Official Tom Dundon Prediction Thread!

[Stevenson]

OK boys and girls, we're about three weeks out (March 31) from our long-awaited, much-desired, frightening-for-some, much ballyhooed, change of ownership. Sad to see the Paul Allen era end, thrilled to see the Jody Allen era end. But what does the Tom Dundon era portend? Vote here and share your predictions!

 

[Stevenson]

Me? I think Splitter is toast, and hopefully Dundon doubles down on the young promising core we have. That would be my desire. I think Cronin has earned at least another year.

 

[riverman]

Coach always bites the first bullet, especially an interim coach.

 

[Everything Beagle]

He’s going to throw everything out and tank next year, just in time for the rules change to get the team embroiled in a controversy. Silver will bring the hammer down hard, making the least relevant team in the NBA an example for other teams to avoid (San Antonio will sit Wemby all year with a hangnail and get the #1 pick again, but that not in the scope of this thread).

Grant, RWIII, Jrue, Scoot, Thybulle will all be gone. Deni will never play at even 50% strength again, and will eventually be traded at the deadline for picks. He will miraculously recover after being traded.

Our core for 2027 will include Donovan Clingan, Shaedon Sharpe, Damian Lillard, Sidy Cissoko, Toumani Camara, and Caleb Love. During the expansion draft, Lillard won’t be protected, and will end up in Seattle with Durant. They will make the playoffs. Portland will not.

 

[GrandpaBlaze]

From a jaded fan perspective, the only two on my definitely keep list are Deni and Clingan. Lillard is a gimme as he has a no-trade clause. Camara is likely a keep but everyone else is relatively replaceable (preferably replaced).

 

[julius]

Does nothing major.

Why would he?

The a new coach isn't going to all the sudden improve their 3 point shooting. A new coach isn't going to all the sudden make injuries go away, or Scoot not sucking, or Murray not being inept, or fast forward Yang 3 years.

Nor will a new GM do any of that.

And considering this team has been hit hard by injuries (and fans tend to have stupid unrealistic expectations), I think the coaching staff hasn't done that bad. And the same GM staff that created a scouting team (which the team was sorely lacking from before), traded for Deni, Tou and was able to get a decent haul for Damian (in as much as future picks)...why would he just can everyone?

If he was going to do that, the team would've already let Cronin go after the trade deadline. It makes ZERO sense for the team to keep Cronin if they're just going to can him come next month when Dundon (etc) takes over as owner(s) of the team.

I'm willing to bet the guy who spent billions of dollars isn't a knee jerk idiot like a lot of fans are.

 

[SlyPokerDog]

He causes some minor drama after the Blazers win the championship next season and gives Mrs. @THE HCP a championship ring, but not @THE HCP.

 

[julius]

For those who say he's going to fire the GM, what GM out there would want to work for a guy who just fired the guy who fixed the books, cleaned the roster from a lot of Olsheys clusterfuck, created a LOT of draft capitol that they were sorely lacking, was able to get a draft expert on his team, several other sought after people to join the team and drafted a player who in his 2nd year is already considered among the best of his draft class (and a LOT better than most of us thought he would be)?

I'd say the hits on DC, Tou and Deni out weigh the perceived negatives on Scoot and Yang (which it's stupid early to know that about Yang).

And adding Schmitz and Serge were huge for a franchise that had nothing in the way of international scouting or draft gurus.

WHY would any GM with any dignity see that and think "oh yeah, I totally want to go there! Stable city, baby!"


And what coach, next year, is going to improve on all of the things this team sucks at?

 

[MickZagger]

I think if he was decent guy he’d keep Splitter on as an assistant after he hires Thibs

 

[Cugel]

He must have a number of people advising him. They will have a plan of some sort. In other words, i have no idea what will happen

 

[Stevenson]

For those who say he's going to fire the GM, what GM out there would want to work for a guy who just fired the guy who fixed the books, cleaned the roster from a lot of Olsheys clusterfuck, created a LOT of draft capitol that they were sorely lacking, was able to get a draft expert on his team, several other sought after people to join the team and drafted a player who in his 2nd year is already considered among the best of his draft class (and a LOT better than most of us thought he would be)?

