NBA.com: Blazers a True Contender

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blazerkor said:
This is foolhardy stuff guys. LeBron is still incredibly dominant and is adapting his game as his insane athleticism is turning into just sane but still very scary athleticism. I don't know if anyone can be a better passer than he's been but he is becoming more committed to passing, that only makes him more dangerous. Like Dame's three, the fact that LeBron can set someone up to score easily at any moment makes it harder for the opposing defense to sell out on trying to stop his scoring at or near the hoop, that's why his efficiency is so good... and by the way you're allowed to barrel into opposing defenders if they don't get their feet set and you don't lower your shoulder. There are some perks to being as massive as LeBron is. You were right to say that AD is a beast.

As far as the changes they made go, those changes obviously made them better. Schroder is an obvious upgrade over Rondo, he's just more athletic and more involved in the game than Rondo could be last season. Opinions on Harrell differ but to say that he won't have more of an impact than Dwight Howard at this stage of his career makes me think you haven't been watching either of the guys play. The Lakers can look for improvements from Kuzma. They get great shooting and effort off the bench from Wes. They will still have KCP who is the exact kind of guard that LeBron and AD need playing with them. Hell, I'm not counting Marc Gasol out, he could have just as shocking of a comeback year for them as Howard did last year. The fact is they will be better this season, like it or not. They are the prohibitive favorites.

That being said, I really like what we've done and last season the experts said we were the scariest team for them and they didn't actually have to face us. Well this season, hopefully in the WCF they will have to face us and we are a very similar team accept this time we've upgraded our defense and we've seriously gotten deeper. So all though I see this Lakers squad as historically good. I think we could shock some people and beat them in a very competitive series.
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LeBron will be playing his 18th season. He has never played a season with such a quick turnaround. Yes it is possible he is just as dominant next season. But its certainly possible he declines. Father time is undefeated and will get him eventually. Might be next season or 5 years from now but it will happen.
 
Scalma said:
• The Blazers the most efficient offense (112.4 points scored per 100 possessions in 24 games) against the league's top 10 defenses.

• The Blazers saw the league's biggest jump in points allowed per 100 possessions, from 109.5 (16th) in 2018-19 to 114.3 (27th) in '19-20.
https://www.nba.com/news/offseason-power-rankings-western-conference

Pretty simple formula. Get that defense to even average and you’re looking at a contender.
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And for once there’s no reason why they shouldn’t be in the top half of the leafy defensively.
 
e_blazer said:
And for once there’s no reason why they shouldn’t be in the top half of the leafy defensively.
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if they stay relatively healthy and aren’t in the top 15 somewhere, there should be serious questions about Stotts’ job.
 
Rastapopoulos said:
And much as I moaned and bitched about Whiteside, we might miss his shotblocking, something we're be relying on Jones Jr for?
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I think you miss that from Whiteside as a starter. Coming off the bench, not so much, because he generally seemed unmotivated and also his desire to get blocks in his short amount of time on the court resulted in being out of position and creating more defensive problems than he solved.

He's a guy whose value as a starter and as a reserve are about as different as any player currently in the NBA.

And Jones is more a guy we're looking to contest and defend on the perimeter. His insane hops make him a guy who can erase someone at the rim from behind if Kanter/Giles/etc. holds position on the block and forces anything other than a dunk, but Jones' value is recovering and contesting 3s.
 
e_blazer said:
For those of you who are really irritated by the notion that someone considers the Blazers to be a "true contender", this might brighten your day. John Schuhmann at nba.com only has the Blazers at 5th in the West in his Offseason Power Ranking piece:

https://www.nba.com/news/offseason-power-rankings-western-conference
Click to expand...

I think it's realistic to put lakers-clippers-nuggets 1-2-3

after that, between Portland, Utah, & Dallas, I'd probably rate the Blazers at least 4th, assuming good health.

but there are several 'spoiler' teams that will make life tough for wannabe contenders: Warriors, Suns, & Rockets. Memphis and New Orleans won't be pushovers either. West is a gauntlet
 
Scalma said:
if they stay relatively healthy and aren’t in the top 15 somewhere, there should be serious questions about Stotts’ job.
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When we had RoLo, we were Top 6 defense under Stotts.
 
KSF-ERIC said:
When we had RoLo, we were Top 6 defense under Stotts.
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when was that?

Rolo was a Blazer for 2 seasons and according to bbref, Portland ranked 16th and 10th in defensive rating

but the Blazers were solid defensively at 4 starting positions. Dame was the only weak spot. Now it's both guards as weak spots
 
Honestly it wouldn't shock me if any of Lakers, Clippers, Blazers, Nuggets, Jazz get the #1 seed or fall out of HCA.

