Oden, have you given up on him? What would make you believe?

[Idog1976]

>>>IF<<<Oden is healthy, he will contribute at a high level. I don't think anybody actually denies that - unless you count people like me who think he will never be a scoring machine.

Seriously, you are showing your youth here. Bowie was a very productive player - when he was healthy. Same with Steve Johnson. In fact, you could honestly say that in some respects they were both better players than Oden! The obvious catch, is that they were injured so much, it undermined team success. I'm betting that is ALL that anybody cares about.

As for what would make me give up hope - that ship has already sailed. Last season was make-or-break for me. He broke.

I would argue you are showing your age as well. Your advanced age. If you take Oden's WORST year he is better then Bowie's BEST year.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/b/bowiesa01.html

Bowie's best year he had a PER of 16.4 and his best ever defensive rating was 103 out of years Oden's worst defensive rating was 104 so Bowie edged him there. However, Oden's best year Defensive rating was 100 considerably better.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/o/odengr01.html

Oden's worst year PER was 18.1 a full 1.7 points better his miserable 2008/09 season where he was lambasted. His best year he had a 23.1 PER!!!

Oden absolutely destroys Bowie in every reasonable statistic except scoring and of course (sadly) games played.

Unless you are talking health (puke) Oden is on a whole different level. Terrible, awful perception not based in reality AT ALL.

 

[Idog1976]

Not to derail the thread, but a serious question - were you old enough to actually watch those guys play? You'll note that I said *in some respects* they were better than Oden.

That defensive rating for Bowie must not be pace adjusted, because anyone who actually saw him play would tell you he was as good or better than Oden on defense. He was also an *outstanding* passer for a big man. In terms of passing/playmaking/ball movement, he was on par with Sabonis - and certainly better than Oden.

As for Steve Johnson, he was described as having the second best (to McHale) low post moves in the league. Constantly trying to play through injuries distorted his PER. If he had been the type of guy who only played when he was close to 100%, his PER would have been in the 20 range.

There were also areas of their games where they were not as good (potentially) as Oden. Physically, Steve Johnson was an injury riddled Al Jefferson. A healthy Oden would no doubt be a better rebounder and defender. Bowie was a decent, not great rebounder, and wasn't all that special as a scorer.

Of course, none of this is really relevant to the subject. My apologies to the TS.

You're watching a different sport if you think Bowie was better at defense then Oden when healthy. I'm sorry that's nuts. I remember quite well the horror of Bowie's injuries and while I doubt my recollection was as clear as yours (although maybe its wrong give the VAST gulf in measurable stats), you simply can't compare Oden and Bowie other then health and draft positions, Portland etc. As players they were wildly different. Oden is better in all aspects but scoring and is even better there by FAR efficiency wise.\

You are right that Bowie was a better passer. I will definitely give you that. If both are healthy and say 22 I take Oden and I don't have to think twice. It's that simple. Bowie is enormously underrated but stats don't lie.

 

[blazerboy30]

I think his ceiling is significantly different today.

What made him such a great prospect, other than his size, was his athletic ability.

He had a no-step vertical of 32-inches coming into his rookie year, I'm willing to bet that when he comes back from this latest injury it's probably around the early-to-mid 20's. He's not the same prospect, not even close.

This is silly. You have absolutely NOTHING to base the random number generator of "early-to-mid 20s", and then use that as evidence of how he's "not even close to the same prospect".

 

[oldmangrouch]

You're watching a different sport if you think Bowie was better at defense then Oden when healthy. I'm sorry that's nuts. I remember quite well the horror of Bowie's injuries and while I doubt my recollection was as clear as yours (although maybe its wrong give the VAST gulf in measurable stats), you simply can't compare Oden and Bowie other then health and draft positions, Portland etc. As players they were wildly different. Oden is better in all aspects but scoring and is even better there by FAR efficiency wise.\

You are right that Bowie was a better passer. I will definitely give you that. If both are healthy and say 22 I take Oden and I don't have to think twice. It's that simple. Bowie is enormously underrated but stats don't lie.

OK, well here is another stat to ponder. Bowie had a much lower foul rate than Oden, while having a better rate of blocked shots.

Blocked shots alone don't define defense, but the ability to play good help defense without getting into foul trouble is *part* of the picture - and Bowie was very good at that. Even when healthy, Oden has a frustrating tendency to take himself out of games with foul trouble.

At one time, Oden was leagues ahead of Bowie in physical tools. Bowie was more like a post-achilles-injury Sabonis.....it was his unusual court smarts that set him apart. Take injuries out of the equation, and they were completely different *types* of players.

 

[Idog1976]

OK, well here is another stat to ponder. Bowie had a much lower foul rate than Oden, while having a better rate of blocked shots.

