Official 2013 Draft thread (1 Viewer)

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How is Denver imploding to the point of dropping like a rock in our division? Are you attributing that to the firing of George Karl and/or additional circumstances?

George Karl, a lot of their front offices guys leaving, and as stated Iggy leaving. Not to mention some of the coaches they've been talking to seem underwhelming.
 
David Aldridge ‏@daldridgetnt 6m
You can put @LuolDeng9 to the Wiz for @BigMek50 and the 3rd pick on ice. No chance

I have really liked that possibility of getting a center for now (Okafor) and one for the future (Len), or Olipado, if you believe he could play soon.
 
George Karl, a lot of their front offices guys leaving, and as stated Iggy leaving. Not to mention some of the coaches they've been talking to seem underwhelming.

George Karl was underwhelming. Potentially losing Iggy will hurt more I think. Don't expect them to win that many games, but I think they'll still get #2 in the division next year.
 
Interesting analysis from a scout:

Thanks! (Actually, it's several scouts.) Here's some other quotes:
The good:
Gorgui Dieng, 6-11 center, Louisville: "He's smart. You can play through him. He can make a 15-foot jump shot.

Allen Crabbe, 6-6 guard, California: "He can really shoot. Smarter player than he's probably gotten credit for.

Jamaal Franklin, 6-5 guard, San Diego State: "He's got freak athleticism and he can pass better than people know. He works so hard I think he can become a better shooter. Remember, Kawhi Leonard didn't hit threes in college, either."

Shane Larkin, 6-foot point guard, Miami: "Stud athlete, stud kid. His size is never going to change, so the question is whether your coach can live with that. He had a 44-inch vertical at the combine. He's gonna be pretty damn good, man. If you have talented pieces around him, he's going to be really good because he likes to get others involved. He's an off-the-charts kid. He is truly about the team."

Ray McCallum, 6-2 point guard, Detroit: "He's an NBA player. He was one of the top point guards in the country coming out of high school, and I don't think he has gotten worse. He's a great athlete for his position, which is an attack point guard. We're getting more of those kinds of point guards in our league. He has to become a better outside shooter and finish better around the basket, but he's a gym rat, a coach's son, and he understands how to play the game. He's athletic, but he doesn't use it enough. I would love to see him go through traffic and dunk on somebody."

Kelly Olynyk, 7-foot forward, Gonzaga: "He's a big bastard, man. He shoots it. ... He was a great interview. Really good dude. I enjoyed talking to him as much as anybody we've met with."

Nate Wolters, 6-5 point guard, South Dakota State: "An extremely smart basketball player. He has improved his shot and has a good runner. My main concern is whether he can guard a quick guard. He has a chance to make it in the NBA depending on which team he is with. If you look at his stats this year before he hurt his ankle, he shot like 48 percent from three. I'm not saying he'll be great, but he's definitely an NBA player. His first step is quicker than people realize."

Cody Zeller, 7-foot forward, Indiana: "The best running big man in the draft. He's a better face-up player than we were shown in college. He has to get stronger on his post-ups, but he handles the ball well for a guy his size. If he develops a jump shot, that will give him more space to drive. I think he has great upside. When you talk to him, you see he's an elite human being. He really gets it, and physically he's an elite athlete."
...and the NASTY:

Lorenzo Brown, 6-5 point guard, N.C. State: "I like Pierre Jackson more."

Reggie Bullock, 6-7 guard, North Carolina: "We interviewed him, and he was not very good."

Allen Crabbe, 6-6 guard, California: "Strength and mental toughness is a little bit of a concern. He has been disappointing in workouts. He looks great as long as he doesn't have to compete."

DeWayne Dedmon, 7-foot center, USC: "He's another one who should have stayed in school ... Maybe he gets drafted, but I don't see him being a roster guy."

Jamaal Franklin, 6-5 guard, San Diego State: "Right now, he's not a good enough shooter to be an NBA two-guard. It's tough to get on the court at that position if you're not a great shooter or a great defender. "

Erick Green, 6-3 guard, Virginia Tech:
"He's a scorer, but he's not a great athlete, he doesn't play defense, and he doesn't have an aggressive personality. He's going to have to get stronger. He's OK for me. He's an undersized two guard, and he's not a special athlete. I don't know if he's a first rounder."

