Nice Webster read

[B-Roy]

Nic usually guarded the opponent's tougher wing each night, and that wasn't necessarily the SF. Heck I'm recalling Tony Parker lighting up the Blazers early on in the season... they then played a couple games close together vs the Spurs where Nic spent a good deal of time shadowing TP with pretty decent results.

STOMP

And Webster didn't? It was more by design, since either Webster or Roy had to guard the star player, and they didn't want Roy getting tired out. Kind of the same situation with Batum too.

And the game against the Spurs, Batum guarded Parker for like 3 possessions and then after the game (Batum) said there was no way he could keep up with Parker for more than a few plays. He was "too quick".

 

[PapaG]

Nic usually guarded the opponent's tougher wing each night, and that wasn't necessarily the SF. Heck I'm recalling Tony Parker lighting up the Blazers early on in the season... they then played a couple games close together vs the Spurs where Nic spent a good deal of time shadowing TP with pretty decent results.

Like I said, the opinion of his D is pretty unanimous... keep being a Webster homer if you must.

STOMP

To be fair, Outlaw also saw a lot of time on Parker in those games.

 

[PapaG]

And Webster didn't? It was more by design, since either Webster or Roy had to guard the star player, and they didn't want Roy getting tired out. Kind of the same situation with Batum too.

And the game against the Spurs, Batum guarded Parker for like 3 possessions and then after the game (Batum) said there was no way he could keep up with Parker for more than a few plays. He was "too quick".

Huh? Steve Blake had to guard Kobe Bryant when Martell Webster was playing.

 

[Minstrel]

What, that they are comparable defenders at the moment?

That isn't what that defensive win scores stat showed. It showed that Batum racked up the same defensive win score as Webster in about half the minutes played. That suggests that Batum is nearly twice as effective on defense.

since we're in a position to win now, I'd rather take the better player on offense, Webster.

There's not much evidence that Webster is better on offense. The only thing in his favour is that he scored more points on more shots on a significantly worse team.

One more thing, since when did Batum become a better three point shooter than Webster?

He's not better, he's about the same. Considering that's supposed to be Webster's ace in the hole ability, that doesn't make Webster's case very effectively.

And while it's true that Batum shot a higher FG% overall, he shoots a lot less than Webster, and if they were to take around the same number of shots, Batum's FG% would be dragged down as well.

Batum's FG% and TS% (which factors in free throws and three-pointers) are superior and Webster's usage rate wasn't that much higher. Both Webster and Batum are passive players on offense. The differences are: 1. Batum strikes almost everyone as a significantly better defender and 2. Webster hasn't improved his offense in three years, limiting his upside projection, while Batum can be expected to improve from his age-19 rookie season.

Even if Batum's efficiency is brought down by more shots, that would simply bring him down to Webster's efficiency levels, while providing the same offensive contribution. Meanwhile, Batum will be providing more on defense. And that assumes zero improvement from Batum, which I find unlikely.

 

[B-Roy]

That isn't what that defensive win scores stat showed. It showed that Batum racked up the same defensive win score as Webster in about half the minutes played. That suggests that Batum is nearly twice as effective on defense.

1500/2100 =/= half. More like 1-1/3 better.

He's not better, he's about the same. Considering that's supposed to be Webster's ace in the hole ability, that doesn't make Webster's case very effectively.

No he's not. Webster shot a significantly higher volume, and at a better %.

Batum's FG% and TS% (which factors in free throws and three-pointers) are superior and Webster's usage rate wasn't that much higher. Both Webster and Batum are passive players on offense.

And yet, he still couldn't get more than 20 minutes a game, even though his TS% was higher than Outlaw's, Aldridge's, and (surprisingly) Roy's 1st and second seasons. Damn, he's so efficient, why can't he play more and get more shots?

Even if Batum's efficiency is brought down by more shots, that would simply bring him down to Webster's efficiency levels, while providing the same offensive contribution. Meanwhile, Batum will be providing more on defense. And that assumes zero improvement from Batum, which I find unlikely.

I still don't agree that Batum provides the same offensive production. Batum, more often than not, did not even command a defender. But hey, whatever. Batum just isn't that special in my eyes. I'll let his play speak for itself this upcoming season.

 

[Minstrel]

1500/2100 =/= half. More like 1-1/3 better.

Yeah, I just quickly eye-balled the numbers. It's actually about 1.5x better, not 2x better. The point is, significantly better.

No he's not. Webster shot a significantly higher volume, and at a better %.

He was still only shooting open shots. He was creating nothing. Webster was on a team with fewer scoring options than Batum, so got more shots. Batum can hit open shots as well and at a substantially similar rate.

