Politics Official 2024 Presidential Election Thread

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Who will "Win?"

  • Total voters
    42
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SlyPokerDog said:
The more you demonize someone the more you can exploit them. There is only one job that illegals are coming here and TAKING away from Americans. That is drug dealer. The rest are being given to illegals. Illegals aren't walking into businesses and making employers fire their employees, employers are GIVING jobs to illegals. How many of you have had illegals show up to your house and force you to hire them to do your yardwork? No, people hire them.

Businesses purposely hire illegals because they don't have to pay workers comp, vacation, sick time, retirement, you can exploit them and make more money.
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I literally felt like kind of a "drive by spectator" to the real beginning of the immigration "issue"......and it's why I have absolutely NO faith it will ever be anywhere near resolved. In the summer of 1972 I went into the Navy on a delayed enlistment. Because my dad thought I needed to enjoy the free time I had left, he laid me off from the family business and told me to go have fun. Unfortunately, I had no funds saved. No funds = no fun. "Fortunately", a friend had a sister who boarded her horse at the LO Hunt Club. The club owners had had a hippie couple running the place, but apparently they were only willing to work for semi poverty wages, rather than full out poverty wages. This was at a time when American business was truly waking up to the huge, inexpensive labor pool to the south, so the stable owners contracted out the jobs to a Mexican family (kind of a big deal at that time) and hired my friend and I to fill in until they arrived. We were being paid barely over the minimum wage (for a hard job that only we were willing to do) but we were still more expensive than our upcoming replacements. That was the very beginning of the so called "immigration problem" and American business has been gleefully exploiting and abusing it to their financial benefit for over 50 years. Do the kind of asinine (and completely unnecessary) horseshit the Right keeps threatening to do and our entire economy will shit the bed (without any of the other moronic economic ideas the Right, has even being implemented). This is about race and racism, pure and simple. A wedge issue being whipped like a dead horse, all to keep a convicted felon out of jail. And people are just too stupid to see that.
 
UncleCliffy'sDaddy said:
I know I sit here up in my cozy corner of the US, fat, dumb and happy, but try as hard as I might (and I have truly tried), I cannot for the life of me believe the border is anywhere near the issue it has been made out to be. Immigration has been a "problem" for so many decades it can no longer be seriously labeled a problem. It's like an SNL satire. It's an "issue" to be used by politicians to keep their jobs. Trot out all the statistics you want for the past 60 years (this shit really started in the early 70's) and it's still the same basic issue, nothing more and nothing less. It's only a "problem" because our politicians want it to be. There is no real interest, intent, will or value in solving it. Tightening the boarder will only create another set of issues. As I have pointed out in the past, GW Bush, despite strong bipartisan support for reform, chose to side with his big business buddies who were not willing to give up their source of cheap labor. So he shut reform down. If the border states are truly hurting, blame Bush and his cronies. But as far as I am concerned, the so called border/immigration problem is smoke and mirrors. Just one more way white, racist America can expose it's ugly face. Any youngsters on this board will see this country dealing with the EXACT same bullshit decades from now. The only things that will change are the faces of the politicians......
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Two things that are absolute proof of what you're saying ... and there are a lot more in addition to what you posted but ...

1. If it was such a huge problem, the bipartisan bill would have been passed regardless of what Trump said. A national emergency isn't a national emergency if one person's convenience postpones the solution for 10 months.

2. Trump promising to deport immigrants that are here legally and may already be naturalized citizens, or trying to retroactively change citizenship rules that have existed since the ink on the Constitution dried. There actually were U.S. businesses that recruited Haitians to come to Pennsylvania and Ohio to work. They aren't illegals or undocumented. They aren't committing crimes and eating pets or people. They ARE paying taxes, which is great, and buying things and stimulating the economy, so this certainly isn't about overpopulation or danger. So what could it really be about?
 
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I should be watching football right now, but I was between games and working out and happened to catch a great James Carville interview on CNN with one of their junior hosts who doesn't have enough of a name for herself yet to be a commodity and asked him great questions and let him answer.

He still thinks Harris is going to win.
 
I should be watching football right now, but I was between games and working out and happened to catch a great James Carville interview on CNN with one of their junior hosts who doesn't have enough of a name for herself yet to be a commodity and asked him great questions and let him answer.

He still thinks Harris is going to win.
 
Phatguysrule said:
I just sent one away today. I literally have a no soliciting sign on my door. Specifically says we aren't interested in talking to them about politics.

And they still rang the doorbell...

I mostly don't want people coming around trying to sell me their solar panels. But the fact that the sign was up and they didn't listen just annoyed me.
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I have a sign that says that I have the last five solicitors who knocked on my door hangin on meat hooks in my basement and I NEVER get bugged.
 
illmatic99 said:
early vote started in my state today. we were in and out in 30 mins even with a decent sized line.

still incredulous that this is apparently going to be close. the polls aren't capturing this correctly i believe.

who the hell wants this dumbass back in office?
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It does make you wonder.

