Mike Tokito: "Trail Blazers Questions: Did they overtinker with the roster?"

[PtldPlatypus]

https://www.forbes.com/sites/miketo...they-overtinker-with-the-roster/#4aef83454888

The Portland Trail Blazers are about to officially go back to work with training camp starting Tuesday, Oct. 1. Ahead of the Sept. 30 media session that serves as the kickoff for the 2019-20 season, we’ll ponder a few questions that face the 50th anniversary version of the team, staring with:

Did the Blazers overtinker?

Portland is coming off a season in which it reached the Western Conference Finals, its deepest playoff run in 19 years. If you go back 20 years, you see a Blazers team that foreshadowed the way the current iteration was put together.

In 1998-99 – a season reduced to 50 games because of a lockout – the Blazers reached the Western Conference Finals. Like the 2018-19 Blazers who lost all four games in the conference finals to Golden State, the 1998-99 team was swept in the conference finals, by San Antonio.

General manger Bob Whitsitt kept such core pieces such as Rasheed Wallace, Damon Stoudamire and Arvydas Sabonis, but he made some major roster changes around them, adding established veterans in Scottie Pippen, Steve Smith and Detlef Shrempf . The formula seemed to pay off as the Blazers won 59 games, which remains tied for the second most regular-season victories in the franchise’s 49 seasons, and seemed about to reach the NBA Finals, with a 15-point fourth-quarter lead over the Lakers in Game 7 of the conference finals. Portland famously blew that lead, opening the door for the first of three consecutive championships won by Kobe Bryant-Shaquille O’Neal version of the Lakers.

There’s reasonable debate about whether the changes Whitsitt made were worth the effort, whether getting to a seventh game in the conference final is a significant enough step forward from being swept in the same round, especially since the franchise quickly went backwards after that season, going the next 13 years without winning a playoff series.


The 2019-20 team has had a roster turnover on par with that 1999-2000 team, with possibly five new players who will be part of the regular rotation, but with an intact core of Damian Lillard, CJ McCollum and Jusuf Nurkic (once he returns from injury).

The Blazers added veterans in Kent Bazemore, Hassan Whiteside, Pau Gasol and Anthony Tolliver, all of whom are on the final years (or only year) of contracts, creating flexibility to put together a multi-year run at a title. In some ways the Blazers are following the model of San Antonio, which kept in tact a core of Tony Parker, Manu Ginobili and Tim Duncan, and added players around them, some for short-term help, and at least one (Kawhi Leonard) turning into superstar.

Portland GM Neil Olshey is by no means going full-blown Trader Bob with his team (Whitsitt aggressively made win-now trades with seemingly no long-term or developmental plans). Olshey continues a strong draft-and-develop program through which McCollum became a star, and Zach Collins and Anfernee Simons could blossom. They might not be at the Kawhi Leonard level, but both could become foundational players for years to come.

Certainly, Olshey tinkered a lot in the offseason, but he also got significant value for his three most challenging contracts from 2018-19 in Evan Turner (trading him for Bazemore), Meyers Leonard and Maurice Harkless (who were used in a four-team trade that landed Whiteside). And re-signing Rodney Hood – who figures to give Portland more offensive punch than it got from Harkless as the starting small forward — for well under market value is a major testament to the culture Olshey, coach Terry Stotts and Lillard and McCollum have established.

Did the Blazers overtinker? The real answer will come in May – or even June – when we see if this team is a step better than last season’s.​

 

[EL PRESIDENTE]

No. They got rid of guys who weren't contributing too much and were paid too much.

 

[BigGameDamian]

I know a lot of people bitched about Turner but there will be times we miss his ball handling and decision making.

 

[The Professional Fan]

No. We got better.

 

[TorturedBlazerFan]

I know a lot of people bitched about Turner but there will be times we miss his ball handling and decision making.

Not I.

 

[Hoopguru]

From what I understand Bazemore can D up and also has a decent handle.
However, I think he's a much better shooter.
We will find out soon!

 

[RipCityWarrior]

I am hopeful that bazemore can d up as well as turner did when he was locked in. I have a feeling Herzonjas playmaking will be a very good addition under Stotts style.

 

[Strenuus]

I know a lot of people bitched about Turner but there will be times we miss his ball handling and decision making.

Well, itd be easy to identify the people who are on drugs when those times happen.

