I felt that way about Matt Ryan. Luck is definitely a damn good QB. But, I look back to last years draft and think that the Rams made a big mistake going with Bradford ahead of Suh. Suh is the type of player that can change a whole defense and instantly make the rest of his D-line a whole lot better.
I agree with you about Suh, but I think Bradford was legitimately the most talented player in the draft. I think he's going to be a star. What sealed it for me was when Gil Brandt, at Bradford's workout, said that he had not seen a more impressive quarterback workout since Troy Aikman's. Combine that with his very polished, poised play in college and I think you have a truly blue chip prospect.
Another great example was the draft when Texans made the right choice and took Mario Williams over Bush. You work them out at the combines, study tape religiously and make your decision. Don't pick a player, especially in football, because that player is at the position that needs to be filled.
I've made plenty of mistakes on draft predictions, but this is one I actually got right.
I took a lot of abuse when I said, in football discussions, that the Texans didn't make a silly choice. That was for two reasons: I felt Bush was overrated, that he was killing college defenses with athleticism that wouldn't kill NFL defenses and his elusiveness was not good enough (ala Barry Sanders) to succeed as an every-down scatback. Plus, defensive end is just a much more impact position. A premium pass rusher is more impactful than a premium running back, if talent is equal. And I thought Williams' talent was higher.
Alex Smith was taken that high because they needed a QB and he was the best one that was coming out. Nevermind that he ran the spread primarily at Utah. To most, it was a no brainer that Aaron Rodgers should have been the pick for the 9ers and they would have never been in the situation they are currently in.
It was not a no-brainer at all. Rodgers, based on everything known up to that point, would have been a massive reach at the #1 pick. No one, not even Green Bay, would have selected him #1. He was only linked to the 49ers because they needed a quarterback and he came from a similar WCO system at Cal. His talent, as evaluated at the time, didn't warrant the top pick.
Of course, I didn't want Alex Smith either. I felt he was a reach at #1, too. I didn't want them to reach for a quarterback. I wanted (and here comes my own error) them to select Braylon Edwards. I felt he was the most talented player in the draft. Coming into the draft, he was an Andre Johnson like prospect.
Oops.
I don't think Luck will be a reach at all. I think he's legitimately the best talent in the draft, if he comes out.
