Mike Tokito: "Trail Blazers Questions: Did they overtinker with the roster?" (2 Viewers)

[tlongII]

Lol

 

[tykendo]

Nice house or highrise dwelling for Meyers. I'm happy for him. He needed a new start in a new local. I think the team will gel on the run. I like the new additions, but wouldn't mind the Blazers making a trade for Iggy either. I feel like that old sayings about creme rising to the top is the Blazers path. They're getting better every year. rip city!

 

[MarAzul]

Did the Blazers overtinker?

Yep!
They traded away the only help they had to stop the playoff teams from shutting the Blazers down by double teaming their prime ball handler and top scorer. Every playoff coach worth his salt seizes this upon this weakness.

 

[Pinwheel1]

But I'd question if he has the size and length to cover bigger SF's and stretch-4's like Turner could. I think that could end up being the vulnerability of the Blazer defense: losing Aminu, Harkless, and Turner make Portland weaker defensively where the NBA is pretty strong

Bazemore might not have the lower body like ET needed to bang with the bigger SF who like to post up, (are there that many?) but he does have a 4" advantage in wingspan over ET. So I think he will be better against stretch 4's.

 

[Phatguysrule]

with a 15-point fourth-quarter lead over the Lakers in Game 7 of the conference finals. Portland famously blew that lead, opening the door for the first of three consecutive championships won by Kobe Bryant-Shaquille O’Neal version of the Lakers.

Couldn't he at least mention that this was the official admittedly rigged game by the official. Would have kept by blodd pressure under 200!!!!

Eh? What did I miss? Did an official admit to rigging this game?

 

[Dougnsalem]

.

Eh? What did I miss? Did an official admit to rigging this game?

From ex NBA official, Tim Donaghy's book where he rats out his former co-workers....

https://deadspin.com/the-book-the-nba-doesnt-want-you-to-read-5392030

The 2002 series certainly wasn't the first or last time Bavetta weighed in on an important game. He also worked Game 7 of the 2000 Western Conference Finals between the Lakers and the Trail Blazers. The Lakers were down by 13 at the start of the fourth quarter when Bavetta went to work. The Lakers outscored Portland 31-13 in the fourth quarter and went on to win the game and the series. It certainly didn't hurt the Lakers that they got to shoot 37 free throws compared to a paltry 16 for the Trail Blazers.

Ten year old news, but it's still something to think about. Especially with the crappy officiating we've seen in the past....

That has to be, by far; the darkest day to be a Blazer fan. That was our second Championship just sitting there, and it was ripped out of our hands.

 

[BlazerWookee]

"in tact..."

Goddammit.

 

[mook]

It's a pretty interesting discussion on here about the changes in three point shooting. I think one piece of context that is missing is the kind of three point shots the players get. How many wide open threes, particularly in the corners, did Aminu and Harkless take? I don't have any stats to back it up, but it seemed like most of them were taken without anyone within 5 feet of them. Dame terrifying teams with his crazy 38 foot range, and CJ running everywhere off the ball (most distance traveled last year once again) meant our role players got to stand in place, catch and shoot in pretty much ideal shooting conditions.

You just can't look at a 3pt FG% number and say with any real confidence that Aminu and Harkless and Turner are significantly better or even equal shooters to guys like Bazemore and Mario. When you are on a shitty team with no superstars, you aren't going to get the same open looks, but you still have to shoot it because somebody has to. Anybody seriously think Meyers Leonard comes anywhere close to his Portland 3pt % if he gets 30 minutes a night in Miami?

In Portland, if you aren't comfortable with a shot you can always give it up to Dame or CJ and know they will probably do something better with it than you would. That fact really skews three point percentages for many of the guys who left.

 

[mook]

As for Simons, I'm all in on the hype becasuse Dame is all in on the hype. This morning I was watching Kobe's interview after playing Dame in his rookie year, and you can't get a better example of real recognizing real. The look on Kobe's face told it all.


