CAP GEEKERY: The Nurkić shutdown
The Trail Blazers’ recent shutdown of Jusuf Nurkić due to plantar fasciitis definitely raised some eyebrows around the league. The team announced he would miss “a minimum of four weeks” with six weeks left in the season, so you can see where this one is heading.
The Bosnian big man had been playing very well heading into the All-Star break (averaging 17.4 points, 12.6 boards and 3.4 assists since Jan. 1) and had Portland on the verge of qualifying for the Play-In Tournament, a fate it’s unclear the
Blazers actually wanted. While he’s lost some shot-blocking juice since a gruesome broken leg in 2019, his mobility seems mostly back to where it was, and his other production metrics are essentially back to pre-injury levels.
Since Nurkić is also an unrestricted free agent after the season and, at 27, still likely has some good seasons left in the tank, some have wondered what this portends for the Blazers’ offseason. Presumably, Nurkić would prefer to play and keep increasing his stock in free agency. Could shutting him down now imply that there is some de facto agreement between the Blazers and their big man for next season?
If so, it’s likely for more than $14.4 million per season. Nurkić could ink an extension for that amount right now, but he’s capped at that starting salary because it’s a 120 percent raise on his current $12 million. Given his age and production, his market value is likely considerably more than that, even in a relatively parched free agency landscape where only a few teams have cap space and nobody is anxious to spend it on centers.
Signaling that Nurkić is in their plans for next season if he wants to be is likely good business for Portland because it turns a difficult decision into a simple one. If Nurkić walks, the Blazers can operate as a “cap room” team; waiving
Eric Bledsoe and
Josh Hart and letting Nurkić walk would put the Blazers roughly $35 million below the cap, depending on where their own draft picks fall and if a pick owed from New Orleans (protected No. 1-4 and No. 15-30) conveys this year. The issue is the Blazers would have no players left, especially in the frontcourt.
Operating “over the cap” by re-signing Nurkić and keeping Hart is a much better way for the Blazers to operate, especially with a $20 million trade exception left over from the
CJ McCollum trade. But knowing Nurkić will be back is the key to making that work; otherwise the Blazers have to hunt for a starting center in free agency and would likely need cap room to do it.
The Blazers’ pathway to a quick rebuild around
Damian Lillard, Nurkić, Hart and
Anfernee Simons (a restricted free agent with an $11.8 million cap hold) still has speed bumps ahead. The Blazers have to find at least one more real wing player — a Sisyphean task for them in recent years — and the luxury tax looms as an issue if they use the trade exception.
Nonetheless, securing Nurkić’s return — and securing a top draft pick while he is shut down, which, not coincidentally, resulted in defeats by 37 and 32 points last week after Portland had won the previous four games in which Nurkić played — seems a far more promising pathway for the Blazers’ return to respectability.
https://theathletic.com/3154490/202...uf-nurkic-situation-hollingers-week-that-was/
I feel like there’s a deal agreed as well. He was way too happy after being shut down, usually he seems to get pretty down after injuries.
