Next year's shot distribution

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LittleAlex

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Last night I was wondering how many shots the team took on average per game and how that compared to the average shots an everyday player on the team took.

Here are the results:
79 - Entire team
17 - Brandon
15 - LA
11 - Travis
9 - Blake
8 - Rudy
6 - Oden
4 - Batum
9 - Random players

I am wondering what that distribution will look like next year. Here is my prediction:
81 - Entire team (their pace may increase a tad and Oden will get more Offensive boards)
17 - Brandon (He certainly isn't going to shoot less).
15 - LA (Ditto for Aldridge)
10 - Oden (I think he will get more looks)
8 - Miller (This is almost 5 less shots then he took in Philly. Not sure if this will fly)
8 - Rudy (Same as last year)
6 - Martell (80% of these will be 3 pointers)
6 - Outlaw (He isn't going to be on the floor as much. At least, I don't think he will be)
6 - Blake (His minutes go down)
5 - Radom other players.

Anyone else want to give it a guess?
 
LittleAlex said:
Last night I was wondering how many shots the team took on average per game and how that compared to the average shots an everyday player on the team took.

Here are the results:
79 - Entire team
17 - Brandon
15 - LA
11 - Travis
9 - Blake
8 - Rudy
6 - Oden
4 - Batum
9 - Random players

I am wondering what that distribution will look like next year. Here is my prediction:
81 - Entire team (their pace may increase a tad and Oden will get more Offensive boards)
17 - Brandon (He certainly isn't going to shoot less).
15 - LA (Ditto for Aldridge)
10 - Oden (I think he will get more looks)
8 - Miller (This is almost 5 less shots then he took in Philly. Not sure if this will fly)
8 - Rudy (Same as last year)
6 - Martell (80% of these will be 3 pointers)
6 - Outlaw (He isn't going to be on the floor as much. At least, I don't think he will be)
6 - Blake (His minutes go down)
5 - Radom other players.

Anyone else want to give it a guess?
Click to expand...

Trade coming soon!
 
Sure, I'll give it a shot:

81 - Entire team (Last year's league median)

By position: PG-16, SG-23, SF-10, PF-22, C-10

15 - Brandon (I think he will defer more this year).
14 - LA (Ditto for Aldridge)
10 - Miller (Assuming he gets 28-30 mpg at PG)
8 - Oden (More minutes, more shots)
8 - Rudy (Same as last year)
8 - Outlaw (Going down a bit)
6 - Nic (I think he'll get more time/looks than Martell)
6 - Blake (His minutes go down)
4 - Martell (He's been out for a year)
3 - Joel (Exclusively "garbage" looks [tips, etc])
 
I cannot believe Joel is not in that list!:ghoti:
 
By "next year" I assume you mean this year . . . At any rate, I'd say your guess is as good as mine. Oden will certainly get more shots, and Miller will get his.
 
I really hope Roy gets more than 15 shots a game.
 
the first two of you didn't include batum in current roster other than "random other players" =[

e:first post not two
 
westnob said:
the first two of you didn't include batum in current roster other than "random other players" =[

e:first post not two
Click to expand...

He only took 4 shots a game last year and I don't see that increasing when he is on the floor with Roy, LA and Oden. I just didn't see much point in listing him.
 
LittleAlex said:
He only took 4 shots a game last year and I don't see that increasing when he is on the floor with Roy, LA and Oden. I just didn't see much point in listing him.
Click to expand...
You should list him, he's gonna shoot.
 
PapaG said:
I really hope Roy gets more than 15 shots a game.
Click to expand...

He averaged 17/game last year, and I think he dominated the ball a little more than was necessary. I would like to see his shots decrease a little, especially if it's as a result of Oden seeing more looks in the post.
 
PtldPlatypus said:
He averaged 17/game last year, and I think he dominated the ball a little more than was necessary. I would like to see his shots decrease a little, especially if it's as a result of Oden seeing more looks in the post.
Click to expand...

If that's the case, I'd like to see LMA and Miller have less than 14 and 10 shots (as in your scenario), respectively, over Roy going under 17. Why take the ball out of your All-Star's hands?

Why in the world does Andre Miller need 10 shots in 28 mpg?
 
PapaG said:
Why in the world does Andre Miller need 10 shots in 28 mpg?
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Because 1 shot every 2.8 game minutes is very close to the 1 shot every 2.96 game minutes afforded by an 81 shot/game pace, and Miller's points-per-shot figure from last year is fifth-best amongst those on this year's team--this despite being a guard without a 3-point shot--suggesting that he should probably get slightly more shots-per-minute than the average player. 10 shots in 28 minutes is very reasonable.
 
