Perhaps someone else could clarify that better.

I like KOQ as well for this team.
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Where is D69? RealGM?

Didn't he have some inside sources? His draft picks always panned out.
 
yuyuza1 said:
Where is D69? RealGM?

Didn't he have some inside sources? His draft picks always panned out.
Click to expand...

He was at RealGM and then ran/Modded a site that is no longer in existence. Mostly now he does his own research and we have a ridiculously long text thread going between 6-7 of us long-timers who have known each other for years. We chat once a week about trades/drafts scenarios and players and he and a few others and I usually get together for a small Draft Party with our own info, Draft Board and the volume turned up to where you can actually hear what is going on. At BWW or whatever venue the Blazers hold the Draft, there is often so much noise you can't hear what the national Draft experts are saying.

I wish I could find the piece I did that went over all of his picks since about 2003 (I think) and how they did versus what the Blazers did. All of these were made before hand and his accuracy has been uncanny. Really only once (the Martell Webster draft) did he have a swing and miss selection. That is an inanely high hit rate.
 
My take is when you have a heavy top loaded Roster Salary in your top 6 rookies become very valuable for they contract value. Of course if you are a team like the Warriors and plucking proven vets for the same $$ that's better, but we aren't there yet.

15: Anunoby (Love guys who want to throw it down, screams Draymond Green mold to me)
20: Hartenstein (Raw but has an attitude similar to Nurks, drive and grit were this teams weakness imo)
26: Adebayo (Project big but has the body to work with)
 
I'm gonna come at this topic from a slightly different angle, just for the sake of discussion... There's a couple things that I haven't seen anyone account for between now and the draft:
  • First: the guys that we're all talking about are being based on their perceived value (by a bunch of websites, nonetheless) 2 months prior to the actual draft. Between now and then, the culmination of the playoffs, the combine, workouts, injuries (both to prospects and to current pros), and failed tests (both of the drug and common sense varieties) will all occur. Now, obviously we can't predict who will get hurt or get arrested, but we CAN make a few projections on the first two points -- current NBA play from playoff teams and rising/falling stocks as rookie workouts happen.

  • Second: while I love mock drafts as much as the next guy, at this point, they're better for overall talent evaluation than team fit. In looking at Draftexpress and NBAdraft.net's mocks, there's a COMBINED 4 big men being drafted in their top 10s. That's 4 out of 20 picks, and Lauri Markkanen accounts for 2 of those 4, with Zach Collins and Jarrett Allen both appearing once (both at 10). While I get that the PGs and wings in this draft are the top talent, I have a VERY hard time believing that the first 9 picks will actually shape out as small guys and one stretch PF. For better or worse, there WILL be a couple bigs in the lottery, and the current mocks aren't really accounting for that.
Taking all of that into consideration, here are my thoughts...

Our guys: I think Crabbe, ET, and Ezeli (yup) will all be moved for decent-good value.
  • Crabbe: teams will always need guys who can knock down open jumpshots. OKC strikes me as low-hanging fruit as a team that would be interested in him. Fortunately his contract will look more and more palatable as free agent frenzies continue this offseason. I'll venture to guess we can either package him with a pick to move up (my preference) or get a younger piece and 2nd round or future 1st for him.

  • ET: My immediate thought for ET is Boston. Multiple Celtics have mentioned that they miss his presence as a glue guy, and I think with that roster setup, his versatility plays really well with a lot of their players. Helps that they have young players, a bevvy of picks and a ton of cap space as well. Shot in the dark, but I'd say we can get Zizic or Yabusele (Terry Rozier would be another guy I wouldn't mind) and a future pick, maybe taking back a less-brutal contract back in the works.

  • Ezeli: surprised no one has said this yet. The only reason Neil mentioned him in his press conference yesterday was to shop him, or rather, his contract. No clue who it will be, but I can all but guarantee Ezeli gets dealt for some sort of asset, be it a Euro or future or 2nd rd pick. To operate, Neil needs assets, much like we did with Varejao last year, some team will want to use Ezeli's cap # to get them closer to the salary floor and save their owner $6.5Mil.