There were about 10 million more registered Democrats than Republicans in September.

There's a healthy quantity of never-Trumpers in that Republican number.

Harris has carved out about 4% of Trump's non-college white male voting base since 2020.

Young Americans just joining the voting ranks appear to heavily favor Harris.

Harris has what, doubled or more Trump's campaign donations and most of those are small, grassroots amounts.

Women's reproductive rights are on the ballot, literally in some of these states. There's the possibility of two or three SCOTUS seats coming up for the next president, which I have to be can't be lost on any Democrats from 2016.

Although the Dems haven't taken great advantage of messaging it, Trump was an abject failure in his first term, and even now is denigrating influential people and entire demographic groups while coming off as a deranged weirdo every time he speaks.

Sure, if Biden tanked a healthy economy after taking over for Trump, and admitting inflation hits people hard but is a product of economic recovery from COVID, I could see that being a major point for Trump, but that's not what happened. Plus, tariffs sounds great when you are 8 and don't understand macroeconomics and free trade. Sure, people don't like that Biden hasn't been able to rein in Netanyahu, but Trump's stance on the Middle East would be to wipe Palestinians off the map completely, so that shouldn't be a point in his favor. And I just don't think immigration is the kind of issue that affects the vast majority of Americans much.

Trump's mean-spirited, negative, speaks poorly, has a record of failure ....

I just look at all the above and it doesn't add up to this being as close as the polling indicates, and, I've said, polling has been very sketchy since 2016 and I think technology and individual attitudes on communication make it harder and harder to gather reliable numbers.
 
One other reason I don't trust polling anymore ...

The other day, CNN showed a poll that Taylor Swift's approval rating had dipped 18% since she endorsed Kamala Harris.

Now, I know this is unscientific, but there is no way 18% of Swift's core fans -- young women -- are picking Donald Trump over her. Just not happening.

That tells me intuitively that the people the pollsters reaching includes a large group of middle age and older men who think that Taylor is just waiting for a chance meeting with them to leave Travis Kelce.
 
illmatic99 said:
early vote started in my state today. we were in and out in 30 mins even with a decent sized line.

still incredulous that this is apparently going to be close. the polls aren't capturing this correctly i believe.

who the hell wants this dumbass back in office?
Click to expand...

I want to believe that the pollsters don't have a clue, so they are predicting a tied race so that they don't look grossly incompetent no matter who wins.

I do believe that there are a very large number of ignorant fools in this country, and most of them will vote for Trump.

Mark me down as hopeful, but not optimistic.

barfo
 
Phatguysrule said:
It seems like immigration to the US in general is a problem for you.

What are you proposing we do to replace the boomers in the workforce once we get immigration below replacement levels? We aren't having enough kids to replace them.

Also, immigrants have far lower crime rates than the US population. Even illegal immigrants. So restricting the flow of immigration actually increases crime rates in the US. Immigration keeps crime rates lower.

I'm not sure what your goal is here? What is your problem with immigration?
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unvetted/unrestricted immigration can not be the goal and that is what the Biden admin has implemented. and yes they did tighten it down 3 monthes ago, about time.

I believe in immigration, but letting anyone in and figuring out what to do with them 2 years later is not a plan.
 
PCmor7 said:
It does make you wonder.

There were about 10 million more registered Democrats than Republicans in September.

There's a healthy quantity of never-Trumpers in that Republican number.

Harris has carved out about 4% of Trump's non-college white male voting base since 2020.

Young Americans just joining the voting ranks appear to heavily favor Harris.

Harris has what, doubled or more Trump's campaign donations and most of those are small, grassroots amounts.

Women's reproductive rights are on the ballot, literally in some of these states. There's the possibility of two or three SCOTUS seats coming up for the next president, which I have to be can't be lost on any Democrats from 2016.

Although the Dems haven't taken great advantage of messaging it, Trump was an abject failure in his first term, and even now is denigrating influential people and entire demographic groups while coming off as a deranged weirdo every time he speaks.

Sure, if Biden tanked a healthy economy after taking over for Trump, and admitting inflation hits people hard but is a product of economic recovery from COVID, I could see that being a major point for Trump, but that's not what happened. Plus, tariffs sounds great when you are 8 and don't understand macroeconomics and free trade. Sure, people don't like that Biden hasn't been able to rein in Netanyahu, but Trump's stance on the Middle East would be to wipe Palestinians off the map completely, so that shouldn't be a point in his favor. And I just don't think immigration is the kind of issue that affects the vast majority of Americans much.

Trump's mean-spirited, negative, speaks poorly, has a record of failure ....