Lakers might be favorites but teams usually have a letdown after winning the title, not to mention the short offseason, and have to work in some major new role players.

Clippers had terrible chemistry and rest Kawhi so again a bit of a wild card with downside. Harrel was really a key on that bench in the regular season who is now gone. But when clicking they were awesome at times last year which seems to now be overlooked.

Blazers have some new changes which might take longer then expected to get the offense and defense improved. But if it works right they are deep which could give them the best regular season west record even if a few other teams have superior 8 men lineups in the postseason.

Nuggets are still young and could see Jokic, Murry slightly improve, and a huge improvement from Porter. On the downside they might miss Grant and Plumlee more than expected, plus Millsap could decline being 35.

Jazz should have Bogdanovic back, added Favors to give them a great 48 minute center rotation, and Mitchell really took a postseason leap. If Mitchell can do that over the regular season they have enough role players and defense to be a somewhat boring but effective #1 seed.

Dallas might have the best regular season player next year but starting without Porzingis and losing Curry I don't think they can get to #1.
 
e_blazer said:
For those of you who are really irritated by the notion that someone considers the Blazers to be a "true contender", this might brighten your day. John Schuhmann at nba.com only has the Blazers at 5th in the West in his Offseason Power Ranking piece:

https://www.nba.com/news/offseason-power-rankings-western-conference
Click to expand...

Who was irritated? It just seems like at least a legitimate query comparing being top 4 in a conference to being a legitimate contender. That 8 teams were listed as 'contender' status also seems out of the norm as I can't remember a season where there have been more than 5-6 in a long time.

Thought Schuhmann made very good points, both pro and con.
 
TBpup said:
Who was irritated? It just seems like at least a legitimate query comparing being top 4 in a conference to being a legitimate contender. That 8 teams were listed as 'contender' status also seems out of the norm as I can't remember a season where there have been more than 5-6 in a long time.
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Just giving you guys a little static. Sometimes it cracks me up how quickly guys respond to things like that. Kind of feels like people are incensed. “How dare they say something positive about the Blazers? We’re not perfect yet.”
 
e_blazer said:
Just giving you guys a little static. Sometimes it cracks me up how quickly guys respond to things like that. Kind of feels like people are incensed. “How dare they say something positive about the Blazers? We’re not perfect yet.”
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Some very good things were done this off-season. If they can combine the influx of talen with a healthy season, this team should be massively improved.....as it seems they should be. Their defense should be better although they did lose probably their best defender from last season in Ariza. DJJ and Covington will help a lot but those two combined are historically not good 3-point shooters which may offset some of the impact of the D. Hood being back as close to healthy as possible will also be a big help.

Rebounding should be better, but will it be enough better from the very poor level they were at last year?

...and then there is still the lack of a playmaker outside of Dame once the traps come. That hasn't been addressed at all.

So I do expect them to be better....but that 'better' is better than a team who needed Dame to go on a historic tear just to be the #8 seed in a play in game against Memphis who was missing one of their best players. They should be up to 4-6 just with health. Then how much of an impact the additions make will determine how much higher they get and if they can become the true contender we all hope they can.
 
Nah.

The NBA is a star driven league. Very few times, if any, can your best player be pg and contend
 
tlongII said:
James Harden?
Magic Johnson?
Steph Curry?
Isiah Thomas?
Click to expand...
Harden not a pg
Magic was not the best player
Curry yes without KD
Zeke.......yes


So a few seasons with both surrounded by hall of famers
 
TBpup said:
Some very good things were done this off-season. If they can combine the influx of talen with a healthy season, this team should be massively improved.....as it seems they should be. Their defense should be better although they did lose probably their best defender from last season in Ariza. DJJ and Covington will help a lot but those two combined are historically not good 3-point shooters which may offset some of the impact of the D. Hood being back as close to healthy as possible will also be a big help.

Rebounding should be better, but will it be enough better from the very poor level they were at last year?

...and then there is still the lack of a playmaker outside of Dame once the traps come. That hasn't been addressed at all.

So I do expect them to be better....but that 'better' is better than a team who needed Dame to go on a historic tear just to be the #8 seed in a play in game against Memphis who was missing one of their best players. They should be up to 4-6 just with health. Then how much of an impact the additions make will determine how much higher they get and if they can become the true contender we all hope they can.
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So the first thing to address is that RoCo is a huge upgrade over Ariza. He's a much better defender and their career three point percentage is virtually identical... last season Ariza feasted on open looks that Dame got him and RoCo had to play on the Houston Clusterfucks. You left out a healthy Nurk which was the biggest difference between going from a 3 seed to barely making the 8th seed. Then you kind of mentioned the depth but that was incredibly understated. Lets say Jones starts like I think he will (I also think he'll shoot the three well) that leaves us with Gary, Hood, Zach (when healthy), Melo and Kanter... that's a ton of legit rotation players.