  • Meyers: seems like the team is resigned to the fact that we have no choice but to hold onto Meyers for now. He may have a modicum of trade value left (there's only so many 7-footers on this earth), but its probably not selling him at arguably his lowest possible value. With an offseason to get healthy, he may be able to rebound next year and raise his value enough to eventually be tradable.

  • Mo: I wouldn't hate to see him moved, honestly. I fear that he's too passive to be a real difference maker for us. Given what we got him for, we could flip him for a nice profit, BUT, I don't see Neil doing that unless there were a no-brainer on the table.
Draft: simple philosophy -- improve the roster. I can see what Neil was trying to do with last offseason, but unfortunately things didn't work out in reality, like they could have on paper.
  • I'll guess that we package Crabbe and 15 to move up. I can see it making sense for Minnesota (6), NYK (7), SAC (8,10) to all move back and add a young shooter. SOMEONE out of: Fultz, Ball, Jackson, Tatum, Monk or Collins will fall. In Neil's perfect scenario, he's able to get high enough to get Josh Jackson.

  • I can also see us packaging 20, 26 and some of the other fodder mentioned above to get back into the teens. I think you're looking for 2 difference makers in this draft, so anybody from an Anunoby, Ferguson, Allen, Anigbogu, etc. could be in play.

  • Last guess: I'll guess we likely have a piece or two from all of the above to take a flyer on a young big (Motley, Jeanne, Bryant, whoever).

I certainly don't think ALL of the above will happen, but I'll say that this is probably close to what Neil & co. are looking at. You've got a great young core in Dame, CJ and Nurk, solid bench pieces in Mo, Al, Noah and Bazz, and will hopefully bring back at least piece or two in a deal or two that you're pretty much forced to make. We're certainly not light-years away, but we're not there yet either...
 
Schilly said:
My take is when you have a heavy top loaded Roster Salary in your top 6 rookies become very valuable for they contract value. Of course if you are a team like the Warriors and plucking proven vets for the same $$ that's better, but we aren't there yet.
Click to expand...

No question, as vets continue to take more and more of that overall pie, rookie contracts are only going to get more valuable.

I think the reality of our situation is that we're still, at least 2 years away, so might as well accumulate assets to build around CJ/Dame/Nurk.
 
glazeduck said:
  • Ezeli: surprised no one has said this yet. The only reason Neil mentioned him in his press conference yesterday was to shop him, or rather, his contract. No clue who it will be, but I can all but guarantee Ezeli gets dealt for some sort of asset, be it a Euro or future or 2nd rd pick. To operate, Neil needs assets, much like we did with Varejao last year, some team will want to use Ezeli's cap # to get them closer to the salary floor and save their owner $6.5Mil.
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Ezeli has no value to anyone. He's not going to get traded.
It's already too late for him to effect the salary floor/tax calculations on the 2016-17 season.

At this point, he represents $1M of dead money for the 17-18 season. The only teams that would give up any asset are looking to dump WORSE contracts. Portland already has 3 bad contracts that we need to dump. We aren't going to take on more just to get an "asset" out of Ezeli.
 
tester551 said:
I'd really like to hear D69 chime in on this thread...

