Exclusive Official 2020 Draft Thread

[illmatic99]

Not the highly touted HS prospect part

Anfernee was ranked 10th in his class. Nas was ranked 2nd in that same class. https://n.rivals.com/prospect_rankings/rivals150/2018

Trent was ranked 17th.

Skal was ranked 1st.

Hampton was ranked 6th in his class. It's was really big news that he decided to go overseas instead of the NCAA.

It's definitely a trend in guys Neil goes after, after Dame/CJ anyway.

 

[Buffalo Custard]

Anfernee was ranked 10th in his class. Nas was ranked 2nd in that same class. https://n.rivals.com/prospect_rankings/rivals150/2018

Trent was ranked 17th.

Skal was ranked 1st.

Hampton was ranked 6th in his class. It's was really big news that he decided to go overseas instead of the NCAA.

It's definitely a trend in guys Neil goes after, after Dame/CJ anyway.

Odd, isn't it? He had success with Dame and CJ, then switched 180 degrees and started drafting guys nothing like them?

 

[PCmor7]

I believe Saddiq Bay was #4 in the entire NCAA in 3fg% at 45.1% shooting 5.6 3s per game. That falls into my 'lights-out' shooter category. I'd be very happy to have him available at #16 for the Blazers.

Your definitions and mine may vary. I stand by what I said, because I think there is so much more to being a lights out shooter than stats. If that's your guy, fine. I wouldn't be jumping out the basement window if he was drafted because I think he's a good player, just doesn't move the needle for me nearly as much as several other guys, and I think those other guys will be superior players to Bey 3-4 years down the road.

 

[PCmor7]

He's a very good 3 point shooter and a solid defender? Isn't that what we need?

Is it?

Is he going to be better than Ariza? Than Trent? Than Wenyen? Than Melo if he comes back?

Where are his minutes going to come from? If you aren't drafting Bey to play now, then you are drafting for upside, but there are several guys who have the makings of being better two-way players than Bey down the line, so it doesn't seem to make a lot of sense unless all the other guys you liked are gone and you can't trade the pick.

Personally, I think our most pressing needs are depth at PG and at the 4/5.

 

[42N8Bounce]

Your definitions and mine may vary. I stand by what I said, because I think there is so much more to being a lights out shooter than stats. If that's your guy, fine. I wouldn't be jumping out the basement window if he was drafted because I think he's a good player, just doesn't move the needle for me nearly as much as several other guys, and I think those other guys will be superior players to Bey 3-4 years down the road.

That's the fun part about the draft. There's so much unknown. Defining "Best Player Available" or "Skills Translatable to the NBA" are very subjective and difficult to predict.

Who are the other guys you're thinking will be available at #16 that you prefer over Bey?

(My preferences at #16 are: Vernon Carey, Saddiq Bey, Zeke Nnaji, and Jalen Smith.)

 

[Rastapopoulos]

Is it?

Is he going to be better than Ariza? Than Trent? Than Wenyen? Than Melo if he comes back?

Where are his minutes going to come from? If you aren't drafting Bey to play now, then you are drafting for upside, but there are several guys who have the makings of being better two-way players than Bey down the line, so it doesn't seem to make a lot of sense unless all the other guys you liked are gone and you can't trade the pick.

Personally, I think our most pressing needs are depth at PG and at the 4/5.

Ariza and Melo will matter, at most, for the next season. Trent can play SG at the same time Bey plays forward. So the real competition is Nas, Hoard and Wenyen, and Bey can already shoot threes way better than any of them, and likely handle the ball better, too.

 

[Rastapopoulos]

I believe Saddiq Bay was #4 in the entire NCAA in 3fg% at 45.1% shooting 5.6 3s per game. That falls into my 'lights-out' shooter category. I'd be very happy to have him available at #16 for the Blazers.

So do you rank prospects entirely by stats? What was your ranking of LAST year's draft?

 

[Rastapopoulos]

Odd, isn't it? He had success with Dame and CJ, then switched 180 degrees and started drafting guys nothing like them?

Not really: Dame and CJ were lottery picks. When you've got a lottery pick, there's strong pressure to NOT FUCK IT UP. Therefore, pick the guy with more of a track record. When you're picking lower down, you're spending less, so you can gamble more.

Olshey's (fairly) consistent strategy:

High first: pick the sure thing (Dame, CJ. Departed from this strategy with Meyers and see what happened)
Low first: gamble on the guy with a high ceiling but also fairly high bust potential (Simons, Little. Departed from this with Biggie and see what happened)
Second rounder: pick the four year college guy flying under the radar because he's not exactly a star (Connaughton, Layman)

Anomalies: Meyers (bad), Swanigan (bad), Trent (good!)