You are right that we have to solve the Dame trap problem but all that has to happen is that CJ or Nurk... whichever Dame passes out to, have to drill making quick decisive moves to score if they are open or if they are covered finding the open guy. That's all there is to it. Obviously CJ can't camp at half court as Dame's outlet and that means Dame needs to also drill getting the ball out of that trap to an effective position on the floor. I really think we'll have that solved on December 22. We will have Jones and RoCo to trap Dame in practice starting next week... I have faith in our guys to finally fix this.
 
Mediocre Man said:
Harden not a pg
Magic was not the best player
Curry yes without KD
Zeke.......yes


So a few seasons with both surrounded by hall of famers
Click to expand...
Wait, wait, wait... Magic wasn't the Lakers best player?!? In what universe was Kareem still better than Magic in 85', 87' and 88'. Magic wasn't only the best player on the Lakers in 87' he was the NBA MVP. Oh and until last season when he split possessions with Westbrook, Harden has been bringing the ball up and running the point for the Rockets for years now. Oh and if you want to argue that Jordan did the same thing, you'll only be shooting yourself in the foot because for all intents and purposes Jordan played point for the majority of his career too.
 
TBpup said:
Some very good things were done this off-season. If they can combine the influx of talen with a healthy season, this team should be massively improved.....as it seems they should be. Their defense should be better although they did lose probably their best defender from last season in Ariza. DJJ and Covington will help a lot but those two combined are historically not good 3-point shooters which may offset some of the impact of the D. Hood being back as close to healthy as possible will also be a big help.

Rebounding should be better, but will it be enough better from the very poor level they were at last year?

...and then there is still the lack of a playmaker outside of Dame once the traps come. That hasn't been addressed at all.

So I do expect them to be better....but that 'better' is better than a team who needed Dame to go on a historic tear just to be the #8 seed in a play in game against Memphis who was missing one of their best players. They should be up to 4-6 just with health. Then how much of an impact the additions make will determine how much higher they get and if they can become the true contender we all hope they can.
Click to expand...
Nurk and CJ are playmakers. When we had Plumlee, his playmaking was very helpful (see 2015 vs Clippers) so hopefully, we go to Nurkic more this year.
 
wizenheimer said:
when was that?

Rolo was a Blazer for 2 seasons and according to bbref, Portland ranked 16th and 10th in defensive rating

but the Blazers were solid defensively at 4 starting positions. Dame was the only weak spot. Now it's both guards as weak spots
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Don't forget we had Lamarcus who played the softest defense, never boxed out, and was fed most of his rebounds by perfect Rolo box outs.
 
GaryTrentSupporter said:
Don't forget we had Lamarcus who played the softest defense, never boxed out, and was fed most of his rebounds by perfect Rolo box outs.
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Aldridge was a pretty good man defender, and he rotated fairly well because of his mobility

where Aldridge looked bad, and so did Rolo or any other Blazer big, was in that passive hybrid ICE P-n-R defense Stotts favored at the time. That had all the bigs hedging heavily toward the basket at every pick and screen. That left the Blazer guards, and often Batum, on islands trying to defend the ball-handler and the screener. Stotts even defended his defense by talking about how they were trying to bait teams into taking mid-range shots, which were supposed to be the least efficient. But that defense gave shooters space in the shorter mid-range areas, and those shots were higher efficiency. Worse is that defense started off by conceding initiative to the opposing offense. It allowed the opponents momentum at the beginning of possessions, and left the Blazer defense reacting instead of attacking

Stotts apparently love passive defense. His teams don't attack ball movement and they don't attack passing lanes. Here's where his 8 Blazer teams have ranked in forcing turnovers:

2012-13 - 28th
2013-14 - 30th
2014-15 - 30th
2015-16 - 25th
2016-17 - 26th
2017-18 - 29th
2018-19 - 29th
2019-20 - 27th

that's passive defense.

and it's a big reason why I'm worried that Stotts will not be able to take full advantage of the defensive strengths of Covington and Jones. Those are the kind of defenders that can attack an offense. But if they are coached to wait for the offense to make a mistake instead of attacking it, their skills won't be maximized
 
blazerkor said:
This is foolhardy stuff guys. LeBron is still incredibly dominant and is adapting his game as his insane athleticism is turning into just sane but still very scary athleticism. I don't know if anyone can be a better passer than he's been but he is becoming more committed to passing, that only makes him more dangerous. Like Dame's three, the fact that LeBron can set someone up to score easily at any moment makes it harder for the opposing defense to sell out on trying to stop his scoring at or near the hoop, that's why his efficiency is so good... and by the way you're allowed to barrel into opposing defenders if they don't get their feet set and you don't lower your shoulder. There are some perks to being as massive as LeBron is. You were right to say that AD is a beast.

