NBA comps for draft picks

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Do you have a personal connection to Jabari? You're getting emotional...

Nah I agree that that's a ridiculous comment. Players can learn how to handle the ball and attack off the dribble. He's still extremely young. Being able to shoot the way he does off the dribble will make it easier for him to attack off the dribble and Auburn's lack of spacing didn't make things easier on him to create himself.
I remember watching video’s of Bam’s workout for us and he was hitting everything from long range and moved really well and had a great attitude/persona.
I was hoping we drafted him, well you know the rest of the story.
 
You mock me, but now I will

WABC. Just stop with them in the lottery. If he’s FINALLY the exception, then great for whoever drafts him
Correlation doesn't equal causation. Not drafting a basketball player because of a race-based correlation that has nothing to do with him being a good or bad basketball player is as ridiculous as it gets.
 
Correlation doesn't equal causation. Not drafting a basketball player because of a race-based correlation that has nothing to do with him being a good or bad basketball player is as ridiculous as it gets.
Frank Kaminsky
Cody Zeller
Kelly Olynyk
Meyers Leonard
Cole Aldrich
Spencer Hawes
Robert Swift
Chris Kaman
Chris Mihm
Joel Przybilla


Those are the WABC drafted in the lottery going back to 2000. Chris Kaman averaged over 15 ppg twice and double figure rebounds once

the lottery itself is a total crap shoot, but would you honestly be happy with the Blazers if they took any of those guys with a lottery pick?

WABC and guys from Syracuse are lottery poison. THAT quote is from an NBA exec
 
Frank Kaminsky
Cody Zeller
Kelly Olynyk
Meyers Leonard
Cole Aldrich
Spencer Hawes
Robert Swift
Chris Kaman
Chris Mihm
Joel Przybilla


Those are the WABC drafted in the lottery going back to 2000. Chris Kaman averaged over 15 ppg twice and double figure rebounds once

the lottery itself is a total crap shoot, but would you honestly be happy with the Blazers if they took any of those guys with a lottery pick?

WABC and guys from Syracuse are lottery poison. THAT quote is from an NBA exec
You forgot Zach Collins.
 
Yes, it is. You changed from “an all star or superstar” in your initial take to “superstar/‘consistent’ all star” lol. Like if he plays 15 years and makes 6 all star teams, is he a ‘consistent’ all star?

I took your initial take for what you literally wrote: he won’t be an all star, even one time. I’m not gonna grill you for being skeptical that he’ll be a superstar, cause no one really knows. But it is a little ridiculous to think he’ll never learn to do anything else than shoot 3s before he even turns 19. Kawhi was strictly a defense-first guy for like 4 years.

But whatever, we’ll agree to disagree on Smith.
I threw “consistent” all star in there because wasn’t Wiggins an all star starter this year? Julius Randle last year? And then with “injury replacements” things can happen.

Here’s what I should’ve said: I don’t see the guy make the All NBA team, which is probably a better measurement than “all star” anyway.

and I didn’t say he wouldn’t learn to do anything but shoot 3s. I literally just said he could be a good or even very good player. I don’t see him as all NBA caliber.
 
Glad you enjoy the streams!

I wouldn't feel comfortable taking one at 11 or 12 because I feel like we could trade down, gain more assets, and still land a solid center. Whether that's into the late teens for Koloko/Williams or late 20s for Robinson or Nzosa. I'd be more okay with teaching for a C at 11 if we had an obvious need there but with how many good forwards there are, is want to take a chance on one of them with the hope that they could grow into a starting role over the next couple of years.
Who are 3 guys that project to be available around the number 11 pick that you would take (in order of your preference)?
 
Frank Kaminsky
Cody Zeller
Kelly Olynyk
Meyers Leonard
Cole Aldrich
Spencer Hawes
Robert Swift
Chris Kaman
Chris Mihm
Joel Przybilla


Those are the WABC drafted in the lottery going back to 2000. Chris Kaman averaged over 15 ppg twice and double figure rebounds once

the lottery itself is a total crap shoot, but would you honestly be happy with the Blazers if they took any of those guys with a lottery pick?

