No more proof needed than this that McMillan is bordering on Anal Retentive insanity:

[OddEnormous]

Re: No more proof needed than this that McMillan is bordering on Anal Retentive insan

i hate it when stats get in the way

PER is not "stats"

The guy who invented PER isn't even sure about it.

 

[OddEnormous]

Re: No more proof needed than this that McMillan is bordering on Anal Retentive insan

lol...dude...smoke some pot

Great post "bro"

 

[OddEnormous]

Re: No more proof needed than this that McMillan is bordering on Anal Retentive insan

Batum is WAY better.

I suppose that's an opinion that could be argued. I've seen quite a few games this year where he's gone missing.

That said he's had a few good games here recently.

 

[DaRizzle]

Re: No more proof needed than this that McMillan is bordering on Anal Retentive insan

PER is not "stats"

The guy who invented PER isn't even sure about it.

I know exactly what PER is and its a perfect rebuttal to your "nobody improved" rant...You then point out you understand that injuries could have hampered this supposed "no improvement"...Somebody points to their PER that has SIGNIFICANTLY improved and then you rag on them for their injuries.

If youre gonna go crazy at least keep your crazy story consistent...bro

 

[Ed O]

Re: No more proof needed than this that McMillan is bordering on Anal Retentive insan

I don't care if we run or not, although I'd tend to vote against it because slow-paced teams seem to be more successful in the playoffs over time... but I'd tend to vote for running because (a) it's more fun to watch, and (b) I think our depth will be more to our advantage in an up-tempo game.

Overall, I don't really care. I DO wonder where all the people who claim that Nate McMillan was going to let (or even MAKE) the team run this year are.

I'm sure we'll have the same discussion in the offseason about Nate "wanting to run" and people will ignore another year of Nate coaching one of the slowest-paced teams in the NBA.

Ed O.

 

[MickZagger]

Re: No more proof needed than this that McMillan is bordering on Anal Retentive insan

I don't care if we run or not, although I'd tend to vote against it because slow-paced teams seem to be more successful in the playoffs over time... but I'd tend to vote for running because (a) it's more fun to watch, and (b) I think our depth will be more to our advantage in an up-tempo game.

Overall, I don't really care. I DO wonder where all the people who claim that Nate McMillan was going to let (or even MAKE) the team run this year are.

I'm sure we'll have the same discussion in the offseason about Nate "wanting to run" and people will ignore another year of Nate coaching one of the slowest-paced teams in the NBA.

Ed O.

Its not like a team has to be one or the other. Good teams run when the opportunity presents itself. This team is a lot different though than last year when Blake would have numbers and insisted on pulling it back and setting something up nearly everytime. Take Oden out of the lineup and it makes it a lot easier as well.

 

[OddEnormous]

Re: No more proof needed than this that McMillan is bordering on Anal Retentive insan

I know exactly what PER is

A formula whose inventor questions it's validity.

Pardon me if I don't kneel before it as some sort of devine truth.

Finally their PER being better over 19 games than it was over 82 is hardly proof they've significantly improved even if one was to accept the modern Dodo Bird that is PER.

 

[DaRizzle]

Re: No more proof needed than this that McMillan is bordering on Anal Retentive insan

Allowed:
saying they did not display better all around play in those "19" games with no stats to back it up

Not Allowed:
saying they did played better than the previous season in those "19" games and using a stat

So your opinion is valid even though its 19 games while Stomps opinion based on a stat attained in those 19 games is not valid because well....well because its ONLY 19 games


gotcha

 

[oldmangrouch]

Re: No more proof needed than this that McMillan is bordering on Anal Retentive insan

While some good points have been raised on both sides, I think Maris actually nailed it. The best teams take advantage of *every* weapon at their disposal.

You don't have to be a "fast break team" to score "opportunity" points in transition. IMHO, Nate confuses time of possesion with "discipline" and "efficiency". A good shot is a good shot whether you take it in the first 6 seconds or the last 6 seconds.

 

[OddEnormous]

Re: No more proof needed than this that McMillan is bordering on Anal Retentive insan

Allowed:
saying they did not display better all around play in those "19" games with no stats to back it up

Not Allowed:
saying they did played better than the previous season in those "19" games and using a stat

So your opinion is valid even though its 19 games while Stomps opinion based on a stat attained in those 19 games is not valid because well....well because its ONLY 19 games


gotcha

Not allowed: calling PER as "stats"

Nic Batum scored 5 points and collected 2 RB's tonight.

That's WAY worse than his last 2 games. I guess he's on an uncontrollable downward spiral..... OR 1 game is too small a sample to measure.

Which do you think it is?