I think there's an element of that with Dame's comments on Simons:


Lillard is a seasoned, smart dude, who famously calls it how he sees it.. He plays Simons in practice, and he knows what talent looks like.He seems to see it as a given that Simons is a star waiting to happen.

I'm expecting big things this year for Ant. He won't emerge as a star this year, but I think he'll put himself on the short list of rising young talent. I liked what Seth Curry brought to the game with his shooting, but Simons already seems like a much more complete player than him. Ant may never shoot 45% from three but he'll take a lot of the offensive load off Dame and CJ with his ball handling, size and shooting. His ability to create for himself is going to make our bench so much more effective.

 

[PCmor7]

No.

 

[SharpesTriumph]

I don't disagree

so then go for the last 4 seasons; Aminu/Harkless vs Hood/Bazemore. Over that time Aminu/Harkless averaged 34.6%; Hood Bazemore averaged 36.1%. That puts Hood/Bazemore at the league average and Aminu/Harkless a little below average.

maybe some perspective on those numbers: assume the duos would combine for 500 three's attempted in a season. That would mean Hood/Bazemore would make 180 while Harkless/Aminu make 173. That's over a season; that's a total of 21 points. Right about .25 points a game. And all the chatter around here has been how replacing Aminu/Harkless with Hood/Bazemore is going to keep defenses honest; change how teams defended Portland because of the poor and inconsistent shooting of Aminu/Harkless. Put it another way, over the course of 11 games, Hood/Bazemore would make 18 three's, Aminu/Harkless would make 17. Does anybody really believe that defense will change how they defend Portland because of the threat of an added .25 points/game?

and of course, three point shooting isn't the only aspect of shooting players bring to the table. For their careers, there's TS%

Maurice Harkless .541 Rodney Hood .538 Kent Bazemore .523 Al-Farouq Aminu .520

the main point is yeah, there's been an upgrade in perimeter shooting in those duo's. But it's not a significant upgrade that is really going to change opposing defenses. And these duos bring other things to the game. While there is an upgrade in perimeter shooting and ball-handling, there's a downgrade in defense and rebounding



that's kind of my point. Simons has not established any predictive value. Just wishful value. We don't know yet how he'll perform with a much bigger role and how he'll adjust once he's scouted

besides that, I was talking about Zach/Simons and there is a lot more predictive value in Zach's shooting numbers

How much better will Hood Bazemore shoot from having the wide open looks Amimu Harkless have benefited from? Maybe a ton. Nurk sure did better playing off Dame than Mudiay. Maybe not at all. We will see.

I think defensive loss of our forwards is being underestimated by most though.

 

[ripcity67]

.


From ex NBA official, Tim Donaghy's book where he rats out his former co-workers....

https://deadspin.com/the-book-the-nba-doesnt-want-you-to-read-5392030

The 2002 series certainly wasn't the first or last time Bavetta weighed in on an important game. He also worked Game 7 of the 2000 Western Conference Finals between the Lakers and the Trail Blazers. The Lakers were down by 13 at the start of the fourth quarter when Bavetta went to work. The Lakers outscored Portland 31-13 in the fourth quarter and went on to win the game and the series. It certainly didn't hurt the Lakers that they got to shoot 37 free throws compared to a paltry 16 for the Trail Blazers.

Ten year old news, but it's still something to think about. Especially with the crappy officiating we've seen in the past....

That has to be, by far; the darkest day to be a Blazer fan. That was our second Championship just sitting there, and it was ripped out of our hands.

Yes I am still bitter about this game. I remember watching the game and we were discussing how this game seemed rigged like the NBA wanted the Fakers in the championship. Yes I have moved on, but I do cry a bit when I remeber how good that team was.

 

[kjironman1]

Yes I am still bitter about this game. I remember watching the game and we were discussing how this game seemed rigged like the NBA wanted the Fakers in the championship. Yes I have moved on, but I do cry a bit when I remeber how good that team was.