And yet, he still couldn't get more than 20 minutes a game, even though his TS% was higher than Outlaw's, Aldridge's, and (surprisingly) Roy's 1st and second seasons. Damn, he's so efficient, why can't he play more and get more shots?

Outlaw has a different skillset, he can create shots against defenders, something Batum and Webster can't do. If you want to argue about Batum and Outlaw, at least Outlaw can do something Batum can't (yet). But I see nothing Webster can do that Batum can't. Webster is no better at creating offense, he's an equally passive shooter and only slightly better at that. So there's nothing compelling to recommend Webster over Batum, considering Batum can defend.

I still don't agree that Batum provides the same offensive production. Batum, more often than not, did not even command a defender.

Crazy exaggeration. He occasionally didn't draw a defender and when he didn't, he often made the defense pay with a three. Most of the time, he had a defender on him, which meant he passed the ball. Webster does the same thing--shoot if he's open, pass the ball if not. Webster has been doing that for all three full seasons he's played. Batum may actually improve.

 

[B-Roy]

He was still only shooting open shots. He was creating nothing. Webster was on a team with fewer scoring options than Batum, so got more shots. Batum can hit open shots as well and at a substantially similar rate.

Well firstly, how do you "create" threes? Don't you just mainly shoot open shots?

Fewer scoring options? The only other person I can think of is Rudy, and that's balanced out by Webster playing with Jarrett Jack. I suppose there's Oden...but we all know how many times he touched the ball. It's more like the other players were just shooting more with Batum in the lineup.

Outlaw has a different skillset, he can create shots against defenders, something Batum and Webster can't do. If you want to argue about Batum and Outlaw, at least Outlaw can do something Batum can't (yet). But I see nothing Webster can do that Batum can't. Webster is no better at creating offense, he's an equally passive shooter and only slightly better at that. So there's nothing compelling to recommend Webster over Batum, considering Batum can defend.

I'm just saying efficiency isn't the be all end all of offensive ability. At the very least, Webster drew 2x as many foul shots as Batum, showing that he at least shows more intiative to drive the ball rather than shoot everything. (Webster also drew more foul shots than Outlaw too btw, expect for this past season)

Crazy exaggeration. He occasionally didn't draw a defender and when he didn't, he often made the defense pay with a three. Most of the time, he had a defender on him, which meant he passed the ball. Webster does the same thing--shoot if he's open, pass the ball if not. Webster has been doing that for all three full seasons he's played. Batum may actually improve.

Webster puts the ball on the floor more and is generally more aggressive on offense. You can see it from games, you can see it from foul shot performance, and you can see it from shots p/36. Batum - 9. Webster - 11.

And how much do you realistically expect Batum to improve? Usually the one thing that allows a player to improve is minutes, as in a 10+ mpg boost, and I have a very hard time seeing Batum getting 30 minutes per game. Even though I prefer Webster over Batum, I feel Rudy is better than both (and the coaching staff probably thinks the same too), and is more deserving of minutes than either Webster or Batum. As such, Roy will be moved more towards the SF position, and that means less minutes for Batum and Webster.

 

[Minstrel]

Fewer scoring options? The only other person I can think of is Rudy, and that's balanced out by Webster playing with Jarrett Jack. I suppose there's Oden...but we all know how many times he touched the ball. It's more like the other players were just shooting more with Batum in the lineup.

Roy and Aldridge became significantly better, leading them to taking more shots (which would have happened whether Webster or Batum were at small forward). More shots to Roy and Aldridge, shots by Rudy and more shots taken by the center position in general...that definitely leaves fewer shots for offensively-limited players like Batum and Webster.

I'm just saying efficiency isn't the be all end all of offensive ability. At the very least, Webster drew 2x as many foul shots as Batum, showing that he at least shows more intiative to drive the ball rather than shoot everything. (Webster also drew more foul shots than Outlaw too btw, expect for this past season)

Foul shots are factored into TS%. By "creating" and "aggression," I am, of course, referring to effective creation. Webster may have tried to attack more than Batum, but it didn't yield superior results. I think it is probably true that Batum's efficiency would drop if he took as many shots as Webster...but it's not like Webster was taking 17 shots per game. I think the slightly more shots/points generated by Webster are pretty proportional to the slightly better efficiency by Batum. I think if Batum took as many shots as Webster, his efficiency wouldn't fall below Webster's.

And how much do you realistically expect Batum to improve? Usually the one thing that allows a player to improve is minutes, as in a 10+ mpg boost, and I have a very hard time seeing Batum getting 30 minutes per game.

