Oden expectations thread

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KingSpeed

KingSpeed

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What do you expect Oden to average next season?

For me... I want 14/10/2. I probably expect around 10/9/1.

Thoughts? Be honest. I will absolutely hold it against you.
 
19 PER and good defense.

;)
 
I expect Oden to have his every move criticized throughout his career.
 
I'm not going to put numbers on it, because that always construes everything.

Let's just say....better than this year.
 
With him getting into condition and coming into the season with Mcmillan planning for him.

Reserved expectations

12/9 >1 block in 25-30 minutes
He'll get into foul trouble regularly but it will be every few nights instead of cripplingly consistent.

Hopeful expectations

15/12 2 blocks in 30+ minutes
Fouls will be an issue, but game altering foul trouble will be limited to once every few weeks.

Honestly I suspect Oden will come in somewhere in between. Even if he rides the bottom of my expectations this coming season he'll likely catch up in his third. I still wouldn't be surprised at all to see him as a top runner for MIP next season or the season after.

Hopefully he can find time for the big man camp over the summer but really this season is a lot about conditioning.
 
I don't really give a damn about per game stats. If he stays out of foul trouble and plays 32+ minutes a game while being effective at both ends of the court and stays reasonably healthy I'll call that improvement and "success"

But honestly, I wouldn't be shocked if he 'only' managed something like 11/8.5/1.5 in 27 minutes per game.
 
KingSpeed said:
What do you expect Oden to average next season?

For me... I want 14/10/2. I probably expect around 10/9/1.

Thoughts? Be honest. I will absolutely hold it against you.
Click to expand...

I have to ask what the fuck that even means?
 
Nikolokolus said:
I have to ask what the fuck that even means?
Click to expand...

It's just that back at BBF, people had all these predictions about what he was going to give us and then when he didn't do it, everyone acted like they never expected anything from him, that they thought he was giving us 8/7 all along! And now, as I can tell with some answers to this thread, people are afraid to have ANY expectation of him.
 
KingSpeed said:
What do you expect Oden to average next season?

For me... I want 14/10/2. I probably expect around 10/9/1.

Thoughts? Be honest. I will absolutely hold it against you.
Click to expand...

The unfortunate and overlooked part of all this is that if Oden does well, everyone is happy and everyone forgets you being so critical of him. If he doesn't, then you get to say shit like that^^^ and hold it against us. If you make threads like this with the intent of holding us accountable, why can't we also hold your words accountable for the threads you've made about Jarrett Jack being better than Devin Harris? Or Oden being a "serious project" (which by all accounts, is your typed acknowledgement towards being more patient)?

That being said, I expect 40 and 15. Book it.
 
Miksaid said:
The unfortunate and overlooked part of all this is that if Oden does well, everyone is happy and everyone forgets you being so critical of him. If he doesn't, then you get to say shit like that^^^ and hold it against us. If you make threads like this with the intent of holding us accountable, why can't we also hold your words accountable for the threads you've made about Jarrett Jack being better than Devin Harris? Or Oden being a "serious project" (which by all accounts, is your typed acknowledgement towards being more patient)?

That being said, I expect 40 and 15. Book it.
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Very good points. It'll be interesting to see the response. As far as 40 and 15, learn the game and then post man. He's going to be much more well-rounded than that. 30-20-10-10-5 and 0.8 turnovers/game.

Checkmate.
 
The Jarrett Jack thing was just me being funny. Can't believe how many people have taken it seriously and still go on and on about it. As for Oden being a "serious project," that is exactly what he is. And yes, we do have to be patient with him. That's what you do with projects.
 
I think 0.8 turnovers is selling him a little short. Anything over 0.2 and I'll be disappointed.

All I expect from Oden next year is improved conditioning and footwork. His statistics will be based on how Nate uses him on each side of the ball. If Nate implements a system that actually has us run a pick and roll (and a guard who can do it consistently) instead of a pick and pop I could see Greg getting six points a game from that alone. If our guards can work at better entry passes (note into his chest and not down at the bottom of his feet) he could probably get six or so points just backing his guy down and making a move or getting fouled. That's twelve points right there.

Mostly I'm really looking forward to see if his athleticism has come back to anywhere near pre-surgery level. We saw some of the quickness and hops returning during the Houston series which was when we had passed the 18 month mark, so here is to good things in September.
 
I would love for him to play 24 to 30 minutes a game. I think if he does 12/12/2 is not out of reach for this season.
 
