Newly named- Potential Upside Podcast - Ep 1 is now up- now with less Danforth!

[Dan Marang]

Considering the name wasn't good to begin with, we settled an an actual name for the podcast- Potential Upside Podcast, or the PUP. It's meant as a nod towards both the analytics and potential in players, but also the place this Blazers team is in now- with, you guessed it, a lot of potential upside.

Danforth is out sick so it's just Andy Bunker and myself this time- taking a long look at Meyers Leonard. Take a listen and let me know what you think! (also available on iTunes- search Rip City Mornings and look for the Potential Upside Podcast)

http://ripcityradio.iheart.com/onair/rip-city-mornings-56071/potential-upside-podcast-ep02-14297565/

Take a listen and as always- let me know what you think!

 

[illmatic99]

Was just listening to this. All this talk of Meyers being a good rim protector is over blown.

http://nyloncalculus.com/stats/rim-protection/

Plums is trash at rim protection, no doubt. He's letting guys shoot 57% at the rim and contests 41% of the attempts. But Meyers is not that much better: 54% opp FG% and contesting 28% of the shots. Playing him at 5 and letting him go against post ups might not be all that great of an option anyway. Guy to keep an eye on for rim protection is Noah.

Meyers brings one skill to the court: 3pt shooting. And he doesn't shoot 40% as you say (that was with a smaller sample size last year), but it's rather 35%. And his hesitation and lack of confidence takes away from that paltry skill he has. Ship him out. I'm done.

 

[Dan Marang]

Was just listening to this. All this talk of Meyers being a good rim protector is over blown.

http://nyloncalculus.com/stats/rim-protection/

Plums is trash at rim protection, no doubt. He's letting guys shoot 57% at the rim and contests 41% of the attempts. But Meyers is not that much better: 54% opp FG% and contesting 28% of the shots. Playing him at 5 and letting him go against post ups might not be all that great of an option anyway. Guy to keep an eye on for rim protection is Noah.


Meyers brings one skill to the court: 3pt shooting. And he doesn't shoot 40% as you say (that was with a smaller sample size last year), but it's rather 35%. And his hesitation and lack of confidence takes away from that paltry skill he has. Ship him out. I'm done.

I go into that further- I referenced the numbers from last year and again a small sample size and brought up that he has actually struggled this year. However, his numbers are down- in my opinion because he's not at the rim all that often. I in no way think that Meyers is the end all be all of rim protection- however, he is the best option on this roster. I can cut and paste plenty of examples where he succeeds, but that's cherry picking at best. It's hard to walk that line of advocating for someone and clarifying an observation. With Meyers, that's made infinitely harder b/c of his inconsistencies.

Noah's numbers have gone down and down over the last few years- there's a number of factors at play there, but we're not getting the All-Defense version of Noah at this point in his career.

 

[illmatic99]

I meant Noah Vonleh. He might be our best rim protector.

Not Joakim Noah.

 

[Dan Marang]

I meant Noah Vonleh. He might be our best rim protector.

Not Joakim Noah.

Hmmm... I haven't seen enough of him to make a good call on that one. Interesting thought though, that's for sure. He has the tools to be successful on that end of the court... but there haven't been any markers to really indicate otherwise. He may or may not end up being that guy, but his college numbers don't project him as much of a shot blocker- he actually blocked a smaller percentage of shots than Meyers. Blocks and rebounds are typically skills that transition pretty well to the NBA- so it'll be fun to watch and see if he develops those skills.

 

[BBert]

Leonard doesn't play under the basket because his coach doesn't put him there. He doesn't 'float' out to the perimeter as some say, his coach puts him there. I watched Meyers last night do a good job of boxing out and of grabbing rebounds (he finished with 10 in under 20 minutes). He had a couple of plays where he affected shots. I like him underneath and around the basket, and I wish his coach would have him spend a little more time there. Maybe next year if he's still here and if we were to trade one or two front court players.

 

[illmatic99]

Hmmm... I haven't seen enough of him to make a good call on that one. Interesting thought though, that's for sure. He has the tools to be successful on that end of the court... but there haven't been any markers to really indicate otherwise. He may or may not end up being that guy, but his college numbers don't project him as much of a shot blocker- he actually blocked a smaller percentage of shots than Meyers. Blocks and rebounds are typically skills that transition pretty well to the NBA- so it'll be fun to watch and see if he develops those skills.

I know you know that shot blocking is not the greatest indicator of rim protection. It's more about the way he uses his body, and how he contests shots His wingspan is actually an inch longer than Meyers' and he's got more lower body strength, and from what I see on the court, far better defensive instincts. And the early stats indicate that he and Ed Davis are our best rim protectors.

Of all the things you can focus on to claim Leonard needs more PT, you picked the wrong one with defense.

It's just baffling to me that some of you guys still have hope for this guy.