Regardless, here is my thoughts right now would be:
* Cut Ezeli & Quarterman
* Trade #26 + Meyers to Nets for Spencer Dinwiddie (They take a chance on Meyers with an extra pick - Dinwiddie is a big PG)
* Trade Crabbe to 76ers for #36 + #39 (they get the shooter they need at the 2)
* Trade Turner + 2018 1st to Knicks for Courtney Lee + Kyle O'Quinn (Turner is great for the triangle, and provides some draft pick incentives - KOQ is a perfect backup big)
* Trade Lee + Napier to Kings for Rudy Gay (I don't know why for Kings - Gay is a great backup SF for Portland)

Draft:
#15 - Terrance Ferguson (SG) - I think he has the best chance to become a star out of the mid-round players. (I also like OG & Mitchell)
#20 - Caleb Swanigan (PF) - Under-rated. Knock is conditioning and D. Deficiencies on D are overstated, and conditioning is improving. Kid has DRIVE. Excellent passer & Rebounder for PF.
#36 - Monte Morris (PG) or George DePaula (PG) or Edmund Sumner (PG) - We need a good pack-up PG
#39 - Alpha Kaba or Taco Fall (C) - Best value for a project C.

Roster (guaranteed contracts should be about $115M and $97M in 18/19):
PG: Dame, Dinwiddie, Morris
SG: CJ, Pat, Ferguson
SF: Hark, Gay, Layman
PF: Noah, Aminu, Swanigan
C: Nurk, KOQ, Davis
D-League Flex contract: Kaba
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I liked this post for two reasons: Kyle O'Quinn and Caleb Swanigan. I think O'Quinn is the perfect rim protecting, elite rebounding back up big man this team needs. He would be perfect backing up both the center and PF positions. He can both play beside Nurk and back him up.

Not sure is SAC would do the trade you suggested. In which case we just keep Lee as a cheaper Crabbe replacement. Lee is older and maybe slightly overpaid, but overall he's a better player than Crabbe and O'Quinn is underpaid. We'd be getting a Crabbe replacement and a solid back up 5/4 for $2.5 million a year less than we are paying Crabbe.

And, if we keep the CLE pick and pass on Swanigan at 26 I'll be pissed. He reminds me so much of Paul Millsap, who we passed on three times at 30th (Freeland), 31st (James White) and 45th (Alexander Johnson who we traded to IND) before UTA picked Millsap with the 47th pick. None of those guys lasted more than 3 seasons in the NBA and Millsap is still an all star.

I think GMs fall too much in love with the predraft combine measurements. It causes them to bypass Millsap who is considered undersized for his position and unathletic because he can't jump out of the gym. Same thing with Swanigan. His measurements and vertical leap won't turn any heads (well, maybe turn them away), but like Millsap, the guy is a flat out baller. Thomas Robinson can run circles around and jump over Paul Millsap abd Caleb Swanigan, but at all the athleticism in the world is useless if you can't actually play the game.

BNM
 
santeesioux said:
Someone really needs to beg him to join this site and bring his info here, I used to like checking his site a couple of years ago.
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I've asked him repeatedly. He got tired of clowns telling him he didn't know what he was talking about so just does it on his own now. He RAVED about Gobert and Giannis when no one even knew who they were. He took a lot of flak for it at the time and just said "screw it". Don't blame him.
 
tester551 said:
Ezeli has no value to anyone. He's not going to get traded.
It's already too late for him to effect the salary floor/tax calculations on the 2016-17 season.

At this point, he represents $1M of dead money for the 17-18 season. The only teams that would give up any asset are looking to dump WORSE contracts. Portland already has 3 bad contracts that we need to dump. We aren't going to take on more just to get an "asset" out of Ezeli.
Click to expand...

I think this is generally correct. The only way I could see his contract being of use would be if the Blazers included it for salary matching purposes for a player with a huge contract. Something like Crabbe plus Ezeli plus pick for Carmelo, as an example (not that I'm advocating for that trade).
 
e_blazer said:
I think this is generally correct. The only way I could see his contract being of use would be if the Blazers included it for salary matching purposes for a player with a huge contract. Something like Crabbe plus Ezeli plus pick for Carmelo, as an example (not that I'm advocating for that trade).
Click to expand...

I can see that. The trade would have to be done before the June 30 deadline so the next team could just waive him and drop the salary. The problem with Crabbe being the one attached to that is he has provisions that don't end till after June 30 that make him tougher to move.
 
tester551 said:
Ezeli has no value to anyone. He's not going to get traded.
It's already too late for him to effect the salary floor/tax calculations on the 2016-17 season.