 

[Hobbesarable]

Overanalyzing.

Changes needed to be made and it happened. I will enjoy the upcoming season.

 

[STOMP]

Overanalyzing.

Changes needed to be made and it happened. I will enjoy the upcoming season.

I can get behind this I guess, but unfortunately I don't share the optimism about the latest mix that most weighing in seem to. I wanted more outside shooting and got less. I like defense from the frontcourt and want versitile defenders who can switch off seemlessly. While Whiteside can clog the middle, he can't switch off on smaller guys and I fear he'll be iso'd to death if they try to. My biggest hope is that Zach takes giant steps forward and truly deserves the spot Neal carved out for him. My secondary hope is that Mario proves worthy of SF minutes as I like Hood off the bench bringing it. I feel he needs the game to run through him to be effective and he'd get lost as a starter.

I will enjoy the season as I love hoops. Hope I'm off on my pessimism and the Blazers crush it.

STOMP

 

[handiman]

I like this summer's changes, but I have to admit, it's an interesting then-and-now perspective. Fashion trends repeat themselves every 20 years, so why not NBA team building patterns in Portland?? It only makes sense.

 

[BonesJones]

I can get behind this I guess, but unfortunately I don't share the optimism about the latest mix that most weighing in seem to. I wanted more outside shooting and got less. I like defense from the frontcourt and want versitile defenders who can switch off seemlessly. While Whiteside can clog the middle, he can't switch off on smaller guys and I fear he'll be iso'd to death if they try to. My biggest hope is that Zach takes giant steps forward and truly deserves the spot Neal carved out for him. My secondary hope is that Mario proves worthy of SF minutes as I like Hood off the bench bringing it. I feel he needs the game to run through him to be effective and he'd get lost as a starter.

I will enjoy the season as I love hoops. Hope I'm off on my pessimism and the Blazers crush it.

STOMP

Howd we get less? We lost Kanter, Aminu, Harkless and Turner from our main rotation. Curry was the only legit shooting we lossed amd we replace them with Simons, Bazemore, Tolliver, and Hood+Collins playing more minutes.

 

[STOMP]

Howd we get less? We lost Kanter, Aminu, Harkless and Turner from our main rotation. Curry was the only legit shooting we lossed amd we replace them with Simons, Bazemore, Tolliver, and Hood+Collins playing more minutes.

Seth shot 45% from deep last year... did that lead the league? If Tolliver plays a role bigger then garbage minutes/towel waver, Portland is truly in trouble as he's one of the worst Defensive Bigs I've ever seen and well on the wrong side of 30. I expressed hopes for Hezonja to earn a role (for some reason you omited him) but he shot a Turner-esk 27% from 3s last season. Bazemore shot 32% from deep last season while Hood shot 34%. My fingers are crossed for Simons but he also shot 34% from 3s last season. Collins 33%. You list Kanter as if he's anything different then Whiteside.

PDX had 3 legit deep ball threats, by my count they now have 2. Thats how.

STOMP

 

[BonesJones]

Seth shot 45% from deep last year... did that lead the league? If Tolliver plays a role bigger then garbage minutes/towel waver, Portland is truly in trouble as he's one of the worst Defensive Bigs I've ever seen and well on the wrong side of 30. I expressed hopes for Hezonja to earn a role (for some reason you omited him) but he shot a Turner-esk 27% from 3s last season. Bazemore shot 32% from deep last season while Hood shot 34%. My fingers are crossed for Simons but he also shot 34% from 3s last season. Collins 33%. You list Kanter as if he's anything different then Whiteside.

PDX had 3 legit deep ball threats, by my count they now have 2. Thats how.

STOMP

So you dont think Hood is a good shooter? You dont think Simons is either, based off the smallest of samples? You dont think Collins will continue to improve?

Id rather have multiple solid to good shooters than one elite shooter. Its better for spacing.

 

[Dougnsalem]

Screw that a hole. I quit reading when he just HAD TO bring up 99-00 playoffs. F him.....

 

[ripcity67]

with a 15-point fourth-quarter lead over the Lakers in Game 7 of the conference finals. Portland famously blew that lead, opening the door for the first of three consecutive championships won by Kobe Bryant-Shaquille O’Neal version of the Lakers.

Couldn't he at least mention that this was the official admittedly rigged game by the official. Would have kept by blodd pressure under 200!!!!