That's a major factor in a significant improvement in raw stats. Development (skills improving, muscle added, experience with NBA speed) is what leads to actual improvement. I don't know if Batum will play 30 MPG. I think he should, because Portland was a top offense last year with Batum playing...if they want to improve their defense, I think they should play Batum, their best perimeter defender, more. But however many minutes he plays, I expect him to be better in those minutes...more effective on offense, more effective on defense.

I agree that Rudy is better right now, but I think Batum is the better talent and will close the gap significantly on Rudy over the next couple of years. If anyone's minutes are lost (from last year's team), I'd want it to be Outlaw (though he can and should suck up all minutes that went to Frye/Diogu/Ruffin/Randolph). I don't see a lot of minutes for Webster. Regardless of which of us is right, Webster is certainly no difference-maker on offense. Considering that he's also a mediocre defender, I think he'll have a hard time getting serious minutes. Unless he's improved a lot since 2007-08, which is possible and would be great...I just wouldn't bet on it.

 

[B-Roy]

Roy and Aldridge became significantly better, leading them to taking more shots (which would have happened whether Webster or Batum were at small forward). More shots to Roy and Aldridge, shots by Rudy and more shots taken by the center position in general...that definitely leaves fewer shots for offensively-limited players like Batum and Webster.

Don't see it. Aldridge, for the most part, stayed exactly the same (and took the same 15.3 shots per game). Shots taken by Rudy were also taken by Jarrett Jack. Offense from the center was mainly from offensive putbacks. The reason we got more offense at the center position was because Oden+Przybilla gobble up offensive rebounds. The only one who got significantly better was Roy, and he only took one extra shot per game. And I would argue that the extra shots taken by Roy and to a lesser extent, Blake, were to cover up for the loss of some of last years offensive options like Jack and Jones.

Foul shots are factored into TS%. By "creating" and "aggression," I am, of course, referring to effective creation. Webster may have tried to attack more than Batum, but it didn't yield superior results. I think it is probably true that Batum's efficiency would drop if he took as many shots as Webster...but it's not like Webster was taking 17 shots per game. I think the slightly more shots/points generated by Webster are pretty proportional to the slightly better efficiency by Batum. I think if Batum took as many shots as Webster, his efficiency wouldn't fall below Webster's.

Batum's TS% was only .07% higher, so it's not as if Batum blew Webster away. And even then, it was mainly because Webster took much more shots than Batum. FTA just shows that Webster wasn't as limited to open jumpers as Batum was. (Both of them really are limited to jumpers, but Webster less so)

That's a major factor in a significant improvement in raw stats. Development (skills improving, muscle added, experience with NBA speed) is what leads to actual improvement. I don't know if Batum will play 30 MPG. I think he should, because Portland was a top offense last year with Batum playing...if they want to improve their defense, I think they should play Batum, their best perimeter defender, more. But however many minutes he plays, I expect him to be better in those minutes...more effective on offense, more effective on defense.

The Blazers were a good offensive team in general, and it had less to do with Batum than it did with every other player on the team. His contributions on that end are much less than of Blake's, Roy's, Joel's, Aldridge's etc., and I don't think that can be disputed. Next year, I expect him to become a better defender, but I don't think he will improve his incredibly raw offense.

I agree that Rudy is better right now, but I think Batum is the better talent and will close the gap significantly on Rudy over the next couple of years.

We disagree then. Rudy has a much better feel for the game, obviously that comes with his age and experience. I think we have a chance to win within the next few years, so I'm willing to put off developing Batum (and Webster) if it means more minutes for Rudy.

If anyone's minutes are lost (from last year's team), I'd want it to be Outlaw (though he can and should suck up all minutes that went to Frye/Diogu/Ruffin/Randolph).

I agree. He'll take up the 12 minutes at PF that Aldridge doesn't play, and the 4-5 minutes that the crappers played. Even still, you know McMillan is going to play him some at SF every game, even if he says otherwise.

I don't see a lot of minutes for Webster. Regardless of which of us is right, Webster is certainly no difference-maker on offense. Considering that he's also a mediocre defender, I think he'll have a hard time getting serious minutes. Unless he's improved a lot since 2007-08, which is possible and would be great...I just wouldn't bet on it.

No, but he's still significantly more effective than Nicolas in my opinion. I don't expect him to win the starting position right off the bat, since he is coming back from a significant injury. In the end, I don't see many minutes for Webster or Batum, but I'd rather have Webster playing those limited minutes.

 

[VanillaGorilla]

Nic usually guarded the opponent's tougher wing each night, and that wasn't necessarily the SF. Heck I'm recalling Tony Parker lighting up the Blazers early on in the season... they then played a couple games close together vs the Spurs where Nic spent a good deal of time shadowing TP with pretty decent results.