At this point, he represents $1M of dead money for the 17-18 season. The only teams that would give up any asset are looking to dump WORSE contracts. Portland already has 3 bad contracts that we need to dump. We aren't going to take on more just to get an "asset" out of Ezeli.
Click to expand...

You could very well be right there, I didn't have time to look into the details. As others have mentioned, his contract could also be used in a package deal...

I guess my overarching thought there was: Neil had a reason to mention Ezeli not being back. That wasn't just him being an open and honest, "good guy" with the media. There are ulterior motives there...
 
Ezeli has the most value to us.... The only value in a trade is to another team looking to shave salary and unload a larger longer contract. He could be used as filler in a deal sending out Aminu perhaps, but it wouldn't save us money. With that said we still have 3 years after this season to fix the Luxury tax issue before repeat offender issues kick in.
 
TBpup said:
I can see that. The trade would have to be done before the June 30 deadline so the next team could just waive him and drop the salary. The problem with Crabbe being the one attached to that is he has provisions that don't end till after June 30 that make him tougher to move.
Click to expand...

Yeah, I wouldn't say FEAEC (Festus Ezeli Almost Expiring Contraact) has zero value, but I would say the odds of it having any value are nearly zero.

Even if we decline all our current non-guaranteed contracts (Ezili, Connaughton, and Quarterman), we're still $20 million over the luxury tax threshold. Letting Ezili go doesn't come close to getting us where we need to be. We still need to move at least one huge contract to get under the apron and at least two big contracts to get under the tax threshold.

But, they wouldn't have to be the same trade, or even at the same time. 6/30 is the deadline for picking up Ezeli's contract, but we have until the last game of the 2017-18 to get under the tax threshold. So, we could do something like use FEAEC for salary matching in a trade for an actual useful player (say Kyle O'Quinn) prior to June 30, then move Crabbe to a team under the cap (like PHI) after 7/1 and then maybe unload another contract at the trade deadline.

Yeah, it requires a series of moves, and therefore the chance something like this happening is very low, but FEAEC could potentially have some value for salary matching purposes in a trade that nets us something of positive value.

BNM
 
Schilly said:
Ezeli has the most value to us.... The only value in a trade is to another team looking to shave salary and unload a larger longer contract. He could be used as filler in a deal sending out Aminu perhaps, but it wouldn't save us money. With that said we still have 3 years after this season to fix the Luxury tax issue before repeat offender issues kick in.
Click to expand...

If it could get us a usable asset (like a Kyle O'Quinn, or whoever), I'd be all for trading FEAEC. Ezeli's non-guaranteed contract only saves us $6.7 million. We'd still need to move at least two other contracts to get under the tax threshold. So, use it if it gets us something of value in return and figure out how to shed the bad contracts we need to shed later, or if we can't get anything of value in return, just don't pick up his contract. This really is a no lose situation - either get something of value or shave $6.7 in payroll.

BNM
 
Boob-No-More said:
Shouldn't that be every pick in every draft?

BNM
Click to expand...

I don't always agree with that logic. The best player available at college level will not necessarily carey over that skill into NBA but that of course is obvious. More importantly though, often you need to look at what your team needs and whether you will be able to give that player minutes to develop. If we draft a PG now and give him 10 minutes a game, even if he is a good talent and impresses a lot he won't displace Lillard, it's better to have a power forward or a small forward who can jump into the team if he is impressing.
 
glazeduck said:
I'm gonna come at this topic from a slightly different angle, just for the sake of discussion... There's a couple things that I haven't seen anyone account for between now and the draft:
  • First: the guys that we're all talking about are being based on their perceived value (by a bunch of websites, nonetheless) 2 months prior to the actual draft. Between now and then, the culmination of the playoffs, the combine, workouts, injuries (both to prospects and to current pros), and failed tests (both of the drug and common sense varieties) will all occur. Now, obviously we can't predict who will get hurt or get arrested, but we CAN make a few projections on the first two points -- current NBA play from playoff teams and rising/falling stocks as rookie workouts happen.

