Official HCP's Win Total Prediction Goes Boom Thread

[Nikolokolus]

The fact that we drafted a small school guy under the radar says Olshey has a few tricks up his sleeve...the Clippers really sucked and somehow he pried Chris Paul from New Orleans...stranger things have happened. Cap space or not...some of those big market, underachieving franchises are going to rebuild. I think this offseason is a buyers market for Portland...speaking of cap space...we rule that list by a long stretch.

A buyers' market is one in which there are few buyers and many sellers. In this instance the "sellers" are the players offering their services. So tons of teams with money to burn and only a handful of players worth spending it on is the opposite of what you are suggesting.

 

[Draco]

I don't fault Neil for signing two solid role players to bargain contracts the year before the cap goes up. Having a bench makes the difference between being a legit contender and being a perennial 7th or 8th seed.

The thing is, with Dame/CJ I don't think we were going to get in the bottom 4 of the league. There's just no competing with the Sixers, Lakers, Wolves, and Nets. They've got tanking down to a science. We needed to be significantly worse than we are, and that wasn't going to happen with the core that was in place. So unless Neil did a tear down and traded CJ from the start, I don't think Simmons was in the cards for us.

So funny you are right with the Nets.... never seen a team tank without a draft pick before.

 

[UncleCliffy'sDaddy]

Ah, I see the problem. I don't think most elite players view the NBA quite like this. Certainly they want a chance to compete for a title and nobody likes playing in a dysfunctional environment, but the reality is that the truly elite level players are brands and businesses unto themselves. A lot of these guys have entourages, and agents that push and pull them in a dozen different directions that have nothing to do with basketball. I think you are under a mistaken impression about the priorities that most of these guys have. Maybe that's overly pessimistic, but I think history is on my side.

You're right, up to a point on how some some players are self absorbed and have different priorities. It's a sad fact of life. But our current roster has none of those individuals and I think if NO and Stotts have their way, that is how it's going to stay. And if one of those types of players slips through the cracks and winds up on the Blazers, they won't last long. Even though the Jail Blazers almost made it to the finals, that team left a foul taste in my mouth. I'd rather lose with dignity and class than win with a bunch of knuckleheaded thugs. It reflects poorly on my hometown. And somehow, I don't think current Blazer management would be interested in bringing in self absorbed superstars (think LeBron, Harden, etc) who would likely try to call the shots and steer the team in the direction they want to go. With the way our team is progressing, along with the culture they are creating, I honestly don't think we'll have a problem attracting the "right kind" of free agents if we continue to stay the current course.

 

[Draco]

I want to be perfectly clear. I think this team is on a path of respectability - a plug and play team that can get you 45 wins a year in a couple of years if Vonleh develops into a 15/10 guy and a few other guys mature into veterans (Crabbe, CJ, Plumlee, etc.).

There's nothing wrong with that, but that doesn't make Portland a free agent destination and makes me worry that we're going to turn into a treadmill team that never has a chance to sniff a championship. Maybe there's a trade lurking out there that pushes us over the top, but with the way elite players are forcing their way to preferred destinations and even taking shorter deals to retain leverage, it feels like a longshot.

Its extremely rare to have a contending team that wins a championship. 97% of teams lose every year, and many of the winners are recent repeat champs. The Warriors had to wait 40 years just to get past the second round. All team building strategies are unlikely to result in a championship.

I hope like all Blazer fans the team can contend one day but it shouldn't be an all or nothing Florida Marlins type of effort. I appreciate having a fun team to root for in seasons like this even if I know we won't win the title.

There is also a horrific track record of lottery teams with top 3 picks winning titles. The Spurs are the only franchise to do it since Jordan. So I also just don't understand this belief that tanking for top picks is some sort of reliable blueprint.

 

[riverman]

A buyers' market is one in which there are few buyers and many sellers. In this instance the "sellers" are the players offering their services. So tons of teams with money to burn and only a handful of players worth spending it on is the opposite of what you are suggesting.

yeah, but a whole lot of those teams have bad GMs...notice the revolving door of coaching positions..players will have some say in where they want to go and Golden State and San Antonio can only sign so many guys...money or not.

