Minny announcers baffled on our success

[magnifier661]

Bnm; you are a scholar!

 

[BLAZINGGIANTS]

2013 is one seriously tough schedule for the Blazers. So while it's nice to think that the Blazers might keep up their current pace and continue to win close, odds are the teeth of the schedule is going to take a bite.

I haven't seen enough to make me think we'll win more than 34-38 games.

Hope I'm wrong, but I just don't see much more. For the record, given the roster, a rookie PG, injuries, etc.... I could handle that. I don't think we're far from a 6-8 seed, but we don't have any depth and the season is 82 games. Now, if Lillard continues to improve, guys adjust to bigger roles and continue to grow (Wes, Nic, and JJ especially), we could see us combat the upcoming tougher schedule. Time will tell, but I expect we'll continue to win tough games, lose ones we shouldn't, finish a few games out of 8th, and feel comfortable knowing that if we add some depth, we'll be back in the playoffs with the potential to be spoilers next season.

Is that most exciting? No. But I feel better about the future now than I did back at the end of the summer.

 

[Further]

Wow BNM, great analytical post. I think I agree, but being much dumber than you I'm going to have to contemplate your sage words a while before finally giving up and turning my attention to youporn.

 

[PapaG]

When it comes to win-loss record, this team is seriously overachieving. Basketball-reference calculates expected won-loss record based on a number of key team stats.

Here's what they say about the Blazers:

PTS/G: 96.5 (15th of 30) ▪ Opp PTS/G: 98.6 (19th of 30)
SRS: -2.33 (20th of 30) ▪ Pace: 90.6 (23rd of 30)
Off Rtg: 104.8 (14th of 30) ▪ Def Rtg: 107.2 (24th of 30)
Expected W-L: 14-19 (20th of 30)
Actual W-L: 18-15

Compare that to the underchieving Lakers:

PTS/G: 102.9 (5th of 30) ▪ Opp PTS/G: 100.8 (26th of 30)
SRS: 2.38 (9th of 30) ▪ Pace: 94.3 (3rd of 30)
Off Rtg: 108.7 (6th of 30) ▪ Def Rtg: 106.6 (21st of 30)
Expected W-L: 19-14 (10th of 30)
Actual W-L: 15-18

So, why are the Blazers winning more games than the stats predict? My theory is outstanding late game execution in close games by our above average starters. If you look at our starters, they are all above league average (PER = 15.00)

J.J. Hickson, PER = 20.5
LaMarcus Aldridge, PER = 19.5
Nicolas Batum, PER = 18.0
Damian Lillard, PER = 16.6
Wesley Matthews, PER = 15.3

These are the guys playing the closing minutes of close games. And, I like the way Stotts is using them. Instead of predictable ISOs where everyone in the gym knows who is going to take the last shot, the Blazers have multiple options. Batum has hit a couple big game winning/game tying shots, as has Lillard, and Aldridge has at least one as well. This makes it much harder for our opponents to defend the Blazers with the game on the line. They can't simply key on one player. The Blazers may not have one superstar go to guy, but they have multiple guys who can take and make the big shots. I like this versatility, and Stotts play calling takes advantage of it.

Also, the Blazers most likely to have the ball in their hands late in the game are all good free throw shooters. And, that helps win close games.

Nicolas Batum, FT% = .872
Damian Lillard, FT% = .848
LaMarcus Aldridge, FT% = .805

Compare these same metrics to the underachieving Lakers.

Lakers Starters ranked by PER:

Kobe Bryant, PER = 25.6
Dwight Howard, PER = 20.1
Steve Nash, PER = 16.9
Pau Gasol, PER = 14.7
Metta World Peace, PER = 13.7

That's two below average starters, and Nash has only played in 9 games. In his place the Lakers tried starting Steve Blake (PER = 8.9) and Chris Duhon (PER = 9.6) before finally settling on Darius Morris (PER = 7.7)

And when it comes to FTs, Nash is a great FT shooter. He hasn't missed yet this season, but he's only he's only attempted 9 FTs all season. With the ball in Kobe's hands late in the game, Nash is only averaging 1 FTA/G and simply doesn't get the opportunity to get fouled. So, that leaves Kobe and Dwight as the Lakers most likely to get fouled late in the game.

Kobe Bryant, FT% = .847
Dwight Howard, FT% = .508

Kobe is a good FT shooter, but not as good as Batum and on par with Lillard. But, Dwight is an absolute disaster. His poor FT shooting makes him a liability late in close games. So, they don't even look to get him the ball.

