Oregon Ducks 2023! (1 Viewer)

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Tince said:
Exactly...

In the new format, #11 would play at #6's home stadium. The winner of that would play #3.

With QB's getting hurt or discovering the backup is actually better, it's not crazy to think a team could lose 2 games by October, effectively bumping them down the rankings a bit, but they're actually good.

Had Bama lost to Auburn two weeks ago (they should've), they would've been a 10-11 seed. You can't me that this Bama roster couldn't give Washington/Texas a game.
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We're gonna find out most likely.
 
Tince said:
You don't think an 11 seed upsetting a 2 seed would impact the playoff? I'm real confused at what the bigger point you're trying to make is.
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I don't think an 11 seed is going to upset a 2 seed after late November (barring injuries/personnel changes). And if that happens the 2 seed didn't deserve it and would have likely lost the next round anyway.

You'll have well tested, great teams playing each other in national championship games. And even the 2nd round the vast majority of seasons.

The point I'm making is the 4 team playoff never should have been a thing. We've all been missing out, and now with the loss of the PAC it might never be as good as it could have been.
 
Phatguysrule said:
It's crazy. I remember worrying when we didn't know who'd take over for our QB.

Now, I'm not even worried. I just know Lanning and Co will go land one.
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But our team took such a big hit because we lost. We will never recover. Ever.

Yes, people believe that. Lol.
 
Phatguysrule said:
I don't think an 11 seed is going to upset a 2 seed after late November (barring injuries/personnel changes). And if that happens the 2 seed didn't deserve it and would have likely lost the next round anyway.

You'll have well tested, great teams playing each other in national championship games. And even the 2nd round the vast majority of seasons.

The point I'm making is the 4 team playoff never should have been a thing. We've all been missing out, and now with the loss of the PAC it might never be as good as it could have been.
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Of the established ways to determine a national championship, here is how I rank them from best to worst:
  1. 12 team playoff determined by committee
  2. 4 team playoff determinted by committee
  3. 2 team BCS determined by compueters
  4. No head to head of the best team(s) and a vote by the coaches/media
 
Tince said:
Of the established ways to determine a national championship, here is how I rank them from best to worst:
  1. 12 team playoff determined by committee
  2. 4 team playoff determinted by committee
  3. 2 team BCS determined by compueters
  4. No head to head of the best team(s) and a vote by the coaches/media
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I would agree, except that for me "12 Team playoff with PAC" is so far above any that the next two are basically the same to me.

The "No Head to Head" was just idiotic.
 
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Figured here was as good as place as any, how is Marvin Harrison Jr. a heisman finalist, when statistically(STATISTICALLY), theres 3 other WRs better than his season? Seems kind of lame, all off of reputation. Nabers had a better season. Franklin had a better season, and Odunze had a better season. I don't get it. I mean, I do, but I don't.
 
Natebishop3 said:
Do we really want a guy who only has one year? I liked that Bo had two years left and Penix gave Washington two years. Seems sketchy to only have one year.
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Best case scenario, you'd land a heisman guy with 4 years of eligibility, but I'm not sure who that is.

I think the question is, do the Ducks want to take a swing on a guy like Moore, who could hit for 2 years or totally miss, and go 8-4 next year, then hit the portal again next year. Or, do they feel they have a roster that can compete for a top 12 spot next year.

If the 4 year Heisman guy isn't an option, I think I'd pick the really good QB with one year over the risk. Of course, some of this comes down to how much money each of them would demand and how that would impact the roster building elsewhere.
 
Tince said:
Best case scenario, you'd land a heisman guy with 4 years of eligibility, but I'm not sure who that is.

I think the question is, do the Ducks want to take a swing on a guy like Moore, who could hit for 2 years or totally miss, and go 8-4 next year, then hit the portal again next year. Or, do they feel they have a roster that can compete for a top 12 spot next year.

If the 4 year Heisman guy isn't an option, I think I'd pick the really good QB with one year over the risk. Of course, some of this comes down to how much money each of them would demand and how that would impact the roster building elsewhere.
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Could they get Moore AND Gabriel? Start Gabriel and have Donta redshirt next year? (Can they redshirt even though they played their true freshman year?)
 
Natebishop3 said:
Could they get Moore AND Gabriel? Start Gabriel and have Donta redshirt next year? (Can they redshirt even though they played their true freshman year?)
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reportedly, that's what the Ducks are working on; getting both. Will be a really tough needle to thread though
 
Autzen Audibles guys were saying you get the QB first and then you go after a top tier WR who wants to play with that QB. So if we got Gabriel that could be a huge asset for recruiting the portal.
 
Natebishop3 said:
Could they get Moore AND Gabriel? Start Gabriel and have Donta redshirt next year? (Can they redshirt even though they played their true freshman year?)
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I've seen the idea thrown around, but given that they do have a fixed budget for NIL (more or less), I'm not sure dropping 33-50% of the budget on the QB position would be wise. It's hard to know exactly what these guys are going to get, but I'd assume Gabriel is in the $1.0-1.5m range and more is in the $750-1.0m range. They're going to want to attack the DL, secondary, and receiver room as well. Not to mention, take a swing for an elite LB, TE, or kicker shows interest. And they've got to pay for the 2024 class while giving bumps to current players who are getting calls from other teams.