 

[STOMP]

Id rather have multiple solid to good shooters than one elite shooter. Its better for spacing.

Of course it's better to have more good shooters then just one. Yes we can hope that the young players improve, that would be great. But facts are Portland has fewer guys on in the projected rotation with a track records as good 3 point shooters then last year. You want to bring up Tolliver? I'll counter with Meyers, who as much as I cringed over is better as a defender and 3 point threat. Most of the guys you listed have shot the 3 ball about the same as Al-Farouq (career 34%) and no one would describe him as a good shooter. Hood is the best of the bunch but as a deep ball threat he's (A) definitely not Seth and (B) was already on the roster last year. I see him as a volume shooter who gets his rhythm going off the dribble and not a catch and shoot guy you can stick in the corner to keep the D spread.

Come the end of games and especially the playoffs, I expect we're going to see the same strategy teams have employed of daring anyone outside of Dame and CJ to make a shot. Here's to the young guys taking giant steps forward and making them pay... especially Collins. If he could advance to become a solid shooter from the perimeter that would really help the spacing.

STOMP

 

[tlongII]

Of course it's better to have more good shooters then just one. Yes we can hope that the young players improve, that would be great. But facts are Portland has fewer guys on in the projected rotation with a track records as good 3 point shooters then last year. You want to bring up Tolliver? I'll counter with Meyers, who as much as I cringed over is better as a defender and 3 point threat. Most of the guys you listed have shot the 3 ball about the same as Al-Farouq (career 34%) and no one would describe him as a good shooter. Hood is the best of the bunch but as a deep ball threat he's (A) definitely not Seth and (B) was already on the roster last year. I see him as a volume shooter who gets his rhythm going off the dribble and not a catch and shoot guy you can stick in the corner to keep the D spread.

Come the end of games and especially the playoffs, I expect we're going to see the same strategy teams have employed of daring anyone outside of Dame and CJ to make a shot. Here's to the young guys taking giant steps forward and making them pay... especially Collins. If he could advance to become a solid shooter from the perimeter that would really help the spacing.

STOMP

You have a valid argument. However, I think Ant will be close to as effective as Seth with the 3 ball. Ant is a tremendous shooter.

 

[BonesJones]

Of course it's better to have more good shooters then just one. Yes we can hope that the young players improve, that would be great. But facts are Portland has fewer guys on in the projected rotation with a track records as good 3 point shooters then last year. You want to bring up Tolliver? I'll counter with Meyers, who as much as I cringed over is better as a defender and 3 point threat. Most of the guys you listed have shot the 3 ball about the same as Al-Farouq (career 34%) and no one would describe him as a good shooter. Hood is the best of the bunch but as a deep ball threat he's (A) definitely not Seth and (B) was already on the roster last year. I see him as a volume shooter who gets his rhythm going off the dribble and not a catch and shoot guy you can stick in the corner to keep the D spread.

Come the end of games and especially the playoffs, I expect we're going to see the same strategy teams have employed of daring anyone outside of Dame and CJ to make a shot. Here's to the young guys taking giant steps forward and making them pay... especially Collins. If he could advance to become a solid shooter from the perimeter that would really help the spacing.

STOMP

If you give more minutes to better shooters and take them away from worse shooters, are you not adding more shooting to the equation?

I mean, if you establish a number of qualifications, you could probably make that case. But mathematically, it's highly likely our 3pt shooting is better this season.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

If you give more minutes to better shooters and take them away from worse shooters, are you not adding more shooting to the equation?

I mean, if you establish a number of qualifications, you could probably make that case. But mathematically, it's highly likely our 3pt shooting is better this season.

Blazers overall were 904-2520, 0.359 from 3 last year
Returning players; 493-1374, 0.359
Departed players: 411-1146, 0.359

Incoming players: 227-696, 0.326
Returning players expected to increase role (Simons/Hood/Collins): 79-234, 0.338

Yes, it's possible that we have improved shooting next year, but looking at the actual numbers from last year, I don't see how you can say that "mathematically, it's highly likely".

 

[kjironman1]

I'm just waiting for that .500 start. The Blazers will be lucky to go 10-10 to start this season. The Haters will be trolling and the writers will be writing away.
Personally from the way it looks to me if this team is at .500 at Christmas it will be a good start.

 

[STOMP]

mathematically, it's highly likely our 3pt shooting is better this season.

