Anyhow, my take on the debates has been pretty consistent. I've mentioned in the past that what people perceive of Romney is what's been filtered by the media and caricature painted by hundreds of $millions in attack ads. The convention and the debates are truly the only forum where Romney gets to address the people without those filters. The first debate may have exposed Obama for being the empty chair that Clint said he was (Obama didn't show, eh?). But it really contrasted Romney with all the negative crap about him that's been thrown against the wall to see what might stick. People saw for themselves that he's actually a human being.
The election proper should be a rerun of 1980. And that's what is happening with the polls. They're moving in Romney's direction in a hurry, as they did for Reagan. My judgment is that it's not a question of if Romney can find a path to 270 electoral votes at this point, it's a matter of if there's enough time left - like a basketball team furiously erasing a huge deficit as the clock in Q4 is running out.
My expectation for tonight's debate is a draw. Obama can't do worse than he did last time - I don't think it's feasible. I don't expect Romney to do any worse, either.
The script for tonight is fairly obvious to me.
Obama: "I inherited a bad situation."
Romney: "quit blaming everyone but yourself, you had 4 years and failed."
And that opens up the old Reagan "there you go again" line should Obama continue to blame Bush, republicans, congress, etc.
Obama: "blah blah blah 47%" (my note - MSNBC is claiming Obama will bring that up)
Romney: "they taught us in law school that when the facts aren't on your side, bang on the table; you are seeing the president bang on the table."
Rinse, repeat for any personal attack, including being called a liar.
The brutal truth is Obama is in a box that's tough to see a way out of.
The reason I say it's going to be a draw is that those who support the president will be pleased that he brought up the 47% and that a different Obama (confident? prepared!) shows up. Also, I don't see anything short of an outright failure on Romney's part and superstar type performance from Obama changing the direction of the polls.