Pierre Jackson, 5-11 point guard, Baylor:
"The main concern obviously is his size. He is really little. "

Myck Kabongo, 6-3 point guard, Texas: "I'm not feeling him. Never have. He probably should have gone back to Texas, although I don't know if they wanted him back. "

Ryan Kelly, 6-11 forward, Duke: "He does nothing for me. He's broken physically. "

Alex Len, 7-1 center, Maryland: "You see someone his size who is talented offensively, but you look up and he averages 11 and 9 and you're like, what the hell is going on? When he wanted to do well, like against Nerlens Noel or Mason Plumlee, he did it, but why wasn't that there every night? He's young and he's still becoming Americanized. The coaches at Maryland swear he's a special shooter, but special shooters don't shoot 68 percent from the foul line."

C.J. Leslie, 6-9 forward, N.C. State: "I'm not a fan. I know he's a great athlete, but he's undersized, turnover prone, and he doesn't shoot. He'll dazzle you every now and then but he's not real consistent. He got nothing done there in three years."

Tony Mitchell, 6-9 forward, North Texas: "...he falls in line with the Royce Whites of the world where they think they have everything under control. I mean, if you're the only NBA player in the Sun Belt, how is your team one of the worst in the league? Overall intelligence is a question, too. That's something we're digging into. You don't have to be a rocket scientist, but you have to have some innate intelligence. He just didn't have a good year."

Shabazz Muhammad, 6-6 forward, UCLA: "He had 27 assists for the whole year. When I saw that, I thought it was a misprint. What I want to know is, for a guy who is known to work out hard and train, and he has supposedly been trained by some of the best trainers on the west coast, why the hell doesn't he have a right hand? I think he's gonna slide, I really do."

Erik Murphy, 6-10 forward, Florida: "I don't think he's an NBA player, but he'll be able to play overseas."

Mike Muscala, 6-11 forward, Bucknell: "...he's really soft. He wants nothing to do with any physicality down low, and I don't think he has enough stuff off the bounce to be Byron Mullens. ..at the end of the day I just don't think he's good enough."

Nerlens Noel, 7-foot center, Kentucky: "I don't ever see him being a 16-plus-a-night scorer....His camp seems to be focused on getting him hooked up with Hollywood. He's going to be a solid pro, but he's not going to be your standard No. 1 pick. He's got a little waist and rounded shoulders."

Victor Oladipo, 6-4 guard, Indiana: "The fact that he's a top five pick is an indictment of this draft."

Kelly Olynyk, 7-foot forward, Gonzaga: "You have to hope you can get an average defender out of him. I'm not sure he wants any kind of contact, and I'm not sure about his mental toughness. He had good numbers this year, but when you look deeper, you ask what bigs did he play against? "

Mason Plumlee, 7-foot center, Duke: "He's 23-and-a-half and he still doesn't have any skill....He has tiny hips. He's not going to get all that much bigger physically."

Phil Pressey, 6-foot point guard, Missouri: "I think Jacob Pullen is a better shooter, scorer and leader, and Pullen is not in the league."

Glen Rice Jr., 6-6 forward, Michigan/NBDL: " I worry that he thinks he's better than he is and he disrupts the game for other people. "

Peyton Siva, 6-1 point guard, Louisville: "Some guys are just very good college players."

Tony Snell, 6-7 forward, New Mexico: "His motor needs to be a lot higher. I think he plays at his own pace. Some of our guys like him more than I do."

James Southerland, 6-8 forward, Syracuse: "He's not as good a shooter as I thought he would be. [He] really moves kind of stiff."

Adonis Thomas, 6-6 forward, Memphis: "He's a four, we're debating whether he can be a three, yet he calls himself a two."

Khalif Wyatt, 6-4 guard, Temple: "I don't know if he can guard anybody. I'm not sure he's a draftable player. I would pass."

B.J. Young, 6-4 point guard, Arkansas: "I wouldn't touch him with a 10-foot pole. He just goes on his natural talent. I don't think he really knows how to play. I've heard he doesn't work real hard during the summer. He can't shoot and he's wild."
 