The only thing stopping GO from low post dominance is foul trouble. When he solves that, the sky is the limit for him.
 
If he can get past the foul trouble, he should be good for about 16/11/2.5.

KS, can we hold your comments about Fry handling Yao against you?
 
13-10 with 2 blocks. If we hire Tonya Harding and her husband to take out refs who call touch fouls on Greg, then I say 20-15 w/5 blocks.
 
58+ wins and at least one series win in the playoffs.
 
KingSpeed said:
The Jarrett Jack thing was just me being funny. Can't believe how many people have taken it seriously and still go on and on about it. As for Oden being a "serious project," that is exactly what he is. And yes, we do have to be patient with him. That's what you do with projects.
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Dude, I think there was some seriousness to your Jarrett Jack/Devin Harris debate at first, but then you made it seem like all a joke in the end. You were one of the biggest Jack supporters out there.

My expectation is that Greg makes no doubt that he's the starter over Joel next season, he comes into camp in great shape, and he develops one or two go-to moves that he's comfortable with.

13.5 points, 9.5 rebounds, 1.5 assists in 30 mins per game.
 
I could Def see 13-15 ppg and 10-11 Rpg with 2 Blks.. but like already mentioned. Alot depends on his ability to stay out of foul trouble.
 
KingSpeed said:
It's just that back at BBF, people had all these predictions about what he was going to give us and then when he didn't do it, everyone acted like they never expected anything from him, that they thought he was giving us 8/7 all along! And now, as I can tell with some answers to this thread, people are afraid to have ANY expectation of him.
Click to expand...

I don't think you understand the difference between expectations and hope. Of course I hope Greg has a monster season, but I don't expect the foul trouble issue is going to be fixed over night, and I don't expect he's going to magically develop a low post game, nor do I expect him to be getting many more looks with our current guard rotation. Therefore all I expect is a modest improvement in foul rate, a modest improvement in minutes played, and a modest improvement in his post-up game.

I think the biggest difference between you and I Eric, is that you tend to look at per game stats as if that's the only meanginful way to measure player improvement or decline; LaMarcus pretty much had identical per game stats this season (and they even dropped some in the rebounds area), but just based on the eye test you could tell his post game improved and his defense improved and that he had a better season. I have little doubt that Greg will have at least modest improvement in his stats, (maybe even averaging a double-double if he can really cut the fouls) but that's really not what I'm going to be looking for. I want to see him improve his footwork on offense, develop at least one go to move in the post, and I want to see what he looks like fully recovered from the MF surgery, which I'm guessing should help his lateral quickness on defense and hopefully help him cut down on the stupid bump and touch fouls.

Now if we get a starting point guard that can collapse a defense and find a cutting big like LaMarcus and Greg a couple of times a game or that can run an actual pick and roll, then I think Greg's prospects for the next season get considerably improved from a statistical standpoint, but even that won't mean that he's taken some quantum leap in development.
 
Expectations and predictions are different.

My expectations are probably 13 and 9 and 1.5 for gregory.
 
Nikolokolus said:
Now if we get a starting point guard that can collapse a defense and find a cutting big like LaMarcus and Greg a couple of times a game or that can run an actual pick and roll, then I think Greg's prospects for the next season get considerably improved from a statistical standpoint, but even that won't mean that he's taken some quantum leap in development.
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I definitely agree with this. His actual numbers (points) will depend on the PGs ability to get him easy baskets.

His rebounds? The Blazers lead the league in Rebounding % - My goal for Greg is to have that continue.

Blocks? I'll be disappointed with less than 1.5 - I'll say he should be 2 blocks/game.

Minutes - Here's the real issue. I'm optimistic that Greg can give us 28-30 per game, though it's possible he'll play more than that. Obviously, I think he can overcome his foul problems (if Nate allows him to).
 
This is what I expect from Oden next season:

I expect he will be quicker, more explosive, have better conditioning, and have rudimentary skill on a couple of post moves.

Because of that, I expect he will not be in as much foul trouble (though it will still take him out of some halfs), and will average 30 minutes per game.

Numbers:

Points: 13
Rebounds: 10
Blocks: 2
FG%: 58%
Assists: 1
Steals: 1
Tovs: 2

If we add a top notch point guard (ie, Andre Miller) who can and will set Oden up for extra easy buckets, I would bump up the FG% to 60%, and the PPG to 15.
 
would you rather have oden average 18 points 10 rebounds, or like 10 points and 16 rebounds or something, saying that blocks and stuff are even?
 
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