 

[UKRAINEFAN]

Re: No more proof needed than this that McMillan is bordering on Anal Retentive insan

I don't like watching this team this year. I find it a chore and a tedious undertaking. In fact I usually just zone out until like the middle of the 3rd. I never get the feeling that if I'm not watching I'm going to miss something spectacular. Last year I did. Almost every game I did.

I agree with this to some extent; there have only been a couple games I have really enjoyed watching; today, despite winning by a big margin was uninspiring.

 

[Tince]

Re: No more proof needed than this that McMillan is bordering on Anal Retentive insan

Outscoring the Pacers in all 4 quarters and scoring over 100+ for the 6th straight game, yet people are still unhappy. I'm sure there is plenty of room on the Suns, Raptors, Warriors, and 76ers bandwagons if you want a faster Pace team to be entertained by!

 

[DaRizzle]

Re: No more proof needed than this that McMillan is bordering on Anal Retentive insan

Not allowed: calling PER as "stats"

to get a general snapshot its fine....small increses I would agree with you put approx a 5 point increase....thats a marked increase in productivity

PER is calculated using the "standard stats" so yeah....for your lame argument it works just fine especially with the significant increase across the board

 

[OddEnormous]

Re: No more proof needed than this that McMillan is bordering on Anal Retentive insan

PER is calculated using the "standard stats" so yeah....for your lame argument it works just fine especially with the significant increase across the board

What????

It's only a quarter of the time measured from the previous season.

You can keep typing PER all night. It won't change the fact that it's just a formula some guy who works for ESPN came up with who's not too interested in defending it.

I'm sure you're familiar with the now famous OKC Team PER which showed they were "better" with Durant on the bench.

You may or may not remember that Portland opened with a pretty tame schedule. Could be one factor that led to Oden's increase... I don't know. Doesn't seem right to draw the conclusion a player is significantly better based on 20 games even with the modern day Jesus, PER.

 

[Tince]

Re: No more proof needed than this that McMillan is bordering on Anal Retentive insan

What????

It's only a quarter of the time measured from the previous season.

You can keep typing PER all night. It won't change the fact that it's just a formula some guy who works for ESPN came up with who's not too interested in defending it.

I'm sure you're familiar with the now famous OKC Team PER which showed they were "better" with Durant on the bench.

You may or may not remember that Portland opened with a pretty tame schedule. Could be one factor that led to Oden's increase.

The eyeball test doesn't tell you that Batum and Oden were better than the previous season? I think it's fairly clear...

 

[DaRizzle]

Re: No more proof needed than this that McMillan is bordering on Anal Retentive insan

What????

It's only a quarter of the time measured from the previous season.

You can keep typing PER all night. It won't change the fact that it's just a formula some guy who works for ESPN came up with who's not too interested in defending it.

I'm sure you're familiar with the now famous OKC Team PER which showed they were "better" with Durant on the bench.

You may or may not remember that Portland opened with a pretty tame schedule. Could be one factor that led to Oden's increase... I don't know. Doesn't seem right to draw the conclusion a player is significantly better based on 20 games even with the modern day Jesus, PER.

Yet YOU can draw the conclusion they havent improved from the same sample games....give me a fucking break

 

[OddEnormous]

Re: No more proof needed than this that McMillan is bordering on Anal Retentive insan

Yet YOU can draw the conclusion they havent improved from the same sample games....give me a fucking break

It's an opinion you tart

I watched about 85% of the games last year and about 80% of the games this year.

God forbid I'd use my human brain to draw a conclusion without John Hollingers help. Not sure how the basketball world existed without him the first 60 years to be honest.

I mean if it wasn't for him I never would have known OKC was a better team without Kevin Durant.

Thanks JH!

 

[UKRAINEFAN]

Re: No more proof needed than this that McMillan is bordering on Anal Retentive insan

I've noticed a lot of people around here have the "grass is greener on the other side" view of things. They think most teams have a lot more sets than us and that we run only one or two plays. They think other teams run these awesome plays and are not the least bit predictable, but that simply isn't true either. Based on all the games I've logged, I would rank Portland in the top half for variety of sets. They are average or slightly above when it comes to predictability down the stretch. They are much better in the ball movement category than lots of teams (I'd guess top 7-8).

That's a good point and it reminds me of why I took so long to become an NBA fan. College basketball is really a lot more fast paced and up and down; some games are just crazy fun! But I like following an NBA team because the players stick around for a long time and you can watch them progress, and there is the draft and trading which is really enjoyable to speculate about. Maybe I should try to find an NBA team that plays more exciting basketball, but I got started with Portland a long time ago and it's really hard for me to switch allegiances.

By the way, even though this thread was started as an anti-Nate thread; I am not anti-Nate and I think the roots of non-exciting basketball are many, including our personnel and maybe even the size of the court (I have a theory that today's players are just too big and fast for a court that has never got any bigger). But also I do agree with those who say that if a coach really wants a faster game, he can make it happen.