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Ben Golliver ‏@blazersedge 4m
Pelton: WARP Projections Love Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Cody Zeller, C.J. McCollum In 2013 NBA Draft http://sbn.to/10gI3hF

Kevin Pelton of ESPN.com (Insider) breaks down the 2013 NBA Draft class using a Wins Above Replacement Player (WARP) projection.

I start by translating a player's college statistics to their NBA equivalents. That produces a per-minute rating, player win% (equivalent to PER), that projects how we can expect rookies to perform in the NBA next season. By adding age, I come up with a projection of how many Wins Above Replacement Player (WARP), on average, prospects will produce over their first five years -- the amount of time teams control a first-round pick between the four-year rookie contract and one year as a restricted free agent.

Three players who worked out for the Portland Trail Blazers at the Tualatin practice facility this year fared very well, ranking in the top five of Pelton's WARP rankings...

3. KENTAVIOUS CALDWELL-POPE, SG, GEORGIA

Caldwell-Pope rates atop a deep group of shooting guards thanks in large part to his versatility. With good size for the position, Caldwell-Pope contributes on the glass and has an excellent steal rate. As a pro, Caldwell-Pope may be more efficient than he was as the first option on offense at Georgia.

4. CODY ZELLER, PF, INDIANA

After a terrific freshman year, Zeller took a step backward lat season, so he benefits from research showing that performance early in college is more important. Zeller's rebounding is a bit worrisome, but he figures to be an efficient scorer right away.

5. C.J. MCCOLLUM, PG, LEHIGH

Because McCollum was the Lehigh offense, he has the highest translated usage rate of any player in the top 30. McCollum was still reasonably efficient thanks in large part to his accuracy at the line. And he's an excellent rebounder for a guard who also racked up steals against lesser competition.

Players who worked out or were interviewed by the Blazers that didn't fare as well: Kelly Olynyk (No. 16), Alex Len (No. 23), Mason Plumlee (No. 26) and Shabazz Muhammad (No. 27).

Im really starting to warm to the idea of Pope. But Im guessing that he is now moving up higher than our pick.
 
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Casey Holdahl ‏@CHold 2m
The Blazers had 7 of the 10 players on @kpelton's second-round WARP steals list in for predraft workouts
 
Somebody give that list!!!

SECOND-ROUND STEALS

1. ANDRE ROBERSON, SF, COLORADO
Roberson's Projections | Age: 21
WIN %
WARP
FORD'S RANK
.497
2.6
39
Roberson's draft profile | Top 100 prospects

Roberson fits a second-round stereotype -- an undersized power forward with big-time athleticism. He struggled last season trying to play more on the perimeter, but has excelled defensively and on the glass against bigger players. Consider Roberson a poor man's Kenneth Faried.


2. D.J. COOPER, PG, OHIO
Cooper's Projections | Age: 22
WIN %
WARP
FORD'S RANK
.504
2.3
59
Cooper's draft profile | Top 100 prospects

Cooper, who led Ohio to the Sweet 16 in 2012, has the best translated assist rate in the draft and also racked up steals in the MAC. Scouts are probably rightfully concerned about Cooper's inability to finish -- his translated 2-point percentage is below 40 percent.


3. NATE WOLTERS, PG, SOUTH DAKOTA STATE
Wolters' Projections | Age: 22
WIN %
WARP
FORD'S RANK
.492
2.2
36
Wolters' draft profile | Top 100 prospects

A crafty ball handler with good size for the point, Wolters rarely turns the ball over and excelled at setting up shooters in a spread offense. Along with Bennett, Wolters is the other prospect without any statistical weaknesses for his position. His translations suggest he could be an effective backup next season.


4. PIERRE JACKSON, PG, BAYLOR
Jackson's Projections | Age: 21
WIN %
WARP
FORD'S RANK
.482
2.1
35
Jackson's draft profile | Top 100 prospects

Jackson was the primary creator at Baylor last season, posting an above-average translated usage rate as well as an elite steal rate. He's also a dangerous outside shooter who could serve as instant offense from the bench a la the smaller Earl Boykins.


