NBA Playoffs Thread - 2nd round edition

[Tince]

Being a threat at least gives you a punchers chance. If injuries or good matchups break the right way, you might stumble into a ring. We almost did it in 2019 but we didn't have enough talent to get past Golden State and most likely Toronto. Or maybe we did but we weren't healthy enough.

To your point about tanking, unfortunately the rules are different for us. We aren't a big city so we aren't going to attract big name free agents. Our best chance at getting a superstar player is through the draft.... like Dame.

But if you look at the teams in the last 20+ years, most of those teams had stars that they drafted.... or they just went out and got LeBron. There's going to be a massive void when that dude finally retires. So maybe we should just go get LeBron hahaha

I started going down year by year but that doesn't make sense. Over the past 20 years we have seen the same teams over and over and over.

Warriors - 4 championships
Steph - drafted
Klay - drafted
Draymond - drafted

Cavs - 1 championship (5 trips to the finals)
LeBron (drafted/free agent)
Kyrie (drafted)
Love (traded the #1 pick for him)

Spurs - 4 championships (5 trips)
Duncan - drafted
Parker - drafted
Ginobili - drafted

Lakers - 2 rings (4 trips)
Kobe - drafted
Shaq - free agent (on one of those teams)
Gasol - trade

Heat - 3 rings (6 trips)
Wade - drafted
Shaq - trade (1 trip)
LeBron - free agent
Bosh - free agent
Butler - free agent
Bam - drafted

Celtics - 1 ring (3 trips)
Pierce - drafted
KG - trade
Allen - trade
Tatum - draft
Brown - draft

It's depressing how many times the same teams have gone to the Finals, and how many times LeBron has been in the Finals in the past 20 years.

So in summary:

Draft Wemby, pair him with two other nice players that were drafted, and you'll make a lot of finals. I'm down with that plan!

 

[wizenheimer]

I hear your point, but I think it's flawed logic.

1. It's hard to obtain one elite talent. So giving up one, thinking there's a decent probability of later obtaining two seems better in theory than practicality.

seems like you're talking to somebody else. I've been real clear in saying I think trading Dame is a terrible idea. I think all the arguments in favor of trading him are significantly flawed. The always fall apart...at least they do from my perspective

I'm just saying what I think should happen if Dame asks out.

 

[SharpesTriumph]

I hear your point, but I think it's flawed logic.

1. It's hard to obtain one elite talent. So giving up one, thinking there's a decent probability of later obtaining two seems better in theory than practicality.
2. If the Blazers were to be lucky enough to draft two elite talents, they would then have to figure out a way to keep both of those players in Portland. I think Dame has made Blazers greatly over-value how hard it will be for Portland to keep two elite talents with the franchise into their prime.

Where we do agree is the need for more elite talent and that it's difficult to see a trade being out there that gives Portland a legit shot to obtain TWO elite talents in a recent draft.

Disagree strongly with point #2. Rookie contract is 4 years and then extension that no rookie has ever turned down is 5 years. So 9 years total. Plus now the supermax extensions make it much less likely a player leaves even after those 9 years as Aldridge did. So just a very small chance a player leaves a franchise if they draft him for basically a whole decade.

So the best way to add a star for a market like Portland is in the draft.

 

[Fairly-Hard]

Disagree strongly with point #2. Rookie contract is 4 years and then extension that no rookie has ever turned down is 5 years. So 9 years total. Plus now the supermax extensions make it much less likely a player leaves even after those 9 years as Aldridge did. So just a very small chance a player leaves a franchise if they draft him for basically a whole decade.

So the best way to add a star for a market like Portland is in the draft.

Certainly 7 years. Seems like a lot of players get antsy around that time. Trade becomes more of a possibility. Then there are situations like James Harden where he wanted to be "The Man". Forced his way out of OKC. Crazy part is they might have won a chip if they all would have just kept it together. Harden and Westbrook are still searching for a Championship.

 

[Tince]

Disagree strongly with point #2. Rookie contract is 4 years and then extension that no rookie has ever turned down is 5 years. So 9 years total. Plus now the supermax extensions make it much less likely a player leaves even after those 9 years as Aldridge did. So just a very small chance a player leaves a franchise if they draft him for basically a whole decade.

So the best way to add a star for a market like Portland is in the draft.

Agreed the easiest way to add them is the draft.

Still disagree that keeping 2 elite talents in a small market for 9 years is probable, let alone likely. How many small market teams have pulled off drafting two max level players, then kept them, on max deals for up to their 9th years? I'm sure there could be an example or two, but they are rare.

While guys sign their super max extensions, it's also common for them to demand a trade (and be granted such) while playing out that contract.

 

[Tince]

Certainly 7 years. Seems like a lot of players get antsy around that time. Trade becomes more of a possibility. Then there are situations like James Harden where he wanted to be "The Man". Forced his way out of OKC. Crazy part is they might have won a chip if they all would have just kept it together. Harden and Westbrook are still searching for a Championship.

Exactly. I wish I had read your post before I had replied to the previous one. You nailed it.

Players of Dame's skillset and loyalty don't grow on trees. So getting rid of one of 5 ultra loyal all-NBA players in hopes we can use two high draft picks to identify, pick, and keep two elite talents is more of a long shot than I think people realize.