From what I've been told, it's a far more complicated juggling act than some might assume.
 
Natebishop3 said:
Autzen Audibles guys were saying you get the QB first and then you go after a top tier WR who wants to play with that QB. So if we got Gabriel that could be a huge asset for recruiting the portal.
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That makes sense. WRs are going to want to know where they can get paid the most and if they'll have QBs that can make them look good. Looks like Washington is going to get a nice fit in Rogers and WRs are going to be real tempted to play in that system.
 
Natebishop3 said:
Could they get Moore AND Gabriel? Start Gabriel and have Donta redshirt next year? (Can they redshirt even though they played their true freshman year?)
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To answer your question about redshirting:

Yes, a player can redshirt one time at any point in their career. In your scenario, Moore could play in 4 regular season games and the post-season while maintaining his reshirt in 2024. At that point he would technically have 3 years of eligibility, though if he had a great 2025 season, he could declare for the draft as a redshirt soph.
 
Natebishop3 said:
Depends on who you ask. Some people I listen to think Cam Ward is a better QB.
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Ward put up lesser numbers on a worse team. Are we assuming that Ward faced better defenses, or simply that Gabriel had better pieces around him?
 
Tince said:
I've seen the idea thrown around, but given that they do have a fixed budget for NIL (more or less), I'm not sure dropping 33-50% of the budget on the QB position would be wise. It's hard to know exactly what these guys are going to get, but I'd assume Gabriel is in the $1.0-1.5m range and more is in the $750-1.0m range. They're going to want to attack the DL, secondary, and receiver room as well. Not to mention, take a swing for an elite LB, TE, or kicker shows interest. And they've got to pay for the 2024 class while giving bumps to current players who are getting calls from other teams.

From what I've been told, it's a far more complicated juggling act than some might assume.
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for sure it's a juggling act

clearly though, by far the most important position in college football is QB. A team can't become elite without high quality QB performance. So, it's pretty easy to justify a sizable chunk of the NIL budget going to a proven, quality QB. The other side of that is that NIL and the transfer portal has completely changed how teams, especially good teams, base their decisions on filling their QB units. There will be really good QB's entering the portal every year (and keep in mind there are two portals; one in December and one in the spring). I'm not sure if teams will be patient any more in developing young players that don't perform well, and show a lot, right away. And by perform well, I mean the ability to read defenses, go thru progressions, and minimize mistakes

UCLA decided it couldn't afford more than about 3-4 games with Dante Moore as the starter, so they benched him and now Moore is in the portal

a program having a 4-year starter at QB, like Justin Herbert, is going to be extremely rare going forward
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from the Athletic:

upload_2023-12-5_9-44-0.png

I'm not sure if the Day 1 numbers + the other 29 days of the portal will track last season. But if there was a 44% increase in day 1 entries, it's notable that over 2100 players entered last year's portal. If it tracks, that could mean nearly 3000 players entering this December....yeeeeesh
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anyway, we know the big NIL bucks are headed to QB's. It would be interesting to know what positions after QB are the best paid:

* I'm assuming WR's are a little higher on the food chain than RB's

* OT's, especially LT's and maybe C's might be as valuable as WR's. For left-handed QB's (like Dillon Gabriel), RT's might be critical

* my guess is that elite edge rushers and CB's might be competing for the 2nd most NIL money. Oregon played it's best this season when Dorlus and Burch were on the edges while Khyree Jackson and Jahlil Florence were healthy at the corners. In the CCG, Burch only played half of the first Q, Florence didn't even travel, and Jackson was hobbled
 
comparing Gabriel to Ward:

Gabriel certainly put up better numbers on much better efficiency:

for passing...

Ward:

upload_2023-12-5_10-10-29.png

Gabriel:

upload_2023-12-5_10-11-56.png

and, for rushing....

Ward:

upload_2023-12-5_10-12-54.png

Gabriel:

upload_2023-12-5_10-15-2.png

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I haven't heard anything from my 'source' about how Oregon views Gabriel vs Ward. I do know that the Duck coaches really liked that Bo Nix played all the snaps he did with a minimum of mistakes. QB mistakes can really kill a team, much like Ward's mistakes against Oregon last season killed the Cougars

my hunches:

* Oregon has Gabriel as the #1 want; Ward may not even be 2nd or 3rd

* Oregon has weighted Gabriel's 4.8 TD/Int ratio vs Ward at 3.0 and found Ward wanting

* I think there's some significant hidden meaning in the rushing numbers. Ward has been sacked, a lot. Now, one way to look at it is he had worse OLines and he was trying to make plays. But another way to look at it is that Ward was too slow in completing his reads and ended with indecision, causing many of those sacks. Meanwhile Gabriel moved quicker thru his progressions and was more decisive in either running or throwing the ball away and living to play another down

when Ward was on he played at an elite level. When he wasn't he was often awful. And when he went into awful mode it wasn't for 2 or 3 quarters, it was for 2 or 3 or 4 games
 
Oregon Trikweze Bridges has entered the portal. That's the first significant departure, assuming he does depart
 
tOSU guys talk about Gabriel & Oregon



I think this will take a while and I don't think Oregon is anywhere close to a lock for landing Gabriel
 
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