Politics Official 2016 Polls Thread

[Denny Crane]

Hiliar slipping in the polls. Snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. Democrats are freaking out.



It's a 1 point race, and Trump is 26 EVs short of an Electoral College projected victory. No Toss Up States.

Quite possible to flip:

Colorado, 9 EVs



North Carolina, 19 EV




And it'd be a done deal. 28 EVs between those two states.

Of course, the momentum can shift in Hiliar's favor as it has before. On the other hand, Trump has been underestimated since the start, and this is what a Trump victory would look like.

God help us all.

There are more states that could flip.

Nevada



Virginia

 

[Denny Crane]

I figure a thread for posting poll results as they come in, rather than posting them in assorted threads.

 

[Denny Crane]

It's all about change.


http://www.cbsnews.com/news/poll-donald-trump-hillary-clinton-tied-across-battleground-states/

Poll: Donald Trump, Hillary Clinton tied across battleground states

AZ, CO, FL, GA, IA, MI, NC, NH, NV, OH, PA, VA, WI

The race across the combined battlegrounds is as tight as can be, tied 42 percent to 42 percent.

Clinton was up one point last week, and was up two points back on Labor Day weekend. Voters in these states are still looking for change, while the partisan divide remains particularly deep.

Fifty-five percent of battleground voters want to see “big changes” in the nation’s politics and economy in the next few years. Forty-three percent want “some changes” and only 2 percent think things are fine and not in need of much change. Trump leads by a wide margin on being trusted to change Washington: Forty-seven percent trust Trump to do it, 20 percent trust that Clinton can do it. Nine percent of independents trust Clinton can change Washington. Only 47 percent of Democrats trust Clinton to change Washington. A similar 41 percent of Democrats trust neither candidate to do it.

And to Donald Trump’s voters, Trump represents that larger chance for change. By a roughly five to one margin, Trump’s voters say their support is more about “a chance to change politics as usual” (49 percent) than it is just about Trump himself, as a person, just 9 percent. And 42 percent say it is both, so the “change” component is present for almost all of Trump’s voters, in some part.

 

[Denny Crane]

 

[Denny Crane]

It wasn't too long ago the press was writing about how big a landslide for Clinton.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/poli...7dcfc4-7c23-11e6-bd86-b7bbd53d2b5d_story.html

As Trump rises in battleground states, Clinton moves to block his path to 270

 

[Denny Crane]

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box...shows-narrowing-lead-for-clinton-in-minnesota

Minnesota poll shows narrowing Clinton lead

Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton’s lead over Republican nominee Donald Trump is narrowing in Minnesota, according to a new poll.

Clinton leads Trump by 6 points, 44 percent to 38 percent, among likely voters in a Star Tribune Minnesota Poll released Sunday morning.

Her lead was 13 points, 48 percent to 35 percent, in the spring.

 

[Denny Crane]

I'm not sure what to make of this poll. I've been following it for a while. They're tracking the same few thousand people over and over. It's quite different than a random dialing kind of poll.

http://nypost.com/2016/09/18/black-voters-are-turning-from-clinton-to-trump-in-new-poll/

Black voters are turning from Clinton to Trump in new poll

Donald Trump is gaining support among African-American voters — whose enthusiasm for Hillary Clinton is eroding, a tracking poll released Saturday revealed.

Trump saw a 16.5 percentage-point increase in backing from African-American voters in a Los Angeles Times/University of Southern California tracking poll, up from 3.1 percent on Sept. 10 to 19.6 percent through Friday.

Meanwhile, the same poll showed Clinton’s support among that group plummeting from 90.4 percent on Sept. 10 to 71.4 percent.

Clinton’s nearly 20-point crash began Sunday, said Dan Schnur of USC. Sunday was the day Clinton was recorded collapsing while entering a Secret Service van at a 9/11 event.

 

[bodyman5000 and 1]

I'm not sure what to make of this poll. I've been following it for a while. They're tracking the same few thousand people over and over. It's quite different than a random dialing kind of poll.

http://nypost.com/2016/09/18/black-voters-are-turning-from-clinton-to-trump-in-new-poll/

Black voters are turning from Clinton to Trump in new poll

Donald Trump is gaining support among African-American voters — whose enthusiasm for Hillary Clinton is eroding, a tracking poll released Saturday revealed.

Trump saw a 16.5 percentage-point increase in backing from African-American voters in a Los Angeles Times/University of Southern California tracking poll, up from 3.1 percent on Sept. 10 to 19.6 percent through Friday.

Meanwhile, the same poll showed Clinton’s support among that group plummeting from 90.4 percent on Sept. 10 to 71.4 percent.

Clinton’s nearly 20-point crash began Sunday, said Dan Schnur of USC. Sunday was the day Clinton was recorded collapsing while entering a Secret Service van at a 9/11 event.

Maybe they saw his speech in Detroit, the one nobody saw or talks about.

I remember him saying he'd get them jobs, despite the minimal chance that did happen it is probably better to them than the Democrats importing Syrian refugees to their city and getting THEM jobs.