As far as the changes they made go, those changes obviously made them better. Schroder is an obvious upgrade over Rondo, he's just more athletic and more involved in the game than Rondo could be last season. Opinions on Harrell differ but to say that he won't have more of an impact than Dwight Howard at this stage of his career makes me think you haven't been watching either of the guys play. The Lakers can look for improvements from Kuzma. They get great shooting and effort off the bench from Wes. They will still have KCP who is the exact kind of guard that LeBron and AD need playing with them. Hell, I'm not counting Marc Gasol out, he could have just as shocking of a comeback year for them as Howard did last year. The fact is they will be better this season, like it or not. They are the prohibitive favorites.

That being said, I really like what we've done and last season the experts said we were the scariest team for them and they didn't actually have to face us. Well this season, hopefully in the WCF they will have to face us and we are a very similar team accept this time we've upgraded our defense and we've seriously gotten deeper. So all though I see this Lakers squad as historically good. I think we could shock some people and beat them in a very competitive series.
Click to expand...

I just looked at some of the NBA guys in LeBron's recruiting class

Luol Deng
Kendrick Perkins
Charlie Villanueva
Brandon Bass
Travis Outlaw
Kris Humphries
Von Wafer
Ronnie Brewer
Aaron Brooks

Its seems so long ago that any of these guys contributed in the NBA. Its really amazing how long of a career LeBron has had, I don't know we'll ever see anything like it again.

Kareem was probably the longest playing star player ever, averaging 17/6 in his 18th season and lasted for two more years declining to 14ppg then 10ppg.

Now if you look at the 2003 rookie class there are even more guys long out of the league;
Kirk Hinrich
Chris Kaman
Nick Collison
Luke Ridnour
David West
Sasha Pavlovic
Boris Diaw
Brian Cook
Leandro Barbosa
Josh Howard
Luke Walton
Steve Blake
Matt Bonner
James Jones
Mo Williams
 
WesleyMatthews said:
I just looked at some of the NBA guys in LeBron's recruiting class

Luol Deng
Kendrick Perkins
Charlie Villanueva
Brandon Bass
Travis Outlaw
Kris Humphries
Von Wafer
Ronnie Brewer
Aaron Brooks

Its seems so long ago that any of these guys contributed in the NBA. Its really amazing how long of a career LeBron has had, I don't know we'll ever see anything like it again.

Kareem was probably the longest playing star player ever, averaging 17/6 in his 18th season and lasted for two more years declining to 14ppg then 10ppg.

Now if you look at the 2003 rookie class there are even more guys long out of the league;
Kirk Hinrich
Chris Kaman
Nick Collison
Luke Ridnour
David West
Sasha Pavlovic
Boris Diaw
Brian Cook
Leandro Barbosa
Josh Howard
Luke Walton
Steve Blake
Matt Bonner
James Jones
Mo Williams
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Man, I feel old.
 
I really hope the media counts us out early....makes me know the NBA is still the NBA....what I really want is for us to buy more refs damnit!
 
Tince said:
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That statistical model they're using... whatever the algorithm is seems fucked up. They have NOLA making a ten win jump after losing Jrue... you don't lose Jrue, replace him with Bledsoe and win ten more games by expecting that much growth out of Zion and Ingram... I just don't know how the RPM numbers would come up with that. They do point out that everything is really close. They do have the second seed Clippers only 3.5 games ahead of us... which is another anomaly I can't respect. Teams will fall short of RPM expectations because of non statistical factors. Coaching, cohesiveness of rotations and other non-numerical factors are very important. The talent and numbers might be this close in the West this season but the records just won't be. Teams will separate themselves. There is no chance that the Lakers will only be a 44 win team, when they won 52 last season in one less game... that's also a very unrealistic swing.

I will say this, if we miss the playoffs or just make it and take another first round exit Neil, Terry, CJ and most likely a bunch of other guys from this very deep team will not start next season as Blazers. Here's the article for anyone that wants to see the reasoning behind that tweet.

https://www.espn.com/basketball/sto...iew-wins-standings-projected-all-30-nba-teams
 
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