Much love from John Hollinger!

[GeckoDude]

Here's a snip from the ESPN Insider article series John Hollinger just put out.

Outlook

Everybody is sleeping on Portland. For instance, Oklahoma City is the hot team that most pundits project as No. 2 in the West, but compare the two teams: Both won 50 games last season. Both are young, deep and talented. The difference is that last season the Thunder had no significant injuries. None. Meanwhile, the Blazers had everybody get hurt, including the coach; just for good measure, Przybilla blew out his knee twice.

Presuming the injury luck is a bit more evenly distributed this season, one has to like the Blazers' chances of moving back to the top of the Western contender pack. In fact, if Oden stays healthy, they have a chance to outlast the Lakers for the top playoff seed in the conference. I still don't think they can beat L.A. in the playoffs, because the current Blazers roster is much better constructed for the regular season than the postseason, but Portland appears to be the biggest obstacle to a fourth straight Lakers conference title.

Of course, it's foolish to just blithely pencil in Oden for 2,500 minutes. I estimated only 1,200 minutes for Oden, or about 24 a game for 50 games. I was similarly conservative with two other players (Roy and Batum) who missed a lot of time last season. Additionally, I took a little steam out of a very enthusiastic projection for Batum since it was based on a fairly small minutes sample.

Even after accounting for all that, the Blazers rated as the league's fourth-best team, and they can still get better. Portland has $15 million in expiring contracts, two first-round picks, and a disgruntled but tempting wing in Rudy Fernandez. If Cho can parlay some or all of those assets into, say, Chauncey Billups, the Blazers can hang with anybody.

Failing that, the Blazers will still be very good. Even if Oden can't finish the season, Portland has three rising stars in Roy, Aldridge and the rapidly improving Batum. Plus, as last season proved, the Blazers' depth allows them to survive virtually anything the regular season throws at them. This time I suspect they'll be thrown a few more hanging sliders, and finally win a playoff series or two.

Prediction: 55-27, 1st in Northwest Division, 2nd in Western Conference

Probably the most love we're gunna get all pre-season...

and for those of you with insider:

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/trai...=hollinger_john&page=TrailBlazersForecast1011

 

[THE HCP]

Who's John Hollinger?

 

[espn_hall_of_famer]

Here's a snip from the ESPN Insider article series John Hollinger just put out.



Probably the most love we're gunna get all pre-season...

and for those of you with insider:

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/trai...=hollinger_john&page=TrailBlazersForecast1011

Spot on as usual. John, you are repped for that great analysis.

 

[HailBlazers]

Prediction: 55-27, 1st in Northwest Division, 2nd in Western Conference

Bold Prediction, But he is right on target with what should be expected of this squad

 

[illmatic99]

Overall WC predictions by Hollinger:

1. Lakers
2. Blazers
3. Spurs
4. OKC
5. Mavs
6. Jazz
7. Nuggets – TIE
7. Houston – TIE

 

[hasoos]

Overall WC predictions by Hollinger:

Hmmm I am not so sure about that. If and when Carmello leaves, Houston should be better than Denver, and I would even guess that New Orleans would be better than Denver.

 

[Wizard Mentor]

Where'd the other 1st rounder come from?

 

[Ed O]

Who's John Hollinger?

Really?

He used to handle the Blazers on Oregonlive.com and he's reinvented the way that stats are consumed (by fans, at least) in the NBA.

Ed O.

 

[THE HCP]

Really?

He used to handle the Blazers on Oregonlive.com and he's reinvented the way that stats are consumed (by fans, at least) in the NBA.

Ed O.

I'm joking you nerd! Ed, you shouldn't be drinking this early!

 

[Ed O]

I'm joking you nerd! Ed, you shouldn't be drinking this early!

Well... sometimes you have cultural blind spots.

Ed O.

 

[BlazerCaravan]

Spot on as usual. John, you are repped for that great analysis.

LOL! Repped!

 

[DeanMoriarty]

Thanks for the link, Trevor.


And I can't help but feel Hollinger has read this thread.

 

[HailBlazers]

or commented.......

 

[BrianFromWA]

agreed with much of the article. I especially liked how the projection was made with 24 mpg for 50 games for Oden, and Batum's being dialed back due to small sample size. So WITH TWEAKS DOWNWARD, we're the 4th best team in the projections.

And just to stir the pot, I'll highlight another one of the opinions:

The one disadvantage of McMillan's system, however, is that it appears awfully predictable in the playoffs. At times the Blazers seem to have only two plays -- a high pick-and-roll for Roy and a post-up for Aldridge -- while the secondary players wait their turn for a catch-and-shoot or an offensive rebound.

While it's an effective way to get off a bunch of shots in the regular season, prepared opponents seem to bottle it up fairly easily come spring. The Blazers' offense has underachieved in the postseason each of the past two seasons, and while last season can be partly excused given Roy's knee injury, it's telling that the most similar club stylistically (Atlanta) has had similar trouble in the postseason.

The Blazers should have a lot more weapons at their disposal now, especially if Oden is healthy. While varying the offense may take their performance down a notch in the regular season, it could boost their performance in the playoffs.

I think that getting Miller out sooner rather than later and getting the new PG in to learn the offense and take some lumps early will do exactly what the last line was talking about.

 

[Eastoff]

Spot on as usual. John, you are repped for that great analysis.

You would say that... wouldn't you?

 

[Nhawz]

Spot on as usual. John, you are repped for that great analysis.

I thought u were John Hollinger

 

[espn_hall_of_famer]

I thought u were John Hollinger

And I thought you were a hot soccer mom.

 

[MickZagger]

And I thought you were a hot soccer mom.

John, you don't gotta lie to kick it.

 

[BGrantFan]

John, you don't gotta lie to kick it.

No offense, but ESPN_Hall_of_Famer can't possibly be John Hollinger. That he pretends to be is hilarious, though.

 

[MickZagger]

No offense, but ESPN_Hall_of_Famer can't possibly be John Hollinger. That he pretends to be is hilarious, though.

Funny. I always thought by the way you act around here that you were truly a member of the Vulcans.

 

[BGrantFan]

Funny. I always thought by the way you act around here that you were truly a member of the Vulcans.

I'm Bert Kolde. Paul allows me to have fun once in a while.

 

[MIXUM]

you can basically throw this article out. it is all around oden. now that we know hes out till 2011...at best... time to bring back expectations to 7th seed

 

[Weav]

you can basically throw this article out. it is all around oden. now that we know hes out till 2011...at best... time to bring back expectations to 7th seed

So if Oden returns at all in 2010, you'll agree to leave S2 forever?

 

[MIXUM]

weav... learn how to read between the lines

 

[Weav]

weav... learn how to read between the lines

That's a 'no'...sorry guys, I tried

 

[MIXUM]

how this bet? if oden gets hurt this season... you can never post here again????

 

[Weav]

I only stop lurking to point out what a broken record you are....I would stop posting if Oden doesn't play until 2011, but who cares about that? I've only got 80 posts, homey...

 

[MIXUM]

a broken record who was right bout kpee and right about brok-den

 

[XXPrimusXX]

a broken clock who was right bout kpee and right about brok-den

Fixed.