"Not Spending, Buying"

[Nikolokolus]

That doesn't really make sense. Pritchard isn't looking for another GM to "do him a solid." Major trades aren't generally due to camaraderie and the desire to help a fellow GM out. A major trade happens because both teams feel it helps them.

You're viewing this in the wrong context, as if it is Pritchard against a unified front of all other GMs...like the NBA just wants anyone but Portland to win and individual teams don't care who wins so long as it isn't Portland. If a team feels it'll get a competitive advantage against everyone else, they'll do a trade with Pritchard. It's not like a GM is going to think, "Well, this trade would really help my team out...but wait! Pritchard only has 6 more months to use that cap space...I could really screw him by not doing a deal!"

Basically, Pritchard has about a year to find a deal that helps Portland and that another franchise feels helps themselves out. I don't think the chances of a deal go down with every passing day, beyond the obvious that he has one day less to find a deal. That is, I don't think there's a psychological element in the rest of the GMs at work over the "expiration date" on the cap space. They want to save money / add talent as quickly as possibly for their own purposes.

Actually I'm looking at in the context of KP probably feeling increasing pressure to get something done as the clock nears midnight, so I'm definitely assuming there is a psychological component (for both KP and for other GMs). I think we tend to assume that a lot of these deals exist in a kind of cold, logical business-like approach when in fact many teams are run like a rich man's hobby where many owners and GMs could be just as likely to make emotional decisions as they are to base their actions on the bottom line.

As for a rival GM "doing him a solid" I was being somewhat facetious. But I do believe that if the trade deadline approaches and then passes and then if the last days of June dwindle away with nothing having been done, KP would be much more likely to take something just to get some value out of his asset rather than let it evaporate into thin air.

The best way I can express what I'm thinking is through an analogy. Think of it as a man on a deserted island with a chest of gold and a limited supply of water. A boat comes along and offers to rescue the man if he'll part with some of his gold. Initially the man easily declines because he feels that if he holds out long enough another boat is likely to come by and offer him a rescue without demanding any of his treasure. Time passes, the water is starting to run out and the original boat returns to offer to pick him up again only this time they double their price, the man on the deserted island knows options are running out, the water is low and he's beginning to feel a pang of desperation that he's unlikely to get a better offer.

Now of course KP isn't going to die if he doesn't do a trade and the analogy isn't perfect because it's possible that there will be teams desperate to shed salary at some point in the next year, but after the firesale that occured with Vince Carter, Richard Jefferson and Shaq It seems like desperate sellers would have taken care of their business before July 1st not after. I guess we'll see what happens.

 

[Minstrel]

The best way I can express what I'm thinking is through an analogy. Think of it as a man on a deserted island with a chest of gold and a limited supply of water. A boat comes along and offers to rescue the man if he'll part with some of his gold. Initially the man easily declines because he feels that if he holds out long enough another boat is likely to come by and offer him a rescue without demanding any of his treasure. Time passes, the water is starting to run out and the original boat returns to offer to pick him up again only this time they double their price, the man on the deserted island knows options are running out, the water is low and he's beginning to feel a pang of desperation that he's unlikely to get a better offer.

There are a few problems with this analogy to me:

1. You've written it as a situation where Pritchard is rich but in a dire situation. In reality, every team is in an equally "dire" situation, with assets they want and assets they are willing to trade and the need to find a way to get one with the other. The cap space has an expiry date but that expiration date also puts a deadline on other teams wanting financial relief. If the cap space evaporates without a deal, not only does Pritchard lose, but any team that needed financial relief also loses.

2. This implicitly assumes only one boat and that that boat knows it will be the only boat. If it thinks there may be other boats later if it doesn't make a deal now, it will be less likely to try to drive a hard bargain. After all, if this boat drives too hard a bargain, it gets nothing and perhaps the next boat gets some treasure for a bargain because it was more reasonable. This is the market dynamic that works in Pritchard's favour that is absent from your analogy.

3. Pritchard has proven that he doesn't swerve first in a game of chicken. He took enormous heat on this forum for not trading the RLEC at the deadline, but one thing it did accomplish was to prove to GMs that even if he's threatened with passing a deadline without making a deal, he won't just give up and give it to someone for anything. That will help him going forward, as GMs know they can't "wait him out." In your analogy, he's willing to "die" (and take the treasure into the grave with him) rather than give the treasure away. Whether or not you like that sentiment, it does force GMs to bargain more reasonably if they want what he has to offer. They won't just get it for pennies on the dollar at 11:59. Pritchard has proven that.