Like I said, the opinion of his D is pretty unanimous... keep being a Webster homer if you must.

STOMP

That does not mean it is right. Do you believe everything a bunch of other people believe just because they believe it. That PER rating is very telling to me, as the vast majority of the time Batum was guarding SFs. There is no evidence to say that Batum is THAT MUCH better than Webster at defense. And in my opinion, Webster has more potential on defense than Batum does, if only because of his body type. It is also my opinion that Webster is better/more versatile on offense. And I do not deny that I am a Webster fan. But I am also a Batum fan and I just see Webster as the better player.

 

[B-Roy]

Oh, and just to be clear, I do think that Batum is a better defender than Webster; slightly better at guarding SFs and SGs, and a more versatile defender in general because of his length. I don't think though, that it is enough to cover up his deficiencies on the offensive end, and that was clearly shown in the playoffs.

 

[VanillaGorilla]

Oh, and just to be clear, I do think that Batum is a better defender than Webster; slightly better at guarding SFs and SGs, and a more versatile defender in general because of his length. I don't think though, that it is enough to cover up his deficiencies on the offensive end, and that was clearly shown in the playoffs.

I also feel this way if that wasn't clear.

 

[andalusian]

What, that they are comparable defenders at the moment? Youth is pretty much irrelevant, Webster is only 22, and since we're in a position to win now, I'd rather take the better player on offense, Webster.

They are not the same. They had the same defensive win score but Batum did it in 2/3 of the time - which tells you he was a better defender by quite a nice margin with a lot less experience.

Webster's DWS as a rookie was 0.1 in more than a 1000 minutes...

And... the idea that Webster is a better player on offense is funny - because he never was...

 

[Nikolokolus]

Oh, and just to be clear, I do think that Batum is a better defender than Webster; slightly better at guarding SFs and SGs, and a more versatile defender in general because of his length. I don't think though, that it is enough to cover up his deficiencies on the offensive end, and that was clearly shown in the playoffs.

Maybe I'm being extremely naive, but I think we're going to see a much more aggressive player on offense this season. Nic was a major part of the French team's offensive attack during Eurobasket play and while people will point to that and say it's not the same as the NBA, this was also a role Nic has never really played in any of his previous international competition ... Maybe I'm crazy, but I think we're going to see a substantial leap in the development of his game this season.

 

[B-Roy]

And... the idea that Webster is a better player on offense is funny - because he never was...

Significantly better than Batum.

I can't believe how overrated Batum as become. People are actually defending his offensive performance last year. Utter balls.

 

[STOMP]

That does not mean it is right. Do you believe everything a bunch of other people believe just because they believe it.

exactly how many autographed Martell jerseys do you own? You're flailing

this questionable opinion is held by both the head coach and GM, and the stats back it up. What sort of sig bet would you like to make on which player starts more games and plays more minutes? Of course if one guy suffered a significant injury it would be off.

STOMP

 

[mook]

Batum's clearly the better player.

However, even if you disagree, you have to acknowledge that Batum's rookie performance was at least comparable to Webster's third year. A 19 year old rookie who started the year barely speaking any English on a 54 win team performed as well or better than a third-year American who put up his numbers on a 41 win team.

Even Roy has said it's only a matter of time and effort before Batum is a star in this league. Pretty strong endorsement for a rookie.

 

[andalusian]

Significantly better than Batum.

Webster's 3rd year (best) vs. Nic's rookie year, only offensive stats:

http://www.basketball-reference.com...m=0&p1=batumni01&y1=2009&p2=webstma02&y2=2008

FG% - Nic > Webster
3P% - Webster > Nic
FT% - Nic > Webster
eFG% - Nic > Webster
TS% - Nic > Webster
AST% - Nic > Webster
ORB% - Nic > Webster
PER - Nic > Webster

Yeah - Webster is better than Nic in one category only(*), and even that is not significant...

Webster is a nice role player that might be ready to become better - but he has never been a better offensive player than Nic in the NBA.

(*) For the record - Webster got his output with a higher usage% than Nic - one assumes that as Nic matures and becomes more experienced - the coaching staff will use him more and give him more minutes. It is amazing that the "overrated" rookie, used less than the 3-year veteran and playing mostly for his defensive acumen - was a better offensive player than said-veteran...

 

[Paxil]

Under your definition Dennis Rodman would be a good offensive player... but I am not buying that.

 

[magnifier661]

Well for the most part, I wish him the best for this season. He has all the attributes to be a significant role player on this team. His NBA body is one that many in the league wish they have. If he can get past that "mental block" that's plagued him so many times throughout his career, he would be a serious force to be reckoned with.