I'd say the hits on DC, Tou and Deni out weigh the perceived negatives on Scoot and Yang (which it's stupid early to know that about Yang).

And adding Schmitz and Serge were huge for a franchise that had nothing in the way of international scouting or draft gurus.

WHY would any GM with any dignity see that and think "oh yeah, I totally want to go there! Stable city, baby!"


And what coach, next year, is going to improve on all of the things this team sucks at?

Uh, to get one of the only 31
GM jobs like this in the world?

 

[julius]

Uh, to get one of the only 31
GM jobs like this in the world?

31?

 

[Hoopguru]

Im thinking Cronin will be replaced. Tom is plugged into Mark Cuban as an consultant, so maybe a Steve Nash or Dirk as a GM.

 

[wizenheimer]

For those who say he's going to fire the GM, what GM out there would want to work for a guy who just fired the guy who fixed the books, cleaned the roster from a lot of Olsheys clusterfuck, created a LOT of draft capitol that they were sorely lacking, was able to get a draft expert on his team, several other sought after people to join the team and drafted a player who in his 2nd year is already considered among the best of his draft class (and a LOT better than most of us thought he would be)?

I'd say the hits on DC, Tou and Deni out weigh the perceived negatives on Scoot and Yang (which it's stupid early to know that about Yang).

And adding Schmitz and Serge were huge for a franchise that had nothing in the way of international scouting or draft gurus.

WHY would any GM with any dignity see that and think "oh yeah, I totally want to go there! Stable city, baby!"


And what coach, next year, is going to improve on all of the things this team sucks at?

wut?

* so, Cronin took over a team that had a 42-30 record the season before; the 82 game equivalent of a 48-34 record
* he's been on the job for more than 4 years and his teams have a 147-245 record
* he's had 4 drafts with 3 top-7 picks; 4 lottery picks; 5 first round picks; and four 2nd's....
* he's had 4 off-seasons
* he's had 5 trade deadlines

And after all that time, and all those opportunities; and after he came out and explicitly said this season was "winning time now", his team, the 13th most expensive roster with the 20th best record and a payroll only 700K below the tax line....that team is 4 games under .500 with only 18 games left in the season.

and what?....you're asking if a new owner might look at that without actually considering the possibility of firing the architect of that situation?

 

[julius]

wut?

* so, Cronin took over a team that had a 42-30 record the season before; the 82 game equivalent of a 48-34 record
* he's been on the job for more than 4 years and his teams have a 147-245 record
* he's had 4 drafts with 3 top-7 picks; 4 lottery picks; 5 first round picks; and four 2nd's....
* he's had 4 off-seasons
* he's had 5 trade deadlines

And after all that time, and all those opportunities; and after he came out and explicitly said this season was "winning time now", his team, the 13th most expensive roster with the 20th best record and a payroll only 700K below the tax line....that team is 4 games under .500 with only 18 games left in the season.

and what?....you're asking if a new owner might look at that without actually considering the possibility of firing the architect of that situation?

Olshey was fired in December of 21, they were 11-12.

The team purposely tanked because they needed to clear the roster of dead weight and bad contracts.
I don't think you understand how a rebuild works, or full accept when it started.

The full on rebuild started the second CJ was traded. the 22 season only had Damian for 29 games too.

Then it was sped up when they traded Damian after the 23 season.

What direction are they trending now, and why?

 

[PDXFonz]

I voted Other

I predict a whole lot of nothing for quite a while. I don’t think new ownership is going to come in and shake things up. Rather observe and take some time to contemplate possibilities before we actually see any changes come about.

 

[kjironman1]

I see no choice that is not possible in that poll.

 

[wizenheimer]

Olshey was fired in December of 21, they were 11-12.

The team purposely tanked because they needed to clear the roster of dead weight and bad contracts.
I don't think you understand how a rebuild works, or full accept when it started.