Don't blame the refs when Sheed was on the court.

 

[andalusian]

The biggest change from Chief / Harkless to Hood / Baze is not in the shooting, it is with their ability to put the ball on the floor and create something for themselves or others. Both Hark and Chief, bless them, had issues with that more often than not (and that includes last year where Chief improved quite a bit in this regard).

I am also under the impression that the same advantage will be felt in the transition from Curry to Ant, Even if Ant is not the crazy pure shooter Curry is.

 

[Hoopguru]

The biggest change from Chief / Harkless to Hood / Baze is not in the shooting, it is with their ability to put the ball on the floor and create something for themselves or others. Both Hark and Chief, bless them, had issues with that more often than not (and that includes last year where Chief improved quite a bit in this regard).

I am also under the impression that the same advantage will be felt in the transition from Curry to Ant, Even if Ant is not the crazy pure shooter Curry is.

I thinkMo will actually get new life with the Clips.
He will be counted on to come off the bench and let lose and he plays better when he knows he's not the 4/5th option.

 

[kjironman1]

he plays better when he knows he's not the 4/5th option.

As opposed to being the 5th or 6th option? Not sure i see your point here?

 

[Hoopguru]

As opposed to being the 5th or 6th option? Not sure i see your point here?

When he started he was 4/5 option on offense.
If he comes off the Clips bench he will be 2/3 option more than likely.
He himself on several occasions said that it tough to be 4/5 option as you basically are just waiting at a spot.
Thats would be tough, imo.

 

[wizenheimer]

Bazemore might not have the lower body like ET needed to bang with the bigger SF who like to post up, (are there that many?) but he does have a 4" advantage in wingspan over ET. So I think he will be better against stretch 4's.

IMO, wingspan is generally overrated. Bazemore and Jeremy Lamb have about the same wingspan, that doesn't make Lamb a good defender. Good defense starts with the legs, not the fingertips; with lateral mobility rather than arm extension

Aminu/Harkless/Turner have a better chance of defending PF's & stretch-wings like Lebron, AD, Griffin, Millsap, Draymond Green, Giannis, Kevin Love, & Aaron Gordon than Bazemore/Hood will have. Wingspan won't help much at all in the paint, and it will be size and strength that will keep those kind of players away from the offensive glass

I'm not sure why it's so controversial around here to suggest that Portland's defense & rebounding at the 'wing & stretch' minutes will be downgraded when going from Aminu/Harkless/Turner to Bazemore/Hood/(Tolliver/Hezonja). Just about every available defensive metric and eyeball test supports the assertion. It may be that a potential upgrade in shooting and ball-handling on the other end of the floor will more than offset the downgrade of defense and rebounding, but that's not certain. it's pretty obviously the bet of the front office, but not all those bets have paid off

 

[Pinwheel1]

IMO, wingspan is generally overrated. Bazemore and Jeremy Lamb have about the same wingspan, that doesn't make Lamb a good defender. Good defense starts with the legs, not the fingertips; with lateral mobility rather than arm extension

Aminu/Harkless/Turner have a better chance of defending PF's & stretch-wings like Lebron, AD, Griffin, Millsap, Draymond Green, Giannis, Kevin Love, & Aaron Gordon than Bazemore/Hood will have. Wingspan won't help much at all in the paint, and it will be size and strength that will keep those kind of players away from the offensive glass

I'm not sure why it's so controversial around here to suggest that Portland's defense & rebounding at the 'wing & stretch' minutes will be downgraded when going from Aminu/Harkless/Turner to Bazemore/Hood/(Tolliver/Hezonja). Just about every available defensive metric and eyeball test supports the assertion. It may be that a potential upgrade in shooting and ball-handling on the other end of the floor will more than offset the downgrade of defense and rebounding, but that's not certain. it's pretty obviously the bet of the front office, but not all those bets have paid off

It's not controversial it's just that people keep bringing up lack of "length" when discussing our new wing defenders. How did we get shorter? And how is wing span over rated on the perimeter where most SF's play? I specifically acknowledged that against bigger players who post up, that he could have problems.

