Obama has makings for electoral blowout.

[Денг Гордон]

Safely Obama States: (5+ Lead)
California (+14)
Colorado (+6)
Connecticut (+12.5)
District of Columbia( +70.7)
Delaware (+13.4)
Hawaii (+22.5)
Iowa (+9.3)
Illinois (+18.4)
Massachusetts (+15.9)
Maryland (+15.7)
Maine (+12.8)
Minnesota (+12.5)
New Jersey (+9.9)
New York (+16)
Oregon (+11.4)
Pennsylvania (+6.7)
Rhode Island (+15.6)
Vermont (+25.8)
Washington (+15.8)
Wisconsin (+7.1)



Leaning Obama (3-5 point lead)
Ohio (Obama +2.9)

Tossups (Less than 3 lead by candidates)
Florida (McCain +2)
Indiana (McCain +0.7)
Michigan (Obama +1.6)
Missouri (Obama +0.3)
North Carolina (McCain +2.7)
New Hampshire (Obama +2.6)
New Mexico (Obama +2.5)
Nevada (McCain +0.4)
Virginia (Obama +1.8)




Leaning McCain
Montana (+4.2)
North Dakota (+3.2)

Safely McCain
Alaska (+5.3)
Alabama (+20.9)
Arkansas (+12.2)
Arizona (+12.1)
Georgia (+8.7)
Kansas (+9.7)
Kentucky (+21.3)
Louisiana (+9.3)
Idaho (+22.4)
Mississippi (+11.8)
Nebrasksa (+12.8)
Oklahoma (+18.1)
South Carolina (+7.9)
South Dakota (+5.4)
Tennessee (+13.6)
Texas (+11.2)
Utah (+29.4)
West Virginia (+7.2)
Wyoming (+18.1)

Now the first thing that needs to stand out is that 8 of the 10 toss up states were won by Republicans last time around. Then you see that one of the two Democratic won toss ups is only worth 4 electoral votes. Then you see Ohio...which I know for a fact after they incorporate the latest Ohio poll, will move into the leaning Obama category...so I'll go ahead and move that there.

So:

Safely: Obama 247 McCain 157

Obama is only 23 electoral votes shy when you look at just locks.

Adding leaners:

Leaners: Obama 267 McCain 163

That leaves 108 electoral votes in toss ups.

If you add each state in what they are leaning at the moment, you get:

Obama 317 McCain 221

That is a pretty good margin of victory. The landslide is determined as 375+ EV. To get this, Obama wold have to win all of the tossup states.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/

 

[Real]

Tim Russert before he died said the election would come down to four states. Colorado, Nevada, Arizona, and New Mexico.

There's a lot, A LOT to be decided between now and the conventions, but I think in the end Colorado is going to be a big state, and I think that it's going to go Obama this fall. He's got a lot going for him overall in this map.

 

[Denny Crane]

It looks 244 Obama to 201 McCain with a lot of states up for grabs.

McCain is up 7% in the most recent poll in Florida. Ooops, so much for the line of reasoning and facts in the first post.

 

[Denny Crane]

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Real @ Jun 17 2008, 01:52 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'>Tim Russert before he died said the election would come down to four states. Colorado, Nevada, Arizona, and New Mexico.

There's a lot, A LOT to be decided between now and the conventions, but I think in the end Colorado is going to be a big state, and I think that it's going to go Obama this fall. He's got a lot going for him overall in this map.</div>

Most recent polls:
Obama up 6 in Colorado
McCain up 2 in Nevada
McCain up 11 in Arizona
Obama up 4 in New Mexico

15 EVs for McCain, 14 for Obama

 

[Денг Гордон]

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Real @ Jun 17 2008, 03:52 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'>Tim Russert before he died said the election would come down to four states. Colorado, Nevada, Arizona, and New Mexico.

There's a lot, A LOT to be decided between now and the conventions, but I think in the end Colorado is going to be a big state, and I think that it's going to go Obama this fall. He's got a lot going for him overall in this map.</div>

If you follow the Rasmussen balance of power calculator, they have it at Obama 260 vs. McCain 240, with 4 tossups: Colorado, New Hampshire, Nevada, and Ohio.

Colorado is huge because it likely will be the state that guarantees Obama at least a 269 tie in a close election. Then anything from holding onto New Hamsphire, or winning the first congressional district in Nebraska would give Obama the election.

 

[huevonkiller]

Alright BG7, nice numbers.

Don't forget to make your pick in the Chick thread either.