 

[barfo]

The best way I can express what I'm thinking is through an analogy. Think of it as a man on a deserted island with a chest of gold and a limited supply of water. A boat comes along and offers to rescue the man if he'll part with some of his gold. Initially the man easily declines because he feels that if he holds out long enough another boat is likely to come by and offer him a rescue without demanding any of his treasure. Time passes, the water is starting to run out and the original boat returns to offer to pick him up again only this time they double their price, the man on the deserted island knows options are running out, the water is low and he's beginning to feel a pang of desperation that he's unlikely to get a better offer.

If I'm on the boat and I know he has a chest of gold and little water, I just wait for him to die and then take the gold. Or I invite him and his gold on board and then make him walk the plank. Arrrr!

barfo

 

[Minstrel]

If I'm on the boat and I know he has a chest of gold and little water, I just wait for him to die and then take the gold. Or I invite him and his gold on board and then make him walk the plank. Arrrr!

Hired goons are probably the best leverage to a Chris Paul deal. To bring your analogy plea for violence back into the real world.

 

[oldmangrouch]

If I'm on the boat and I know he has a chest of gold and little water, I just wait for him to die and then take the gold. Or I invite him and his gold on board and then make him walk the plank. Arrrr!

barfo

Sadly, my mind went to the exact same place.

 

[Nikolokolus]

If I'm on the boat and I know he has a chest of gold and little water, I just wait for him to die and then take the gold. Or I invite him and his gold on board and then make him walk the plank. Arrrr!

barfo

Nice.

 

[Masbee]

Theoretically the team has all the way until next year's draft to do a lopsided trade with their cap room, but with each passing day, week and month other teams are going to know that the expiration date on that flexibility is slowly but surely evaporating, the likelihood of a team suddenly deciding to do KP a solid by making a sweetheart of a trade goes down the longer the space is held. From the looks of things the "teams will be desperate to shed salary because of the economy/free agency 2010" meme that's been floating around appears to have been grossly overestimated by the media (at least so far).

My guess is that if KP goes into the regular season having done nothing but keep the current roster intact the trade offers will probably get increasingly poorer in quality as time goes by not more so. In fact I'm not so certain KP has it in him to pull off a high risk, high reward trade once the season is under way, at least there's been precious little evidence to suggest he's got that in him.

I don't see it this way.

I agree that this very young GM doesn't have a track record of making mid-season moves.

I don't think the ticking clock is getting louder with every passing day.

 

[Masbee]

Actually I'm looking at in the context of KP probably feeling increasing pressure to get something done as the clock nears midnight, so I'm definitely assuming there is a psychological component (for both KP and for other GMs). I think we tend to assume that a lot of these deals exist in a kind of cold, logical business-like approach when in fact many teams are run like a rich man's hobby where many owners and GMs could be just as likely to make emotional decisions as they are to base their actions on the bottom line.

As for a rival GM "doing him a solid" I was being somewhat facetious. But I do believe that if the trade deadline approaches and then passes and then if the last days of June dwindle away with nothing having been done, KP would be much more likely to take something just to get some value out of his asset rather than let it evaporate into thin air.

The best way I can express what I'm thinking is through an analogy. Think of it as a man on a deserted island with a chest of gold and a limited supply of water. A boat comes along and offers to rescue the man if he'll part with some of his gold. Initially the man easily declines because he feels that if he holds out long enough another boat is likely to come by and offer him a rescue without demanding any of his treasure. Time passes, the water is starting to run out and the original boat returns to offer to pick him up again only this time they double their price, the man on the deserted island knows options are running out, the water is low and he's beginning to feel a pang of desperation that he's unlikely to get a better offer.

Now of course KP isn't going to die if he doesn't do a trade and the analogy isn't perfect because it's possible that there will be teams desperate to shed salary at some point in the next year, but after the firesale that occured with Vince Carter, Richard Jefferson and Shaq It seems like desperate sellers would have taken care of their business before July 1st not after. I guess we'll see what happens.

I think the lowering of the salary cap and the warning of significant lowering of the cap next year will increase the number of teams wanting to make a deal.

IF (and this is an unknown) KP gets the green light (again, now that there are new numbers) to spend big from PA, then that only puts KP in a stronger position moving forward. Supply and demand.

I think the supply for Portland's cap space has just gone up (as of yesterday). So, give him some time to wait for that supply to increase. It won't all bubble up overnight. Owners groups have to have meetings. Executives have to spend hours and days screeming at each other venting their frustrations at a no-win situation. Owners have to issue final doomsday edicts.

Also, KP has something in his back pocket that keeps him strong - young talent.

He doesn't HAVE to make a deal. He WANTS to. He doesn't have to. If he doesn't like a deal, he can walk away. Why?

The Blazers have possibly the finest roster of young talent in the NBA. They will have a solid team for years to come even if that cap space expires and no big salaried player is added to the roster.