 

[Cake]

Re: No more proof needed than this that McMillan is bordering on Anal Retentive insan

What????

It's only a quarter of the time measured from the previous season.

You can keep typing PER all night. It won't change the fact that it's just a formula some guy who works for ESPN came up with who's not too interested in defending it.

I'm sure you're familiar with the now famous OKC Team PER which showed they were "better" with Durant on the bench.

You may or may not remember that Portland opened with a pretty tame schedule. Could be one factor that led to Oden's increase... I don't know. Doesn't seem right to draw the conclusion a player is significantly better based on 20 games even with the modern day Jesus, PER.

OKC probably was better with Durant on the bench...two years ago.

Durant SUCKED in his rookie season. He absolutely sucked. If you don't recognize that, that's your fault. PER or not, there's no getting around it. He shot a horrid % from the floor. Shot well under 30% from three. He didn't rebound. Didn't pass. Turned it over a ton. Rejecting a statistical measurement because, in hindsight, the guy improves is idiotic.

 

[BGrantFan]

Re: No more proof needed than this that McMillan is bordering on Anal Retentive insan

Outscoring the Pacers in all 4 quarters and scoring over 100+ for the 6th straight game, yet people are still unhappy. I'm sure there is plenty of room on the Suns, Raptors, Warriors, and 76ers bandwagons if you want a faster Pace team to be entertained by!

Last night, at one point, fastbreak points were 14-14 on the scoreboard at the RG. The Blazers led by 20 points. The Pacers had a much higher % of points via fast break. I'll take the former over the latter.

 

[BGrantFan]

Re: No more proof needed than this that McMillan is bordering on Anal Retentive insan

Originally Posted by Tince
I've noticed a lot of people around here have the "grass is greener on the other side" view of things. They think most teams have a lot more sets than us and that we run only one or two plays. They think other teams run these awesome plays and are not the least bit predictable, but that simply isn't true either. Based on all the games I've logged, I would rank Portland in the top half for variety of sets. They are average or slightly above when it comes to predictability down the stretch. They are much better in the ball movement category than lots of teams (I'd guess top 7-8).

After a month of reading all of the criticisms by the Red Auerbachs here, I decided to focus on offensive sets last night, and mgb's end zone tickets afforded an excellent angle to do this. I was amazed at how many different entry patterns the Blazers ran, and there were even a few times where Nate ran pick and rolls with Rudy as the point and Cunningham setting the screen. The Blazers pushed pace at every opportunity, and while it didn't lead to a ton of fastbreak points, it did lead to some nice secondary fastbreak offense that led to wide open shots because the Pacers were out of position.

The "PER" debate probably deserves its own thread, but typically, when one opinion is based on discrediting a "stat", and the other opinion is based on that "stat", then it's obvious to me who has the opinion that is more based in the available information. Not that either is incorrect, but bashing people for holding the opinion based on the "stat" seems a bit out there.

 

[OddEnormous]

Re: No more proof needed than this that McMillan is bordering on Anal Retentive insan

Rejecting a statistical measurement because, in hindsight, the guy improves is idiotic.

Agreed. Thank goodness that's not what I've done.

We are not talking about his rookie season.

HTH

This "statistical measurement" isn't even totally accepted by it's inventor. If he doesn't have total faith in it, I can't for the life of me understand why any of you do.

And for the 47th time stat boys... I don't give a flying about sports stat formulas.

 

[OddEnormous]

Re: No more proof needed than this that McMillan is bordering on Anal Retentive insan

but bashing people for holding the opinion based on the "stat" seems a bit out there.

Are you serious? Bashing people for using PER?

The only people who get bashed are the ones who DON'T suck from it's teet.

The problem here is the opinion that PER is the atomic bomb of basketball stats. That there's just no way you can have an opinion on a player or a team unless you have john hollingers fantasy formula from the cup of Christ.

 

[Nikolokolus]

Re: No more proof needed than this that McMillan is bordering on Anal Retentive insan

Are you serious? Bashing people for using PER?

The only people who get bashed are the ones who DON'T suck from it's teet.

The problem here is the opinion that PER is the atomic bomb of basketball stats. That there's just no way you can have an opinion on a player or a team unless you have john hollingers fantasy formula from the cup of Christ.

The A-bomb of basketball stats is adjusted plus-minus. Duh.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

Re: No more proof needed than this that McMillan is bordering on Anal Retentive insan

The A-bomb of basketball stats is adjusted plus-minus. Duh.

Thank you, Mr. Winston.

 

[OddEnormous]

Re: No more proof needed than this that McMillan is bordering on Anal Retentive insan

The A-bomb of basketball stats is adjusted plus-minus. Duh.