Also if you are going to include Aminu when talking about the loss of defense and rebounding then you have to include the addition of Zach when mentioning his replacements. I assume he will be starting.

I don't mean to ignore what Harkless and ET brought to the team from a defensive/rebounding perspective, I am just questioning if we actually lose length by starting Bazemore, Collins and Whiteside. I would bring Hood off the bench at SG and Mario off the bench at SF. Again not a loss of size there either.

 

[kjironman1]

When he started he was 4/5 option on offense.
If he comes off the Clips bench he will be 2/3 option more than likely.
He himself on several occasions said that it tough to be 4/5 option as you basically are just waiting at a spot.
Thats would be tough, imo.

This conversation had me looking at their roster. Not sure Mo will see much playing time other than spot minutes against specific opponents and filling in due to injuries. I just don't see him as the second or even third option off the bench for the Clippers. I guess we will see?

 

[BlazerBeav]

I'm just waiting for that .500 start. The Blazers will be lucky to go 10-10 to start this season. The Haters will be trolling and the writers will be writing away.
Personally from the way it looks to me if this team is at .500 at Christmas it will be a good start.

Huh, that's a funny way to type 20-0.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

Huh, that's a funny way to type 20-0.

10 (close wins) - 10 (blowout wins)

Makes perfect sense to me.

 

[wizenheimer]

It's not controversial it's just that people keep bringing up lack of "length" when discussing our new wing defenders. How did we get shorter? And how is wing span over rated on the perimeter where most SF's play? I specifically acknowledged that against bigger players who post up, that he could have problems.

I mentioned why I thought wingspan was overrated defensively. Good defense isn't about extending arms to the sides, it's about moving the feet; it's not about reaching, it's about reaction. A lot of people always zero in on wingspan as if it's a primary factor...it's not. I'm not saying length can't help on the perimeter (or the paint), just that other factors are more important. All other things being equal of course it's better to have the 'longer' player. But all other things are never equal

size matters as much as length too. Bazemore was 6'3.75 (barefoot) while Aminu and Harkless were both 6'7.25. Hood was the same height as Aminu & Harkless with 7" less wingspan than Aminu and 4" less than Harkless. (an amusing observation: Draft Express had Evan Turner's pre-draft comp as Brandon Roy...that sure missed by miles)

Also if you are going to include Aminu when talking about the loss of defense and rebounding then you have to include the addition of Zach when mentioning his replacements. I assume he will be starting.

that's true....BUT...Aminu switching onto (or guarding) guys like Lebron, PG13, Kawhi, Giannis, Durant, Gallo, Draymond, etc. was not as problematic as it's likely to be with Zach doing so. He was quite often in foul trouble guarding 2nd unit PF's and C's...it will be worse if he spends a lot more time guarding starting-level wings and stretch-4's. Zach's not going to help the defense if he's siting on the bench

I'm really not sure what it is you're trying to argue...are you actually saying that Portland's defense at wing and stretch will be just as good with Bazemore/Hood/Zach as it was with Aminu/Harkless/Hood?

Bazemore I'll give you, at least until I've seen him defend in the Stotts' defense. But Aminu is a lot more versatile than Zach (perimeter). And Hood has consistently been 2-3 points worse than his teams in defensive rating. To me, that's a telling stat. Aminu and Harkless have always been + defenders in that stat. Turner's been close to neutral, IIRC. Not only all that, last year Zach spent at least half of his time at C and he's certain to spend plenty of minutes at C this season. Even if it's 33% at C and he averages 28 minutes (what Aminu averaged), that still leaves 28 PF minutes a game that Zach won't be logging. It would be loopy to think that a Zach/Tolliver/Hezonja rotation at PF would be better than a Aminu/Zach/Harkless rotation