 

[42N8Bounce]

So do you rank prospects entirely by stats? What was your ranking of LAST year's draft?

I've got a program I've been working on the last few years that analyses college bb stats. It's kinda like PER, but add a lot of factors such as: age of player, win/loss of team, strength of schedule of team. It also makes adjustments to find key potential problems. For example, if a player is a good rebounder, but is very low on blocks (C Swanigan), it may indicate there is a slow foot problem. It also looks for other historical college players with similar stats and looks at their NBA success. It doesn't analyze non-college players.

Here's 2019:
1. Ja Morant
2. Zion Williamson (solid)
3. Grant Williams
4. Brandon Clarke
5. RJ Barrett
6. Coby White (risk)
7. Jarrett Culver
8. Jaylen Hands (high risk)
9. Chuma Okeke (upside)
10. Jordan Bone
11. DeAndre Hunter
12. Ty Jerome (risk)
13. Rui Hachimura (risk)
14. Bruno Fernandeo
15. PJ Washington

Of course every year there are some misses and some hidden gems. Stats can't see things like attitude, drugs, IQ, injuries, team fit....

 

[Buffalo Custard]

Not really: Dame and CJ were lottery picks. When you've got a lottery pick, there's strong pressure to NOT FUCK IT UP. Therefore, pick the guy with more of a track record. When you're picking lower down, you're spending less, so you can gamble more.

Olshey's (fairly) consistent strategy:

High first: pick the sure thing (Dame, CJ. Departed from this strategy with Meyers and see what happened)
Low first: gamble on the guy with a high ceiling but also fairly high bust potential (Simons, Little. Departed from this with Biggie and see what happened)
Second rounder: pick the four year college guy flying under the radar because he's not exactly a star (Connaughton, Layman)

Anomalies: Meyers (bad), Swanigan (bad), Trent (good!)

Where would you place Collins in this?

 

[PCmor7]

That's the fun part about the draft. There's so much unknown. Defining "Best Player Available" or "Skills Translatable to the NBA" are very subjective and difficult to predict.

Who are the other guys you're thinking will be available at #16 that you prefer over Bey?

(My preferences at #16 are: Vernon Carey, Saddiq Bey, Zeke Nnaji, and Jalen Smith.)

View attachment 33823

It'd probably easier to tell you the guys I don't like at all than the guys I like.

Guys who might be there I like at least as much as Bey ... Achiuwa, Patrick Williams, Kira Lewis, probably Jalen Smith and Josh Green. Also intrigued with Daniel Oturu. Pokusevski's a wild card whose upside I think is off the charts because of how he can handle the ball at his size.

 

[PCmor7]

Ariza and Melo will matter, at most, for the next season. Trent can play SG at the same time Bey plays forward. So the real competition is Nas, Hoard and Wenyen, and Bey can already shoot threes way better than any of them, and likely handle the ball better, too.

OK. I think you are really overrating Bey, personally, and his handle in particular, which is loose and the weakest part of his game. Judging Bey on three years against Big East competition vs. the little we've seen of Nas, Hoard and Wenyen against the best athletes in the world really underestimates the jump Bey is making, and, again, when you put Ariza and Melo in there, Trent in there, I guess you have to put Zach in there because you see Bey playing at the 4, well, I guess I could just go back to what I posted earlier, I don't think he's superior to those guys to earn minutes next year, and then when you get the year after that or 2022, some of these younger prospects are probably going to be passing him up because his ceiling is low.

Just MO.

 

[tester551]

I've got a program I've been working on the last few years that analyses college bb stats. It's kinda like PER, but add a lot of factors such as: age of player, win/loss of team, strength of schedule of team. It also makes adjustments to find key potential problems. For example, if a player is a good rebounder, but is very low on blocks (C Swanigan), it may indicate there is a slow foot problem. It also looks for other historical college players with similar stats and looks at their NBA success. It doesn't analyze non-college players.

Here's 2019:
1. Ja Morant
2. Zion Williamson (solid)
3. Grant Williams
4. Brandon Clarke
5. RJ Barrett
6. Coby White (risk)
7. Jarrett Culver
8. Jaylen Hands (high risk)
9. Chuma Okeke (upside)
10. Jordan Bone
11. DeAndre Hunter
12. Ty Jerome (risk)
13. Rui Hachimura (risk)
14. Bruno Fernandeo
15. PJ Washington

Of course every year there are some misses and some hidden gems. Stats can't see things like attitude, drugs, IQ, injuries, team fit....

So what is the list for 2020 look like?