 

[bodyman5000 and 1]

http://www.detroitnews.com/story/ne...chigan-state-nation-syrian-refugees/90291798/

This isn't even a negative article, but you have to wonder why Michigan. Is it because they have near ghost towns that used to be manufacturing hubs?

 

[bodyman5000 and 1]

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box...shows-narrowing-lead-for-clinton-in-minnesota

Minnesota poll shows narrowing Clinton lead

Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton’s lead over Republican nominee Donald Trump is narrowing in Minnesota, according to a new poll.

Clinton leads Trump by 6 points, 44 percent to 38 percent, among likely voters in a Star Tribune Minnesota Poll released Sunday morning.

Her lead was 13 points, 48 percent to 35 percent, in the spring.

Read the comments, something about a festival with stabbings. Haven't heard a word about it. Hmmm

 

[bodyman5000 and 1]

Hmmmm

https://www.yahoo.com/news/police-respond-report-shooting-stabbing-mall-024409524.html

 

[Denny Crane]

http://www.newyorker.com/news/john-cassidy/the-big-question-about-donald-trumps-rise-in-the-polls

The Big Question About Donald Trump’s Rise in the Polls

Of all the opinion polls that have come out in the past few days, one in particular caught my eye. It was carried out in Michigan for the Detroit Free Press and WXYZ-TV, a Detroit station, and it showed that, in the past month, Hillary Clinton’s lead over Donald Trump in the Great Lakes State has narrowed from ten points to four points in a head-to-head matchup. “The race is tightening a lot in Michigan,” Bernie Porn, the pollster who carried out the statewide telephone survey, told the Free Press. “It may be a function of the timing of the survey and her health questions, [but] there has been a shift toward Trump. Whether it’s going to be a permanent shift is yet to be determined.”

If that line of thinking goes for Michigan, a state that hasn’t voted Republican in a Presidential contest since 1988, it also goes for much of the rest of the country. On August 10th, Hillary Clinton was leading Donald Trump by almost eight percentage points in a head-to-head match, according to the Real Clear Politics poll average. By Friday morning, the gap had narrowed to 1.5 percentage points. A poll from CBS News and the New York Times showed that Trump had pulled to within two points of Clinton among likely voters. A Fox News survey of likely voters showed Clinton leading by one point in a four-way race including two third-party candidates—Gary Johnson and Jill Stein. But the poll also showed Trump leading by one point in a head-to-head match up with Clinton.

For Clinton supporters, the narrowing in the national polls is deeply worrying, and the trends in Michigan and other battleground states, where Clinton appeared to have a formidable advantage just a few weeks ago, are even more alarming. Since the start of September, the polls have flipped in Florida, Iowa, and Ohio. It looks like they might be about to flip in North Carolina, and they are narrowing in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Virginia. If Trump carries the first four of these states and also picks up one of the others, he could well get to two hundred and seventy votes in the Electoral College.

 

[Denny Crane]

http://mobile.nytimes.com/2016/09/1...r=http://www.realclearpolitics.com/?state=nwa

Hillary Clinton Struggles to Gain Traction in Florida, Despite Spending

TAMPA, Fla. — Hillary Clinton has vastly outspent Donald J. Trump on TV ads in Florida. Her 57 campaign offices dwarf Mr. Trump’s afterthought of a ground game. And Mr. Trump is deeply unpopular among Hispanics, who account for nearly one in five Florida voters.

Despite these advantages, Mrs. Clinton is struggling in the Sunshine State, unable to assemble the coalition that gave Barack Obama two victories here, and offering Mr. Trump a broad opening in a road to the White House that not long ago seemed closed to him. Mr. Trump is pressing down hard to win the state, campaigning in Miami on Friday and in Fort Myers on Monday, after a rally in Pensacola recently.

Recent polls show Mrs. Clinton is not earning the same support among Hispanics, young people or white voters that Mr. Obama captured when he eked out a Florida victory four years ago in the country’s most hard-fought swing state.

Mrs. Clinton could afford to lose here and still find other routes to victory. Mr. Trump’s electoral map is narrower; he must have Florida in his column. But as the most populous and one of the most racially diverse battleground states, Florida is also a bellwether for the nation: a candidate’s struggles here often are mirrored elsewhere.

Polling in swing states that Mrs. Clinton once led, prompting predictions a month ago of an Election Day romp, now show Mr. Trump closing the gap or slightly ahead, including in Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Iowa and Nevada.

 

[julius]

I swear there were tons of posts like this in 2012, but instead of Trump, it was that Romney could easily win. And then there were people who pointed out 538 saying "Well, not really"...only to hear people say shit about them being biased.

Yet, they were correct...again.

So, I'll stick by Nate Silvers prediction, again.

 

[julius]

btw, my above post wasn't a shot at denny, just the overall "polls" mindset. People will pick the ones that seem to back their beliefs, despite reality.

Denny, at least here, has shown a wide variety of them.

 

[HomerLovesKoolAid]

Hmmmm....... Giant Douche or Turd Sandwich..........?

 

[bodyman5000 and 1]

Hmmmm....... Giant Douche or Turd Sandwich..........?

Which one do you think will keep this from happening here? This video seals the deal for me. I'll actually go out and vote for the orange one. Just in the off chance he's serious about stopping this.