5. ARSALAN KAZEMI, PF, OREGON
Kazemi's Projections | Age: 23
WIN %
WARP
FORD'S RANK
.510
2.1
56
Kazemi's draft profile | Top 100 prospects

After excelling at Rice, Kazemi demonstrated last season he could do the same thing against better competition at Oregon. He's an outstanding rebounder who uses his quickness to come up with steals against bigger opponents.


6. RYAN BROEKHOFF, SF, VALPARAISO
Broekoff's Projections | Age: 22
WIN %
WARP
FORD'S RANK
.497
2.0
74
Broekhoff's draft profile | Top 100 prospects

A deep sleeper who only recently appeared on Ford's top 100, Broekhoff was a versatile contributor for the Horizon League champs. He has 3-point range and is a good passer for a wing, but scouts will question his level of competition.


7. KHALIF WYATT, SG, TEMPLE
Wyatt's Projections | Age: 22
WIN %
WARP
FORD'S RANK
.474
1.6
78
Wyatt's draft profile | Top 100 prospects

Wyatt's awkward game hasn't won many fans among NBA scouts, but his translations suggest he'll be a capable scorer with the ability to create offense for his teammates as a shooting guard.


8. MIKE MUSCALA, C, BUCKNELL
Muscala's Projections | Age: 21
WIN %
WARP
FORD'S RANK
.460
1.5
33
Muscala's draft profile | Top 100 prospects

Muscala's combination of size and shooting touch could make him an effective pick-and-pop big man.


9. MARKO TODOROVIC, PF, SERBIA
Todorovic's Projections | Age: 21
WIN %
WARP
FORD'S RANK
.442
1.5
63
Todorovic's draft profile | Top 100 prospects

Todorovic more than held his own in the Euroleague last season and should be a high-percentage shooter with the ability to step out beyond the 3-point line at times.


10. GRANT JERRETT, PF, ARIZONA
Jerrett's Projections | Age: 19
WIN %
WARP
FORD'S RANK
.415
1.5
38
Jerrett's draft profile | Top 100 prospects

Though Jerrett unexpectedly entered the draft after a disappointing freshman season, his translations show promise. In particular, they assume he has to be a more accurate 2-point shooter than his performance at Arizona (41.3 percent on 75 attempts) indicated. If so, Jerrett could prove a stretch four (he shot 40.5 percent on 3s) with uncommon athleticism for the position.
 
Thanks RR7! Yes please to Roberson and/or Kazemi. (Muscala and Wolters will be gone before we pick in the second round.) Cooper is interesting. I wonder if he'll go undrafted.
 
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Wolters sounds perfect if we don't want to monkey around with trying to sign Maynor after major moves are completed.
 
George Karl, a lot of their front offices guys leaving, and as stated Iggy leaving. Not to mention some of the coaches they've been talking to seem underwhelming.

Yes, they are making a lot of changes. However, I wouldn't say they're going to drop a whole lot in our division until I see their roster after the draft and FA.
 
Huge long podcast featuring Kevin Pelton and Chad Ford.

Pelton: had Rondo as a top 10 pick back then. But also rated Mike Sweetney.

Says Noel is underrated, Len is overrated, in part because steal rate is suprisingly important, and Noel's is great, Len's is awful. Len's comp is... Meyers Leonard!

Shabazz Muhammad is "the single worst prospect rated as a first rounder" and has "by far the worst defensive rating of any player in the draft". Mclemore, Hardaway Jr., Burke have poor defensive ratings.

McCollum rates as one of the top prospects. Pelton likes Nogueira better than Olynyk or Gobert.

Olynyk rates worse than Ryan Anderson. "At 23 he's a good value."

"Shane Larkin is a solid value" at 21. The name "Chris Paul" is bandied about!

Doesn't know what to do with Schroeder because "there are no meaningful numbers". Same with Gobert. But I seem to remember him trashing Batum ahead of time.

Likes DJ Cooper - within reason - "a souped-up version of Ish Smith".

Doesn't like Oladipo (as a high pick)- compares him with Tony Allen or Iguodala tops.

17 of the top 33 players according to Pelton's scheme are "projected second round picks" (presumably by other people).