Before Nash came back, the Lakers were essentially playing 3-on-5 on offense in close games (with a single digit PER PG and Dwight a liability), and 2 of those 3 are having below average seasons (Pau, PER = 14.7 and Meta, PER = 13.7). Even with Nash back, he doesn't have the ball in his hands enough to make a difference. Nash is great at making average players better. He can create for those who can't create for themselves. But Kobe doesn't need that. He creates for himself and needs the ball in his hands to be effective - which is why Nash is a bad match for Kobe. As good as Kobe is, at the age of 33, he's essentially playing 1-on-5 ISO ball with the game on the line. And, if you look at Kobe's clutch time stats at 82games.com, you'll see he's not getting the job done. He's settling for jump shots and not making them. Check out some of his clutch time stats:

Net Pts: -25
Off: 94.5
Def: 118.4
Net48: -23.9
W: 5
L: 11
Win%: 31.3%

FG%: .359
eFG%: .410

Now, compare that to the Blazers Big 3 when the game is on the line:

Damian Lillard:
Net Pts: +54
Off: 111.1
Def: 78.2
Net48: +33.0
W: 13
L: 4
Win%: 76.5%

FG%: .459
eFG%: 568

Nicolas Batum:
Net Pts: +56
Off: 113.0
Def: 78.2
Net48: +34.8
W: 13
L: 3
Win%: 81.3%

FG%: .423
eFG%: 577

LaMarcus Aldridge:
Net Pts: +46
Off: 107.9
Def: 78.9
Net48: +29.0
W: 11
L: 5
Win%:68.8%

FG%: .459
eFG%: .459

And, that's pretty much why the Blazers are overachieving and the Lakers are underachieving. With the game on the line, the Blazers are a 3-headed monster that is very difficult to stop. With the game on the line, the Lakers are playing 1-on-5 and relying too heavily on an aging superstar who can no longer get it done. I'd hate to be Mike D'Antoni. He's pretty much fucked either way. If he keeps deferring to Kobe with the game on the line, the results won't improve and he'll get fired. If he takes the ball out of Kobe's hands, he'll piss him off and get fired. And, even if he does, he really only has 38-year old Nash to turn to. Nash can create for others, but do you want the ball in the hand's of Dwight Howard (.508 FT%) or Metta World Peace (100% head case) with the game on the line. So, that leaves Nash creating for himself and Pau (whose confidence is shot). So much for the idea of assembling a dynasty by combining 4 future Hall-of-Famers on one roster.

Executive Summary:

With the game on the line, our young guys have been dominant and their old guys have sucked.

BNM

Too long, and the opinions contained in your post are still not facts.

Learn how to be more brief and get your opinion across. Which of the multitude of facts are we supposed to accept as facts that prove your opinion?

 

[Sinobas]

9-2 in close games says alot!

However, this is a very solid starting lineup. Easily a +.500 starting lineup. It's just that our bench sucks so much. I thought before the season started, that this was about a .500 team, factoring in that our weak bench would drag us down some.

Also consider that we've played 3 more games on the road so far.....

 

[MickZagger]

Not great team stats, but a good record can be marked up to good coaching IMO. Their is about 4-5 games that could have gone either way against inferior opponents that we lost, as well.

 

[jlprk]

Looking at these numbers, we have no real business being were we are, except I watched the games and realized something quite interesting. We aren't blowing out teams. We win by low margins... But when we lose, we lose by large margins. The numbers are skew'd because the win/loss ratio aren't measured by the performance of all games. It's measured on a "Per Win/ Per loss" ratio.

http://espn.go.com/nba/standings

The "Diff" column in the standings, when out of order, tells you which teams have stats disproportional to their win record.

Yeah it's a little crazy until I actually looked it up. We have wins against: NY, Houston X2, Chicago, Minny x2, SAS, Denver, Philly, and Memphis.

I vaguely remember that we were lucky that some of those teams had an injured player missing, short-term right when they played us.

 

[magnifier661]

http://espn.go.com/nba/standings

The "Diff" column in the standings, when out of order, tells you which teams have stats disproportional to their win record.



I vaguely remember that we were lucky that some of those teams had an injured player missing, short-term right when they played us.

We had some key injuries with 5 of our losses. Do we get to take them back?