 

[Orion Bailey]

Leonard doesn't play under the basket because his coach doesn't put him there. He doesn't 'float' out to the perimeter as some say, his coach puts him there. I watched Meyers last night do a good job of boxing out and of grabbing rebounds (he finished with 10 in under 20 minutes). He had a couple of plays where he affected shots. I like him underneath and around the basket, and I wish his coach would have him spend a little more time there. Maybe next year if he's still here and if we were to trade one or two front court players.

How can you get better at something if your not actively trying to do it on a regular basis?

 

[BBert]

On another note, I like me some Noah Vonleh. (He certainly is polarizing, some say give him more minutes and others think he's a waste of space, LOL.) I really like his potential. I like that the team seems to be bringing him along, not necessarily 'slowly', but one step/skill at a time. That's the way to do it with a young raw player like Noah.

 

[BBert]

How can you get better at something if your not actively trying to do it on a regular basis?

Exactly.

 

[illmatic99]

Leonard doesn't play under the basket because his coach doesn't put him there. He doesn't 'float' out to the perimeter as some say, his coach puts him there. I watched Meyers last night do a good job of boxing out and of grabbing rebounds (he finished with 10 in under 20 minutes). He had a couple of plays where he affected shots. I like him underneath and around the basket, and I wish his coach would have him spend a little more time there. Maybe next year if he's still here and if we were to trade one or two front court players.

So what do you do with Davis and Plumlee? I've seen this idea floated around about how Leonard needs to play at C exclusively. Where do you put Mase and Ed then? They are far more valuable in every aspect of the game outside of offensive spacing.

 

[Dan Marang]

I know you know that shot blocking is not the greatest indicator of rim protection. It's more about the way he uses his body, and how he contests shots His wingspan is actually an inch longer than Meyers' and he's got more lower body strength, and from what I see on the court, far better defensive instincts.

Of all the things you can focus on to claim he needs more PT, you picked the wrong one with defense.

Oh Vonleh has condor wings for arms- and I didn't mean to insinuate that blocks were the end all, or that you believed they were- and yes he easily moves better than Meyers and he has the Shawn Kemp ass (which is actually a thing...) I just haven't seen him use his physicality enough or consistently to determine whether or not he'll be any more of a defensive stopper than he is today. That's not to say he can't be, he's ridiculously you and he has plenty of time to grow. However, my point on Meyers and more PT is about showing or not showing that he can handle things on both ends of the court- that's really the final point. I feel the Blazers have to, one way or another, come to a conclusion on his skill set and contribution b/c his contract is a linch pin for the team going forward.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

I know you know that shot blocking is not the greatest indicator of rim protection. It's more about the way he uses his body, and how he contests shots His wingspan is actually an inch longer than Meyers' and he's got more lower body strength, and from what I see on the court, far better defensive instincts.

Of all the things you can focus on to claim he needs more PT, you picked the wrong one with defense.

Perhaps both of them need more PT. 18-22 mpg for Plums/Davis, 26-30 mpg for Meyers/Noah. Keep bringing Meyers off the bench behind Plums, but make him play closer to the hoop defensively. See what happens...

 

[Dan Marang]

So what do you do with Davis and Plumlee? I've seen this idea floated around about how Leonard needs to play at C exclusively. Where do you put Mase and Ed then? They are fare more valuable in every aspect of the floor outside of offensive spacing.

I honestly don't mind the Ed/Leonard pairing- and I think for the most part Ed moves his feet well enough to be able to stick with a good amount of 4's. Mason to me is a career back up big who is what he is. That's not a negative, it's just you know what he's going to give you and hoping/expecting for anything else outside that bubble puts him in a position where he's not as successful.

 

[illmatic99]

Another thing that I have a serious contention with: Meyers Leonard being a "elite" shooter.

When did 35% 3pt shooting become elite? And given how many of these looks are WIDE OPEN, I don't think he's all that great of a shooter either.

/hater

 

[BBert]

So what do you do with Davis and Plumlee? I've seen this idea floated around about how Leonard needs to play at C exclusively. Where do you put Mase and Ed then? They are fare more valuable in every aspect of the floor outside of offensive spacing.

I know. Unless one of them is included in a trade, how does Meyers even get a chance to play around the basket? Because they certainly can't play away from it. (Other than PlumDog's high post passing.) And then there is the need to develop Vonleh. So in the end, the only position left for Meyers is tip-toeing around the three point line, setting high screens and popping out for three pointers?

 

[PtldPlatypus]

Another thing that I have a serious contention with: Meyers Leonard being a "elite" shooter.

When did 35% 3pt shooting become elite? And given how many of these looks are WIDE OPEN, I don't think he's all that great of a shooter either.

/hater

It's not. But he was over 40% last year, and after a terrible start, he's been improving all season.
15.4% in October
28% in November
36% in December
44% (17-39) in January

In fact, since 12/23, he's 33-68, or 48.5%. Would that be elite enough for you?

 

[BBert]

It's not. But he was over 40% last year, and after a terrible start, he's been improving all season.
15.4% in October
28% in November
36% in December
44% (17-39) in January

So at his current rate of improvement Meyers should be shooting 52% from three in February. Anything less will be a total fail!