Loves Andre Roberson (me too!).

Likes Cody Zeller a LOT - a bargain "outside the top 10".
"Biggest Steal" - Roberson.

Top 5 guys:
Noel, Porter, Caldwell-Pope, Zeller, McCollum.

Chad Ford:
Trey Burke or MCW could disrupt the top 6 (Phoenix likes MCW a lot, probably more than McLemore).
The pick that the draft is hinging on is... the Cavs'. Because they haven't decided yet.
If Cavs take Len, Ford thinks he knows that Magic take Noel.
Surest pick: Porter at 3, except Washington's looking at trading the pick.
(Ford keeps calling Kidd-Gilchrist Carter-Williams - telling a story about how even his agent didn't know the Bobcats would take him.)
Ford thinks 14 and 21 gets you to 10 (doesn't mention the name Portland, but definitely mentions the number 10), maybe even 7, because Sacto likes Hardaway and Snell.
Ford: "There's one player in this draft I love and that's Victor Oladipo.... At the very least he's a better version of Tony Allen."

He thinks Muhammad could fall past Boston at 16!
 
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I've been getting comfortable with taking Zeller if he's still available at 10. It's a safe pick that probably works well in the short-term and long-term with a 3-big lineup along with LMA and Leonard. Zeller might be the only guy in the draft without a major "but..." dangling after his name with every mention! His only negative is he's not considered as good as a year ago, but that's not our problem with where we're picking.
 
I've been getting comfortable with taking Zeller if he's still available at 10. It's a safe pick that probably works well in the short-term and long-term with a 3-big lineup along with LMA and Leonard. Zeller might be the only guy in the draft without a major "but..." dangling after his name with every mention! His only negative is he's not considered as good as a year ago, but that's not our problem with where we're picking.

I thought his negatives were below average rebounding and defense? (That and his short arms)
 
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Doesn't like Oladipo (as a high pick)- compares him with Tony Allen or Iguodala tops.
Umm...what's wrong with that? With Lillard's weak defense, I'd take a Allen or Iggy to play next to him.
 
If that is true, then wouldn't it have to be Aldridge? Unless they can talk them into #10 and Leonard--which wouldn't be a terrible trade in this draft.

I wouldn't think it'd be Aldridge, otherwise, Cleveland would have jumped at it.
 
I thought his negatives were below average rebounding and defense? (That and his short arms)

I would consider those areas to be drawbacks more than negatives, but that's splitting hairs. He's at least skilled and ready to play alongside LMA while Leonard develops further.

Umm...what's wrong with that? With Lillard's weak defense, I'd take a Allen or Iggy to play next to him.

It's not good value that high in the draft, though. Draft someone younger with potential and sign one of those guys as a free agent.
 
If the Blazers landed the #1 pick and drafted Noel or Len Olshey should be fired.
 
If it involved moving Batum out for Otto Porter.... now we're talking.
 
Has anyone posted about this guy Nick Minnerath yet? I saw him on a lot of team's workout lists, so I googled him, and he's got a really interesting backstory.

I've never seen him play, but from the story, I can see why teams are bringing him in for a look.

Interesting read -

Steve Finamore, a former Jackson (Mich.) Community College head coach, still keeps a one-page letter he received from a prospective recruit in 2008.

The author of the letter wanted a chance at redemption, and he was honest about his past. He'd stopped using drugs after two years of abuse and wanted to stay clean and return to school. Standing 6-foot-8, he wanted to play basketball too, wanted to play so badly that he was willing to drive from Massachusetts to Michigan just to participate at an open gym in front of the Jackson coaches.

The letter was written by Nick Minnerath, a Truro, Mass., native who has surprised by developing into an NBA prospect. The 24-year old University of Detroit graduate recently worked out for the Washington Wizards and has more workouts scheduled this week with the Detroit Pistons (Wednesday) and Boston Celtics (Thursday), but five years ago he just wanted to find a place to continue his education and further his basketball career. It wasn't an easy task. Besides Minnerath's issues with substance abuse, he'd played just one full season of high school basketball, failing off the team twice and breaking his ankle two games into his senior year.