Blocked shots alone don't define defense, but the ability to play good help defense without getting into foul trouble is *part* of the picture - and Bowie was very good at that. Even when healthy, Oden has a frustrating tendency to take himself out of games with foul trouble.

At one time, Oden was leagues ahead of Bowie in physical tools. Bowie was more like a post-achilles-injury Sabonis.....it was his unusual court smarts that set him apart. Take injuries out of the equation, and they were completely different *types* of players.

Now everything you wrote here I agree with. Bowie was a very heady player with exceptionally high BBIQ.

Foul trouble I think is a problem that will lessen with time, fame and recognition for Oden. It is an issue to be sure and a weapon for the refs. For every hamfisted stupid hip-check foul there were some really ridiculous calls, especially in his rookie campaign.

 

[TripTango]

I said rotation player, only because I believe that the way to keep him healthy is going to be to limit his minutes. As long as those minutes are high-quality ones, I've got no problem with that, especially with Marcus on the roster.

 

[Idog1976]

I said rotation player, only because I believe that the way to keep him healthy is going to be to limit his minutes. As long as those minutes are high-quality ones, I've got no problem with that, especially with Marcus on the roster.

Um, he had rotation player minutes last year...and a 23.1 PER. PER doesn't care how many minutes you play. Just saying.

Voting rotation player means you think he will average about a 15 PER. That's what I meant anyways.

 

[STOMP]

I absolutely agree with this. Weight might be the key for Oden. From the looks of it he has a lot of work to do. I think his upper body is a bit too big. Also, I think he needs to have his diet really monitored. He eats garbage all the time and I think that effects his fatigue and overall health.

link? I've read just the opposite

btw to the OP... a 20+ PER is AS level production

STOMP

 

[STOMP]

This is silly. You have absolutely NOTHING to base the random number generator of "early-to-mid 20s", and then use that as evidence of how he's "not even close to the same prospect".

exactly... the poster mistakenly said "I think" when they should have said "I pulled out of my backside a guess based on nothing but my chicken little nature"

STOMP

 

[Ed O]

This is silly. You have absolutely NOTHING to base the random number generator of "early-to-mid 20s", and then use that as evidence of how he's "not even close to the same prospect".

Maybe you've never heard of a little thing called 2d20?

Ed O.

 

[Minstrel]

Maybe you've never heard of a little thing called 2d20?

I have. It killed my elf mage.

 

[mgb]

LMAO repped!

You rep him while I made the oringal joke! But do I get repped? Nooooooo.

 

[oldmangrouch]

exactly... the poster mistakenly said "I think" when they should have said "I pulled out of my backside a guess based on nothing but my chicken little nature"

STOMP

So substantial weight gain + injuries to both knee = no change in leaping ability?

Dude, seriously?

 

[Fez Hammersticks]

So substantial weight gain + injuries to both knee = no change in leaping ability?

Dude, seriously?

This.

Goodbye David Robinson athleticism, hello Desegana Diop athleticism.

--> IMO <--

 

[Minstrel]

So substantial weight gain + injuries to both knee = no change in leaping ability?

How much change to leaping ability? The poster in question put a specific number on it. Are you supporting that number?

The injuries supposedly shouldn't change the effectiveness of his knees. Not all injuries change/weaken the body permanently.

The weight gain may affect his leaping ability, but it remains to be seen how much of that weight he keeps on once he's able to work out normally for several months.

 

[Minstrel]

This.

Goodbye David Robinson athleticism, hello Desegana Diop athleticism.

--> IMO <--

What happened to him being Jamaal Magloire? No longer optimistic about Oden?

 

[Nikolokolus]

What would make you give up hope?

I'm including a poll because I'm a bit shocked at all the negativity towards him. When he was healthy and in good shape (read first 1/3 of 2009/10 season) he contributed at a very high level.

People think Roy is great and with good reason. However, its like people aren't concerned about his health or feel that his past performance trumps any health issues he may have now or recently.

I'm completely worried about Roy's durability, in fact his knees are one of the major reasons I think this team's chances of winning a championship are a lot dimmer than they were last summer

This seems like a double standard to me. You need to base your faith in someone on whether or not they perform when given the chance and they are healthy. Nobody bags on Roy's playoff performance because people understand he was really injured. How is this any different then Oden's 2008/09 performance where he was hobbled by injuries and never really got in shape?

I understand the extreme HORROR everyone feels about Oden's injuries, that really goes without saying, what blows me away is people who think he won't contribute if healthy.

So where do you stand?

I think Oden will be productive when healthy ... it's the "when healthy" part that I no longer have much faith in (and yes I do believe we have seen a pattern of brittleness with him, despite the fact that his injuries appear to be unrelated).