 

[barfo]

Which one do you think will keep this from happening here? This video seals the deal for me. I'll actually go out and vote for the orange one. Just in the off chance he's serious about stopping this.

You think he's going to stop migration into the UK?

That tunnel doesn't come all the way across the atlantic, you know.

barfo

 

[barfo]

Hiliar slipping in the polls. Snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. Democrats are freaking out.

Not concerned.

It's still 7 weeks till the election. The polls will change again. And when they do, you'll stop posting them.

barfo

 

[bodyman5000 and 1]

You think he's going to stop migration into the UK?

That tunnel doesn't come all the way across the atlantic, you know.

barfo

IYI

 

[Denny Crane]

Not concerned.

It's still 7 weeks till the election. The polls will change again. And when they do, you'll stop posting them.

barfo

I'll keep posting them. They are what they are.

I've posted polls about Hiliar being up 10 points.

 

[Denny Crane]

The polls have gotten better for Trump/worse for Hiliar since this.

The godly Nate Silver.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features...-if-the-polls-still-look-like-this-in-a-week/

Election Update: Democrats Should Panic … If The Polls Still Look Like This In A Week

 

[SlyPokerDog]

 

[Denny Crane]

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/11/us/politics/11mccain.html?_r=0

A Hint of New Life to a McCain Birth Issue

In the most detailed examination yet of Senator John McCain’s eligibility to be president, a law professor at the University of Arizona has concluded that neither Mr. McCain’s birth in 1936 in the Panama Canal Zone nor the fact that his parents were American citizens is enough to satisfy the constitutional requirement that the president must be a “natural-born citizen.”

 

[Denny Crane]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/poli...d3b99a-7c54-11e6-bd86-b7bbd53d2b5d_story.html

Among Democrats, deep concern about Clinton’s Hispanic strategy


Lagging support among Hispanic voters for Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton and congressional candidates in crucial races has stoked deep concern that the party and the presidential campaign are doing too little to galvanize a key constituency.

While Clinton holds a significant lead over Republican rival Donald Trump in every poll of Hispanic voters, less clear is whether these voters will turn out in numbers that Democrats are counting on to win. Clinton trails President Obama’s 2012 performance in several Latino-rich states, including Florida, Nevada, Colorado and Arizona. In those same states, on which Democrats’ prospects of retaking the Senate hinge, some down-ballot Democrats remain unknown to many Hispanic voters.

That reality has prompted a flurry of criticism of Clinton’s and the party’s Hispanic strategies. Despite a uniquely favorable environment with Trump’s repeated attacks on undocumented immigrants, Democrats are increasingly worried that the opportunity is slipping away to meet a long-standing party goal of marshaling the nation’s growing Hispanic population into a permanent electoral force. The concerns are compounded by Trump’s recent surge in several battleground states.

 

[Denny Crane]

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

60-40 Hiliar wins. Down from 90-10.

 

[barfo]

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/11/us/politics/11mccain.html?_r=0

A Hint of New Life to a McCain Birth Issue

In the most detailed examination yet of Senator John McCain’s eligibility to be president, a law professor at the University of Arizona has concluded that neither Mr. McCain’s birth in 1936 in the Panama Canal Zone nor the fact that his parents were American citizens is enough to satisfy the constitutional requirement that the president must be a “natural-born citizen.”

I don't think McCain is too relevant anymore. Maybe Cruz?

barfo

 

[Denny Crane]

I don't think McCain is too relevant anymore. Maybe Cruz?

barfo

Birther claims about McCain. Not unique to Obama.

 

[Denny Crane]

http://www.dispatch.com/content/sto...1-republicans-rallying-for-trump-in-ohio.html

Republicans rallying for Trump in Ohio

Donald Trump’s ascension to his biggest lead of the general election campaign in Ohio is fueled by a pair of surprising sources: newfound Republican Party unity and increased voter trust.

Buried in the data of recent polls showing Trump with as much as a 5-point lead in a four-way race are indications that after months of skepticism, GOP voters are unexpectedly supporting Trump to a greater degree than Democratic voters are backing their nominee, Hillary Clinton. And the surveys also indicate Ohio voters now believe that Trump is more “honest and trustworthy” than Clinton.

Of course, the polls are all but certain to change between now and Election Day. Political surveys have proved to be especially volatile this year; one even has Clinton up 7 points in Ohio. But it’s indisputable that Trump is doing better.

Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight website says the GOP nominee has a 57 percent chance of winning Ohio. A month ago, Silver put Trump’s odds at less than 25 percent of taking America’s top bellwether state.

Even Clinton’s campaign manager, Robby Mook, noted the overall national trend in a fundraising appeal Friday: “One or two polls would be an outlier. But nearly every public poll in the past few weeks has shown Trump closing the gap.”

 

[barfo]

Birther claims about McCain. Not unique to Obama.

Except, of course, that (a) no one has ever questioned where McCain was born; (b) McCain actually wasn't born in the United States; (c) there's no conspiracy theory, only a constitutional/legal issue; (d) no current or past presidential candidate spent years talking about the issue.

Other than that, yeah, exactly the same.

barfo