He was trying his best to convince any junior college to take him. In addition to the letter, Finamore had received a phone call from a friend in New York who knew Minnerath's father.

"You don't owe me anything, but I'd appreciate it if you'd give this kid a chance," the friend said.

And so Minnerath drove 900 miles to Michigan. Since he was driving all the way back to Massachusetts the following morning, he had just one day to make a good impression. His footwear didn't immediately do the trick. He walked into the gym wearing Stephon Marbury sneakers, the kind that cost $15. Marbury used to wear the sneakers himself. During at least one New York Knicks practice, the sole of his shoe came straight off and Marbury had to sit out the remainder of the session. Even wearing the cheap gear, Minnerath had no such bad luck. He introduced himself to the coaching staff and then took the court. After just four possessions of the open gym, Finamore said, he decided to offer the power forward a spot on the team.

"We figured if we let him out of the gym, somebody else was going to scoop him up," Finamore said. Then he laughed. "It's not often you see a Caucasian guy fly like that."

At Jackson, Minnerath earned a scholarship to the University of Detroit, where he averaged 14.6 points and a team-leading 5.9 rebounds last season as a redshirt senior. Capable of big offensive outbursts, he scored 36 points against Valparaiso, 34 against Cleveland State and 27 against Youngstown State. He couldn't have come so far without help, but throughout this journey he's been the one controlling the steering wheel.

"It's all Nick, 99 percent, it's all Nick Minnerath," said Finamore. "I think when we're young, we don't really know much. We all make mistakes. But some people are just special, they can look at themselves and be honest, and learn, and stop screwing up. Now I feel like a dad who's watching their daughter or son get married, find a great job, buy a beautiful house."
***

For Minnerath, the term "dark days" holds at least two meanings.

The first one encompasses the two years after high school which he spent doing too many drugs. He worked minimum-wage jobs and moved farther away from reaching the dream he'd always held, the one where he becomes a professional basketball player. He can remember the days he felt disgusted by himself. He woke up one morning -- "strung out on drugs for God knows how long, about two years," he said -- and decided to get his life back together.

"I was working jobs I couldn't stand (in construction, at convenience stores and driving a taxi), and I knew I didn't want to do that for the rest of my life," he said. "One day I woke up, not even 20 years old, and thought my life was over. I knew I had to get clean. Regardless of anything else, getting clean was the priority."

He started playing pickup basketball again at a YMCA shortly after. When he dominated the competition, opponents asked him what team he played for.

"I've been on the couch for two years," he told them.


Dark days can also be used to describe the times when his favorite team, the Celtics, stunk. Minnerath is a Paul Pierce fan, even had posters on his wall as a youngster. Growing up in Cape Cod, it took him about two hours to make his way into Boston. He would buy nosebleed seats just to watch games from inside the TD Garden, then called FleetCenter. At the time Boston was in the middle of a 22-year NBA championship drought, the longest in the franchise's history. As a measure of the Celtics' ineptitude, Brett Szabo started 24 games for the team in 1996-97. After that season, he never appeared in another NBA game.

Yes, Minnerath laughed, those were dark times to be a Celtics fan.

"But it was good and bad," he said. "I used to be able to get tickets for $10."

....

http://www.masslive.com/celtics/index.ssf/2013/06/2013_nba_draft_rumors_nick_min.html

6'9", athletic, can shoot, has potential (or lacks experience, if you want to look at that way), and he looks like Macklemore and Birdman had a kid, so if nothing else, he's got that going for him -

Screen_shot_2013-02-26_at_5.11.31_PM_20130226171153_320_240.PNG


Probably undrafted, but still an interesting story to follow, even if in the D-League...
 
Probasketballdraft ‏@Probballdraft 4m
Cavs asking price for the 1st pick is at least a lottery pick, future 1st, and a prospect. #NBADraft

Sounds like a lot for a draft without an obvious potential super star
 
Probasketballdraft ‏@Probballdraft 4m
Cavs asking price for the 1st pick is at least a lottery pick, future 1st, and a prospect. #NBADraft

Sounds like a lot for a draft without an obvious potential super star

#10, Leonard and the Greek

Lottery pick
a prospectish
and a potential lottery talent
 

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