 

[Shooter]

I have no doubt that Oden can contribute if he's healthy. I even think he could be an All-Star. However, I have almost zero confidence in his ability to stay injury-free. I personally think he's an accident waiting to happen every time he steps on the court.

I hope he proves me wrong this year.

 

[STOMP]

So substantial weight gain + injuries to both knee = no change in leaping ability?

Dude, seriously?

reportedly he was about 265 last year. Thats all of 8 pounds more then he weighed in at the pre-draft which is the baseline being referenced... is that really substantial in your world? His knee injuries shouldn't have any affect on his jumping/athletic ability according to actual medical experts. Thats the reason they do the longer to recover from microfracture surgery and of course a broken bone (kneecap) heals completely... besides it sure looked like he was jumping fine last year when he was leading the league in blocked shots

I know you pride yourself on taking a glass half empty viewpoint, but this is one of those times where your broken record is just wrong

STOMP

 

[maxiep]

reportedly he was about 265 last year which is all of 8 pounds more then he weighed in at the pre-draft which is the baseline being referenced... that is substantial in your world? his knee injuries shouldn't have any affect on his jumping/athletic ability according to actual medical experts. Thats the reason they do the longer to recover from microfracture surgery and of course a broken bone (kneecap) heals completely... besides it sure looked like he was jumping fine last year when he was leading the league in blocked shots

I know you pride yourself on taking a glass half empty viewpoint, but this is one of those times where your broken record is just wrong

STOMP

I'm not trying to nitpick, but looking at him last year, I think he was at least 270 and perhaps closer to 280. I really do think playing under 260 would make him both healthier and more impactful. I really hope we're working with him to look more like David Robinson and less like Shaq.

 

[Idog1976]

I'm not trying to nitpick, but looking at him last year, I think he was at least 270 and perhaps closer to 280. I really do think playing under 260 would make him both healthier and more impactful. I really hope we're working with him to look more like David Robinson and less like Shaq.

I think everyone but Oden himself thinks 260ish is a good weight for him. His kneecap as I know you know, broke from being so beastie his quad ripped it in half. So weight wasn't an issue with this injury or the Maggette one. In fact none of them were as he was 250ish when the micro injury happened.

That said lower weight should = greater speed and athleticism.

 

[maxiep]

I think everyone but Oden himself thinks 260ish is a good weight for him. His kneecap as I know you know, broke from being so beastie his quad ripped it in half. So weight wasn't an issue with this injury or the Maggette one. In fact none of them were as he was 250ish when the micro injury happened.

That said lower weight should = greater speed and athleticism.

Well said. He's simply more effective when he's quicker. He'll foul less and will still have enough strength to battle down low.

For the record, the Blazers' training staff deserves some serious blame for his massive muscle gain while injured. They should have been keeping him lean instead of letting him go Gary Trent.

 

[STOMP]

I'm not trying to nitpick, but looking at him last year, I think he was at least 270 and perhaps closer to 280. I really do think playing under 260 would make him both healthier and more impactful. I really hope we're working with him to look more like David Robinson and less like Shaq.

Well your eyeball measurements vs whats reported isn't really worth debating, plus there is a strong possibility that the 265 reported weight I'm recalling was from one of the Blazer's sunshine crew. Regardless, I've always been in the camp that would rather him focus his training on being lighter/quicker then heavier/stronger both for performance and longevity reasons, so we're hardly at odds. Of course it's possible for a player to be trim/fit at X weight and also fat/out of shape at the same weight... there is good weight and bad. I've been happy to read/hear multiple reports of Greg being focused on his diet. Here's one. I never bought the excuses provided by the Shaq camp of how he bulked up because he takes such a pounding from opponents. If you're already the biggest guy on the court, how much bigger do you need to be? I saw O'neal with his shirt off in the PHX locker room a couple years back and dude is just a fat ass. I did not think Greg was like that last year at all. He seemed to be in great shape contesting shots and moving much better then his rookie year.

sidenote... just for noting how fickle a weight measurement is for guys this big, I can recall Wayne Cooper claiming he'd lose about 8 pounds every game.

STOMP

 

[TripTango]

Voting rotation player means you think he will average about a 15 PER. That's what I meant anyways.

Well, then you should have specified that in the poll options.
I was just talking overall production.

 

[Minstrel]

sidenote... just for noting how fickle a weight measurement is for guys this big, I can recall Wayne Cooper claiming he'd lose about 8 pounds every game.

I've read that NFL linebackers/running backs can lose 40-50 lbs in a week during the season, from all the work they do, if they don't eat voraciously. The amount of weight burn that hard-working athletes at that level can achieve is insane.