I just look at all the above and it doesn't add up to this being as close as the polling indicates, and, I've said, polling has been very sketchy since 2016 and I think technology and individual attitudes on communication make it harder and harder to gather reliable numbers.
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You make a point i want to reiterate for the ignorant folk who don't understand.

Inflation now is a direct byproduct of Covid. Especially with increased corporate greed resulting from much of the orange idiot's policies to end his first term. The fact that we didn't end up in a full blown recession is a testament to the current administration's work.

This messaging is not easy to convey in the ten second attention span people have these days unfortunately.

I am hoping there are enough people in the general populous who have at least some critical thinking ability.
 
Also, as a progressive. Harris' push to the center of late to get more R voters to her tent is frustrating. She has all but abandoned mentioning climate change, and Medicare for all, and is much more careful about bringing up gun control issues.

But this is the step to take to avoid another Trump term, so I get it.
 
illmatic99 said:
Also, as a progressive. Harris' push to the center of late to get more R voters to her tent is frustrating. She has all but abandoned mentioning climate change, and Medicare for all, and is much more careful about bringing up gun control issues.

But this is the step to take to avoid another Trump term, so I get it.
Click to expand...

Exactly. The perfect needn't be the enemy of the good, especially in this situation. And Donald Trump is much less progressive than she is; I think Harris might have become more pragmatic politically but I think she'd at least have an ear to the progressive voices in America. Trump won't.
 
PCmor7 said:
It does make you wonder.

There were about 10 million more registered Democrats than Republicans in September.

There's a healthy quantity of never-Trumpers in that Republican number.

Harris has carved out about 4% of Trump's non-college white male voting base since 2020.

Young Americans just joining the voting ranks appear to heavily favor Harris.

Harris has what, doubled or more Trump's campaign donations and most of those are small, grassroots amounts.

Women's reproductive rights are on the ballot, literally in some of these states. There's the possibility of two or three SCOTUS seats coming up for the next president, which I have to be can't be lost on any Democrats from 2016.

Although the Dems haven't taken great advantage of messaging it, Trump was an abject failure in his first term, and even now is denigrating influential people and entire demographic groups while coming off as a deranged weirdo every time he speaks.

Sure, if Biden tanked a healthy economy after taking over for Trump, and admitting inflation hits people hard but is a product of economic recovery from COVID, I could see that being a major point for Trump, but that's not what happened. Plus, tariffs sounds great when you are 8 and don't understand macroeconomics and free trade. Sure, people don't like that Biden hasn't been able to rein in Netanyahu, but Trump's stance on the Middle East would be to wipe Palestinians off the map completely, so that shouldn't be a point in his favor. And I just don't think immigration is the kind of issue that affects the vast majority of Americans much.

Trump's mean-spirited, negative, speaks poorly, has a record of failure ....

I just look at all the above and it doesn't add up to this being as close as the polling indicates, and, I've said, polling has been very sketchy since 2016 and I think technology and individual attitudes on communication make it harder and harder to gather reliable numbers.
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I agree this election is not as close as the polls indicate...........its all about the 7 swing states, total votes across the nation does not matter, it is the electrol college....race to 270.
 
Galakelife said:
I agree this election is not as close as the polls indicate...........its all about the 7 swing states, total votes across the nation does not matter, it is the electrol college....race to 270.
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I live in a swing state in the heart of Trump territory and the energy toward Trump is nothing compared to the past two presidential elections.
 
Galakelife said:
unvetted/unrestricted immigration can not be the goal and that is what the Biden admin has implemented. and yes they did tighten it down 3 monthes ago, about time.

I believe in immigration, but letting anyone in and figuring out what to do with them 2 years later is not a plan.
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I don't think anybody wants "unvetted/unrestricted immigration". But if you have their ID and their picture, fingerprints, and DNA they are documented. They are a lower risk than the general population of the US.

Processing them quickly and accurately should be the goal.

If everybody who's not a criminal can be processed quickly and documented then the only people trying to sneak in will be the criminals. Then it would be fairly trivial to watch the rest of the border and collect the criminals.

The most important part of that would be processing the people who enter legally through the checkpoints quickly and efficiently.

Taking a couple years to determine if they can stay long term seems irrelevant to me.

*Edit*
In fact, taking some time lets you evaluate if they will be able to follow the law and find employment. That seems like valuable information to have before making that decision...
 
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A person calling himself Black Insurrectionist X trended on Xitter. MAGA. Spread conspiracy theories about Harris and Walz, including story Walz sexually molested black gay high school student when he was teaching. Story traced to Russian troll farm. Amassed 300,000 readers and praise from Trump.

Turns out Black Insurrectionist X is a white guy from upstate New York. Who incidentally owes $6 million in back taxes.
 
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