PtldPlatypus said:
Because 1 shot every 2.8 game minutes is very close to the 1 shot every 2.96 game minutes afforded by an 81 shot/game pace, and Miller's points-per-shot figure from last year is fifth-best amongst those on this year's team--this despite being a guard without a 3-point shot--suggesting that he should probably get slightly more shots-per-minute than the average player. 10 shots in 28 minutes is very reasonable.
Click to expand...

I don't agree. Miller is a 21+% on usage rate. Blake is best around 16, as he was last year. The more Miller dominates the ball, the less Roy/LMA have it in their hands.

Again, if Miller averages 10 shots per/28, I will be very displeased with him. He needs to distribute the ball. I thought that is why he was acquired?
 
PapaG said:
I don't agree. Miller is a 21+% on usage rate. Blake is best around 16, as he was last year. The more Miller dominates the ball, the less Roy/LMA have it in their hands.

Again, if Miller averages 10 shots per/28, I will be very displeased with him. He needs to distribute the ball. I thought that is why he was acquired?
Click to expand...

If he just passes but never scores, he'll become Sergio.:biglaugh:
 
B-Roy said:
If he just passes but never scores, he'll become Sergio.:biglaugh:
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I didn't say he'd never score, but I thought he was brought into Portland because he was a distributor and could make the post players better on offense?
 
PapaG said:
I didn't say he'd never score, but I thought he was brought into Portland because he was a distributor and could make the post players better on offense?
Click to expand...

I want him to mostly defer when he shares the court with Roy, but be an active scorer when he's on the floor and Roy isn't. He's Portland's best penetrator after Roy, and the team will need that when Roy isn't doing it. In fact, it may be to Portland's advantage to have Miller do most of the penetrating the first three quarters, to keep Roy fresh for the fourth quarter (and for later in the season). This is assuming Roy can be very effective off the ball as a catch-and-shoot guy. If so, it'll save his legs and reduce the punishment he takes to some extent.

I think a key for Portland's success is to reduce how much Roy needs to do for most of the game (a "quiet" 10-15 points for the first three quarters, say) and then let him take over in the fourth. That would be a good use of the depth of talent.
 
PapaG said:
I didn't say he'd never score, but I thought he was brought into Portland because he was a distributor and could make the post players better on offense?
Click to expand...

He's also a credible 2nd or 3rd option on offense too ... God only knows what his assist rate and scoring rates will be, but he's fully capable of scoring and passing efficiently. Being a pure point and making our post players is only part of the equation.
 
Nikolokolus said:
He's also a credible 2nd or 3rd option on offense too ... God only knows what his assist rate and scoring rates will be, but he's fully capable of scoring and passing efficiently. Being a pure point and making our post players is only part of the equation.
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I'd like him to be the 4th option, after Roy, LMA, and Oden. Whatever though, I know you only posted to snark on me. You proved that point earlier tonight. Steve Blake bested Miller in TS% and eFG% last year, but oh well. :cheers:
 
PapaG said:
I'd like him to be the 4th option, after Roy, LMA, and Oden. Whatever though, I know you only posted to snark on me. You proved that point earlier tonight. :cheers:
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Huh? I wasn't around earlier tonight ... and no, I wasn't snarking on you :dunno:
 
PapaG said:
Steve Blake bested Miller in TS% and eFG% last year, and for the snarking:

http://www.sportstwo.com/forums/showpost.php?p=2124001&postcount=4

No big deal, I just didn't know if you were being serious, or if you were being barfo. :cheers:
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Just trying to be funny (in the sounds messy comment) ... being barfo is something else entirely :wink:

But I was being dead serious about the Miller comment above, then again it occurs to me you might have been making a rhetorical comment and I didn't pick up on it.
 
Nikolokolus said:
Just trying to be funny (in the sounds messy comment) ... being barfo is something else entirely :wink:

But I was being dead serious about the Miller comment above, then again it occurs to me you might have been making a rhetorical comment and I didn't pick up on it.
Click to expand...

No, it wasn't rhetorical. I don't want Andre Miller to average 10 shots/pg in 28 minutes, regardless of his past as a 2nd or 3rd option on teams with considerably less talent. I think that is excessive, at least if the pace stays somewhat similar to last season.
 
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