The full on rebuild started the second CJ was traded. the 22 season only had Damian for 29 games too.

Then it was sped up when they traded Damian after the 23 season.

What direction are they trending now, and why?

do you really think that Dundon won't consider firing Cronin for fear no other GM candidate would be willing to take the job after Cronin was fired?



Cronin has been GM for 51 months. Around 4.5 seasons. Long in the tooth. Now he's a survivor....he's been with the Blazers for 19 years so maybe he'll find a way to survive the change in ownership

personally, I don't think he's done much to warrant keeping his job. Like I said, 51 months on the job and his team ranks 13th in payroll, 20th in record, and is 4 games under .500

the bottom of the NBA standing's in Cronin's first season:



Portland has been lapped by 4 of those 5 teams, and if you account for Indiana in the finals last year, arguably the Blazers have been lapped by all 5 teams.

the records at the end of Cronin's 2nd season don't make the picture better either:



it just adds the Spurs to the mix of teams that have lapped Cronin's teams

and yeah, I know, all kinds of ways to argue why those snapshots in time aren't 'fair'. But I had to suffer thru 6-7 years of excuses why Olshey shouldn't be fired so I'm out of patience with being patient

 

[Five Second Violation]

He immediately loses credibility if he keeps Cronin.

Bear in mind that Cronin was also here throughout Olshey's pillaging of the franchise, and a true GM search was never even conducted when One Life to Live got let go.

Joe's had 4-5 years (plus the 9 before that) to impact the roster and the reality is that it's not even an inch closer to contending in the foreseeable future than it was when he took over. And to any outsider with a fresh perspective, that has to be viewed as unacceptable. We've been a mediocre franchise in a major rut. Enough is enough. It's time to distance ourselves completely from the Olshey/Cronin/Kolde clown show and move forward into a completely new and hopefully better era.

 

[julius]

Gee, I can't imagine what San Antonio did to lap Portland. Whatever could've happened to the Spurs to pass Portland....someone, please let me know, I'm at a loss. Also, San Antonio is in their 7th year of their rebuild.

Or Why Orlando, who got the #1 pick in that time and also hasn't really ascended as much as they should have. They went from 21 to 22, 34 and then 47 wins and then down to 41 last year and at a worse pace than they were when they won 47 games this year. They are also in year *6* of their rebuild.


Detroit got the #1 pick (5 years ago) and has been rebuilding for what seemed like forever. They also have had a few misses in the draft, but got Duren who has blossomed into something great. And while Portland could've drafted him, it's not like Shaedon has been a busy like Johnny Davis was.

Charlotte is *barely* ahead of Portland and hasn't had near the injuries issues Portland has had. AND they've had 2 (counting this season) winning seasons in 10 years.

My point is, Portland is in their realistic 3rd year of a rebuild. 4th at the most. The only one that is doing better in that same time span (4 years, not the last 4 years) are teams that had a generational talent fall into their lap (Spurs) or waited longer to get to their place than Portland fans seems to think is reasonable.

The difference between Cronin and Olshey is that Olshey didn't have a system or a game plan. He figured as long as he could milk Damian and CJ during the regular season, that was good enough. Olshey gutted the team to trade for mediocre players that didn't make sense, they're *still* having to deal with a 1st round pick owed to Chicago for a stupid trade, he's the one who messed up their books big time, and pretty much shit the bed.

I'm not saying Cronin is perfect, but it's not like the team isn't showing improvement (injuries aside) or has a point to why they've drafted for or traded for players.
And let's be real, the "because I can make this trade up in my head" doesn't qualify for an actual trade scenario that Joe passed up on.

 

[kjironman1]

Atlanta just got a #1 couple years ago also.

 

[Hoopguru]

Weiterleitungshinweis

He does have a record of how he approached his hockey team purchase. He's a hands on owner. Does'nt mean he will take the same approach with the blazers, however it looks like he rather spend money on players to win soon, through cutting cost in other places. He will want to maximize his returns as a percentage of cost of doing business. In Portland.