 

[Natebishop3]

You're probably right, but the game theorist in me, would have been much happier with a 10% chance at a top 3 pick, versus a 99% chance of playing free agency musical chairs this summer and being one of the teams left standing around looking stupid, when the music stops.

I hear ya brother. In a perfect world, we maybe develop slightly slower and get that high lottery pick, but that's just not how it's playing out.

 

[riverman]

A buyers' market is one in which there are few buyers and many sellers. In this instance the "sellers" are the players offering their services. So tons of teams with money to burn and only a handful of players worth spending it on is the opposite of what you are suggesting.

My point using that analogy was more about being able to overpay bidding for a Paul George or Jimmy Butler..cap goes up but fact is we still have the most scratch in the league to deal out..to me, that's a distinct advantage

 

[Natebishop3]

My point using that analogy was more about being able to overpay bidding for a Paul George or Jimmy Butler..cap goes up but fact is we still have the most scratch in the league to deal out..to me, that's a distinct advantage

But it's not like you can offer as much as you want..... there's a ceiling, and most of the teams can hit that ceiling. It's not like we can offer more than anyone else.

 

[Draco]

But it's not like you can offer as much as you want..... there's a ceiling, and most of the teams can hit that ceiling. It's not like we can offer more than anyone else.

Yeah and Lillard's extension will kick in; CJ will be eligible for an extension that will probably be as much as Lillards. Plumlee will be eligible for an extension. Crabbe will be a restricted free agent. Perhaps we pay to keep Gerald, Harkless, or Meyers who will all be free agents. Yes we will still have some cap space but when you start adding it up not to mention max contracts being even higher we don't have as much as it first appears.

Dame, Aminu, Davis and Vonleh are the only players with more than a full season left here. Its great the team has developed so well but the downside is all their improvements will raise the cost to keep them.

I suppose Meyers is the only player who will be cheaper than expected to keep; if we even want to keep him.

 

[Nikolokolus]

yeah, but a whole lot of those teams have bad GMs...notice the revolving door of coaching positions..players will have some say in where they want to go and Golden State and San Antonio can only sign so many guys...money or not.

And what does that have to do with the Blazers gaining leverage over elite free agents?

 

[riverman]

Yeah and Lillard's extension will kick in; CJ will be eligible for an extension that will probably be as much as Lillards. Plumlee will be eligible for an extension. Crabbe will be a restricted free agent. Perhaps we pay to keep Gerald, Harkless, or Meyers who will all be free agents. Yes we will still have some cap space but when you start adding it up not to mention max contracts being even higher we don't have as much as it first appears.

Dame, Aminu, Davis and Vonleh are the only players with more than a full season left here. Its great the team has developed so well but the downside is it does cost to keep them.

agreed, but every team is facing the same dilemma...Durant, Lebron, etc...Cleveland, San Antonio, a lot of teams are going to have to pay multiple max contracts just to stand pat

 

[0-Our!]

So funny you are right with the Nets.... never seen a team tank without a draft pick before.

Yup Problem w/ Nets is Prokhorov, he played a little basketball & THINKS he knows NBA basketball but... he doesn't & I suspect he never will; I'd b willing to bet that most of us in this forum would make better decisions for the Nets vs. Prokhorov.

 

[theprunetang]

I have never been happier to see hcp fail. A high pick would be great, but you can't tell your players to stop trying. I am proud of our guys.

 

[riverman]

And what does that have to do with the Blazers gaining leverage over elite free agents?

I guess I assume players want to be in a stable organization with a lot of upside. It comes down to value systems..David West sure didn't chase a paycheck in San Antonio..players like him can afford to choose a desirable destination, they're already wealthy..which comes down to me thinking Portland is a desirable destination. Personal bias by me, but I wouldn't want to raise a family in Cleveland

 

[Draco]

Yup Problem w/ Nets is Prokhorov, he played a little basketball & THINKS he knows NBA basketball but... he doesn't & I suspect he never will; I'd b willing to bet that most of us in this forum would make better decisions for the Nets vs. Prokhorov.

