Oregon in the 'natty' again?
What if Stanford, Oklahoma State and/or LSU lose? What then might happen in the BCS national title game?
ESPN's Brad Edwards looks into some
scenarios for next tier teams, including Oregon, if things were to go haywire.
Here's what Edwards writes about Oregon:
Argument for: After losing their opener, the Ducks can close the season on a 12-game winning streak, with their only loss having come against the nation's No. 1 team on a neutral field.
Argument against: If LSU is undefeated and sitting at No. 1 in the BCS standings, putting Oregon at No. 2 would create a rematch of a regular-season game. And if Alabama also finishes with one loss, there would be another rematch candidate that had a more competitive game with LSU.
Ideal scenario: Oklahoma State loses to Texas Tech then beats Oklahoma; Alabama loses to Auburn. It's hard to say whether Oregon would also need Boise State to lose, but it couldn't hurt.
Of course, there are elements that are hard to measure. For example: If Oregon decisively wins at Stanford, how far does it jump in the coaches' and Harris polls, which count in the BCS standings? It's possible the Ducks could become the top one-loss team, even ahead of Alabama.
A lot could come down to pollsters trying to manage the matchup -- promoting and demoting based on their visions of who should play in the title game -- and the often befuddling computers. Duh! -- I know -- but the point is last year's Oregon-Auburn matchup was obvious. This year's matchup might not be.
At 12-1, Oregon likely would eclipse unbeaten Boise State, even if pollsters voted Boise State ahead of the Ducks, which they might not even do. That would be controversial, no doubt.
The Ducks' chances aren't good. But they do have a chance.
Writes Edwards:
If Oklahoma State and Stanford both fall, or even if LSU were to lose, there's a good chance the computers will have a big say in the BCS championship game matchup. There are several scenarios in which a team ranked No. 2 in the polls might not be as strong in the computers as the No. 3 team in the polls, which could lead to controversy and an opportunity for a split national championship.
With there also being the possibility that an undefeated Boise State could be jilted for a rematch between two teams from the same conference, this could easily become a season that will be talked about for years to come. And with the next format of the BCS being determined this coming summer, who knows what changes might result from a memorable end to 2011?
http://espn.go.com/blog/pac12/post/_/id/29381/oregon-in-the-natty-again