 

[PCmor7]

I've said this before. I like the depth in this draft. There are a lot of GOOD players who can be solid rotation guys on good teams. It's going to be a matter of fit for most of them, and I don't think there are a lot of stars in this draft. I could see several guys going in the 30s in this draft turning out better than half of the lottery picks. Just a very unusual, balanced group of prospects. But I think a lot of it is going to come down to guys who find the right niche, the right coaches, the right teammates.

What's right for the Blazers depends on what they're looking for. Is the FO looking for someone to contribute in the next couple of years? Then you probably pick Bey or Smith, but I think the best avenue then is to trade the pick and acquire a vet. If you are saying we're looking at keeping this team viable post-Dame and CJ and the draft is how we're going to get those players, if Patrick Williams is available at 16, you don't hesitate to select him.

 

[42N8Bounce]

So what is the list for 2020 look like?

Stats analysis for 2020:
1. James Wiseman (solid)
2. Tyrese Haliburton (high risk)
3. Vernon Carey (solid)
4. Onyeka Okongwu (solid)
5. Obi Toppin (solid)
6. Xavier Tillman (risk)
7. Tre Jones (risk)
8. Kira Lewis (high risk)
9. Nico Mannion (solid)
10. Malachi Flynn (risk)
11. Ashton Hagans (solid)
12. Jalen Smith (solid)
13. Devin Vassell (high risk)
14. Devon Dotson (solid)
15.Isaac Okoro (risk)

Some guys later on the list with projected good up-side: Udoka Azubuike, Isaiah Stewart, Saddiq Bey, and Zeke Nnaji.

The program doesn't like Anthony Edwards. Inefficient shooter on a mediocre team. It projects him as a roll-player.

Edit: I initially entered Reggie Perry's data in incorrectly to my program (I had him initially ranked number 5). He dropped down the list. Above list updated with additional comp matching risk.

 

[tester551]

Stats analysis for 2020:
1. James Wiseman (solid)
2. Tyrese Haliburton (high risk)
3. Vernon Carey (solid)
4. Onyeka Okongwu (solid)
5. Reggie Perry
6. Obi Toppin
7. Xavier Tillman
8. Tre Jones (high risk)
9. Kira Lewis (high risk)
10. Nico Mannion
11. Malachi Flynn (high risk)
12. Ashton Hagans (high risk)
13. Jalen Smith
14. Devin Vassell
15. Devon Dotson

Some guys later on the list with projected good up-side: Udoka Azubuike, Isaiah Stewart, Saddiq Bey, and Zeke Nnaji.

The program doesn't like Anthony Edwards. Inefficient shooter on a mediocre team. It projects him as a roll-player.

How do the qualifiers work? What is 'solid' versus 'high risk' versus nothing?

I'm really high on Haliburton (don't see him as risky) and Okongwu. I think Carey is going to struggle in the NBA - so how is he solid? How are likely 2nd round picks (Flynn, Hagans) 'high risk'?

 

[42N8Bounce]

How do the qualifiers work? What is 'solid' versus 'high risk' versus nothing?

I'm really high on Haliburton (don't see him as risky) and Okongwu. I think Carey is going to struggle in the NBA - so how is he solid? How are likely 2nd round picks (Flynn, Hagans) 'high risk'?

The qualifiers are associated with finding historical similar college players and how well they faired in the NBA. The likely 2nd round picks you noted are 'high risk' picking at the location noted above. Their raw stats are good, but finding comparable successful NBA players with similar college stats was low.

 

[Rastapopoulos]

 

[Rastapopoulos]

Stats analysis for 2020:
1. James Wiseman (solid)
2. Tyrese Haliburton (high risk)
3. Vernon Carey (solid)
4. Onyeka Okongwu (solid)
5. Reggie Perry
6. Obi Toppin
7. Xavier Tillman
8. Tre Jones (high risk)
9. Kira Lewis (high risk)
10. Nico Mannion
11. Malachi Flynn (high risk)
12. Ashton Hagans (high risk)
13. Jalen Smith
14. Devin Vassell
15. Devon Dotson

Some guys later on the list with projected good up-side: Udoka Azubuike, Isaiah Stewart, Saddiq Bey, and Zeke Nnaji.

The program doesn't like Anthony Edwards. Inefficient shooter on a mediocre team. It projects him as a roll-player.

Why is Halliburton high risk?

 

[James lamphear]

I think Carey will be good in the PNR even though he more of conventional type of center. Those type still have a place in this league. Look at Whiteside and even Nurk when came in this league both are really conventional type of centers. Even though Nurk trying extend his game but his strengths is still free throw and in on offense.