Mathematically I just demonstrated the opposite. I wish that wasn't the case.

Lets cross our fingers that our hopes turn out to be true. I'll remember this conversation... last year PDX shot 0.359% from deep

STOMP

 

[kjironman1]

I am also just about through with the anointment of Simmons. That kid hasn't even played yet. Can he contribute should be the conversation. Not "How he will contribute". If he has a couple good games he will be scouted and he will go through all the same issues every NBA player goes through. That is "IF" he has some good games. Not games against 2nd and 3rd string d league players. We are talking the rigors of a full NBA season.

 

[wizenheimer]

I am hopeful that bazemore can d up as well as turner did when he was locked in. I have a feeling Herzonjas playmaking will be a very good addition under Stotts style.

I haven't seen a lot of Bazemore, so my take on his defense may be off: IMO, Turner came in overrated as a defender. He was a fairly decent defender against perimeter (and some interior) size and physicality. But he was poor against perimeter speed...he just didn't have the lateral reactions to stay with quicker players. I'd say Bazemore might flip that script; he should have the quickness to cover speed. But I'd question if he has the size and length to cover bigger SF's and stretch-4's like Turner could. I think that could end up being the vulnerability of the Blazer defense: losing Aminu, Harkless, and Turner make Portland weaker defensively where the NBA is pretty strong

and, I'm pretty skeptical about Hezonja's "playmaking". A secondary facilitator really needs an assist/turnover ratio north of 2.0 to be consistently effective. Hezonja's mark is only half that
**************************************

I can get behind this I guess, but unfortunately I don't share the optimism about the latest mix that most weighing in seem to. I wanted more outside shooting and got less. I like defense from the frontcourt and want versitile defenders who can switch off seemlessly. While Whiteside can clog the middle, he can't switch off on smaller guys and I fear he'll be iso'd to death if they try to. My biggest hope is that Zach takes giant steps forward and truly deserves the spot Neal carved out for him. My secondary hope is that Mario proves worthy of SF minutes as I like Hood off the bench bringing it. I feel he needs the game to run through him to be effective and he'd get lost as a starter.

Howd we get less? We lost Kanter, Aminu, Harkless and Turner from our main rotation. Curry was the only legit shooting we lossed amd we replace them with Simons, Bazemore, Tolliver, and Hood+Collins playing more minutes.

* Aminu, Harkless, Curry, Turner, Layman, & Meyers combined for 362-995 on three's. That's 36.4%

* Bazemore, Hezonja, and Tolliver combined for 219-667 on three's. That's only 32.8%.

meanwhile, Hood replaced Stauskas. He shot 34.5% as a Blazer. Stauskas shot 34.4%. If you take Hood's entire season last year and add it to Bazemore-Tolliver-Hezonja, that foursome combined for 33.6% shooting from three.

even treating Hood as a new arrival, the new guys are bringing 33.6% shooting to replace 36.4% shooting....statistically at least, that's a fail (and before somebody says Bazemore shot terrible last season and that's skewing things, Aminu, Harkless and Turner all shot much worse last season as well)

so then, the 4 new guys at 33.6% needing to eclipse 36.4% (by how much?). Then there is the Zach/Simons factor. Well, Zach shot 33.1% last season. And Simons shot 34.5%.

like so many things about this new Blazer team, a lot depends on Zach/Simons and a lot depends on articles of faith. There aren't many truly established standards by new players pointing at an improved Blazer team over last year's version...IMO

 

[wizenheimer]

I am also just about through with the anointment of Simmons. That kid hasn't even played yet. Can he contribute should be the conversation. Not "How he will contribute". If he has a couple good games he will be scouted and he will go through all the same issues every NBA player goes through. That is "IF" he has some good games. Not games against 2nd and 3rd string d league players. We are talking the rigors of a full NBA season.

agreed. I like his potential and upside. He might have a high ceiling

but some of the expectations for him around here are downright loopy. He only played in 141 minutes last year and 48 of those came in one game. He hasn't established anything

I mean:

I think Ant will be close to as effective as Seth with the 3 ball. Ant is a tremendous shooter.

Seth shot 45% last season while Ant shot under 35%. But Simons is going to be close to as effective?