 

[GrandpaBlaze]

While Cronin has had some decent moves, I also see wasted options. Scoot vs. options. Yang? Please.

Tanking and then taking "hype" picks instead of more realistic picks makes me feel like we are heading down the Sacramento Kings path of regularly blowing their draft picks.

Yes, he had to undo some Olshey crap but not really sure he has done much to keep around.

 

[Hoopguru]

He made his initial fortune by providing something in high demand, credit at high interest for rides. In a since, his scenarios with the hockey team and now blazers are similar in that both pro teams are small markets and State, City, Fans dont want to risk losing them.

 

[julius]

Atlanta just got a #1 couple years ago also.

They got the #1 pick as a team that was in the play-in. That by default means they're in a better place than a team that was bottom 5 of the league.

 

[wizenheimer]

Gee, I can't imagine what San Antonio did to lap Portland. Whatever could've happened to the Spurs to pass Portland....someone, please let me know, I'm at a loss. Also, San Antonio is in their 7th year of their rebuild.

Or Why Orlando, who got the #1 pick in that time and also hasn't really ascended as much as they should have. They went from 21 to 22, 34 and then 47 wins and then down to 41 last year and at a worse pace than they were when they won 47 games this year. They are also in year *6* of their rebuild.


Detroit got the #1 pick (5 years ago) and has been rebuilding for what seemed like forever. They also have had a few misses in the draft, but got Duren who has blossomed into something great. And while Portland could've drafted him, it's not like Shaedon has been a busy like Johnny Davis was.

Charlotte is *barely* ahead of Portland and hasn't had near the injuries issues Portland has had. AND they've had 2 (counting this season) winning seasons in 10 years.

My point is, Portland is in their realistic 3rd year of a rebuild. 4th at the most. The only one that is doing better in that same time span (4 years, not the last 4 years) are teams that had a generational talent fall into their lap (Spurs) or waited longer to get to their place than Portland fans seems to think is reasonable.

The difference between Cronin and Olshey is that Olshey didn't have a system or a game plan. He figured as long as he could milk Damian and CJ during the regular season, that was good enough. Olshey gutted the team to trade for mediocre players that didn't make sense, they're *still* having to deal with a 1st round pick owed to Chicago for a stupid trade, he's the one who messed up their books big time, and pretty much shit the bed.

I'm not saying Cronin is perfect, but it's not like the team isn't showing improvement (injuries aside) or has a point to why they've drafted for or traded for players.
And let's be real, the "because I can make this trade up in my head" doesn't qualify for an actual trade scenario that Joe passed up on.

like I said, the type of responses and arguments you're making here are the same as those made by Olshey supporters, for years. Bones and HJ were two of Oshey's biggest fans and they always had excuses for why Olshey's teams weren't doing better

I detested Olshey and the 'be patient and wait till-next-year' bullshit his fans always pushed

I don't even dislike Cronin. He's not incompetent and a pompous douchebag like Olshey was. Yeah, I called Cronin competent, but that's a low bar. I think he's an average GM; a treadmill GM. And I think the Blazers need, at minimum, a good to elite GM if they want to climb off the treadmill they are on.

 

[Strenuus]

Its not even a discussion.

Cronin has to go. Theres no argument otherwise unless you like bad teams.

 

[Chris Craig]

Splitter will go back to the bench, unless the new coach wants his own guys.

Cronin's days are likely numbered, though Dundon might keep around a bit longer. He may also want to clean house and put in his own choice of GM.

Dundon will try and have Grant and maybe Jrues contracts moved. Grant may again, get no takers.

Dundon, make trade some younger players like Sharpe to bring in better fits or to put together a more experienced roster.

Exciting

 

[crandc]

A big none of us have any idea.

 

[THE HCP]

Its not even a discussion.

Cronin has to go. Theres no argument otherwise unless you like bad teams.

So ANYBODY else would do better? Kinda like Stotts…..ANYBODY is better? Thats a foolish take.