Yeah you see some of this with a lot of new NBA owners or impatient aging owners. Not quite as stupid as the Nets; never seen a team trade away 5 years of unprotected picks. But the Suns, Kings, Nuggets, Knicks, Pelicans all have a bunch of problems with similarities. Heck you could even throw the Lakers in with that group in the times since Dr Buss died and his idiot son started running the team.

 

[bodyman5000 and 1]

I guess I assume players want to be in a stable organization with a lot of upside. It comes down to value systems..David West sure didn't chase a paycheck in San Antonio..players like him can afford to choose a desirable destination, they're already wealthy..which comes down to me thinking Portland is a desirable destination. Personal bias by me, but I wouldn't want to raise a family in Cleveland

If Lebron James wasn't from there he sure as hell wouldn't be playing for them right now?

Are there any 18 year old small forwards and centers living in Portland right now?

 

[0-Our!]

...The thing is, with Dame/CJ I don't think we were going to get in the bottom 4 of the league. There's just no competing with the Sixers, Lakers, Wolves, and Nets. They've got tanking down to a science. We needed to be significantly worse than we are, and that wasn't going to happen with the core that was in place...

^ part of my logic when I predicted 37 wins for us (I'm still sticking w/ that BUT hope I'm wrong & we win more! I'm not into tanking, I think we can trade assets/$ for a good pick). I am surprised the Timber Pups haven't played better/don't have a better record BUT I'm pleased!

 

[Nikolokolus]

I guess I assume players want to be in a stable organization with a lot of upside. It comes down to value systems..David West sure didn't chase a paycheck in San Antonio..players like him can afford to choose a desirable destination, they're already wealthy..which comes down to me thinking Portland is a desirable destination. Personal bias by me, but I wouldn't want to raise a family in Cleveland

The Blazers are likely to finish with a sub .500 record. Really think about that for a minute.

 

[Draco]

I have never been happier to see hcp fail. A high pick would be great, but you can't tell your players to stop trying. I am proud of our guys.

Yeah I'm gonna root for the team when they're playing; and when the seasons over I'm gonna hope we have the best draft pick we can have. No sense in worrying about a pick now. We are starting a 20 year old who wouldn't be getting a single minute on a contender and didn't acquire any win now veterans so I have nothing but pleasant surprise with the success the team is having.

 

[Draco]

The Blazers are likely to finish with a sub .500 record. Really think about that for a minute.

I agree with the highlighted part of his statement. Its more telling of your attitude and perception.

 

[riverman]

The Blazers are likely to finish with a sub .500 record. Really think about that for a minute.

Half the board thinks about it everyday here, somebody has to balance the scales...see HCPs prediction thread..it's all there

 

[0-Our!]

...Lakers... in the times since Dr Buss died and his idiot son started running the team.

Kupchak...

 

[tlongII]

I thought we would be a lot worse than we are. And I want that draft pick. I can't help but root for these guys though!

 

[Nikolokolus]

I agree with the highlighted part of his statement. Its more telling of your attitude and perception.

With respect to @riverman's comment about the blazers being a desirable landing spot for free agents, what does it say about my attitude? Please enlighten me.

 

[Draco]

With respect to @riverman's comment about the blazers being a desirable landing spot for free agents, what does it say about my attitude? Please enlighten me.

Riverman stated stability and upside could be a draw to free agents. We've seen evidence of Neil acquiring valuable free agents before. We have a stable management team and a respected owner. We have young popular all star level players. His statements are two very valid statements to a casual informed observer.

Your reply predicts the Blazers losing more games than they win the rest of the year, and any free agent draw is less than Riverman implies. The tone of your reply implies its obvious to a reader of his statement; while I suspect fans and analysts would have a very different perception from you.

I believe the majority of observers would read your attitude as overly negative, critical, and pessimistic.