WABC and guys from Syracuse are lottery poison. THAT quote is from an NBA exec

You know what else many(most?) of those guys had in common? They were only basketball players because they were 7' tall. I look at a 7' player and ask - if this guy was 6" shorter, would he still be an NBA prospect? If the idea makes you laugh, don't use a high draft pick on the guy. (and yes, there are exceptions to any rule)
 
Frank Kaminsky
Cody Zeller
Kelly Olynyk
Meyers Leonard
Cole Aldrich
Spencer Hawes
Robert Swift
Chris Kaman
Chris Mihm
Joel Przybilla


Those are the WABC drafted in the lottery going back to 2000. Chris Kaman averaged over 15 ppg twice and double figure rebounds once

the lottery itself is a total crap shoot, but would you honestly be happy with the Blazers if they took any of those guys with a lottery pick?

WABC and guys from Syracuse are lottery poison. THAT quote is from an NBA exec
this is damning.
 
I don't think it's necessarily White or American Born. I think the truly damning point is the CENTER. These all guys who can play C who have been drafted in the lottery the past ten years. I've bolded the guys who AREN'T busts (imo, ymmv). 10 out of 30 guys selected were either worthy of the high draft selection or out-performed it. That's a pretty paltry number. Obviously still some younigns on this list who could develop, but this is a snapshot.

What I notice is the extremely HIGH variance.

The 2016 draft especially had some colossal busts. Bender's skillset is fairly comparable to Holmgren's, but he was also 30 lbs heavier than Chet coming in to the draft.

2012:
Anthony Davis
Meyers Leonard
John Henson

2013:
Cody Zeller
Alex Len
Nerlens Noel
Steven Adams
Kelly Olynyk

2014:
Joel Embiid

2015:
Karl-Anthony Towns
Jahlil Okafor
Wiley Cauley-Stein
Frank Kaminsky
Myles Turner

2016:
Dragan Bender
Marquese Chriss
Jakob Poeltl
Thon Maker
Domantas Sabonis
Georgios Papagiannis

2017:
Zach Collins
Bam Adebayo

2018:
DeAndre Ayton
Marvin Bagley
Mo Bamba
Wendell Carter Jr.

2019:
Jaxon Hayes

2020:
James Wiseman
Onyeka Okongwu

2021:
Evan Mobley

In conclusion.... don't draft Centers in the lottery. I wanna see if we can do a similar analysis for other positions.
 
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You know what else many(most?) of those guys had in common? They were only basketball players because they were 7' tall. I look at a 7' player and ask - if this guy was 6" shorter, would he still be an NBA prospect? If the idea makes you laugh, don't use a high draft pick on the guy. (and yes, there are exceptions to any rule)
I honestly think the reason Bigs from over seas are better is because they play soccer
 
Frank Kaminsky
Cody Zeller
Kelly Olynyk
Meyers Leonard
Cole Aldrich
Spencer Hawes
Robert Swift
Chris Kaman
Chris Mihm
Joel Przybilla


Those are the WABC drafted in the lottery going back to 2000. Chris Kaman averaged over 15 ppg twice and double figure rebounds once

the lottery itself is a total crap shoot, but would you honestly be happy with the Blazers if they took any of those guys with a lottery pick?

WABC and guys from Syracuse are lottery poison. THAT quote is from an NBA exec
Hm, so none of since 2013? None of whom were as touted or projected as highly as Chet? None of those guys are remotely CLOSE to having the blend of skillset, agility, length, and shot-blocking as Chet. Chet isn't like those guys as a basketball player. But you're so hung up on skin pigmentation that you fail to see that.
 
Who are 3 guys that project to be available around the number 11 pick that you would take (in order of your preference)?
Depends on what we do with the 1st Pick but probably Dyson Daniels, Jalen Duren, Tari Eason, Ochai Agbaji, Jeremy Sochan. Mathurin if he's there but I don't think he will be.
 
I don't think it's necessarily White or American Born. I think the truly damning point is the CENTER. These all guys who can play C who have been drafted in the lottery the past ten years. I've bolded the guys who AREN'T busts (imo, ymmv). 10 out of 30 guys selected were either worthy of the high draft selection or out-performed it. That's a pretty paltry number. Obviously still some younigns on this list who could develop, but this is a snapshot.

What I notice is the extremely HIGH variance.

The 2016 draft especially had some colossal busts. Bender's skillset is fairly comparable to Holmgren's, but he was also 30 lbs heavier than Chet coming in to the draft.