I would love to see a more "mild mannered" Webster, with the exception of wanting to force other teams to guard him from driving to the rim. His outside shot is the decoy, not his #1 option. I want to see him use that, to gain space so he has enough room to go hard to the rim. He's either going to get fouled, or have a nice poster dunk on their "big man"

 

[PtldPlatypus]

Well for the most part, I wish him the best for this season. He has all the attributes to be a significant role player on this team. His NBA body is one that many in the league wish they have. If he can get past that "mental block" that's plagued him so many times throughout his career, he would be a serious force to be reckoned with.

I would love to see a more "mild mannered" Webster, with the exception of wanting to force other teams to guard him from driving to the rim. His outside shot is the decoy, not his #1 option. I want to see him use that, to gain space so he has enough room to go hard to the rim. He's either going to get fouled, or have a nice poster dunk on their "big man"

This is the second post of yours where you commented on how great Webster's body is. Maybe I'm being old-fashioned, but I think he's a little young for you, Mags.

 

[magnifier661]

This is the second post of yours where you commented on how great Webster's body is. Maybe I'm being old-fashioned, but I think he's a little young for you, Mags.

LMAO! HAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHHAHAHAHA

 

[VanillaGorilla]

exactly how many autographed Martell jerseys do you own? You're flailing

this questionable opinion is held by both the head coach and GM, and the stats back it up. What sort of sig bet would you like to make on which player starts more games and plays more minutes? Of course if one guy suffered a significant injury it would be off.

STOMP

None, actually.

I have never said that Webster is a better defender than Batum, only that Batum is not as much better as most people seem to think.

 

[Minstrel]

I can't believe how overrated Batum as become. People are actually defending his offensive performance last year. Utter balls.

You're angry and confused. I haven't seen anyone here claim that Batum was a good offensive player. People here are pointing out that Webster is just as bad on offense.

So, let's rework your sentence: "I can't believe how overrated Webster as become. People are actually defending his offensive performance his last three healthy years. Utter balls."

Both players were poor offensive players the last time we saw them play meaningful games. Webster's poor performance was part of a three-year stagnation. Batum's was in his rookie season, at a younger age. So, Batum actually has a significant hope of improving. And he plays good defense.

 

[VanillaGorilla]

I think you are confused. He was saying they both aren't very good on offense but he believes that Webster is better, and so do I.

And Webster doesn't have hope of improving? His rookie season he was a year younger than Batum and he is still only 22. Webster also plays good defense.

 

[magnifier661]

I think you are confused. He was saying they both aren't very good on offense but he believes that Webster is better, and so do I.

And Webster doesn't have hope of improving? His rookie season he was a year younger than Batum and he is still only 22. Webster also plays good defense.

As far as offensive ability, Webster is purely more offensively talented than Batum. The reason the jury is out on Webster is all mental. If he chooses to use the gifts God gave him, he would be a monster. Getting to that point is what's in question.

But IMO, I think getting there would be much easier if the coaching staff tried to motivate him to attack the rim. Get fouled, get easy points going to the line, and make damn sure you play hard defense.

That will negate more confidence, which will negate him gambling more offensively, which negates to Blazer success.

 

[BBert]

I always thought it was a coaching mistake to camp Martell out in the corner, let him stand and think too much, then occassionally pass him the ball and expect him to shoot it and make it cold and flat-footed. It is the common interpretation that the kid was all psyched out. In my personal experience I'd much rather move without the ball, be involved with running plays, and take a variety of shots within the offense when I'm juiced up and not thinking about it. Kind of the way young Martell was used in a certain mythical quarter a couple of years ago.

 

[Minstrel]

I think you are confused. He was saying they both aren't very good on offense but he believes that Webster is better, and so do I.

He was saying he couldn't believe people were "defending" Batum's offensive performance, as if people were arguing that Batum did well offensively. That is what I was referring to. No one is extolling Batum's offensive virtues from last season; people were pointing out that Webster hasn't contributed significantly more on offense.

And Webster doesn't have hope of improving?

He does, but it's quite a bit less since he hasn't improved in three years of play.

Webster also plays good defense.

We'll have to agree to disagree. He may have the tools to be a solid defender...he doesn't actually defend well, as far as I'm concerned.

 

[mgb]

Can't wait until the season starts for we can see both of them playing! You think there will be times when Webster is the SG and Batum is in as SF?

 

[Minstrel]

Can't wait until the season starts for we can see both of them playing! You think there will be times when Webster is the SG and Batum is in as SF?

Considering shooting guard is even more stocked, with Roy and Fernandez both needing time, it's hard to envision Webster getting minutes there.