  • Second: while I love mock drafts as much as the next guy, at this point, they're better for overall talent evaluation than team fit. In looking at Draftexpress and NBAdraft.net's mocks, there's a COMBINED 4 big men being drafted in their top 10s. That's 4 out of 20 picks, and Lauri Markkanen accounts for 2 of those 4, with Zach Collins and Jarrett Allen both appearing once (both at 10). While I get that the PGs and wings in this draft are the top talent, I have a VERY hard time believing that the first 9 picks will actually shape out as small guys and one stretch PF. For better or worse, there WILL be a couple bigs in the lottery, and the current mocks aren't really accounting for that.
Taking all of that into consideration, here are my thoughts...
Click to expand...
Why can't you see that?

PHI needs Guards, the Lakers and Celtics would be picking to high to not take a guard.

ORL could use a guard/wing, SAC needs a PG and SF, NYK need a PG, SG, and SF. DAL needs a PG too.

MIN is the only team that needs a PF first and foremost.
 
15: OG or 2K
20: Giles, Patton, Anigbogu
26 or later: D.J. Wilson, D. Robinson, Swanigan, Motley, Dozier, Ojeleye, Kennard.
 
BonesJones said:
Why can't you see that?

PHI needs Guards, the Lakers and Celtics would be picking to high to not take a guard.

ORL could use a guard/wing, SAC needs a PG and SF, NYK need a PG, SG, and SF. DAL needs a PG too.

MIN is the only team that needs a PF first and foremost.
Click to expand...

Actually even Minnesota probably need a top point guard prospect ahead of power forward, they do not seem too happy with Rubio and Dunn has been a little disappointing from what I gather (I don't really watch Wolves much).

It's hard to see more than two big men going in top 10 of the draft. Fultz, Ball, Tatum and Jackson are absolutely certain to be in top 10 and probably even top 5, then you have players like Isaac, Monk, Fox and Smith Jr who I also find difficult to see winding up lower than top 10. That leaves two spots and you still got Ntilikina with a great chance of jumping in and stealing one of them, especially if the pool of top PG prospects from within US is exhausted before Sacramento pick at 8th.

And all those teams need them too. Even if Celtics do not need Fultz, they will take him if they can. Phoenix can get by with Bledsoe, he is good, but they may as well trade him and start over with someone who will peak at the same time as Booker and Chriss. Orlando, Dallas and New York all badly need playmakers and Philadelphia need Fultz, Ball or Monk.
 
As a project I have done the draft in 2K. I managed to trade Turner and 2018 pick for another one in 2017 draft and actually it was a good one. I selected Markkanen, Anunoby, Ferguson, Giles and Adebayo so five players who will without doubt be on our radar. Accelerated progression rate and skipped the first season as I did not want to spend ages before they become playable.

In 2018 Nurkic adds a three pointer, improves his mid range shot and becomes an absolute rebounding machine. He plays very well with Markkanen and they are impossible to guard. Anunoby is a starter, he is clumsy on offense, shoots well when open and is amazing defender. Ferguson is a great back up SG/SF and probably makes a case to become a starter at SF. Also defends well. Adebayo and Giles play great together, zero outside shooting but they rebound EVERYTHING. Adebayo is a center, Giles a power forward. Markkanen becomes Porzingis, scored competently from mid range and three point and is perfect for this team.

Draft them.

In the meantime in another save of mine Fultz, Monk and Fox become impossible to handle for whoever plays against my 76ers, not to mention what becomes of Simmons and Embiid plus trade acquisition, Porzingis. Current Warriors are crap compared to this juggernaut.
 