2012:
Anthony Davis
Meyers Leonard
John Henson

2013:
Cody Zeller
Alex Len
Nerlens Noel
Steven Adams
Kelly Olynyk

2014:
Joel Embiid

2015:
Karl-Anthony Towns
Jahlil Okafor
Wiley Cauley-Stein
Frank Kaminsky
Myles Turner

2016:
Dragan Bender
Marquese Chriss
Jakob Poeltl
Thon Maker
Domantas Sabonis
Georgios Papagiannis

2017:
Zach Collins
Bam Adebayo

2018:
DeAndre Ayton
Marvin Bagley
Mo Bamba
Wendell Carter Jr.

2019:
Jaxon Hayes

2020:
James Wiseman
Onyeka Okongwu

2021:
Evan Mobley

In conclusion.... don't draft Centers in the lottery. I wanna see if we can do a similar analysis for other positions.
The ones that aren't busts seem to be able to do two of the following things well or be absolutely elite in one of them:
Pass
Shoot
Protect the rim

The only outliers would be Steven Adams (taken in the late lotto, still just a role player) and DeAndre Ayton (#1 pick, doesn't seem like he'll reach all-star status.

Many of the busts don't do two of things things noticeably well and aren't elite at any one.

Chet should be elite rim protector and has a chance at being an elite shooting 5 and good passer. He needs to add strength for that position but that's why I see him as a 4 for his first couple of seasons.
 
Hm, so none of since 2013? None of whom were as touted or projected as highly as Chet? None of those guys are remotely CLOSE to having the blend of skillset, agility, length, and shot-blocking as Chet. Chet isn't like those guys as a basketball player. But you're so hung up on skin pigmentation that you fail to see that.
I see facts and history.
Again, if he so happens to finally be the exception and not just another rule then good on him and the team that takes him.
 
The one reason I would want Chet is because I don’t really think Nurk is all that great. The Blazers have Nurk until Chet actually becomes NBA ready. I just don’t think he’s quite there yet. I feel Chet needs another year to fill out and get up to speed. If the Blazers somehow get a chance and actually pick Chet Holmgren I’m good with that.
 
How exactly does a comparison between the WCC and Pac-12 have any bearing on people's questions about the quality of Chet Holmgren's competition?
The WCC offered very good competition this year, thats a fact. Someone making a fool of themselves was throwing the conference name out there trying to put down Chet... hope that helps you understand.

STOMP
 
The WCC offered very good competition this year, thats a fact. Someone making a fool of themselves was throwing the conference name out there trying to put down Chet... hope that helps you understand.

STOMP

OK, so you were making an entirely moot point. Thanks for clarifying. Have a nice day.
 
The one reason I would want Chet is because I don’t really think Nurk is all that great. The Blazers have Nurk until Chet actually becomes NBA ready. I just don’t think he’s quite there yet. I feel Chet needs another year to fill out and get up to speed. If the Blazers somehow get a chance and actually pick Chet Holmgren I’m good with that.
I can see where you’re coming from. But let’s just assume the safe guess that we stay put in the lottery and aren’t in position to draft him—there’s about 3-5 centers that will go after Holmgren, Duren, and Williams, probably at least one of them will slip into the 2nd.

Orlando Robinson: his skillset reminds me of KAT’s. 6’11 with a 7’4 wingspan and moves pretty well. Maybe his defense develops under Chauncey. Junior—so that may be a reason for falling past 37 if it happens.

Yannick Nzosa: international prospect. Right now, he is pretty much a pure athlete and defensive specialist and can really run the floor. 6’11 with a 7’6 wingspan with a chance to really be special on defense. He reminds me of early OKC Ibaka pre-jumpshot, I’ve seen Capela as a comp as well.

Christian Koloko: rim protector. 7-1 with a 7-4 wingspan. Played 3 years at Arizona so he can probably contribute sooner than we’d think.

Even Kessler and Tshiebwe are intriguing. I would skip on C’s in the lotto and just focus on drafting the two best wings at our position.

I’ve been on the ‘bring Jalen Smith here’ bandwagon since post trade deadline. I think a C rotation of Nurkic/Johnson/#36 (and you can include Brown as an undersized C) is a diverse core at. Smith is young enough that you still prioritize his development, but our third string center will get minutes whenever Nurkic is injured. A rotation of Nurkic/Duren/___ (still assuming we’re not in position to get Holmgren) will probably be better than, say, Nurkic/Johnson/Nzosa. But consider where we’d be picking with a number of wings on the board, I’d say Nurkic/Johnson/Nzosa is more worth it for its price.