 

[Hoopguru]

Is it?

Is he going to be better than Ariza? Than Trent? Than Wenyen? Than Melo if he comes back?

Where are his minutes going to come from? If you aren't drafting Bey to play now, then you are drafting for upside, but there are several guys who have the makings of being better two-way players than Bey down the line, so it doesn't seem to make a lot of sense unless all the other guys you liked are gone and you can't trade the pick.

Personally, I think our most pressing needs are depth at PG and at the 4/5.

Bey is 6’8” where Trent imo is a legit 2 guard.
Ariza is certainly a SF but Carmelo isn't quick enough to play lots of 3.
Back up pg you can get via FA market.
I wouldn't be opposed a 4/5.

 

[42N8Bounce]

Why is Halliburton high risk?

Historically players with similar playing styles in college didn't have great NBA success.

Tyrese Haliburton
6'5" (Iowa State - so - per40) 16.6 ppg, 7.0 apg (2.32 a/t), 2.7 spg, 6.4 rpg, 41.9% 3fg

Nick Calathes
6'6" (Florida - so - per40) 20.6 ppg, 7.7 apg (1.93 a/t), 2.3 spg, 6.4 rpg, 39.0% 3fg

Manny Harris
6'5" (Michigan - so - per40) 20.5 ppg, 5.3 apg (1.40 a/t), 1.5 spg, 8.2 rpg, 32.7% 3fg

Blake Stepp
6'4" (Gonzaga - so - per40) 13.8 ppg, 5.8 apg (1.81 a/t), 1.4 spg, 5.7 rpg, 35.6% 3fg

Greivis Vasquez
6'6" (Maryland - so - per40) 18.3 ppg, 7.3 apg (1.55 a/t), 1.5 spg, 5.7 rpg, 30.9% 3fg

Michael Carter-Williams
6'6" (Syracuse - so - per40) 13.5 ppg, 8.3 apg (2.13 a/t), 3.1 spg, 5.6 rpg, 29.4% 3fg

Tyrese has a better 3 point shot than these guys, and has a better a/t ratio, so my guess is he'll end up at the higher end of this success spectrum. But it does raise a flag (risk). Finding an exact match is always a challenge. No two players are exactly alike.

 

[ehizzy3]

I've got a program I've been working on the last few years that analyses college bb stats. It's kinda like PER, but add a lot of factors such as: age of player, win/loss of team, strength of schedule of team. It also makes adjustments to find key potential problems. For example, if a player is a good rebounder, but is very low on blocks (C Swanigan), it may indicate there is a slow foot problem. It also looks for other historical college players with similar stats and looks at their NBA success. It doesn't analyze non-college players.

Here's 2019:
1. Ja Morant
2. Zion Williamson (solid)
3. Grant Williams
4. Brandon Clarke
5. RJ Barrett
6. Coby White (risk)
7. Jarrett Culver
8. Jaylen Hands (high risk)
9. Chuma Okeke (upside)
10. Jordan Bone
11. DeAndre Hunter
12. Ty Jerome (risk)
13. Rui Hachimura (risk)
14. Bruno Fernandeo
15. PJ Washington

Of course every year there are some misses and some hidden gems. Stats can't see things like attitude, drugs, IQ, injuries, team fit....

wheres herro?

 

[PCmor7]

Bey is 6’8” where Trent imo is a legit 2 guard.
Ariza is certainly a SF but Carmelo isn't quick enough to play lots of 3.
Back up pg you can get via FA market.
I wouldn't be opposed a 4/5.

I'm not going to spend the night debating opinions. There are 96 minutes per game to be divided between the 3 and 4. We know Zach will play a lot at the 4, so Melo is going to see significant time at the 3. We know Trent will be on the floor some with Dame and CJ, so he'll in effect be the 3 in that lineup. If Ariza's here, he's playing a lot.

And we haven't even talked about Hood, who is the starting 3 over any of them if he's healthy.

Is Bey taking minutes from Trent because Trent is 3 inches shorter, or is Trent playing those minutes because he's better and more proven and more teams are going small so the size isn't as big an issue?

My suspicion is the latter.

Bey's probably best as a stretch 4. If you want to make the argument that he's good enough to be a rotation player backing up Collins next season, I think that has some validity. Of course, it means more Melo at the 3, or Melo and Bey basically being interchangeable as your 3 and 4.

If you can get a quality back-up PG as a free agent, you could get a quality back-up swing forward, too. Harkless, Gallinari, Jerami Grant, Bertans, Josh Jackson, Derrick Jones Jr., Furkan Korkmaz all are UFAs and only Gallinari and Mo make more than $10 mil a year right now. Do you think any of them would be a better acquisition than drafting Bey? I'd love to swing a trade for Kelly Oubre, but I don't think the Suns could be fleeced.