 

[andalusian]

Re: No more proof needed than this that McMillan is bordering on Anal Retentive insan

The nice thing about PER is that it allows you to have some comparison between players on different teams and between different years. What APM really helps you do is compare players within the context of their own team. It makes more sense to talk about how player player A is vs. Player B from the same team - for the team's success.

It is a lot harder to use APM to compare players from different teams and different years.

There is no one number that will catch everything that happens in a basketball game - it is simply too complicated a game with too many variables in it - and it is a team game first (even if individual performance in basketball is more important than other team games) - but PER is a pretty good way to get a quick grasp of a player's efficiency and it does a very nice job of measuring it and comparing it between players on different teams and, more important - between years (to keep it in the context of this thread). It is especially relevant when it comes to offensive production.

 

[STOMP]

Batum is WAY better. However, even being a pro-Nate guy, I would attribute most of that to his international play this summer and work with Monty after he came back.

I certainly think it was clear Greg was improved when healthy.

Overall, I think your beef with Nate that he doesn't develop talent is understandable.

how so? Certainly Roy and LA developed during Nate's tenure here. Batum Bayless and Greg all seem to be on their way as well. Cunningham is getting plenty of run too.

I find the PER issues OddE is siting to be pretty unfounded. Most of the raw and advanced stats reflect the same improvements for the players I sited. Not to waste too much of my morning but here's Oden's rates compared to last year (per minute when appropriate)

Pnts +13%, FG% +4%, FT% +13%, Rbs +10%, Assts +75%, Stls -15%, Blks +79%, Fouls -8%

The advanced stats compiled by various sources reflect these same positive trends regardless of if it's Hollinger's PER or whatever. A brief glance at stats from JB and NB suggest they have shown even more dramatic improvement.

okay off to work

STOMP

 

[OddEnormous]

Re: No more proof needed than this that McMillan is bordering on Anal Retentive insan

how so? Certainly Roy and LA developed during Nate's tenure here. Batum Bayless and Greg all seem to be on their way as well. Cunningham is getting plenty of run too.

I find the PER issues OddE is siting to be pretty unfounded. Most of the raw and advanced stats reflect the same improvements for the players I sited. Not to waste too much of my morning but here's Oden's rates compared to last year (per minute when appropriate)

Pnts +13%, FG% +4%, FT% +13%, Rbs +10%, Assts +75%, Stls -15%, Blks +79%, Fouls -8%

The advanced stats compiled by various sources reflect these same positive trends regardless of if it's Hollinger's PER or whatever. A brief glance at stats from JB and NB suggest they have shown even more dramatic improvement.

okay off to work

STOMP

The problem with PER is that basketball is not a straight up numbers game.

End of.

There's too many other factors involved.

Bad shots can still go in. Terrible selfish players can have huge PER numbers. THE PHX suns players are going to have better numbers that PDX Blazers.

There's emotion.

There's clutch players.

there's chokers

there's players more valuable because they are leaders.

Unbalanced schedules

Theres more good teams in the west than the east.

Theres more good teams in one Conf than there is in another.

Theres garbage time.

How much garbage time was played compared with the season before.

Was the player rushed into duty he wasn't ready for his rookie season giving him a low PER but now he plays in garbage time or a better situation for THAT particular player so now it's sky rocketed.

Players played out of position because of injury.

Having a better PER does not instantly prove you have improved. There might be 1000 other factors that led to a better PER number.

BASKETBALL

IS

NOT

A

NUMBERS

GAME

It's unlike any of the Big 4 sports that way. (Hockey might be similar)

 

[andalusian]

Re: No more proof needed than this that McMillan is bordering on Anal Retentive insan

The problem with PER is that basketball is not a straight up numbers game.

There's too many other factors involved.

This is true for just about anything that is not trivial in life, and yet, statistics are there and can give you a pretty good measure of these things. All the things that you mentioned are very nice - and true, but all of them average to a mean you can discuss with a certain degree of confidence and margin of error - the basic math behind these kind of statistical evaluations will tell you that with enough data (that's the sample size we keep on mentioning) - you can get answers that you can be very confident in.

There are tons of factors involved in things that are much more important than basketball - such as reaction to drugs and treatments, for example - and yet, in these things that can be "life and death" issues - statistics are often used to make these decisions about what drugs are safe and what drugs are not.

Statistics is a way to give numerical values to things you can not measure directly, and luckily the calculus behind gives you ways to measure the confidence levels and margins of error about them.

I would argue that Batum's small sample size makes the numbers questionable so far, simply said - the sample size is not large enough to give you the confidence level and small enough margin of error to say without doubt that he made a big improvement over last year (even if the eye and the small sample size say he does) - but I would argue that JB's sample size is big enough to be able to say that the measures of his improvement are more likely than not to be real.