 

[Nikolokolus]

Riverman stated stability and upside could be a draw to free agents. We've seen evidence of Neil acquiring valuable free agents before. We have a stable management team and a respected owner. We have young popular all star level players. His statements are two very valid statements to a casual informed observer.

Your reply predicts the Blazers losing more games than they win the rest of the year, and any free agent draw is less than Riverman implies. The tone of your reply implies its obvious to a reader of his statement; while I suspect fans and analysts would have a very different perception from you.

I believe the majority of observers would read your attitude as overly negative, critical, and pessimistic.

I'm always critical and I do my best not to sugarcoat what I say. If you don't like it, put me on ignore.

As for "valuable free agents" What I'm talking about aren't the sloppy seconds and role-players, but the dyed-in-the-wool, bonafide, ass kicking elite players of the NBA - which the Blazers probably need one more of to have any serious hopes of competing for a championship in the next 4-5 years before Lillard peaks and declines.

 

[Draco]

I'm always critical and I do my best not to sugarcoat what I say. If you don't like it, put me on ignore.

As for "valuable free agents" What I'm talking about aren't the sloppy seconds and role-players, but the dyed-in-the-wool, bonafide, ass kicking elite players of the NBA - which the Blazers probably need one more of to have any serious hopes of competing for a championship in the next 4-5 years before Lillard peaks and declines.

Who was the Spurs, Mavs, Lakers, Celtics, or Pistons "elite" free agent they acquired to win a title? Thats 5 of the last 7 champs who didn't win by bring in an "elite" free agent to win a title. The Heat are the only team to do it recently and perhaps the Warriors if you consider Iggy that stud free agent; although I'd argue they were primarily a contending team from the other players they had.

So no I disagree with your "any serious hopes" statement being predicated entirely on the Blazers bringing in an "elite" free agent. Again its an example of you're overly negative pessimistic unrealistic simple approach to evaluating a team. I suppose that's you're shtick but I just thought I'd point out to me and I believe most balanced informed observers it seems to be a ludicrous way to evaluate a franchise.

 

[Wizard Mentor]

I hear ya brother. In a perfect world, we maybe develop slightly slower and get that high lottery pick, but that's just not how it's playing out.

In a better than perfect world, we already have like 8 lottery picks with upside.
Oh wait....

 

[PtldPlatypus]

Who was the Spurs, Mavs, Lakers, Celtics, or Pistons "elite" free agent they acquired to win a title? Thats 5 of the last 7 champs who didn't win by bring in an "elite" free agent to win a title. The Heat are the only team to do it recently and perhaps the Warriors if you consider Iggy that stud free agent; although I'd argue they were primarily a contending team from the other players they had.

So no I disagree with your "any serious hopes" statement being predicated entirely on the Blazers bringing in an "elite" free agent. Again its an example of you're overly negative pessimistic unrealistic simple approach to evaluating a team. I suppose that's you're shtick but I just thought I'd point out to me and I believe most balanced informed observers it seems to be a ludicrous way to evaluate a franchise.

Spurs, Mavs, Lakers, and Celtics had a hall-of-famer that they had drafted. If one doesn't believe Dame to be on the same level as those superstars, then the next logical step is that we must draft, sign, or trade for a hall-of-famer in order to be a title team. I presume Nik falls into that category.

 

[Nikolokolus]

Who was the Spurs, Mavs, Lakers, Celtics, or Pistons "elite" free agent they acquired to win a title? Thats 5 of the last 7 champs who didn't win by bring in an "elite" free agent to win a title. The Heat are the only team to do it recently and perhaps the Warriors if you consider Iggy that stud free agent; although I'd argue they were primarily a contending team from the other players they had.

So no I disagree with your "any serious hopes" statement being predicated entirely on the Blazers bringing in an "elite" free agent. Again its an example of you're overly negative pessimistic unrealistic simple approach to evaluating a team. I suppose that's you're shtick but I just thought I'd point out to me and I believe most balanced informed observers it seems to be a ludicrous way to evaluate a franchise.

Which is why I advocated tanking all along, but since it appears the Blazers can't even do that right, we're left with less savory options.