 

[wizenheimer]

Certainly 7 years. Seems like a lot of players get antsy around that time. Trade becomes more of a possibility. Then there are situations like James Harden where he wanted to be "The Man". .

what I remember is that Harden 'deservedly' wanted a max extension from his rookie deal. Meanwhile OKC had already given super-max extensions to Durant & Westbrook, while also giving Ibaka a 12M/year deal, which was about 80% of max at the time. OKC, being an even smaller market team than Portland, decided they couldn't afford Harden on top of everything else

if a team, right now, had 2 players on a super-max rookie extension, another eligible for a max extension, and a 4th just signed for 80% of the max....well, with next year's projected cap of 134M, those 4 players would cost at least 142M. 8M more than the cap and only 20M less than the tax.

OKC was in a bind

 

[Fairly-Hard]

what I remember is that Harden 'deservedly' wanted a max extension from his rookie deal. Meanwhile OKC had already given super-max extensions to Durant & Westbrook, while also giving Ibaka a 12M/year deal, which was about 80% of max at the time. OKC, being an even smaller market team than Portland, decided they couldn't afford Harden on top of everything else

if a team, right now, had 2 players on a super-max rookie extension, another eligible for a max extension, and a 4th just signed for 80% of the max....well, with next year's projected cap of 134M, those 4 players would cost at least 142M. 8M more than the cap and only 20M less than the tax.

OKC was in a bind

Yeah looking at it that way is pretty bleak? I wonder if they would have won a championship though? Or ever two or three? What kind of money are they making then? They would have rights to all of them so paying them is not out of the question. Then you have all the players coming in for a one year vet minimum to play with the best team in the league type thing? The Warriors kept Curry, Klay and Draymond with Iggy and Durant plus Shawn Livingston and Cousins. Just was a way bigger market i guess?

 

[wizenheimer]

Yeah looking at it that way is pretty bleak? I wonder if they would have won a championship though? Or ever two or three? What kind of money are they making then? They would have rights to all of them so paying them is not out of the question. Then you have all the players coming in for a one year vet minimum to play with the best team in the league type thing? The Warriors kept Curry, Klay and Draymond with Iggy and Durant plus Shawn Livingston and Cousins. Just was a way bigger market i guess?

Warriors are a bigger market and have giant local TV contracts that dwarf local TV contracts franchises like Portland and OKC sign

they also got Curry for a huge rookie extension discount because of his injury history and had great timing

* in 2010 Thunder signed Durant to a 5-year/86M extension

* in 2012 Warriors signed Curry to a 4-year/44M extension

* in 2012 Thunder signed Westbrook to a 5-year/80M extension

* in 2012 Thunder signed Ibaka to a 4-year/48M extension (warriors got 4 years of Curry for less than Thunder got 4 years of Ibaka)

* in 2012, Klay was in the 2nd year of his 4-year/11.8M rookie deal

* in 2012, Draymond was in the 1st year of his 3-year/2.6M minimum contract

in the 2013-14 season, the trio of Curry-Klay-Green cost the Warriors 13M. In the same year the trio of Durant-Westbrook-Ibaka cost the Thunder 45M. The salary cap that season was 58.7M. Harden made 14M that season in Houston

 

[SharpesTriumph]

Certainly 7 years. Seems like a lot of players get antsy around that time. Trade becomes more of a possibility. Then there are situations like James Harden where he wanted to be "The Man". Forced his way out of OKC. Crazy part is they might have won a chip if they all would have just kept it together. Harden and Westbrook are still searching for a Championship.

Harden didn't force his way out of OKC, he said he was happy to be the 6th man, he just wanted them to pay him the max contract he deserved. OKC offered him less, he said he'd think about it, and they abruptly with no warning traded him hours later.

 

[SharpesTriumph]

Agreed the easiest way to add them is the draft.

Still disagree that keeping 2 elite talents in a small market for 9 years is probable, let alone likely. How many small market teams have pulled off drafting two max level players, then kept them, on max deals for up to their 9th years? I'm sure there could be an example or two, but they are rare.

While guys sign their super max extensions, it's also common for them to demand a trade (and be granted such) while playing out that contract.

Can you name a single time that this max level young duo walked away from their team? I can't think of a single example where a max level duo have left during a rookie contract or extension. All of these seven duos below stayed - except Bridges where his team traded him;

Steph and Klay.

Durant and Westbrook.

Tatum and Brown.

Giannis and Middleton.

Jokic and Murray.

Booker and Bridges

Mitchell and Gobert

And no Harden didn't leave or force his way out, he embraced a 6th man role. OKC wanted to be cheapskates and have him sign for far less than his worth which he'd have been a fool to agree to. Then OKC abruptly traded him. Houston then immediately did what the entire rest of the league would do and maxed him.

 

[Tince]

Can you name a single time that this max level young duo walked away from their team? I can't think of a single example where a max level duo have left during a rookie contract or extension. All of these seven duos below stayed - except Bridges where his team traded him;

Steph and Klay.

Durant and Westbrook.

Tatum and Brown.

Giannis and Middleton.

Jokic and Murray.

Booker and Bridges

Mitchell and Gobert

And no Harden didn't leave or force his way out, he embraced a 6th man role. OKC wanted to be cheapskates and have him sign for far less than his worth which he'd have been a fool to agree to. Then OKC abruptly traded him. Houston then immediately did what the entire rest of the league would do and maxed him.

None of those combos met the criteria I put out. Not one.

They're all good duos. Steph and Klay are the only ones who got drafted and stayed together for the 9 years mentioned, but they weren't two max contracts. Had they both required max contracts, according to Draymond, that core would've been broken up back then.

Which to my point, is why the plan of drafting two max players and keeping them for 9 years is highly highly unlikely.

 

[wizenheimer]

Which to my point, is why the plan of drafting two max players and keeping them for 9 years is highly highly unlikely.

yep...Meyers Leonard was gone in 7