Sarni said:
As a project I have done the draft in 2K. I managed to trade Turner and 2018 pick for another one in 2017 draft and actually it was a good one. I selected Markkanen, Anunoby, Ferguson, Giles and Adebayo so five players who will without doubt be on our radar. Accelerated progression rate and skipped the first season as I did not want to spend ages before they become playable.

In 2018 Nurkic adds a three pointer, improves his mid range shot and becomes an absolute rebounding machine. He plays very well with Markkanen and they are impossible to guard. Anunoby is a starter, he is clumsy on offense, shoots well when open and is amazing defender. Ferguson is a great back up SG/SF and probably makes a case to become a starter at SF. Also defends well. Adebayo and Giles play great together, zero outside shooting but they rebound EVERYTHING. Adebayo is a center, Giles a power forward. Markkanen becomes Porzingis, scored competently from mid range and three point and is perfect for this team.

Draft them.

In the meantime in another save of mine Fultz, Monk and Fox become impossible to handle for whoever plays against my 76ers, not to mention what becomes of Simmons and Embiid plus trade acquisition, Porzingis. Current Warriors are crap compared to this juggernaut.
Click to expand...
God I hope 2K fixes MyLeague/MyGM next year. They could make the mode realistic and a true SIM if they really cared. Too bad they care more about the fucking card trading MyTeam crap, and developing a cringy storyline for MyCareer.
 
Sarni said:
I don't always agree with that logic. The best player available at college level will not necessarily carey over that skill into NBA but that of course is obvious. More importantly though, often you need to look at what your team needs and whether you will be able to give that player minutes to develop. If we draft a PG now and give him 10 minutes a game, even if he is a good talent and impresses a lot he won't displace Lillard, it's better to have a power forward or a small forward who can jump into the team if he is impressing.
Click to expand...

I think when people say "best player available," they mean the best projected talent, not the best player at the college level.

As far as balancing need with talent, I agree that that's an issue, but I don't think that should ever lead you to take a less talented player at a given slot. If Portland somehow had ended up with the #1 draft pick, they shouldn't have avoided Fultz or Ball just because they have Lillard. They should either have traded back in the draft (to a team that does need a point guard) or traded Lillard. Now, trading Lillard almost certainly wouldn't happen but that's due to specific circumstances involving Lillard's meaning to the franchise. Speaking more generally, you use trades (either of the pick or players on your roster) to alleviate logjams, not selecting lesser talents to avoid the logjam.

I'm fine with using team needs to break ties, though. If Portland has a point guard and small forward equally rated on their board, they should of course take the small forward.
 
Sarni said:
As a project I have done the draft in 2K. I managed to trade Turner and 2018 pick for another one in 2017 draft and actually it was a good one. I selected Markkanen, Anunoby, Ferguson, Giles and Adebayo so five players who will without doubt be on our radar. Accelerated progression rate and skipped the first season as I did not want to spend ages before they become playable.

In 2018 Nurkic adds a three pointer, improves his mid range shot and becomes an absolute rebounding machine. He plays very well with Markkanen and they are impossible to guard. Anunoby is a starter, he is clumsy on offense, shoots well when open and is amazing defender. Ferguson is a great back up SG/SF and probably makes a case to become a starter at SF. Also defends well. Adebayo and Giles play great together, zero outside shooting but they rebound EVERYTHING. Adebayo is a center, Giles a power forward. Markkanen becomes Porzingis, scored competently from mid range and three point and is perfect for this team.

Draft them.

In the meantime in another save of mine Fultz, Monk and Fox become impossible to handle for whoever plays against my 76ers, not to mention what becomes of Simmons and Embiid plus trade acquisition, Porzingis. Current Warriors are crap compared to this juggernaut.
Click to expand...

Those created draft classes are crazy unrealistic though, the top 20 picks all come in rated 80+.

I did a similar thing with like 8 draft picks in this draft, team went like 76-6 the next year.
 
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