 

[illmatic99]

It's not. But he was over 40% last year, and after a terrible start, he's been improving all season.
15.4% in October
28% in November
36% in December
44% (17-39) in January

In fact, since 12/23, he's 33-68, or 48.5%. Would that be elite enough for you?

He's trending upward, that's for sure.

I was wondering about this earlier, but he shoots WIDE OPEN shots. Defenses pay such little attention to him, that I feel like his impact due to spacing is completely overestimated. I wish those gravity stats would be made public. It would also be interesting to see how his shooting % on contested shots compare with others like Aminu/Hark/non-blazers.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

He's trending upward, that's for sure.

I was wondering about this earlier, but he shoots WIDE OPEN shots. Defenses pay such little attention to him, that I feel like his impact due to spacing is completely overestimated. I wish those gravity stats would be made public. It would also be interesting to see how his shooting % on contested shots compare with others like Aminu/Hark/non-blazers.

I don't know if he has any contested shots. He's scared to take them.

 

[Dan Marang]

Another thing that I have a serious contention with: Meyers Leonard being a "elite" shooter.

When did 35% 3pt shooting become elite? And given how many of these looks are WIDE OPEN, I don't think he's all that great of a shooter either.

/hater

Coming off an awful start to the season and a separated shoulder- he was a train wreck. Since then he's above 40% from 3- with more attempts.

His numbers for the past 6 weeks If there's absolutely, unequivocally something Meyers can do- it's knock down shots. I have no doubt in my mind that he can shoot ~40% for the season. I'm not sure what was going on to start the season, but he has since recovered to shoot the lights out.

 

[Strenuus]

Coming off an awful start to the season and a separated shoulder- he was a train wreck. Since then he's above 40% from 3- with more attempts.

His numbers for the past 6 weeks If there's absolutely, unequivocally something Meyers can do- it's knock down shots. I have no doubt in my mind that he can shoot ~40% for the season. I'm not sure what was going on to start the season, but he has since recovered to shoot the lights out.

Loving the trade value he'll bring.

It's all he's really good at.

 

[Dan Marang]

He's trending upward, that's for sure.

I was wondering about this earlier, but he shoots WIDE OPEN shots. Defenses pay such little attention to him, that I feel like his impact due to spacing is completely overestimated. I wish those gravity stats would be made public. It would also be interesting to see how his shooting % on contested shots compare with others like Aminu/Hark/non-blazers.

I actually did the math on his shots, but I'm still pulling numbers on "like" players- but the avg distance for a defender is ~5ft. He has the ball in his hands for 1.23 seconds before shooting, and he take shots on avg around the 11 second mark of the 24sec clock. I'm not certain how that all stacks up against other players- so I'm holding judgment until then. But- the fact that he's a big is the reason he gets those shots and in my mind makes it infinitely more valuable. Whether or not the shot is wide open is of no concern too me- I'm more concerned w/whether or not it goes down. If he continues to shoot 40% for the season, no one is really going to care if he misses a few wide open 3's b/c that probably means he's knocking down some contested ones too.

 

[riverman]

Great podcast...I think your point about blocking shots out of bounds being a dumb move was brilliant. Never heard that discussed before on a basketball forum. Great angle and coaching tip

 

[Dan Marang]

Loving the trade value he'll bring.

It's all he's really good at.

It will definitely be interesting to see if the front office does move him- and what the return is. I'll have to go and run back through the last couple years of trades, but I can't remember too many deals that involved moving an RFA.

 

[Strenuus]

It will definitely be interesting to see if the front office does move him- and what the return is. I'll have to go and run back through the last couple years of trades, but I can't remember too many deals that involved moving an RFA.

Make it so, Neil. Get him off the team!

 

[Dan Marang]

Make it so, Neil. Get him off the team!

Realistically- what do you see the Blazers getting in return and what goes out?

 

[Strenuus]

Realistically- what do you see the Blazers getting in return and what goes out?

Dangit, why'd you have to say realistically... A can of worms and a whoopie cushion would be ideal for those late night plane rides on Blazer one. I was thinking we might be able to get him for both, but that'd be pushing it... I heard the whoopie cushion is a RFA.

Realistically, Not much. But, I really don't care.

 

[Blazinaway]

Realistically- what do you see the Blazers getting in return and what goes out?

I actually want CJ for Nerlens Noel, for Meyers (plus more) perhaps look to get an SG replacement - like Fournier from Magic
OR

I sure liked what I saw of Kent Bazemore last night and he is a UFA thus coming summer

 

[Dan Marang]

I actually want CJ for Nerlens Noel, for Meyers (plus more) perhaps look to get an SG replacement - like Fournier from Magic
OR

I sure liked what I saw of Kent Bazemore last night and he is a UFA thus coming summer

a quick note on Bazemore... I was doing some basic research on Allen Crabbe and this little gem popped up... why go after Bazemore when you've already got one for less $$?