 

[B-Roy]

Shooting is such a variable stat, I don't know why one would just look at last season instead of career numbers. For example, Hood is much closer to a 37% shooter than a 34% shooter on his career, and on higher volume than any of the guys that left outside of Seth. Bazemore is closer to 35% than 32%, also on higher volume. Meyers was a high percentage shooter, but he was a situational player. His minutes are going to be taken by someone who is also a high percentage shooter, but situational player in Tolliver so I don't see that as much of a loss.

Seth shot 45% last season while Ant shot under 35%. But Simons is going to be close to as effective?

I just don't see the logic of bringing up his 35% shooting last year on garbage time. It's just a tiny sample size in mostly non-competitive minutes I just see no predictive value from it. He shot 10/29. If he shot 11/29 he would have been 38%. If he shot 12/29 threes he would have been 41%. If he shot 13/29 he would have been 45%. Would you be confident in his shooting then? It just seems so silly to me. I'm not projecting Ant as being the same level of shooter as Seth, that would be difficult, but I find this point kind of ridiculous.

And honestly, I am less concerned with Curry in general. He played less than 20 minutes per game, and most of those minutes were with Dame and CJ off the floor. I'm more concerned about the guys that are going to soak the minutes spent spacing for Dame and CJ. IE. Hood, Bazemore, Zach. Zach in particular is going to need to improve as more than a Harkless-level shooter or else he won't stay on the floor in crunch time.

 

[tlongII]

agreed. I like his potential and upside. He might have a high ceiling

but some of the expectations for him around here are downright loopy. He only played in 141 minutes last year and 48 of those came in one game. He hasn't established anything

I mean:



Seth shot 45% last season while Ant shot under 35%. But Simons is going to be close to as effective?

Yes he will. Obviously I can't support the argument with statistics, but I believe he will. He is a terrific long range shooter in my opinion.

 

[kjironman1]

agreed. I like his potential and upside. He might have a high ceiling

but some of the expectations for him around here are downright loopy. He only played in 141 minutes last year and 48 of those came in one game. He hasn't established anything

I mean:



Seth shot 45% last season while Ant shot under 35%. But Simons is going to be close to as effective?

I use that very same stat. Minutes played for a bunch of players. Until they have 1000-2000 mins they are first year players. Run in the D league is not the same. Sometimes it take a player 3 years to get 1000+ mins. It's a real good benchmark.

 

[wizenheimer]

Shooting is such a variable stat, I don't know why one would just look at last season instead of career numbers. For example, Hood is much closer to a 37% shooter than a 34% shooter on his career, and on higher volume than any of the guys that left outside of Seth. Bazemore is closer to 35% than 32%, also on higher volume.

I don't disagree

so then go for the last 4 seasons; Aminu/Harkless vs Hood/Bazemore. Over that time Aminu/Harkless averaged 34.6%; Hood Bazemore averaged 36.1%. That puts Hood/Bazemore at the league average and Aminu/Harkless a little below average.

maybe some perspective on those numbers: assume the duos would combine for 500 three's attempted in a season. That would mean Hood/Bazemore would make 180 while Harkless/Aminu make 173. That's over a season; that's a total of 21 points. Right about .25 points a game. And all the chatter around here has been how replacing Aminu/Harkless with Hood/Bazemore is going to keep defenses honest; change how teams defended Portland because of the poor and inconsistent shooting of Aminu/Harkless. Put it another way, over the course of 11 games, Hood/Bazemore would make 18 three's, Aminu/Harkless would make 17. Does anybody really believe that defense will change how they defend Portland because of the threat of an added .25 points/game?

and of course, three point shooting isn't the only aspect of shooting players bring to the table. For their careers, there's TS%

Maurice Harkless .541 Rodney Hood .538 Kent Bazemore .523 Al-Farouq Aminu .520

the main point is yeah, there's been an upgrade in perimeter shooting in those duo's. But it's not a significant upgrade that is really going to change opposing defenses. And these duos bring other things to the game. While there is an upgrade in perimeter shooting and ball-handling, there's a downgrade in defense and rebounding

I just don't see the logic of bringing up his 35% shooting last year on garbage time. It's just a tiny sample size in mostly non-competitive minutes I just see no predictive value from it.

that's kind of my point. Simons has not established any predictive value. Just wishful value. We don't know yet how he'll perform with a much bigger role and how he'll adjust once he's scouted

besides that, I was talking about Zach/Simons and there is a lot more predictive value in Zach's shooting numbers

 

[BigGameDamian]