And right now, besides TJ Warren, I don’t know any other forwards I’d give the MLE to—and I don’t necessarily think he’d be a good fit on the team. I’d be interested in Smith, Bamba, and Ibaka though. So free agency also steers me in the direction of not drafting a C in the lotto.
 
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The one reason I would want Chet is because I don’t really think Nurk is all that great. The Blazers have Nurk until Chet actually becomes NBA ready. I just don’t think he’s quite there yet. I feel Chet needs another year to fill out and get up to speed. If the Blazers somehow get a chance and actually pick Chet Holmgren I’m good with that.

Chet needs more than a year to "fill out"--but again KD was said to be too skinny for the NBA game and he turned out fine.
 
I can see where you’re coming from. But let’s just assume the safe guess that we stay put in the lottery and aren’t in position to draft him—there’s about 3-5 centers that will go after Holmgren, Duren, and Williams, probably at least one of them will slip into the 2nd.

Orlando Robinson: his skillset reminds me of KAT’s. 6’11 with a 7’4 wingspan and moves pretty well. Maybe his defense develops under Chauncey. Junior—so that may be a reason for falling past 37 if it happens.

Yannick Nzosa: international prospect. Right now, he is pretty much a pure athlete and defensive specialist and can really run the floor. 6’11 with a 7’6 wingspan with a chance to really be special on defense. He reminds me of early OKC Ibaka pre-jumpshot, I’ve seen Capela as a comp as well.

Christian Koloko: rim protector. 7-1 with a 7-4 wingspan. Played 3 years at Arizona so he can probably contribute sooner than we’d think.

Even Kessler and Tshiebwe are intriguing. I would skip on C’s in the lotto and just focus on drafting the two best wings at our position.

I’ve been on the ‘bring Jalen Smith here’ bandwagon since post trade deadline. I think a C rotation of Nurkic/Johnson/#36 (and you can include Brown as an undersized C) is a diverse core at. Smith is young enough that you still prioritize his development, but our third string center will get minutes whenever Nurkic is injured. A rotation of Nurkic/Duren/___ (still assuming we’re not in position to get Holmgren) will probably be better than, say, Nurkic/Johnson/Nzosa. But consider where we’d be picking with a number of wings on the board, I’d say Nurkic/Johnson/Nzosa is more worth it for its price.

And right now, besides TJ Warren, I don’t know any other forwards I’d give the MLE to—and I don’t necessarily think he’d be a good fit on the team. I’d be interested in Smith, Bamba, and Ibaka though. So free agency also steers me in the direction of not drafting a C in the lotto.
I'd be good with getting Chet but yeah i can see others that might be just as effective.
Duren is said to be weak on screens and that will be a problem with Dame.
Williams obviously doesn't shoot the three. That also might be a huge problem?
Nzosa I'm reading up on but everything says project who will need a lot of work. Boy could that be a huge get in the second round?
Koloko will be 22 and might be a bit more ready to bang with the Players in the NBA. Obviously not a three point shooter either.

What i agree with most on your post is
I would skip on C’s in the lotto and just focus on drafting the two best wings at our position.

I always think it's best to take the best player available no matter who we have.
 
Chet needs more than a year to "fill out"--but again KD was said to be too skinny for the NBA game and he turned out fine.
Sometimes those skinny dudes are strong and durable.
 
Chet needs more than a year to "fill out"--but again KD was said to be too skinny for the NBA game and he turned out fine.

That is certainly true. I would point out, however, that KD actually spent his rookie year playing SG. He had the quickness and skills to compensate for his lack of NBA level strength. That is pretty rare. Holmgren doesn't have that kind of versatility.
 
That is certainly true. I would point out, however, that KD actually spent his rookie year playing SG. He had the quickness and skills to compensate for his lack of NBA level strength. That is pretty rare. Holmgren doesn't have that kind of versatility.
I cant believe people are still making that lazy ass comp.
 
I cant believe people are still making that lazy ass comp.
Like Durant isn't one of the most elite athletes in the history of the game... the dude still blows by everyone after 15 seasons and a blown achilles.
 

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