I hate repeating myself, but I'll say it one more time and then I am done with it: I'm not saying Bey's a bad player. He's a good player. But his value is that he's plug and play, and unless the Blazers make a lot of moves he plays a position where he's not an upgrade over the numerous players already there. If Bey's not going to play 10 minutes per game, at least, why would you draft him over Patrick Williams who has all-star or close to all-star potential, when Bey is probably a notch above Dante Cunningham over the course of his career?

Meanwhile, we still have very clear openings for a back-up PG and a back-up big. I don't see anyone in this draft who looks to be available at 16 with the possible exception of Jones from Duke who might be able to contribute quickly at either of those spots, and picking Jones at 16 would be the kind of overdraft Nolan Smith was.

I think if you are drafting, you are going big potential or you are going home. If you are looking to enhance this rotation for next season, it's going to be through a trade.

 

[42N8Bounce]

wheres herro?

Herro was at #19 on my chart. He really had a nondescript kind of year in college. Good, but nothing spectacular. In college as a freshman he averaged 14 ppg, 4.5 rpg, 2.5 apg, 35.5% 3fg. He had a mix of good NBA comps (Jamal Crawford) and some bad (Matt Carroll). His first year in the NBA Herro goes for 13.5 ppg, 4.1 rpg, 2.2 apg, 38.9% 3fg. One of those guys that elevated his game at the NBA level. Let's see if he can continue to improve his game over the next few seasons.

 

[hoopsjock]

OK. I think you are really overrating Bey, personally, and his handle in particular, which is loose and the weakest part of his game. Judging Bey on three years against Big East competition vs. the little we've seen of Nas, Hoard and Wenyen against the best athletes in the world really underestimates the jump Bey is making, and, again, when you put Ariza and Melo in there, Trent in there, I guess you have to put Zach in there because you see Bey playing at the 4, well, I guess I could just go back to what I posted earlier, I don't think he's superior to those guys to earn minutes next year, and then when you get the year after that or 2022, some of these younger prospects are probably going to be passing him up because his ceiling is low.

Just MO.

Two years

 

[Labinot41]

We need a lucky break this draft. A star nobody saw coming like Adebayo or Mitchell. Even a player half that good would be a huge boost.
Unfortunately, we are the Blazers and we never have any single luck

 

[James lamphear]

If we are healthy next year I just don't see a rookie getting rotation minutes.

 

[damianlillard]

If we are healthy next year I just don't see a rookie getting rotation minutes.

Agreed. It actually make sense to get a rookie who may not necessarily come in 100% polish but who still have a high upside. For that reason Precious Achiuwa is rising on my board. Defensively he’s a beast. He can protect the rim while also guarding 1-5 quite well. He’s a lot like Bam Adebayo on that end of the floor. Offensively is where he need to work on. His shooting form is inconsistent, he did have some shots that were beautiful. He need more repetition with consistent shooting form. He make up for it with his constant attack at the rim whether though put back, pick and roll, or attack from the high post. He flashes some passing skills so that’s also something he can build on. With that being said when I think about how much the rookies will actually play, like even Little play very little on a injury riddled blazers team last year. I would love to take a chance on Precious. He got all nba defensive potential while having an offense that could be similar to Jerami Grant if he add the shooting. If we do actually end up playing Precious during his rookie season his defense and energy will be a huge boost to this team

 

[twobullz]

Agreed. It actually make sense to get a rookie who may not necessarily come in 100% polish but who still have a high upside. For that reason Precious Achiuwa is rising on my board. Defensively he’s a beast. He can protect the rim while also guarding 1-5 quite well. He’s a lot like Bam Adebayo on that end of the floor. Offensively is where he need to work on. His shooting form is inconsistent, he did have some shots that were beautiful. He need more repetition with consistent shooting form. He make up for it with his constant attack at the rim whether though put back, pick and roll, or attack from the high post. He flashes some passing skills so that’s also something he can build on. With that being said when I think about how much the rookies will actually play, like even Little play very little on a injury riddled blazers team last year. I would love to take a chance on Precious. He got all nba defensive potential while having an offense that could be similar to Jerami Grant if he add the shooting. If we do actually end up playing Precious during his rookie season his defense and energy will be a huge boost to this team

The Blazers have done that the last three years. drafted on potential, and this year none of those three really contributed anything. Give me a player who is ready to play and can contribute rather than someone who when there contract is up we still have no idea if they will ever reach said potential.