 

[Pinwheel1]

I mentioned why I thought wingspan was overrated defensively. Good defense isn't about extending arms to the sides, it's about moving the feet; it's not about reaching, it's about reaction. A lot of people always zero in on wingspan as if it's a primary factor...it's not. I'm not saying length can't help on the perimeter (or the paint), just that other factors are more important. All other things being equal of course it's better to have the 'longer' player. But all other things are never equal

size matters as much as length too. Bazemore was 6'3.75 (barefoot) while Aminu and Harkless were both 6'7.25. Hood was the same height as Aminu & Harkless with 7" less wingspan than Aminu and 4" less than Harkless. (an amusing observation: Draft Express had Evan Turner's pre-draft comp as Brandon Roy...that sure missed by miles)



that's true....BUT...Aminu switching onto (or guarding) guys like Lebron, PG13, Kawhi, Giannis, Durant, Gallo, Draymond, etc. was not as problematic as it's likely to be with Zach doing so. He was quite often in foul trouble guarding 2nd unit PF's and C's...it will be worse if he spends a lot more time guarding starting-level wings and stretch-4's. Zach's not going to help the defense if he's siting on the bench

I'm really not sure what it is you're trying to argue...are you actually saying that Portland's defense at wing and stretch will be just as good with Bazemore/Hood/Zach as it was with Aminu/Harkless/Hood?

Bazemore I'll give you, at least until I've seen him defend in the Stotts' defense. But Aminu is a lot more versatile than Zach (perimeter). And Hood has consistently been 2-3 points worse than his teams in defensive rating. To me, that's a telling stat. Aminu and Harkless have always been + defenders in that stat. Turner's been close to neutral, IIRC. Not only all that, last year Zach spent at least half of his time at C and he's certain to spend plenty of minutes at C this season. Even if it's 33% at C and he averages 28 minutes (what Aminu averaged), that still leaves 28 PF minutes a game that Zach won't be logging. It would be loopy to think that a Zach/Tolliver/Hezonja rotation at PF would be better than a Aminu/Zach/Harkless rotation

Yes I think it is a given that length does not necessarily mean you are good on D. I was simply saying we have the same length coming back. (Bazemore=Harkless, Mario=ET, Zach=Aminu, Simons is longer than Curry) However I do agree that Aminu is a better perimeter defender than Zach. That will hurt against a few teams. But is he a better overall player? Zach's helps defense around the basket is not too shabby.

Yes size matters, (weight and strength) but who cares if Bazemore is under 6.4" if he has a 7' wing AND does the things that you mentioned ("Good defense isn't about extending arms to the sides, it's about moving the feet; it's not about reaching, it's about reaction") As we always point out, you don't play with the top of your head.

 

[HailBlazers]

Interior defense will be great. Perimeter TBD.

 

[Wizard Mentor]

The guys that are gone weren't very effective in the offense.

Regardless of percentages, opposing defenses knew that they could leave Harkless and Aminu. Sometimes, they'd get burned for that, but not usually - it was a good tactic.

When Curry was able to shoot, it was great. But, mostly, the Blazers passing to Curry was just burning time off the clock - he was going to dribble twice and make a slow pass.

So, one of the early storylines is going to be "do the new guys make opposing defenses pay for doubling off the them?" I think they will, but maybe that's just my optimism.

Ant can do so much more than Curry, it's ridiculous. The problem is "will he be aggressive enough?" Young Blazers are taught to "fit in". If Ant tries to fit in, it'll hurt us.

Personally, I think the youngins and new guys will see more open shots than they have their whole careers, and they'll prosper. We'll see.

Defense is another matter, but Bazemore was a defense first player in college, and that's what got him into the league - he'll be fine. The others? Again, we'll see. Harkless and Aminu weren't worldbeaters, but they were dependable. The new guys are going to have to establish some trust. It's not obvious that they won't.